Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview-Turkish Airlines (European Package)

OVERVIEW

This is the first leg of the “Final Series” for the Race to Dubai, which means a little bit more incentive for the guys near the top as well as those outside the Top 70 to try to qualify for next week’s Nedbank Golf Challenge. This week there are 78 players in the field, which means there’s no cut this week. The field strength was decent at the top until Tiger, Rory and Patrick Reed withdrew from the event, but after those removals we’re left with the typical European Tour field this week. Had Rory or Reed stayed in it could’ve opened up some fairly obvious value for the guys priced near the top, but we don’t need to talk about something that didn’t happen. No course history to go off of this week, so we’ll need to focus primarily on current form and we’ll be leaning more on players that have shown some kind of class over the past six months as well as some savvy veterans that continue to play well overseas. A few items about the course: there are trees on this course, but for the most part shouldn’t be an issue for players, the greens are large, undulating and fast and hitting the appropriate side of the fairway off the tee is of greater importance than being able to bomb it off the tee – of course bombing it off the tee AND on the correct side of the fairway will work to that players advantage as well.

 

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,127
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Antalya, Turkey
• Expected scoring: With a new course comes some unfamiliarity in scoring. That being said I’d like to think the setup will be similar as in years past and somewhere between -15 & -17 should get it done this week.   
• Past Champions: As mentioned previously, this is the first time Carya Golf Club will host the event. Previous champions were on a different course.
• 2015: Victor Dubuisson -22 over Jaco Van Zyl [-21]
• 2014: Brooks Koepka -17 over Ian Poulter [-16]
• 2013: Victor Dubuisson -24 over Jamie Donaldson [-22]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Greens in Regulation, Driving Distance, Ball Striking, Putts per GIR
• Important – Current Form, Scrambling

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STARS:

Bernd Wiesberger (DK $11,500)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 35^th – 2^nd – 7^th – 5^th – 2^nd – 41^st – 11^th
• Stats:58 – Scoring Avg, 59.29% – DA, 294.35 yards – DD, 74.44% – GIR
• Other – Wiesberger let those that played him down last week, but now’s not the time to jump ship. He’s been trending upward for the past three months now and I don’t think he’s going to regress to anything outside of the Top 30 this week. At his price it may be difficult to build a lineup you like for cash games, and with the cut only being eight players I don’t see the need to start with him for anything other than GPPs.

Andy Sullivan (DK $11,100)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 2^nd – 41^st – 20^th – MC – MC – MC
• Stats:74 – Scoring Avg, 64.19% – DA, 292.41 yards – DD, 72.02% – GIR
• Other – Sullivan has been up and down all year, but when he has things clicking he seems to keep it together for a couple events in a row (he also seems to not be able to figure things out when they’re going the opposite way). Sully’s not long off the tee, but looks like a smarter golfer when it comes to course management and I think that that trait will come in handy for Andy this week. I’d feel better starting with him in cash over Wiesberger this week, and that’s not something you’d normally see out of me considering he’s not what I consider to be a “classy player”.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,900)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 23^rd – 9^th – WIN – 45^th
• Stats: 97 – Scoring Avg, 61.21% – DA, 291.93 yards – DD, 70.96% – GIR
• Other – I’m not quite sure what to make of Ty at this point. When he looks to be a great play he falls flat and when you think it’s time to fade he finishes somewhere in the Top 10. That being said, I think this is a “play Hatton” week based on his strengths of hitting fairways & greens as well as the form coming in. He’s slowly becoming a classy European player in my opinion, and we’ve seen what he’s capable of on the PGA Tour in major championships this year so maybe this is the breakout we’ve been waiting for. He’s currently ranked 5^th in the Race to Dubai, so the extra incentive is definitely there this week and the next two.

ALSO CONSIDER – Anirban Lahiri (DK $10,000) played really well in China a few weeks ago and seems to have the skillset to get him around this track at a good discount. It’s tough to say whether the form will continue or not (as his recent finishes have been on courses where he’s had good history), but you have to like back to back 2^nd and 3^rd place finishes in two different strength of field events. Lee Westwood (DK $10,400) is a tough cookie to crack this year. Could he win this week? Sure. Could he finish DFL? Absolutely. I think if you were trying to justify playing him over some of the value plays below it would be for GPP’s only and I’d be interested to find out your reasoning over some of these other guys (translation: I’ll be fading). Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,300), like Wiesberger, is trending in the right direction. I’ll be making him a core play for GPP’s this week mainly because of the form and how close he’s been to putting it all together for the last two months.   

 

VALUE PLAYS:

  Richard Bland (DK $9,100)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 30^th – 4^th – 18^th – 7^th – 5^th – 16^th – 5^th – 27^th
• Stats: 34 – Scoring Avg, 60.26% – DA, 290.16 yards – DD, 65.69% – GIR
• Other – The price is a bit higher than we’d like this week, but he’s still considered a value play in my opinion. That being said, he’s a lock for cash games this week again, but I think there are some better plays for GPP’s since most of his value comes from being a cut maker. If you’re fading the guys at the top, he should be your first plug-in as a cash game “anchor”.

Mikko Ilonen (DK $7,900)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 12^th – 18^th – 53^rd – MC – 12^th
• Stats:94 – Scoring Avg, 56.18% – DA, 286.98 yards – DD, 68.22% – GIR
• Other – Mikko has been very solid all year and I think that continues this week. Looking at form alone, he’s finished in the Top 20 five of his last thirteen events, and has only missed three cuts in that same span. Mikko is one of those guys that consistently falls under the radar of DFS players so I don’t think there will be any ownership concerns for GPP’s this week and I’ll be playing him as a core play for both GPP’s and cash games.

ALSO CONSIDER – Thomas Aiken (DK $7,800) is a guy I plug and play every week he’s playing. He hits a ton of greens in regulation and is perfect for cash games with some room for upside as a GPP play. He’s also in the core this week. Robert Rock (DK $7,300) is one of those players that quietly will have a month stretch where he’s relevant, then he’ll quietly disappear from the first page of the leaderboard (but continues to make cuts). Is it the power of not wearing a hat or is he just one of those players that has the talent to pop for an event out of nowhere? I’m not sure exactly, but I’ll be playing him as a core play this week. Matthew Southgate ($7,200) seems to be catching fire here at the end of the year which could be a good thing for DFS purposes. Finishing T17 & T18 in his last two events and totaling 35 birdies in those tournaments is a very good sign as well. He scored 103.5 DK points last week and his price went down $1,000 this week.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

   Raphael Jacquelin (DK $6,600)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 22^nd – 49^th – MC – 36^th – MC
• Stats: 28 – Scoring Avg, 61.39% – DA, 279.52 yards – DD, 66.89% – GIR
• Other – Jacquelin is more of a gut play for me this week, but the ‘ol gut has been doing pretty well for the past three weeks so I’m rolling with it. He’s not a sexy name by any means, but I think maybe he draws from Dubuisson’s success at this event and makes a run. Euro Tour golf is weird and full of weird narratives and fellow countryman success is one of them. He’s also a plodder of the course, which makes me feel confident in my gut feeling this week.

Matteo Manassero (DK $6,300)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: MC – 49^th – MC – MC – MC
• Stats:75 – Scoring Avg, 60.82% – DA, 282.75 yards – DD, 73.59% – GIR
• Other – Matteo should be nowhere near your cash games this week as he could definitely eject on day one and become an early WD candidate or something crazy.The talent is there and he’s shown flashes this year, but I can’t say confidently that he’s worth a roster spot unless you’re trying to punt the spot away without waving the white flag.

David Drysdale (DK $6,100)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 44^th – 47^th – 39^th – 59^th – MC – 12^th – 44^th
• Stats: 40 – Scoring Avg, 71.06% DA, 279.70 yards – DD, 74.14% GIR
• Other – As mentioned in this article before, the 12^th place finish was a flash in the pan at a course he was familiar with, so I’m not suggesting him for GPPs this week and really he’s only in play as a cash game punt to load up your rosters at the top (and really, if you plug him in with Rock & Ilonen you can make some good teams). Not much else to see here, the greens in regulation are great, but he doesn’t do much else for me.

ALSO CONSIDER – Mike Lorenzo-Vera (DK $6,800) comes in with solid form since the KLM Open, and is probably a guy that no one knows about. Being a Frenchman helps his case for me this week as with Jacquelin, I think he feeds off of Victor’s success in the tournament over the past three years. Jeung-Hun Wang (DK $6,500) makes for an interesting punt play that should see less than 1% ownership in GPP’s. He’s gotten progressively worse over his last three events, but the security of knowing he’s getting a paycheck this week could be just what he needs to get things clicking again.

 

GPP PLAYS  :

 Marc Warren (DK $8,700)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 12^th – 22^nd – 5^th – DQ – 20^th
• Stats: 64 – Scoring Avg, 53.06% – DA, 289.21 yards – DD, 63.48% – GIR
• Other – If Wiesberger is/was the guy that’s been the closest to winning on the Euro Tour the past two months, then Warren deserves the same title over the past month. I really like how he bounced back in Portugal after back to back disappointing events where he got in his way and it cost him the tournament(s). Warren seems to be a huge value play and could be used in cash games, but I think that people don’t think you can play “cash plays” in GPP’s so there should be some kind of ownership percentage to take advantage of this week.

Joakim Lagergren (DK $8,300)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 17^th – 18^th – 4^th – 63^rd – 53^rd
• Stats: 86 – Scoring Avg, 51.95% – DA, 289.61 yards – DD, 66.51% – GIR
• Other – Time to get back aboard the Lagergren Express! His finishes the past three weeks tell me all I need to know and the stats support the play this week. Greens and ball striking are where he flourishes so I’ll be adding him in as a core GPP play this week. I just hope he continues to roll the rock as well as he has the past month.

ALSO CONSIDER – David Horsey (DK $8,000) hasn’t missed a cut in 10 weeks, a streak that will continue again this week. He presents some serious upside in his finishing position trends as well with five Top 25’s in his last six events including two Top 5’s and four Top 12’s. I think he’ll be overlooked this week considering where he’s priced. David Lipsky (DK $7,700) is the only American worth talking about in this event and even that’s a stretch. I don’t hate the price here, but typically prefer to play him on courses where he has some history. That being said, he’s a ball striker that should be able to take advantage of being shorter off the tee. I’ll be fading the two time defending champion Victor Dubuisson (DK $6,800). I don’t think there’s any advantage to playing him and casual fans may think he’s playing on the same course that he won on twice before. Let them waste their time and money on him. I think this might be a good week to jump back in on my boy Callum Shinkwin (DK $6,700). The price is right, he’s made three consecutive cuts (smashing his value last week at $6,500 and scoring 100 DK points), and needs a strong performance to continue playing until the end of the season.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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