Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview-Travelers Championship

OVERVIEW

Formerly known as The Greater Hartford Open, we head to Cromwell, Connecticut (a suburb of Hartford) for the 64^th installment of this event. There have been seven players to win the event on multiple occasions (Bubba in 2010 & 2015, Stewart Cink in 1997 & 2008, and Phil Mickelson in 2001 & 2002 to name a few) so looking at past champions is something to consider this week. TPC River Highlands seems to be one of the two Pete Dye step children in the eyes of difficulty compared to his other designs that gain interest from the Tour (Harbour Town, Copperhead and Sawgrass all get much stronger fields and more emphasis on the events themselves). Regardless of how much interest the top players give this event, we still have games to play and the golfers still have checks to collect. One item of note this week will be the weather. As of yesterday, the forecast calls for rain pretty much from start to finish, whether its play stopping rain or not this will be something to keep an eye on when deciding how much money you’ll be investing this week. My suggestion would be to dial things back this week, the guys are tired from two majors in three weeks, and rain delays piss these guys off.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• TPC River Highlands
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 6,841 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Cromwell, CT
• Expected scoring: The course lends itself prey to birdies and better so we should expect some really low numbers this week, and if the winner isn’t 18 under par or better I’d be shocked.  
• Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Bubba Watson -16 over Paul Casey in a playoff
• 2014: Kevin Streelman -15 over KJ Choi & Sergio Garcia [-14]
• 2013: Ken Duke -12 over Chris Stroud in a playoff
• 2012: Marc Leishman -14 over Bubba Watson & Charley Hoffman [-13]
• 2011: Freddie Jacobson -20 over Ryan Moore & John Rollins [-19]
• 2010: Bubba Watson -14 over Scott Verplank & Corey Pavin in a playoff

 

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – SG: APP, SG:T2G, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, Birdie or Better %, Scrambling
• Important – SG:Putting, Greens in Regulation

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STARS:

Bubba Watson (DK $12,300)

• Course History: WIN – 31^st – 4^th – 2^nd – 38^th – WIN – 14^th – 6^th – MC
• Form: 60^th – 39^th – 14^th – 51^st – 65^th – 43^rd
• Stats: 7 FPPG, 3^rd – SG:OTT, 56^th – SG:APP, 8^th – SG:T2G, 4^th – DD, 18^th – GIR, 33^rd – Birdie Avg, 15^th – Rough Prox, 67^th – Prox, 35^th – BoB, 21^st – Par Breakers
• Other – No surprise here. Bubba has made a killing at this course over his career highlighted by the two wins and a runner up finish. Last year a lot was made of proximity and accuracy off the tee, but Bubba showed us the rules don’t apply to him, hitting driver after driver and giving himself wedges into pretty much every single par 4 he saw. Fade him at your own peril this week.

 Patrick Reed (DK $10,900)

• Course History: MC – MC – 18^th – 47^th
• Form: 13^th – 12^th – 10^th – 52^nd – 39^th – MC – 8^th – 15^th – MC
• Stats: 2 FPPG, 60^th – SG:OTT, 4^th – SG:ARG, 34^th – SG:T2G, 48^th – DD, 52^nd – Birdie Avg, 62^nd – Rough Prox, 101^st – Prox, 9^th – Scrambling, 4^th – Overall Putting Avg, 48^th – BoB 46^th – Par Breakers
• Other – Another major in the books and another Patrick Reed tease. Reed’s ceiling is definitely high, but his ability to ruin his chances in majors is something I can’t describe. Friday saw Reed post a low score and head home one off the lead after shooting even par on Thursday. Sunday morning, Reed starts off rusty, but claws back to shoot even par (simple enough, he didn’t give anything back and sits four off the lead). Sunday afternoon with ball in hand and five shots off the lead, Reed again starts off slow and on a day where literally everyone is scoring, finishes 1 under and in a tie for 13^th. People will look at the finish and applaud him, but he did a really good job of giving away that championship (as did Day and a few others; not to take anything away from Walker’s wire-to-wire win). It seems like he’d be a good play this week, but I have a hard time paying this much for him in a weak field where he “should” play well coming off a tournament where he basically took himself out of contention at the beginning of 3 of 4 rounds.

Zach Johnson (DK $10,200)

• Course History: 6^th – MC – 58^th – 64^th – 24^th – 18^th – MC – 21^st – 42^nd – 3rd
• Form: 33^rd – 12^th – 10^th – 8^th – 17^th – 66^th – 54^th
• Stats: 2 FPPG, 151^st – SG:OTT, 41^st – SG:APP, 24^th – SG:ARG, 48^th – SG:P, 58^th – SG:T2G, 167^th – DD, 53^rd – DA, 103^rd – GIR, 55^th – Birdie Avg, 29^th – Prox, 158^th – Rough Prox, 26^th – Scrambling, 33^rd – Overall Putting Avg, 67^th – BoB, 68^th – Par Breakers
• Other – Fairways & greens Johnson sets up well at pretty much every course and he tends to really turn up his game this time of year, for whatever reason. He’s finally seems comfortable with his extremely expensive PXG clubs and he should considering the club maker has priced them so that basically only professional golfers can afford them. Clubs that expensive should basically hit the ball without the player having to make a swing. Anyways, Zach’s ball striking, wedge play and putting will be on display this week and he deserves consideration in cash and GPP’s. (Sorry for the PXG rant, I’m super bitter about the price of their merchandise).

ALSO CONSIDER – Matt Kuchar (DK $10,600) – Yes things went awry last week, but Kuch is such a nice guy that if I left him out of this preview, he’d probably send me an autographed Bridgestone tire set for my car to make sure it didn’t happen again. While I could use some new tires, it wouldn’t be fair to our subscribers not to mention him. You can’t say Pete Dye course and NOT have Matt Kuchar’ s name come to mind as he’s gained an absurd amount of strokes over the field on PD courses over his career. I expect his ownership to dip a bit this week so he’s in play for GPP’s as well as cash coming off his missed cut. For those that want actual analysis on Kuch, over the past five years he’s only missed the cut in back to back events once (2011 – Open Championship & RBC Canadian). Webb Simpson (DK $10,000) – Webber’s struggles seem to be behind him after his impressive play last week and at the Quicken Loans (T6). I still don’t fully trust him for cash games yet and there’s no way on earth I’m considering a $10,000 Webb Simpson for cash games, but he does warrant consideration for GPP’s.   

 

 VALUE PLAYS:

Jim Furyk (DK $9,400)  

• Course History: MC (2011)
• Form: 73^rd – 13^th – 59^th – 42^nd – 21^st – 2^nd – 52^nd – MC – 35^th
• Stats: N/A – Still doesn’t qualify for stats
• Other – Furyk finally seems back to his OLD ways. Grinding out a nice round Friday to make the cut at the PGA made me really happy (mainly because I invested heavily in him last week) because it gives him more rounds to qualify for the statistical ranking on PGATour.com as well as building confidence in his game heading into the playoffs. Jimmy’s putting & ball striking are above average and should lead to ample opportunities for birdies this week. For the most part, the 36 holes played on Sunday at the PGA were detrimental to a lot of the players in the field this week and I wouldn’t put too much stock into how things turned out because if the player didn’t make a big move in the morning, they seemed to pretty much mail it in on the 2^nd That being said, I think we see a very strong performance out of him and he might even be able to shed the label of not being a “birdie maker”.

 Marc Leishman (DK $8,200)

• Tournament History: 39^th – 11^th – 30^th – WIN – 70^th
• Form: 60^th – 53^rd – 55^th – 39^th – 18^th – 11^th – 13^th – MC – 64^th
• Stats:5 FPPG, 84^th – SG:OTT, 29^th – SG:ARG, 62^nd – SG:P, 61^st – SG:T2G, 53^rd – DD, 85^th – DA, 83^rd – GIR, 100^th – Birdie Avg, 77^th – Prox, 132^nd – Rough Prox, 53^rd – Scrambling, 80^th – Overall Putting Avg, 122^nd – BoB
• Other – We meet again Mr. Leishman. Some may scoff at this play, but we finally saw some life out of Leishman last week at the PGA for two days before fading during the 36 hole marathon on Sunday. Seeing his name on the Top 25 strokes gained list for Pete Dye courses is encouraging and hopefully the ease of this layout will bring back a spark to the Aussie’s game. Being a former winner here helps my confidence in his play this week as well as the course setup, but like many the concern here is fatigue of playing so many weeks in a row.

  Retief Goosen (DK $7,000)

• Course History: 51^st – 5^th
• Form: MC – 12^th – 12th
• Stats:2 FPPG, 165^th – SG:OTT, 102^nd – SG:APP, 5^th – SG:ARG, 18^th – SG:P, 83^rd – SG:T2G, 111^th – DD, 172^nd – DA, 170^th – GIR, 135^th – Birdie Avg, 44^th – Scoring Avg, 65^th – Scrambling, 17^th – Overall Putting Avg, 89^th – BoB
• Other – The Goose is loose this week! Coming off his almost predictable missed cut at the US Open (meaning he was trending way too nicely for that event and was a very chalky play) Goosen hasn’t pegged it for about a month now and his old body should be fully rested to return to the Top 25 of the leaderboard. As with most old guys, Goose doesn’t make big numbers, keeps his ball and swing in control for the most part and can actually score on courses that yield low numbers. I’ll be teeing him up in both cash and GPP’s this week and I’m hoping the only other people who do the same are those of you reading this article.

ALSO CONSIDER – Brendan Steele (DK $8,500) – Steele’s been a pretty chalky play in weaker field events and this week will be no different. I’d expect his ownership to be fairly high in GPP’s which makes sense considering his course history (25^th – 5^th – 13^th – MC – 13^th) and he only missed the cut by two strokes at the PGA so hopefully that scares off some others that only look at form. Either way he seems to play well here and should be considered for all formats. Ryan Moore (DK $7,800) – I’m not sure where to expect Moore’s ownership this week, so make sure you check out the ownership % tool located under the “PGA Tools” drop down menu this week. If Zach & Jeff expect sub 45%, make sure you load up in GPPs as he’s a pretty strong horse (five top 7’s in nine appearances) for this course gaining the second most strokes against the field since 2010 (10 strokes less than Bubba). Not only is he good here, but he seemed to have things clicking last week at the PGA Championship and it makes sense considering he’s above average off the tee, and excellent with long irons in his hands. Justin Thomas (DK $7,800) – JT’s been rolling pretty well the past month and hit the Top 25 on the Pete Dye specialist list. His finishes have been average at best, but I really like his scoring ability due to his length off the tee. I won’t be considering him for cash games this week, but I think where he’s priced, he’ll make for a nice GPP play, but you should expect high ownership at this price. Tyrell Hatton (DK $7,700) – Was able to get into the field this week because of his excellent play at the PGA Championship and with this price tag his ownership may get pretty high. I’m thinking Ryan Moore & Justin Thomas absorb most of the ownership in this area and make Hatton a very nice GPP play, but at the same time, I could see him being popular because of how good he played last week during primetime coverage. Either way, make sure to check out Zach & Jeff’s ownership projections on the website before lineup lock. Luke Donald (DK $7,300) – If you’ve been reading my articles for more than a week or two, you know how much it pains me to talk about Luke Donald, but here we are. Luke’s ball striking and putting is really the only thing to highlight here as his length off the tee resembles that of a junior golfer. The good news is he should be able to plod his way through the cut line for cash games and that’s all I can recommend him for this week. His 7^th place finish last year helps me feel a little bit better about playing him in cash games as well as being ranked in the Top 10 in strokes gained on Pete Dye courses, but I’d feel even more comfortable if he had more than 1 appearance here.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 Aaron Baddeley (DK $6,900)

• Course History: 48^th – 4^th – MC – 37^th – 24^th – 27^th – MC – MC – MC – 61^st
• Form: 49^th – WIN – 17^th – 12^th – MC – MC – 55^th – MC – MC
• Stats: 8 FPPG, 161^st – SG:OTT, 160^th – SG:APP, 2^nd – SG:ARG, 7^th – SG:P, 126^th – SG:T2G, 80^th – DD, 168^th – DA, 138^th – GIR, 25^th – Birdie Avg, 48^th – Scoring Avg, 155^th – Prox, 144^th – Rough Prox, 8^th – Scrambling, 5^th – Overall Putting Avg, 17^th – BoB
• Other – Badds kept the good mojo going this past week at the PGA Championship on a course that really didn’t suit his game all that well but didn’t feature any “native” areas (this is the one spot on the course that typically isn’t in play on any hole, yet Baddeley manages to find it more often than he should). Fast forward to this week, Badds comes to a course he’s familiar with and has had success on. I wouldn’t recommend him for cash games as his potential to have the occasional blow up hole could crush your hopes and dreams, but his excellent putting ability makes him an extremely good GPP play assuming he stays out of said native areas on this course. Oh, his caddie will be on the podcast this week with Coach Esser and myself (I didn’t know this until well after I wrote him up) this week and we’re kind of a good luck charm the past two weeks featuring Jimmy Walker & James Hahn’s caddies.

Chris Stroud (DK $6,300)

• Course History: 10^th – 18^th – 2^nd – 37^th – 17^th – 42^nd – 26^th – 71^st – WD
• Form: 38^th – 47^th – MC – 44^th – 13^th – DQ – WD
• Stats:4 FPPG, 121^st – SG:OTT, 93^rd – SG:APP, 160^th – SG:ARG, 63^rd – SG:P, 124^th – SG:T2G, 137^th – DD, 104^th – DA, 80^th – GIR, 122^nd – Birdie Avg, 130^th – Prox, 89^th – Rough Prox, 111^th – Scrambling, 107^th – Overall Putting Avg, 126^th – BoB
• Other – Stroud is about as good of a horse course as you’ll find down in this area. Having made the cut in all but one appearance, you’d have to think he’s going to be a popular play especially in cash games this week. My thought here is actually to fade him in the event he misses the cut (his form has been fairly good, but this seems like a trap given he’s not an elite talent) and only play him in GPP’s this week for that reason.

 Jerry Kelly (DK $6,000) 

• Course History: MC – 31^st – 24^th – 37^th – 38^th – 63^rd – 70^th – MC – 15^th – MC – 4^th – 13^th
• Form: 26^th – MC – MC – MC – 19^th
• Stats: 8 FPPG, 104^th – SG:OTT, 66^th – SG:APP, 89^th – SG:T2G, 186^th – DD, 4^th – DA, 104^th – GIR, 179^th – Birdie Avg, 9^th – Prox, 22^nd – Rough Prox, 3^rd Scrambling, 73^rd Overall Putting Avg, 185^th – BoB
• Other – Old man Kelly has quite the extensive course history at River Highlands and for that reason alone he’ll be considered for all formats. He’s never missed back to back cuts here in his career, and he’s pretty good at avoiding the big numbers that take him out of a tournament. His three straight missed cuts are a bit of a concern, but I’m hopeful that returning to a familiar place will lead to some comfortable play in the old timer.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jon Curran (DK $6,500) – Jon played well at the PGA with three rounds under par and I’m sure some people took notice. The problem here is his record on Pete Dye courses this year hasn’t been as good. He did make the cut at Sawgrass finishing T39, shot -5 at Riviera to finish T26. The concern here is how he fared on the other PD courses this year – 71/70/76 at the shortened Zurich to finish 82^nd (where he would’ve MDF’d had they played another round) 73/77 at Harbour Town, 79/71 at Copperhead, and 71/68/70 at PGA West to miss the cut in all three events. I think if he gets some tout steam this week, the play would be to fade him. Bryce Molder (DK $6,300) – Makes for a nice cash game play, and could be a very nice GPP play this week if we don’t hear much about him. Another Pete Dye guy, Molder is having the best year of his career and continues to surprise me whether he’s making Top 10 runs in strong fields or missing the cut in weak fields. I think Molder gets things back on track this week after not having to spend too much time waiting around during the PGA Championship where he missed the cut. Seung-Yul Noh (DK $6,100) – Course history is a mixed bag, but all cuts made in four years (20^th – 61^st – 58^th – 18^th), form is mixed as well with an “every other tournament is a missed cut” pattern, but we’re trying to find some sneaky value in this range and I think the majority of DFS players seem to forget about this young ball striker. I don’t see a win as a projection, but if he can make it to the weekend he should provide excellent value for cash & GPPs. Brendon de Jonge (DK $6,000) – This suggestion pains me, but alas here we are. The husky Zimbabwean is one of my least favorite players to play for DFS purposes because I’ve had to seek medical attention every time I’ve put faith in his stock (he burned me several times in 2015) Normally in hot weather he’d be an auto-fade because of #FadeFatGuysInHotWeather, but I can’t hold back when looking at his course history (5/8 cuts made, 2 Top 10’s) and current form (two consecutive cuts made – expectations are extremely low here, ha-ha!)..  

 

GPP PLAYS:

Branden Grace (DK $11,500)

• Course History: MC
• Form: 4^th – 72^nd – 29^th – 10^th – 5^th – 57^th
• Stats: 3 FPPG, 34^th – SG:OTT, 5^th – SG:APP, 53^rd – SG:ARG, 96^th – SG:P, 10^th – SG:T2G, 53^rd – DD, 165^th – DA, 44^th – GIR, 78^th – Birdie Avg, 55^th – Prox, 12^th – Rough Prox, 68^th – Scrambling, 133^rd – Overall Putting Avg, 112^th – BoB
• Other – Branden Grace seems to play well in majors except for the Masters (MC – T5 – T72 – T4 in majors this year) and he plays even better in events after majors (WIN – T10 – T4). Also, his win earlier this year came on a Pete Dye design at Harbour Town, so he knows how to get around the Dyeabolical designs. His ownership should be fairly inflated this week due to his impressive showing at the PGA during primetime coverage so keep that in mind as well.

Brooks Koepka (DK $11,200)

• Course History: 51^st
• Form: 4^th – WD – 13^th – 2^nd – 2^nd – 35^th
• Stats: 4 FPPG, 4^th – SG:OTT, 58^th – SG:APP, 22^nd – SG:P, 21^st – SG:T2G, 16^th – DD, 124^th – DA, 9^th – Birdie Avg, 72^nd – Prox, 39^th – Rough Prox, 117^th – Scrambling, 80^th – Overall Putting Avg, 12^th – BoB, 9^th – Par Breakers
• Other – Koepka’s been very open about his motivation to make the Ryder Cup team without having to be a Captain’s pick and he showed us last week how good he can be when he’s got some extra motivation (he’s on the team as of today, but is at the top of a log jam list of players all fighting for points). From a DraftKings points perspective, he may be the best in the field as far as upside goes in the amount of points he’ll accrue in birdies or better and if he finishes in the Top 10, that upside increases exponentially. Some may be concerned about his ankle again this week, especially after his post round comments yesterday, but it’s worth the risk here. Brooks is a strong GPP play this week, but could be around 35% owned in GPP’s.

ALSO CONSIDER – Paul Casey (DK $9,900) – Casey’s ball striking is what led me to recommending him as a GPP suggestion this week. I assume a lot of people will be on him in cash, and a lot of times DFS players only consider a player for cash instead of for GPP’s as well. I’m sure his ownership this week will be higher than last, but we don’t have much to work with here and I assume others will take players who have shown a bit more form than Casey in the last month. Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – When looking at Lowry’s finishes since his T2 collapse at the US Open, you may not think he’s worth a spot on your teams, and that’s exactly why you should be considering him for GPP’s this week. Having only missed the cut in four events this year on the PGA Tour (and his first back-to-back missed cuts) Lowry is a steady player who should feast on the soft conditions that he’ll see at River Highlands. I really like how he’s bounced back in events following missed cuts in non-major events, and given he won on a tighter track at Firestone last year makes me think he sets up very well here. Keegan Bradley (DK $7,600) – Course history and current form are aligning here as it seems like he’s worked out the kinks. I’m sure the east coast connection will be brought up this week as well (Keegan played college at St. Johns just 5 hours from the course, and this event was the first he ever attended as a golf fan [I think the 2^nd part of that narrative is more important than the first]). Either way, I actually really like how Keegan sets up this week as a GPP play. Bryson DeChambeau (DK $7,200) – This week could be a good week to get low ownership on someone who has shown us he has the mental fortitude to overcome what Pete Dye throws at these players when building his courses. DeScambro placed T4 at Harbour Town in April (Pete Dye), T15 at Oakmont (tough/long course) following his success at the Masters. His ability to hit his spots off the tee should enable him ample birdie opportunities this week. John Senden (DK $6,700) – Coming off his second consecutive made cut since June, Senden might be a sneaky play in GPP’s as far as getting one of your cheaper players though the cut – mainly because he quietly shot under par for three days and finished inside the Top 20 at the PGA Championship. Senden’s a Pete Dye Specialist and that’s really all that I needed in order to highlight my favorite RoboCop doppelganger. If you need more than that to roster him this week, I’d look at his ball striking stats where he ranks 70^th in SG: APP, 33^rd in GIR, and is Top 60 in approaches from 225-250, 200-225, 50-75, and 75-100 yards.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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