Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Tour Championship

OVERVIEW

Finally, the final event of the PGA Tour season is upon us! It’s been a great ride for me since joining Team FGI and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading my preview articles as much as I’ve had providing you with them. This week we head off to East Lake Golf Club where the final thirty golfers look to obtain the Fed Ex Cup trophy and, more importantly, the ten million dollar bonus. Many of the golfers ranked from twenty to thirty don’t have a prayer at the bonus, but saying they made it through the four leg process to win the Tour Championship is still something to be proud of. Just like last week, I don’t recommend an all-out fade on one specific player, but of course that is only dependent on how many lineups you plan on playing. Instead, scale back on a guy you think has peaked and pair him with other golfers you don’t anticipate playing well. That way, you have hopefully isolated your worst team, and can go on to counting your stacks come Sunday afternoon with the players you liked better.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• East Lake Golf Club (Donald Ross Design)
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,307 yards
• Greens: Bermuda grass (12’ on the stimp meter, fast greens)
o Location: Atlanta, GA
o Expected scoring: DJ crushed the field and my prediction last week, which was probably a little on the low side after over shooting the DBC projection. This week I think -12 gets it done with Spieth claiming back to back Tour Championship titles over Dustin Johnson, possibly in a playoff.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Jordan Spieth -9 over Danny Lee, Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson [-5]
• 2014: Billy Horschel -11 over Jim Furyk, Rory McIlroy [-8]
• 2013: Henrik Stenson -13 over Jordan Spieth, Steve Stricker [-10]
• 2012: Brandt Snedeker -10 over Justin Rose [-7]
• 2011: Bill Haas -8 over Hunter Mahan in a playoff
• 2010: Jim Furyk -8 over Luke Donald [-7]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT, SG:APP, SG:T2G, Birdie or Better %, SG:P, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – Ball Striking, Scrambling, SG:ARG

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STARS:

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,700)
• Course History: 5th – 5th – 10th – 23rd – 22nd – 26th
• Form: WIN – 8th – 18th – MC – 2nd – 9th – WIN
• Stats: 2nd – SG:OTT, 22nd – SG:APP, 78th – SG:ARG, 30th – SG:P, 3rd – SG:T2G, 1st – DD, 45th – GIR, 1st – Birdie Avg, 68th – Scrambling, 1st – Par Breakers, 16th – P3 BoB, 1st – P4 BoB, 4th – P5 BoB
• Other – So DJ has three consecutive Top 10’s here in years and comes in playing probably the best golf since Rory won two majors in a single year. DJ sets up well on any course when he’s not putting as well as he has been, but now he’s gotten rid of the mental yips that have cost him many tournaments in the past. I personally think either he or Spieth wins this week (as mentioned in the expected scoring section of this article) and fading him will cost you a shot at GPP glory. Fire him up in all formats this week.

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,100)
• Course History: 16th – 2nd – 10th
• Form: 42nd – WIN – 31st – MC – 5th – 3rd
• Stats: 1st – SG:OTT, 33rd – SG:APP, 42nd – SG:ARG, 142nd – SG:P, 2nd – SG:T2G, 10th – DD, 20th – GIR, 2nd – Birdie Avg, 87th – Scrambling, 2nd – Par Breakers, 117th – P3 BoB, 10th – P4 BoB, 1st – P5 BoB
• Other – Rory’s balky putter showed up last week and destroyed one of the two lineups I made (the other was very strong and made up for the entries I had on the Rory lineup, but enough about that). It’s weird how he hasn’t played exceptionally well here in the past outside of his runner up finish in 2014 considering he’s a tee to green monster and has had a great short game up until this year. Regardless, he might be a GPP only play for me this week mainly because of the young fella below who’s still counting his bonus money from last year and the strong feelings I have for his game/price this week. The putter is really the only thing holding him back, and if the variance swings back in his direction again this week we can expect him to contend.

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,600)
• Course History: WIN – 27th – 2nd
• Form: 9th – 21st – 10th – 13th – 30th – 3rd
• Stats: 31st – SG:OTT, 70th – SG:APP, 16th – SG:ARG, 2nd – SG:P, 15th – SG:T2G, 54th – DD, 142nd – GIR, 3rd – Birdie Avg, 5th – Scrambling, 4th – Par Breakers, 42nd – P3 BoB, 5th – P4 BoB, 2nd – P5 BoB
• Other – One thing I’ve liked about Spieth this year is his ability to play well on courses where he’s played well in his short career on Tour. His runner up finish at the Masters during a time where his game was way off was a sign of comfort, as well as his win at the Dean & Deluca where he’s played well, his 3rd place finish at Firestone all point to a top class player who, regardless of form, shows up on courses he knows. Add in the current form of his T10 at The Barclays and 9th at the BMW, and I see the first back to back Fed Ex Cup winner in PGA Tour history. If you’re like me and haven’t burned him in one & done’s yet, you’ve been saving him for this.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jason Day (DK $10,300) withdrew mid event at the BMW with a sore labia back, but this is par for the course… literally. Day has had issues with something damn near every week he’s teed it up for the past two months since the Match Play event where his back was bothering him and he ended up routing Graeme McDowell in the first round and went on to win the GD event! I don’t know what other kinds of adversity he can deal with at this point, but he does have a knack for not only dealing with pain/emotional stress and you can’t count him out even if logic says to. Adam Scott (DK $10,100) has finished T4 in three of the first four legs of the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs. That in itself is remarkable, but the fact that he basically came out of nowhere with this solid play makes for an even more interesting story. He’s had Stevie on the bag during the playoffs so maybe that has played a part in their preparation or maybe the time off during the Olympics refreshed his mind and game. Either way I think he’s in play for all formats this week and comes at a discount considering how well he’s been playing. Patrick Reed (DK $9,000) seems to be flying under the radar, which is weird considering he’s been playing some great golf and is usually a popular play. Hitting the $9k threshold would usually temper my expectations for him, but he almost hit value last week (priced at $9,700, scored 78 DK FPts) and this week he’s cheaper than the new flavor of the week, Paul Casey. I think the masses will flock to Casey’s back to back runner up finishes and this is a good week to jump off his wagon and hitch up to Patty.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,600)
• Tournament History: 12th – 22nd
• Form: 24th – 15th – MC – 3rd – 4th – MC – 42nd
• Stats: 10th – SG:OTT, 2nd – SG:APP, 105th – SG:ARG, 125th – SG:P, 4th – SG:T2G, 64th – DD, 4th – Birdie Avg, 53rd – Scrambling, 6th – Par Breakers, 65th – P3 BoB, 4th – P4 BoB, 16th – P5 BoB
• Other – I know he won at the Memorial and at the Waste Management, but I don’t know if he’s capable of winning a strong field event such as this. Granted he doesn’t need to at this price, but the hype around Mats is ridiculous when it comes to golf media and I’m guilty of falling for that narrative as well. Queue him up for cash games this week as his ball striking will no doubt be on display again this week, I just don’t think he provides the necessary upside you’d need to fit him in with two of the top guys this week and he relies too much on his putter warming up in order to contend. You can get a similar player with higher upside below this price point for GPP’s.

Matt Kuchar (DK $8,200)
• Course History: 10th – 13th 26th – 10th – 20th – 25th
• Form: 4th – 33rd – 41st – MC – MC – MC – 3rd – MC
• Stats: 40th – SG:OTT, 45th – SG:APP, 29th – SG:ARG, 21st – SG:P, 17th – SG:T2G, 138th – DD, 47th – GIR, 12th – Birdie Avg, 34th – Scrambling, 14th – Par Breakers, 126th – P3 BoB, 13th – P4 BoB, 23rd – P5 BoB
• Other – Kuch made his triumphant return to the Top 5 last week and I hope you were on him as suggested in this preview article. I think he backs last week up with another fine performance again this week and comes in at a reasonable price for both cash & GPP’s and I really like starting my GPP lineups with DJ-Kuch or Spieth-Kuch stacks, diving down for a few value plays and seeing what I can get with the remaining salary. Kuchar will be a core play for me again this week.

Russell Knox (DK $8,000)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 17th – 15th – 60th – WIN – 22nd – 30th – 10th – 54th
• Stats: 67th – SG:OTT, 43rd – SG:APP, 67th – SG:ARG, 103rd – SG:P, 43rd – SG:T2G, 141st – DD, 6th – GIR, 56th – Birdie Avg, 20th – Scrambling, 66th – Par Breakers, 35th – P3 BoB, 54th – P4 BoB, 120th – P5 BoB
• Other – Knox started out the playoffs with shaky play at the Barclays, but he was three weeks removed from his first win and our expectations may have been a bit high. He’s finished strong the last two weeks to make the final push to East Lake where, like Matsuyama, his ball striking will be on display. Knox has a bright future ahead of him as long as he continues to putt well, and for this price he should be considered for both cash & GPP’s.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jimmy Walker (DK $7,900) – This is what I wrote for Jimmy last week “Played great at the RBC Canadian Open on Sunday shooting a 68. He then started the PGA Championship with a low round 65 and became the wire-to-wire winner shooting 66, 68, and 67. He followed that up by missing the cut at both the Wyndham AND the Barclays only to finish 3rd last week at the Deutsche Bank Championship. The question with Jimmy is not when, but how is he going to treat us this week? I happen to think we get another version of “good Jimmy” as he’s finally over all the media that surrounds a first time major winner and can focus on a much larger prize” Guess what Jimmy did at the BMW? Came out flat with an opening 74, ho hummed Friday & Saturday and lit the course on fire Sunday with a 66 finishing T13. When he finished his round he was inside the Top 10, so the T13 doesn’t look as good as it could have, but I think the no cut aspect of things plays well for someone like Jimmy. He’s got legit Top 10 upside this week and should be a part of your cash & GPP teams. Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,700) has been nothing but consistent all year missing only one cut (at the Masters of all places), he has eleven Top 25’s including four Top 10’s and a win at the Valspar. His cut making ability doesn’t mean much here this week, but the T4 he posted last week is encouraging enough to warrant consideration for not only cash games, but GPP’s too. Justin Thomas (DK $7,100) could be playing to catch Davis Love’s eye this week and he plays a game of golf that should translate to success at Hazeltine; mainly bombing the f out of the ball and making birdies. If you’ve paid attention to anything I’ve said on Twitter this week, you know I like JT & Berger as two choices for captain’s picks and if it were down to those two, I’d go with JT mainly because of the chemistry that he and Spieth have together. Yes, the pairing of Spieth & Reed was really good last time out, but I think JT would be jacked to rep Team America with his good pal Jordan Spieth.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Si Woo Kim (DK $6,700)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 20th – 15th – MC – WIN – 25th – MC – 23rd – 2nd
• Stats: 37th – SG:OTT, 137th – SG:APP, 11th- SG:ARG, 122nd – SG:P, 40th – SG:T2G, 70th – DD, 117th – GIR, 49th – Birdie Avg, 46th – Par Breakers, 136th – P3 BoB, 73rd – P4 BoB, 30th – P5 BoB
• Other – Last week I mentioned Si Woo as a play at $7,600 and he returned 100% of his salary to the tune of 76 DraftKings points. This week we get the same player, on another ball striking course at a $900 discount and what’s sure to be sub 10% ownership. For whatever reason, Si Woo gets ignored by the DFS community and he shouldn’t because he has birdie making ability (sixteen birdies in each of his last two events), avoids the big numbers (three double bogeys or worse in that same time span) and will be less popular than those around him.

Kevin Na (DK $6,500)
• Tournament History: 16th – 19th – 17th – 29th
• Form: 20th – MC – 10th – 8th – 22nd – 22nd – 27th
• Stats: 151st – SG:OTT, 3rd – SG:APP, 36th – SG:ARG, 71st – SG:P, 32nd – SG:T2G, 173rd – DD, 66th – GIR, 24th – Birdie Avg, 23rd – Par Breakers, 46th – P3 BoB, 9th – P4 BoB, 124th – P5 BoB
• Other – The pricing algo on Kevin Na at DraftKings is weird. In the last four events he’s been $10,500 at the John Deere (weak field, placed T8), $9,100 at the Wyndham (stronger field, T10), $7,300 at the Barclays (strong field, missed cut) and $6,800 at the BMW (strongest field yet, T20) so seeing him at $300 cheaper than last week means we’re getting him at a nice discount on a course that actually suits him; unlike at the Barclays where his ball striking wasn’t enough to make up for how short he is off the tee. Na will be very popular this week, so unless you plan on being overweight with your Na ownership, it might be best to stick with him in cash games; I’m expecting around 35% ownership in GPPs at this price especially considering he has good course history here and #BabySwag is still in his favor.. Who knows, maybe he’ll cap off the season with the 3rd babyswag win of the year!

Sean O’Hair (DK $6,200)
• Course History: 3rd (2009) – 12th (2005)
• Form: 52nd – 53rd – 2nd – 22nd – MC – MC – MC
• Stats: 44th – SG:OTT, 143rd – SG:APP, 76th – SG:ARG, 60th – SG:P, 76th – SG:T2G, 22nd – DD, 53rd – GIR, 21st – Birdie Avg, 89th – Scrambling, 27th – Par Breakers, 106th – P3 BoB, 27th – P4 BoB, 37th – P5 BoB
• Other – Last week I said “O’Hair is THE guy I’ll probably have the most of under $7k this week as he ranks highly in the strokes gained Pete Dye vs average statistic for me, is a solid ball striker, a decent putter and comes in off a very disappointing 53rd place finish after his 2nd place finish at the Barclays.” Well, that didn’t work out very well, but I feel like this is a “week early” situation and with no cut again this week I think he merits some consideration especially in GPP’s. I’m not in love with his course history since it’s been seven years since he last teed it up here, but I’m not willing to fade cheap players who have two solid finishes here either.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jason Dufner (DK $6,400) is way underpriced considering his form and history here. In four appearances he has four Top 20’s with a 9th place finish being his best in 2013. Dufner might not have Top 5 upside unless his putter catches fire, but at $6,400 he is an absolute steal who can crack the Top 10 and boost your cash & GPP teams. William McGirt (DK $6,300) has been up and down all year. A couple good finishes, coupled by some ill-timed missed cuts should keep his ownership down, but considering he’s a good ball striker with long irons in his hands I’m willing to take a shot on him at expected low ownerships. I don’t know if the situation will be overwhelming for him like it seems other tournaments have (Deutsche Bank, Open Championship, US Open, Arnold Palmer, etc.), but he does have the security of not having to grind out a Friday cut, so maybe that puts his mind at ease.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Phil Mickelson (DK $8,100)
• Course History: 12th – 15th – 10th – 22nd- WIN – 3rd – 20th – 19th
• Form: 24th – MC – 13th – 33rd – 2nd – 13th – 27th
• Stats: 28th – SG:OTT, 46th – SG:APP, 163rd – SG:ARG, 112th – SG:P, 47th – SG:T2G, 68th – DD, 27th – GIR, 8th – Birdie Avg, 6th – Scrambling, 9th – Par Breakers, 2nd – P3 BoB, 84th – P4 BoB, 9th – P5 BoB
• Other – I’ve been wrong on Phil pretty much every week this year with the exception of the three places he plays well almost all the time – Pebble Beach, Doral & Quail Hollow. That being said, Phil has had some strong performances at East Lake over his never ending career and a “fluke” win after the year he’s had could be in the cards this week. It’s interesting to see how well he’s playing in most facets of his game and yet he’s been the runner up in three events, T3 at the Career Builder (his first event of the year) and T4 at the aforementioned Quail Hollow. I’m not shoving all of my chips in because he’s burned me a lot since The Open, but the majority of my chips are in on Phil’s first win of 2016 coming this week and at a very nice discount.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,900)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 32nd – 33rd – 2nd – 8th – 13th – 43rd – 12th – 14th
• Stats: 113th – SG:OTT, 6th – SG:APP, 34th – SG:ARG, 5th – SG:P, 20th – SG:T2G, 66th – DD, 72nd – GIR, 20th – Birdie Avg, 166th – Scrambling, 33rd – Par Breakers, 102nd – P3 BoB, 23rd– P4 BoB, 57th – P5 BoB
• Other – Grillo was over $8,300 from the Olympics until this week. During that span he went T8, T2, T33, and T32, scoring 85.5, 96, 78.5 and 71.5 DraftKings points. I have a feeling he might be chalky in GPP’s, but I don’t care if I’m looking at 20%+ ownership on him this week; if he comes in the Top 10 you’ll need him to be on your team to place in the top portion of GPPs.
ALSO CONSIDER – Daniel Berger (DK $7,000) and Ryan Moore (DK $6,800) both have legitimate shots at being captain’s picks for the American Ryder Cup team this year. Berger broke out with his win at the FedEx St. Jude back in June and has been trending upwards again during the playoffs (T70, T41, T10). Meanwhile, Ryan Moore has been straight fire since his win at the John Deere in July (T53, T7, T8, T64). The $1.9k price drop here is a bit of a head scratcher from last week, but I really like that people will probably shy away from him and look to guys like Dufner near his price point.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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