Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- The RSM Classic
This is it folks, the final official event this Fall PGA season and wow did it go by quickly. Of course we will have the Hero Challenge to entertain us a bit in December, but then we hit it full steam come January. However, just because there are not any events, does not mean we should stop thinking about and making ourselves better at golf. Be sure to take a look back at your history and study it to see those things that were successful and those that maybe were not as successful. What pieces of information can we take from this past year? In December only, we are going to be posting an in-depth, several part article analyzing winning GPP lineups from Draftkings over the past nine months. We collected the data and Zach, Roger, and myself have contributed findings from studying the data. There are several common themes that are apparent and critical for you to know, so that you can apply them when building your GPP lineups. Once December is gone, we will take down the article and it will not be available again. We realize there is only one event in December, but we still want to provide value to our premium members.
We will also be posting, the very popular Crystal Ball article with players to make sure to watch in 2016. Last year’s Crystal Ball article identified a ton of players who had monster years and we hope to do as well with it this year. We will also try and add other value adding information to make you a better DFS golf player and continue to increase your edge over everybody else. Also, make sure not to let your membership expire, because in January the rates will be going up a bit. We want to be loyal to those that have been loyal to us, so if you keep your membership and do not cancel, you will keep the same rate that you signed up with us at. If the legal issues surrounding DFS do not mushroom, we predict 2016 to be even bigger for golf than it was even last year. We hope you are excited for it because as new people continue to come to DFS golf, the contests get bigger, but even better your edge increases.
Last week we got back to our winning ways with our recommendations for both cash games and GPPs. Our top stud pick was right on the money with Jason Bohn who took T2 . Top value picks Patrick Rodgers and Charles Howell III also played well for us. Jason Kokrak, Smylie Kaufman, Roberto Castro, Johnson Wagner, and Brett Stegmaier were all successful picks. The guys who surprised us the most were Harris English, Chris Stroud, and Carlos Ortiz who must have drank the tap water down in Mexico. Can you drink the water down in Playa now? I haven’t been down there in a while. Anyway, we have come to the conclusion that Brendon Steele and Russell Knox hate Fantasy Golf Insider. Zach and I laugh about this, actually cry about this, but every-time we recommend these guys they suck, and when we avoid them they shine. We have no idea what is going on with Steele this fall, he either contends to win the tournament or misses the cut completely. He has gone from a great cash game player last year to an avoid cash game player this season (although decent GPP if you can hit the correct week). Overall a good week and helps build back up the momentum going into the finale this week.
This week our focus comes back to the United States and the Sea Island Golf Club in Sea Island, Georgia for The RSM Classic (formerly the MacGladrey). This tournament was established in 2010, so we will look at tournament history for it’s existence. Typically the tournament is played solely on the Seaside course, a links course at the southern tip of St Simons Island and is a Par 70 and measures 7,005 yards. This year however one two first two rounds will be played on the Plantation course, which is an inland layout, has been recently upgraded by Reed Jones and measures 7,033 yards in length.
The key statistics that we are focusing in on this week are the same strokes gained tee-to-green, Par 4 scoring, and greens in regulation per usual. In addition we have found that good putters –or- guys that are putting well to have had a lot of success as well. Last year Robert Streb finished up as the best putter in the field in route to his win and the year before Chris Kirk was among the ten best putters. Also take a look at players who are familiar with the courses and have Georgia ties. I realize there are a lot of them, but they seem to perform well year after year in this tournament. There are several players within our recommendations that live nearby and who are obviously familiar with Sea Island.
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Since the 2014-2015 season is a couple months in the past and there is too small of a sample size for 2015-2016, we will not be listing statistics this week as most are not relevant.
This week I truly believe you go with the hot hands, those guys that have been doing it week after week this Fall. Also those that have come off the Web.com Tour and are hungry to accumulate points, which means every cut made it at the utmost importance to them. There is a reason we have been recommending those guys week after week and they continue to reward us for doing so. Guys like Patrick Rodgers, Smylie Kaufman, Patton Kizzire (although he was unreasonably priced last week and did not produce value), Chez Reavie, Roberto Castro, Spencer Levin. These guys have all made nearly every single cut this Fall and even been in contention several times. This week there are some big names that join the field like Snedeker, Kirk, ZJ, Kuchar, etc, which will push down the price and ownership of the guys I mentioned above. This is good for us and will help us gain even more value from them.
Top Stud Picks:
Matt Kuchar- After a long lay-off looking a bit rusty in round 1 of the OHL Classic last week, Kuchar responded in the 2nd round to rally and make the cut, but ultimately only finishing T68 and badly under-performed his price. This was yet another week that the top-priced guy underperformed their price and thus we have faded them. This week he basically returns home as his residence is nearby St Simons (actually is neighbors of Zach Johnson) where he has had some average success. A 22nd last year, 7th in 2013, 20th in 2011, and 25th in 2010. All of those finishes except in 2013 would under-perform Kuchar’s price-tag this week, which eliminates him from my cash games. However, in GPPs I think he is rosterable, but I will be underweight at about 6% (last week he was owned by 15% in the $3 event on Draftkings. (Mostly GPP)
Zach Johnson- Here is your high priced player of the week, and most likely a fade on my rosters because of his $11,500 price-tag. ZJ has not had outstanding performances here with a 16th in 2013, 49th in 2012, MC in 2011, and 12th in 2010. Johnson has not played in a while so I expect some rust coming out of the gates. Still he is one of the few elite players in this field and we can consider him, but should be underweight Johnson as well. (Mostly GPP)
Kevin Kisner- The Georgia Bulldog has been solid out of the gates this season with a T25 at Shriners, T37 at CIMB, and runner up at WGC-HSBC. He has played very well in this tournament with a 4th last year, 20th in 2013, MC in 2012, and 26th in 2011. Kisner emerged last year as a really good player and has obviously continued that this year. Not to jinx it, but if he is not one of the highest owned players this week in every contest, I would be very surprised. I will personally be overweight Kisner this week, which will be 30%+ (GPPs and Cash Games)
Patrick Rodgers- In case you have missed my other columns this fall, I have recommended Rodgers in each one and he has not disappointed. A T6 at Frys.com, T13 at Shriners, T20 at Sanderson Farms, and T10 last week at the OHL Classic are his results this fall. Not to mention his scoring ability is high, which makes him a valuable commodity on sites that reward birdies and eagles like Draftkings. He has not played at Sea Island before, which is a negative, but the run he is on right now I am not sure it matters. I am sticking to my prediction that Mr. Rodgers will win a tour event this season. I like both Kisner and Rodgers as my picks in the upper tier this week. (GPP and Cash games)
Patton Kizzire- Has the buzz calmed down at least a little bit from last week? I have liked Kizzire from the start and recommended him in my column as a Top 10 Sleeper to watch this fall as well as recommending him each week he has played. But last week was nuts, with the second highest price of $10,700 expectations went overboard. Yes he came off leading the Web.com Tour and yes he had a T2 at Shriners and T4 at Sanderson Farms, but that was ridiculous. This week his salary comes down to $9,500, which is far more reasonable and frankly after a T58 place finish last week at OHL, I do not believe his ownership will be as high. Kizzire did actually play in this event last year and took 54th. One thing that I doubt many people will know about is that Kizzire is a resident of neighboring St Simons Island, so he no doubt has played the courses quite a few times. (GPP and Cash Games)
Top Value Picks:
Spencer Levin- Whatever magic potion Levin took to revitalize his career, I want some. Last year he only made 18 cuts in 31 events with a measly one Top 10. This season so far he has a T48 at Frys.com, T25 at Shriners, T17 at CIMB, and T10 at OHL Classic. He has made the cut in two out of three appearances in this tournament including a 55th in 2013 and 32nd in 2011. He is simply playing better right now than he has in the past so we need to weight current form higher. His salary is a bit higher this week at $8,900 as opposed to previous weeks making him not as much of a screaming value, but I believe he still can return value this week. (GPP and Cash Games)
Brendon De Jonge- I recommended De Jonge last week and he made the cut, but only finished T58, which wasn’t horrible, but also not tremendous. In addition to his finish last week he also has a T27 at the CIMB Classic and T13 at Shriners. De Jonge has been very good at Sea Island in the past with a runner-up finish last year, 16th in 2013, 4th in 2012, 60th in 2011, and 15th in 2010. A combination of good current form, great tourney history, and perpetual low ownership (9% last week in the DK $3), makes me like De Jonge quite a bit this week. (GPP and Cash Games)
Jason Kokrak- Quietly this fall Kokrak has been playing solidly and nobody is talking about him. He took T38 at Shriners, T12 at Sanderson Farms, and T17 last week at the OHL Classic. He is 3 of 3 making cuts here at Sea Island. Last week Kokrak was owned by 4.4% in the $3 contest on Draftkings, and we expect him to stay under the radar again this week, which makes him a very nice GPP play. His price-tag of only $8,500 seems cheap as well. (GPP and Cash Games)
Smylie Kaufman- Now 4 for 4 making the cut this fall, Kaufman has been the best rookie so far in the 2015-2016 season. A T10 at Frys.com, a win at Shriners, T54 at Sanderson Farms, and a T34 last week at the OHL Classic mark his four appearances this fall. While Kizzire has attracted much of the attention, Kaufman has just delivered results, which is good for us because we have been on him every week. A really low price of $7,900 last week resulted in a 23% ownership. He ranks near the top of most of the key statistical categories for us and we like Smylie again this week and will be rostering quite a bit of him. (GPP and Cash Games)
Brian Harman- He had an auspicious start to the season with a missed cut at Frys.com, but since then he has made three consecutive cuts with a T56 at Shriners, T7 at CIMB, and T40 last week at OHL Classic. The Georgia Bulldog is a Sea Island resident and knows the courses very well. He has three appearances here at the McGladrey which resulted in a 41st last year, 10th in 2013, and 27th in 2012. Unfortunately I do not believe he will be flying way under the radar, but I also don’t think he will be super highly owned. I think he might surprise with a really nice finish this week, maybe even a Top 5, which would certainly pay of his price tag. (GPP and Cash Games)
Roberto Castro- A really good player who if you read our Top 10 Sleepers to Watch and have been rostering him you are very happy this Fall. Castro has made the cut in each event played and in his last two climbed up the leaderboard. A T69 at Frys.com, then a T43 at Shriners, then a T4 at Sanderson Farms, and a T25 last week at the OHL Classic. He has also made the cut in his two appearances in this event with a 69th last year and 27th in 2012. He hasn’t been rostered much either throughout DK contests at any point this Fall with his highest ownership being last week being around 10% contest wide. Keep rostering these guys off the Web.com Tour who are hungry and desperate to make cuts to keep their tour card and you will be rewarded. (GPPs and Cash Games)
Peter Malnati- As long as we are talking about guys off the Web.com who are hungry to make cuts and play well let’s talk about another one. He missed the cut in his first event (Frys.com), but since then he has a T56 at Shriners, a win at Sanderson Farms, and a T10 last week at the OHL Classic. This will be his first appearance at Sea Island. Last week on DK his price was extremely cheap at $7,400 off of his win and he still was only owned by 6% in most contests including the $3. That tells me he is still going to be under most people’s radars, which is surprising to me. I feel like with his low ownership he makes for a nice GPP play, but I also feel comfortable rostering him in cash games as well. (GPP and Cash Games)
Top Sleeper Picks:
Shawn O’Hair- Strictly a GPP pick this week because it is almost impossible to tell what this guy is going to do from week to week. He took T26 at Frys.com, but then turned around and missed the cut at Shriners. That has been the story with him over the past couple of years. Outside of 2013 when he missed the cut here at Sea Island, O’Hair has been good with a 17th last year, 20th in 2012, and 15th in 2011. At a real cheap price of $6,600, using him would free up some extra dollars for some other solid players. (GPP only)
Vaughn Taylor- When you are choosing from the lower price range the main goal is to find a guy that will make the cut and produce four days worth of points. Taylor served us very well in that area last season as he made 11 out of 12 cuts and actually had two Top 10s as well, while maintaining a price consistently in the low $7k range and sometimes high $6ks. He has one event played this Fall and that was Sanderson Farms where he took a T20. He has not played at Sea Island for a few years and when he did he did not have much success with two missed cuts. Still even with that, I still believe he is a solid cut making player this week and at that price should be rostered. (Some GPP but mostly cash games)
Jonathon Byrd- After an underwhelming 2014-2015 season which saw him make just 13 of 22 cuts with zero Top 10s, I look for Byrd to bounce back a bit this season and what better place than Sea Island, where Byrd calls home. Byrd missed the cut at Shriners, but bounced back with a T39 at Sanderson Farms. Last year he missed the cut in this event, but prior to that he had three made cuts (55th in 2013, 32 in 2010, and 66 in 2010. (Most GPP)
Fabian Gomez- Not too many people are going to own this guy, which makes him an intriguing option this week in GPPs. In the two events he has played this season he has a T17 at Frys.com and T16 at Shriners. He has made the cut both appearances at Sea Island with an 8th place finish last year and 64th in 2011. A real cheap price and low ownership are two key variables for a guy who we know has upside as well. (GPP only)
As always best of luck, let’s keep the winning going, and always be sure to keep us updated so we can send good Karma your way!
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