Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- The Players Championship

After a week of match play, the PGA Tour goes back to the traditional stroke play format this week at The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida for The Players Championship. This is always one of the year’s marquee events as it features every player in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings. Tiger Woods sees his first action since he tied for 17th at the Masters and Martin Kaymer will be defending his championship from last season when he outdueled Jim Furyk in the dark. Fresh off his WGC Cadillac Match Play championship, world #1 Rory McIlroy is in the field as well.

TPC Sawgrass is a par 72 course measuring 7,215 yards long, which is exactly the average length of all courses on tour this season. Its signature hole, is the one that everybody identifies TPC Sawgrass by, the par-3, 137-yard 17th, known as the “Island Green”. The hole is actually a peninsula, but surrounded by water nonetheless and the thousands of people behind the green add a huge level of exhilaration. Last year’s 28 balls in the water on the 17th was actually lower than the average which is 45 balls in the water since 2007. The course sprawls over 400 acres in the Florida swampland, and contains narrow fairways lined with marshes and dozens of deep pot bunkers. Thick rough will wreak havoc on stray tee shots as will palm trees, which will obstruct approach shots. The greens are always extremely speedy, which will reward the great putters and bury those that struggle with the flat stick. No two consecutive holes on the Stadium Course play in the same direction, doglegs were created in both directions and care was taken to offer both short and long holes of every par. There are four par 3 holes and four par 5 holes.

We at Fantasy Golf Insider have done a tremendous amount of research into what statistics are important this week and indicate success at TPC Sawgrass. The first statistic that we have found is important is greens in regulation (GIR). Six of the ten players highest ranked in greens in regulation last year finished in the Top 12 of the standings including champion Martin Kaymer who finished 3rd in GIR and runner-up Jim Furyk, who finished 2nd in GIR. These findings are consistent with previous years, including 2013, when the same number of players, six of the top ten highest ranked players in GIR finished in the Top 10 including champion Tiger Woods, who finished 3rd in (GIR). In 2012, champion Matt Kuchar ranked 3rd in GIR as well, are you seeing a trend? These are the types of insights that are invaluable and allow you to identify who will be successful in the upcoming tournament. The fact that TPC Sawgrass is not one of the longer courses on tour, coupled with the narrow fairways, we are going to be avoiding those players that lack accuracy of the tee and approaching the green. Putting is also a key metric this week and we will be making sure to only roster players who have the ability to putt well on these speedy, difficult greens. We will be targeting specifically those players that stand out in both greens in regulation and putting together.

We were wondering whether the guys who played through Sunday this past weekend will be able to bounce back and be effective at The Players. This includes Rory Mcllroy, Jim Furyk, Danny Willett, and Gary Woodland. Those players played seven rounds in five days with 72 holes played over the weekend then travel across country (California to Florida). We looked back to see how players who have played so much at the Match Play the previous weekend have fared immediately after in the next tournament. In 2014 and 2013, none of the final four players in the Match Play event played the following week. In 2012, Rory Mcllroy finished runner up in the WGC Match Play and then turned around and won The Honda Classic 7 days later. Also in 2012, Lee Westwood played through Sunday, placing 4th and turned around and placed 4th the following week at Honda. In 2011, Luke Donald won the Match Play and turned around and took T10 at Honda the following week. Also in 2011, Matt Kuchar placed 3rd at the Match Play and then T17 at Honda the following week. In 2010 Ian Poulter won the Match play and took T24 at Waste Management the following week. Also in 2010, Camillo Villegas played on Sunday and took 3rd at the Match Play and bounced back and took T8 at Waste Management the following week. Overall, although the sample size is small, it appears that players have not struggled bouncing back the following week and have actually thrived, leading us to believe that they are riding a wave of momentum. We are not going to place a tremendous amount of importance on the success of the players who finished well, but we are also not going to penalize them and avoid them completely.

Tournament history is always a key factor that we analyze every week and this week at TPC Sawgrass is no different. A few guys that have had a lot of success here in the past include Henrik Stenson (four Top 10s and a win in 2009), Jim Furyk (four career Top 10s and runner-up last year), and Sergio Garcia (two straight Top 10s and a win in 2008). For a complete tournament history for every player at The Players Championship, check out our tournament history page.

We promise that we will continue to out-work everybody in the industry to make our members successful and profitable in season long and daily fantasy golf. If there is anything that you would like to see us do or offer to our members, let us know and we will try to make it happen. As always, stick to solid lineup building, diversification, smart game selection, and disciplined bankroll management. See: How to win playing daily fantasy golf.

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This week on Draftkings, the pricing is ridiculously soft. When we refer to soft pricing, we mean the salaries are low and it is extremely easy to build a lineup with high quality/all-star type players and stay under the salary cap. Some of the prices of players on our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool are off the charts. When you can pick a guy like Patrick Reed for $700 under the average price for a player (average price for a player is $8,333, $50,000/ 6 players) you have soft pricing.  This is not necessarily a great thing for us and our readers, because we know information and pass it on to our premium members about lower priced and value type guys that the general public does not know, thus giving us the edge. When pricing is soft, it reduces that edge because you are not forced to dig down for those deep value plays, and you can just roster a bunch of studs. It is evident that Draftkings does this for large events, mostly to bring in the casual fan. Most casual fans like assembling all-star teams without having to do a lot of research or read valuable information like what we provide to our premium members. Regardless, we still need to work hard to identify those players that look to be great plays this week. A reminder for you DFS Tournament (GPP) players that finding guys that will have low ownership is a key to success. Here are some guys that stand out as ridiculously cheap and you would be able to fill a roster with on Draftkings: Jimmy Walker $8,800, Hidecki Matsuyama $8,800, Rickie Fowler $8,500, Brooks Koepka $8,100, and Sean O’Hair $7,600.

 

Top Stud Picks:

 

Jordan Spieth- Our most recommended player this year looked to be on cruise control in the WGC Match Play last week until the 17th hole in his third match when Lee Westwood birdied the par 3 and that was enough to send Spieth to Florida early. In his first two matches, Spieth rolled over Mikko Ilonen and Matt Every. Match Play is so very different than stroke play,that we need to ignore the result completely for Spieth. Check this out- in his three matches he played, Spieth went -6, -7, and -2 for a total of 15 under par through his three rounds. At the same time, Westwood went +1, -3, and -4 for a total of 6 under par. So if it were through three rounds of golf in a stroke play event Spieth would be up on Westwood by 9 strokes. We realize it is not an exact comparison because there are other variables, but impactful nonetheless in illustrating the difference between match play and stroke play, and The Players is stroke play so we love Spieth. We are actually going to go as far as asking you to ignore last week’s results completely from your mind for every golfer. In the 11 events that Spieth had played leading into the match play, he has made 10 cuts, including an incredible seven Top 10s. He has a T4 at Northern Trust, runner-ups at the Shell Houston Open and Valero, and won the Valspar and The Masters. He is dominating the Strokes Gained statistical category on the PGA Tour as he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 8th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 2nd in Total Strokes Gained. In his only appearance at The Players, Spieth placed 4th last year. We like Spieth in all formats again this week and expect a Top 10 with a run at the Championship. (GPP and Cash Game)

Rory Mcilroy- We are really glad that we recommended Rory last week in our preview of the WGC Match Play as he was one of the few bright spots. That event is so incredibly unpredictable and nearly impossible to consistently predict outcomes. Prior to last week, Mcilroy had a T9 at the WGC Cadillac, T11 at the Arnold Palmer, and 4th at The Masters. Up until two years ago Rory had missed the cut three times at The Players, but since then he had an 8th in 2013 and a 6th last year. As we mentioned before, playing a lot of rounds and holes in the past few days together with a trip across the country could take its toll on anybody. Based upon our research it has not shown to negatively impact guys in the past so we will give Rory the benefit of the doubt and say that he will be able to respond. At the same time we are also going to say not to load up on him completely in case he comes out flat. His price in DFS is expectedly  high and he will have to work hard to pay off his price-tag, but he is not unaffordable based upon the pricing on Draftkings.  (GPP)

Henrik Stenson- We are still hearing about this mysterious illness (flu) that Henrik has dealt with since before the Masters. This is very concerning and something that we continue to monitor closely. Stenson started on the PGA Tour white hot, but since his illness he has struggled a bit. If illness is not a factor, he is one of our favorite players this week at The Players. He has had a lot of success at TPC Sawgrass in the past with four Top 10s in 9 appearances including a 34th last year, 5th in 2013, and 15th in 2012. He also won this event in 2009. Statistically, he is one of the most dominate players on tour ranking 7th in driving accuracy, 3rd in greens in regulation, 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 1st in Strokes Gained Putting, and obviously 1st in Total Strokes Gained. He is the only one who ranks in the Top 10 of the two key stats we are looking at this week (GIR and Putting). Last weekend he was only 1-2 at the WGC Match Play beating Brendon Todd and losing to John Senden and Bill Haas. He gutted his way through the Masters with a T19 even though he was visibly not healthy. Before that he had three straight Top 5 finishes. Our best advice is to proceed with caution and stay tuned to see if we hear anything more about his health. If everything is fine, we look for Henrik to have a big week. For you DFS players, we would recommend dabbling with Stenson, but not going all in completely, because of the questions surrounding his health. (GPP only)

Lee Westwood- One of the best tournament histories of anybody, Westwood has five Top 10s in 12 career appearances and three in the past four years. He took 6th last year and 8th in 2013. Since coming over from the European Tour where he played extremely well, Westwood has kept the momentum going for the most part. A T25 at the Honda Classic, T12 at WGC Cadillac, T17 at Valspar, missed cut at Shell, and T46 at The Masters comprise his last five stroke play tournaments. Last week at the WGC Match Play Westwood disposed of Matt Every, Mikko Ilonen, and world #2 Jordan Spieth to advanced out of his pool. He then lost to Danny Willett in the round of 16 3 and 2. Westwood ranks 95th in greens in regulation, 23rd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 27th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 13th in Total Strokes Gained. (Mostly GPP, but can be sprinkled into some cash games)

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Kevin Na- We have been super high on Kevin Na, while others in the industry have ignored him. His results have rewarded us and our readers greatly with finishes of T12 at The Masters, T20 at Valero, T6 at Arnold Palmer, T10 at Valspar, and T9 at WGC Cadillac. As we mentioned earlier, we are going to ignore the match play event last week as the results are completely irrelevant for the upcoming stroke play events. Na has two Top 10s in eight career events here, including a 7th in 2012 and 3rd in 2009. Last year he finished in 38th place. Na ranks 30th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 93rd in Strokes Gained Putting, and 30th in Total Strokes Gained. He always seems to fly under the radar, which we like a lot especially in DFS as it allows us to separate from the field. We believe he has a good opportunity to put up a Top 20 this week again. (GPP and Cash Games)

Daniel Summerhays- Since missing a couple of cuts in late January, Summerhays has been putting together a really nice season. He has made 7 consecutive cuts including a T60 in his last event at the RBC Heritage, T4 at Valero, T55 at the Arnold Palmer, T10 at Valspar, and T17 at The Honda Classic. He ranks very well in putting this season at 11th in Strokes Gained Putting, which will be valuable this week. He also ranks 83rd in greens in regulation, 97th in driving accuracy, 78th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 27th in Total Strokes Gained. In his two appearance at The Players he has had a couple of impressive performances with a 23rd last year and a 26th in 2013. (GPP and Cash Games)

Harris English- Although English did not advance out of his pool in the WGC Match Play last week or make the cut in his last stroke play tournament at the Zurich Classic, we are not discouraged. If you look closely, he was actually 2-1 last week defeating Graeme Mcdowell and Shane Lowry and only losing by a stroke to Rickie Fowler. In addition he only missed the cut by one stroke at Zurich two weeks ago. Before that he had been playing rock sold making 10 cuts in 14 events with three Top 10s including a T10 at Valspar, T2 at Farmers, and T3 at the Sony Open. His three events at The Players have not produced stellar results for English with a missed cut last year, 33rd in 2013, and 64th in 2012. We really like how his statistics line up this week as he ranks 27th in greens in regulation, 42nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 31st in Strokes Gained Putting, and 22nd in Total Strokes Gained. (GPP and Cash Games)

Sean O’Hair- Another player who has been playing extremely well lately and we think sets up well to continue that trend at The Players. In the last two months O’Hair’s resume includes a T12 at Zurich, 6th at RBC Heritage, missed cut at Valero, T29 at Arnold Palmer, runner-up at Valspar, T25 at Honda Classic, T29 at AT&T Pebble Beach. O’Hair did not play in The Players last year but has had some success in the past with a 43rd in 2013, 19th in 2011, and 22nd in 2010. He ranks 83rd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 30th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 44th in Total Strokes Gained, 140th in greens in regulation, and 121st in driving accuracy. (GPP and Cash Games)

Russell Knox- His current form is solid with a T43 in his last outing at Zurich, T18 at RBC Heritage, missed cut at Valero, T29 at Arnold Palmer, T33 at Valspar, T3 at Honda. Statistically Knox looks tremendous this week as he ranks 30th in driving accuracy, 9th in greens in regulation, 40th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 74th in Strokes Gained Putting, 35th in Total Strokes Gained. His only appearance at TPC Sawgrass was last year when he took 34th. Knox has shown flashes of brilliance and the ability to put up low numbers. He has also shown the capability of playing extremely poorly and missing the cut. For that reason we like him mostly in GPPs for you DFS players. (Mostly GPP)

Shawn Stefani- We absolutely love the fact that we can count on a made cut from Stefani, and most of the time a T30. He has made 12 cuts in 14 events played, with seven Top 25s and two Top 10s. His last four tournaments have produced a T25 at the Shell Houston OpenT26 at Valero, T21 at Arnold Palmer, and T17 at Valspar. His only appearance at The Players was last year and he missed the cut. Statistically he ranks 27th in greens in regulation, 54th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 58th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 38th in Total Strokes Gained. (GPP and Cash Games)

Morgan Hoffman- It is hard to find a player who has been playing better over the past month than Morgan Hoffman. In his last tournament, he took T36 at Zurich, T9 at RBC Heritage, T28 at The Masters, and 4th at Arnold Palmer. In his only appearance at The Players, he took 17th last year. We like the fact that he can putt, as he ranks 39th in Strokes Gained Putting. In addition he ranks 35th in driving distance, 81st in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 48th in Total Strokes Gained. What concerns us is his lack of accuracy as he ranks 195th in driving accuracy and 187th in greens in regulation. (GPP and Cash Games)

Louis Oosthuizen- The final person we are going to mention, only because for you DFS players, he is the definition of a GPP play. In eight events played this season on the PGA tour he has either placed Top 20 or missed the cut. That my friends is boom or bust. Proceed with caution with Louis, but if you are looking for a wildcard to lead you to a large GPP win, he might be an option. (GPP only)

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Brendon De Jonge- A regular in this column, De Jonge will continue to be featured as long as he continues to perform the way he has. Normally not a sleeper play, however this week Draftkings has priced him at $6,500, which is severly underpriced and gives him a sleeper label. In his last performance he had a T22 at Zurich and before that he had a T18 at RBC Heritage, T5 at the Shell Houston Open, missed cut at Valero, T33 at Valspar, and T10 at Puerto Rico. Last year at The Players, he placed 70th and the two years previous to that he had 15th place finishes. Statistically we like what we see out of De Jonge as he ranks 25th in driving accuracy, 34th in greens in regulation, 42nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 80th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 37th in Total Strokes Gained. According to our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, De Jonge is an extreme value on Draftkings this week. For a complete list check out our sportsbook vs daily pricing page (GPP and Cash Games)

David Hearn- We featured Hearn as a sleeper pick for the Zurich Classic and he delivered an outstanding T6. Overall he has been extremely inconsistent this year making 10 cuts in 16 events played with six Top 25s and two Top 10s. In the events prior to Zurich, Hearn missed the cut at RBC Heritage, T25 at Shell, missed cut at Valero, T43 at Arnold Palmer, and T53 at Valspar. Hearn has played in this event three years and had finished progressively better each year with a 68th in 2012, 26th in 2013, and a 6th last year. 46th in greens in regulation, 47th in Strokes Gained Putting, Hearn is not dynamic off the tee as he ranks 163 in driving distance and 104 in driving accuracy. He ranks 115th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. (GPP only)

Kevin Kisner- Despite his breakout runner-up performance at RBC Heritage, we think that Kisner is still going to be under most people’s radars and he is underpriced throughout the DFS industry. In his last event, Kisner placed T28 at Zurich. After missing four consecutive cuts in late January/early February, Kisner has made 6 cuts in his last 7 events. He has not played at The Players before. He ranks 34th in driving accuracy, 94th in greens in regulation, 69th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 109th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 73rd in Total Strokes Gained. We would not advise you to put him in your cash game lineups in DFS, but if you are looking to roster Rory or Spieth and need some salary cap relief from a guy who can give you a made cut and possibly more, take a close look at Kisner this week. (GPP only)

Stewart Cink- We might be getting greedy and going to the well to many times with Mr. Cink, but the first two times we recommended him this year he has come up huge for us with great performances. Now don’t get us wrong, we are not expecting a Top 20 performance this week, but we are thinking he has the opportunity to make the cut and maybe put up a Top 50, which in DFS would be good for his pricetag. He has played in this event a whopping 17 times, so he knows the territory. Cink has made the cut in 5 of his last 7 appearances here with a 38th last year. He always shines in the greens in regulation category and he currently ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour. He is also 97th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 80th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 86th in Total Strokes Gained. Cink has made the cut in 4 out of his last 5 tournament, with his most recent being a T31 at RBC Heritage. A salary saver and a possible cut-maker is what Stewart Cink is offering us this week. (GPP only)

 

As always best of luck to all of you and please let us know how you are doing. Our mission is to make you a successful and profitable fantasy golf player and will do anything it takes to get you there.