Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- The Open Championship
The course at Royal Troon has been described as “six dull holes, six exciting holes and six dull holes” by many who have played it, and the hole you’ll probably hear the most about this week will be the 8th hole dubbed “Postage Stamp” – 123 yard Par 3 that plays much tougher than it sounds as the green is very small (like an actual postage stamp) and depending on the wind, players will either be hitting a wedge or a mid-iron; yes that’s quite the difference in club selection. The rough is thick and wispy, so players will still need to be accurate off the tee and be creative when attempting to hit out of the rough. Players who have won here in the past include Todd Hamilton (has only made the cut in four majors since his victory, Justin Leonard, Mark Calcavecchia, Tom Weiskopf, and Arnold Palmer (so basically good golfers in their days, with the exception of the fluke win by Hamilton).
TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND
o The Course
• Royal Troon Golf Club
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,190
• Greens: Browntop Bentgrass / Poa Annua blend
o Location: Ayrshire, United Kingdom – Scotland
o Expected scoring: The weather will dictate how low scores get, but we shouldn’t see anything too difficult this week. As usual we’ll be targeting good wind players as well as par 4 and par 5 scorers. I haven’t been keeping track of my predictions on winning scores the past few weeks, but I’d venture to guess the winning score will be around 9 under par this week unless it’s really windy, in which case it might be even higher (meaning closer to even par).
o Past Champions (dating back to 2000):
• 2015 – Zach Johnson -15 playoff over Marc Leishman & Louis Oosthuizen
• 2014 – Rory McIlroy -17 over Rickie Fowler & Sergio Garcia
• 2013 – Phil Mickelson -3 over Henrik Stenson
• 2012 – Ernie Els -7 over Adam Scott
• 2011 – Darren Clarke -5 over Dustin Johnson & Phil Mickelson
• 2010 – Louis Oosthuizen -16 over Lee Westwood
• 2009 – Stewart Cink -2 playoff over Tom Watson
• 2008 – Padraig Harrington +3 over Ian Poulter
• 2007 – Padraig Harrington -7 playoff over Sergio Garcia
• 2006 – Tiger Woods -18 over Chris DiMarco
• 2005 – Tiger Woods -14 over Colin Montgomerie
• 2004 – Todd Hamilton -10 playoff over Ernie Els
• 2003 – Ben Curtis -1 over Thomas Bjorn & Vijay Singh
• 2002 – Ernie Els -6 playoff over Stuart Appleby, Steve Elkington & Thomas Levet
• 2001 – David Duval -10 over Niclas Fasth
• 2000 – Tiger Woods -19 over Thomas Bjorn & Ernie Els
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KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, Greens In Regulation, Par 4 Scoring, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance
o Important – SG:Putting, SG:ARG, Driving Accuracy, Sand Saves %, Total Driving, Par 5 Scoring, Birdie or Better
STARS:
Dustin Johnson (DK $12,000)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: WIN – WIN – 5th – 3rd – 12th – 28th – 4th – 3rd – 14th
• Stats: 91.6 – DK FPPG, 2nd – SG:OTT, 10th – SG: APP, 2nd – SG:T2G, 38th – SG:P, 2nd – DD, 30th – GIR, 3rd – Birdie Avg, 34th – TD, 2nd – Prox, 77th – Scrambling, 2nd – Birdie or Better Conversion
• Other – Alas we have a similar situation to Jason Day earlier this year, the dreaded “will he win three in a row?” If you’re in the camp that thinks he can’t and that he won’t finish in the Top 5, move along. If you’re in the yes camp, he’s where you start your lineups this week especially for GPPs. He hasn’t missed a cut yet this year so he’s in play for cash, and his worst finish since the NTO still netted him a cool 72 DK points (about 30 less than meeting value). DJ’s playing the best he’s ever played week after week and I think he warrants some serious consideration even in this stacked field.
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,900)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 3rd (Open De France) – MC – 4th – WIN (Irish Open) – 12th – 4th – 10th – 27th
• Stats: 83.9 – DK FPPG, 1st – SG:OTT, 78th – SG:APP, 21st – SG:ARG, 3rd – SG:T2G, 61st – SG:P, 11th – DD, 81st – DA, 24th – GIR, 2nd – Birdie Avg, 8th – TD, 27th – TDE, 83rd – Scrambling, 3rd – Birdie or Better Conversion
• Other – Rory bounced back last week in France (mainly because of the lack of talent around him), but couldn’t close the door on Thongchai Jaidee, and yet again didn’t meet value. Instead of dwelling on the disappointment, I think we need to look at how his game has come around since missing the cut at the US Open (where his iron play really ruined his chances) and he was able to turn good drives into even better birdie opportunities. Rory’s been a beast in Open Championships the past five years and I don’t think that changes this year.
Sergio Garcia (DK $10,000)
• Course History: MC (2004)
• Form: 5th – 5th – WIN – 54th – 3rd – 34th – 72nd – 11th – 2nd –
• Stats: 78.1 – DK FPPG, 11th – SG:OTT, 5th – SG: APP, 11th – SG:T2G, 114th – SG:P, 27th – DD, 98th – DA, 2nd – GIR, 10th – Birdie Avg, 57th – Sand Saves, 18th – TD, 151st – Scrambling, 35th – Birdie or Better Conversion
• Other – Speaking of beasts in Open Championships, look no further than my guy Sergio who has nine Top 10’s in Open Championships dating back to 2001, that’s filthy. His ball striking will undoubtedly be on display as usual, the only concern here is his putting which has seemed to improve over the past few weeks. I’m not expecting a win by any means, (if he does I’d be extremely happy for him to finally get that first major) but anything inside the Top 10 and 90+ DK points is where I’m projecting him this week.
ALSO CONSIDER – Jordan Spieth (DK $11,700) – Jordan is in a really good spot again this week as a low ownership candidate. I may be wrong after his “never in contention Top 3” at Firestone, and I feel like no matter what the buzz is around him and his game he still gets about 15-20% ownership in GPP’s. Regardless, you can either go overweight or right around 20% this week and I wouldn’t argue with the play, his game sets up well with this course layout. Adam Scott ($10,600) – At this price you’re getting a bargain for a premier player. He’s cooled off since his hot start at the beginning of the year, but Scott is no slouch when it comes to links play. Since 2001, he’s only missed three cuts at the Open Championship and has five Top 10’s – including three Top 5’s in his last four (and finished T10 last year).Branden Grace (DK $9,700) – Grace has been trending upwards again after a few so-so finishes on the PGA Tour (including a Top 5 finish at the US Open at Oakmont) and continues to keep his arrow pointing upwards. The issue here is he’ll be highly touted this week, so if you’re not willing to overweight your Grace shares you may want to drop down to Henrik Stenson (DK $9,500) who also boasts a good record in Open Championships (three Top 3’s, 9/11 cuts made since 2005) and comes in hot off a “never in contention” Top 15 at the Scottish Open.
VALUE PLAYS:
Lee Westwood (DK $8,500)
• Course History: 4th (2004)
• Form: 11th – 32nd – 8th – 15th – 10th – 2nd – MC – MC – MC – 28th
• Stats: 57.3 – DK FPPG, 71.94 – Stroke Avg, 56.02% – Driving Accuracy, 286.50 yards – DD, 63.89% – GIR, 29.29 – putts/rd
• Other – Another English lad who has seen a lot of success in his home country’s Open, Westwood has five Top 10’s since 1997 including two 3rd’s and a 2nd place finish and even came in 4th here in 2004. Westwood has played primarily on the European Tour this year due to some personal issues, but he’s been playing really well and looks to be in the best form that I can remember. Westy’s had a good run in majors thus far so I expect his ownership to be fairly high this week, fading in GPP’s might be a good idea.
Matt Kuchar (DK $7,800)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 3rd – 46th – 4th – 6th – 3rd – 3rd – 42nd – 9th – 24th – MC
• Stats: 74.8 – DK FPPG, 39th – SG: OTT, 31st – SG:APP, 33rd – SG:ARG, 12th – SG:T2G, 24th – SG:P, 144th – DD, 28th – DA, 29th – GIR, 14th – Birdie Avg, 58th – TD, 39th – TDE, 18th – Scrambling, 29th – Birdie Or Better Conversion
• Other – The Open Championship has not been friendly to Kuch, but he has made the cut in all but one appearance (2011) and has three Top 30’s with a T9 in 2012. Based on his results you could argue this setup is the worst for his game, but his form looks way too tempting to fade him this week. Known primarily as a cut maker, I think his price may make him a very chalky play this week which is fine for cash games, but you may want to swerve when making your GPP lineups.
Justin Thomas (DK $7,500)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 33rd – 12th – 32nd – MC – 3rd – MC – 75th – 39th – 18th – 35th
• Stats: 65.7 – DK FPPG, 104th – SG:OTT, 28th – SG: APP, 140th – SG:ARG, 68th – SG:T2G, 21st – DD, 106th – GIR, 29th – Birdie Avg, 75th – Sand Saves, 97th – TD, 20th – TDE, 165th – Scrambling, 21st – Birdie or Better Conversion
• Other – JT is too good of a player to be ignored at this price mainly because of the upside he presents from a scoring perspective. He made 17 birdies at the US Open (which was easier than anticipated, but still difficult to say the least) and backed that up with 21 birdies at the Quicken Loans (where the course also played tougher than many anticipated). If he can keep those kinds of numbers up in his inaugural Open, I like his chances the most out of any players in this price range this week.
ALSO CONSIDER – Chris Wood (DK $7,600) – Wood withdrew after lineup lock last week and even though he wasn’t very chalky, the WD stung many on Twitter. I personally wasted money in DFS and in betting him as an outright winner, but I’m still going back to him this week. DFS regulars will be drawn to Justin Thomas at $100 cheaper, especially in cash games, but Wood makes for a prime GPP candidate due to the withdraw and how he’s played in his past four events (11th – 23rd – 6th – Win). Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman may have surprised a few people last year by posting a low round and making it to the playoff, only to lose to Zach Johnson, but his ball striking and consistent play was rewarded and should be considered again this year. Statistically speaking, Leishman checks many boxes from tee to green and his ability to plot his way around this course should be rewarded again this year. Scott Piercy (DK $7,400) – There’s no doubt he’ll be a popular play this week and with good reason (coming off back to back 2nd place finishes), but I think he’s very comfortable with his game and he even mentioned how much better he typically plays during this part of the PGA Tour season on the Tour Junkies podcast. Asking for another Top 2 might be a stretch, but at his price he should reach value with anything inside the Top 20 (assuming he doesn’t find a ticket to the bogey train). Take a look at Andy Sullivan (DK $7,200). Sullivan has a knack for links courses and has played fairly well this year on such courses (T6 – Scottish Open, T23 – US Open, T30 at last year’s Open Championship). This is the kind of value you’re going to need to push your lineups beyond minimum cashing, and Sullivan has the upside to finish inside the Top 25 this week. I think his ownership may see a minor spike amongst DFS regulars (those that actually pay attention to the Euro Tour), but I don’t think it’ll be enough to warrant any type of strategy change on playing/fading him.
DEEP DIVERS:
Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $6,900)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 21st – 4th – 32nd – 52nd – 22nd – 8th – MC – 16th – 17th – 4th – 11th
• Stats: 73.3 – DK FPPG,
• Other – RCB is 3/5 cuts made in the Open Championship since 2012 and looks to have turned the page on his mini slump of a few weeks ago. He’s a form player who seems to get in a nice groove once things start to click and we get him at a hefty discount this week. He should be considered for cash and GPP’s this week.
David Lingmerth (DK $6,700)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: MC – 7th – 12th – 27th – 22nd – MC – MC – 17th – 33rd – MC
• Stats: 62.5 – DK FPPG, 41st – SG:OTT, 64th – SG:APP, 54th – SG:T2G, 101st – SG:P, 137th – DD, 15th – DA, 95th – GIR, 49th – Birdie Avg, 37th – TD, 32nd – TDE, 82nd – Scrambling, 53rd – Birdie or Better Conversion
• Other – Lingmerth is another one of those guys that consistently floats under the radar week to week and we’re just fine with that. He doesn’t do anything really exceptional, but he does everything at an above average level, when his putter gets warm he tends to really show the world how he’s won over $6 million in just three years on the PGA Tour (most notably last year when he won at Memorial). This year his play has been sneaky good, and I think he’s finally got the confidence in himself that he can play with the best in the world, which is indicated by his four missed cuts this year (as opposed to the 34 missed cuts over the past 3 years). He got the bad end of the draw at the Scottish Open and didn’t bounce back like I thought he might, but the missed cut should give him ample time to scope out Troon and get in some additional practice time.
Jon Rahm (DK $6,600)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 3rd – 23rd – 10th
• Stats: 85.7 – DK FPPG (doesn’t meet criteria yet for PGA Stats)
• Other – Rahm’s still a bit of an unknown commodity, but hailing from Spain has to play to his benefit as I can only assume Sergio, Rafa and Jose Maria Olazabal have taken him under their wings prior to this week to help initiate him as part of the new the class of Spanish golfers. He’s still considered a shiny toy for DFS players and at his price I’m sure he’ll see a nice chunk of ownership, but I don’t think it’ll be high enough to fade him completely as he seems to setup well here (as indicated by his performance at Oakmont a few weeks ago and two weeks ago in Reno).
ALSO CONSIDER – Kevin Kisner (DK $6,700) – Oh hey, remember this guy? Kisner’s been very quiet as of late and his price tag is reflective of the lack of noise he’s making, but not reflective of how well he’s playing. After posting a T10 at the Dean & Deluca, Kisner MC’d at Memorial, T49 at Oakmont, and posted a T16 at Firestone; the impressive part of these results obviously is the T16 in a very strong field, but his play at the US Open is what really stands out to me considering he was coming off a missed cut and on a course he hadn’t played competitively. Joost Luiten (DK $6,500) – The Joost is loose again this week! Joost has been the most consistent player on the European Tour this year and now we’re getting him at a $3,000 discount. Joost has made 13/16 cuts, has eight Top 10’s this year and placed T16 at the BMW International, T27 at the PGA BMW Championship (what some view as a major on the European Tour), and 2nd at the Open De Espana (held at Valderrama which is a strong test of golf). Don’t hesistate to throw Joost in a few lineups this week. I anticipate his ownership to be a bit lower after his putrid showing at the Scottish Open. I think Matt Jones (DK $6,000) could be a really sneaky play as a final piece to your roster. His recent play hasn’t been the greatest, but his T16 at the WGC gives me hope as well as his history on links courses, specifically in major championships – T21 at Whistling Straits, T30 at last year’s Open and T54 the year prior. Callum Shinkwin ($5,400) – If you’ve been playing European Tour DFS you’re privy to young Callum. If not, allow me to introduce you to him. Shinks is a rookie to the European Tour this year and is making a fairly good impression on me (as I’ve basically written him up every week since week 2). He’s a bomber who’s made 10/13 cuts and has been a fairly good birdie maker as well (he’s averaging about 13.5 birdies in events where he plays all four days). If you’re looking for a really cheap guy that’ll have sub 2% ownership, Shinks is your man.
GPP PLAYS:
Martin Kaymer (DK $8,400)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: T13 – T5 – T37 – T7 – T5 – T39 – T41 – T6 – T49
• Stats: 59.3 – DK FPPG, 287.9 yards – DD, 58.56% – DA, 61.54% – GIR, 3.50 – Birdie Avg, 71.37 – Scoring avg, 16.92% – P4 BoB, 35.42% – P5 BoB (stats from PGA Tour where he hasn’t played enough rounds to qualify for actual ranking of stat)
• Other – Martin Kaymer is a very smart golfer who plays the game as if he were playing chess, and from the research I’ve been doing on Royal Troon, this is exactly the type of player we’ll want to consider rostering this week. Kaymer’s record in British Opens isn’t going to knock your socks off, but he has been very consistent at making the cut and showing some decent upside. Martin has made 7 of 8 cuts since 2008 including a T7 in 2010 and T12’s in 2011 & 2015. The thing I really like about him is his ability to avoid the occasional blowup hole that takes a player out of a tournament. I really think he may be the piece this week to unlocking a boatload of money.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,400)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 14th – 54th – 11th – 55th – MC – 61st – 17th – 17th – 47th
• Stats: 62.2 – DK FPPG, 35th – SG:OTT, 82nd – SG:APP, 70th – SG:T2G, 63rd – DD, 14th – DA, 33rd – GIR, 38th – Birdie Avg, 1st – TD, 107th – TDE, 58th – Birdie or Better Conversion
• Other – Like Justin Thomas, Grillo makes his Open Championship debut this week and comes in with some very good form. His scoring hasn’t been the greatest over the past few weeks (comprared to what it was back in May), but it sure seems like the right time to get back on the wagon (hopefully before everyone else does too). I really liked what I saw out of him at the US Open and his ability to grind out holes after making a few mistakes and not letting the course get the better of him. He’ll need that focus again this week just as much as he’ll need the flat stick to be working in his favor like it did at the WGC and Memorial.
ALSO CONSIDER – Jason Day (DK $12,300) – He’s close again and given the chance, I don’t think he lets this Open slip away like last year. He’s one of the best in the game in multiple facets so it’s just a formality of him sealing the deal here this week. Danny Willett (DK $9,200) – Willett has been going through a bit of a slump since his Masters victory (especially on the European Tour where he’s been a favorite), but being back home in the UK may bring some good mojo back this week. His ball striking and driving will need to be much sharper this week if he plans on living up to that price tag (which is the main reason I see low ownership on him this week). Bubba Watson (DK $8,000) – We all know he doesn’t perform well across the pond, but this suggestion is based solely on him making the cut at an absurd low ownership this week. He’s kind of limping under the radar right now and if his game clicks and he’s able to keep himself at bay, he could make for a very nice GPP play this week. I can’t emphasize enough that he should not be part of your core, but more so as an interchangeable piece at his price in about 10-20% of your GPP lineups in the event he actually keeps his shit together for four rounds. Jordan Niebrugge (DK $5,800) is an interesting play at his price tag. He has no history and no form to speak of (MC @ Quicken Loans), but he was in the same situation last year at St. Andrews and ended up shocking a lot of DFS players with his stellar performance where he ended up finishing T6 and a few shots out of the playoff. David Duval (DK $5,200) – He was on the winning millionaire maker team last year (not that that’s a reason to play him this year) and who knows how the state of his game is at the moment, but he’s worth a flier at this price.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!
– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)
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