Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- The Memorial Tournament

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw), FGI Columnist

OVERVIEW
When Jack Nicklaus designed this course he had visions of Augusta National with a hint of a course that played to his strength of fading the ball off the tee. Players can work the ball both ways off the tee, so that’s not to say this is considered a “fader’s course”, but it may suit the eyes of some players who primarily hit a fade off the tee, and actually, when looking at the former winners would indicate that hitting a draw off the tee is the preferred ball flight. The most notable of all champions is the five time champion Tiger Woods who won in 2012, 2009, 2000 – 1999 (yes, he successfully defended his title twice here – he was so good). American players have accounted for 17 champions since 1990 and outside of Tiger, Kenny Perry is the only other champion to win more than two times (3x winner – also plays a draw off the tee). 120 players are invited to the event which usually draws a very strong field as you have to be in the Top 50 in the World Golf Rankings or Top 70 in the Fed Ex Cup, are a previous winner of this event the past five years, last year’s US & British amateur winners, and last year’s college player of the year (named the Jack Nicklaus award, naturally).

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

The Course
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,392
Greens: Bentgrass
Location: Dublin, Ohio
Expected scoring: some years we’ll see really low scoring and some years we’ll see moderate scoring. The average winning score is 13 under par, so I’d say if conditions allow for low scores it could be around the -18 range, and if they don’t we’ll probably see it around 10 to 12 under par.

Past Champions (dating back to 2005):
2015 – David Lingmerth (playoff over/ Justin Rose) -15
2014 – Hideki Matsuyama (playoff over/ Kevin Na) -13
2013 – Matt Kuchar -12
2012 – Tiger Woods -9
2011 – Steve Stricker -16
2010 – Justin Rose -18
2009 – Tiger Woods -12
2008 – Kenny Perry -8
2007 – KJ Choi -17
2006 – Carl Pettersson -12

KEY STATS TO TARGET

Strong Emphasis – Strokes Gained Tee to Green/Total Driving, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring
Important – Scrambling, Total Putting, P4 Birdie or Better %, P5 Birdie or Better %

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The Picks:

STARS

Jason Day (DK $12,400) – Jason Day wins tournaments in bunches, he’s won three events this year (Arnold Palmer, Match Play Championships, and THE PLAYERS), considers this his home course and in my opinion, is the most complete player on the PGA Tour right now. There are no weaknesses in his game and when things are clicking, he’ll run away from the field just like Tiger did so many times. I have a feeling his ownership may be fairly high this week so if you’re into fading a player of his caliber it could be one extreme or the other this week (either all of the monies or none).

Course History: MC – 37th – 41st – MC – 33rd – 27th – MC
Form: Win (PLAYERS), T5 (Zurich – 54 holes), T23 (RBC Heritage – led thru 36), T10 (Masters), Win (API)
Stats: 24th – Scrambling, 3rd – P4 Scoring, 5th – P5 Scoring, 13th SG:T2G
Other – Day’s 6/9 in Top 10 finishes/Made cuts and has only missed one cut this year (as defending champion at Farmers). His floor appears to be a Top 25 finish this year and at his price he wouldn’t be considered reaching value if that’s the end result. I don’t typically like to pay up in cash, but his game is clicking and if you can stomach the players you have around him I see no reason to fade for cash (love him for GPP’s).

 

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,100) – Dustin has been one of the most consistent golfers on the planet this year and even though he hasn’t won yet, he’s very close to breaking through for the first time this year. Dustin is 11/11 in cuts made this year with six Top 10’s. Normally I only consider him for GPP’s due to his high upside, but this week I’ll be considering him for both GPP’s & Cash due to his consistent cut making ability. He’s also playing much better on courses he’s historically played bad on this year, which may make him a very nice contrarian play in GPP’s.

Course History: 13th – 46th – MC – 19th – 4th – 33rd – 14th – 68th
Form: T12 (AT&T Byron Nelson), T28 (PLAYERS), T4 (Masters), 3rd (Shell), T14 (WGC-Cadillac), 4th (NTO)
Stats:73rd – Scrambling, 4th – P4 Scoring, 17th – P5 Scoring, 7th – SG:T2G
Other – As mentioned above, DJ’s finishing Top 10 at ~60% this year, to add to that all but one of those Top 10’s were Top 5’s. If you don’t want to pay up for Day, DJ is your next best/most consistent option with immense upside.

 

Matt Kuchar (DK $9,900) – Kuch has been on a tear as of late and if you look below, he’s the captain of #TeamCH. A few weeks ago Kuchar’s only Top 10 finishes came on Pete Dye courses, fast forward a couple weeks and he’s the proud owner of three consecutive Top 10’s including back-to-back 3rd place finishes. Kuch is grooving it at the moment and playing well on tracks he has played well on in the past, don’t overlook him this week.

Course History: 26th – 15th – WIN – 2nd – 8th – 5th – 10th – 13th
Form: 6th (D&D) – 3rd (Byron Nelson) – 3rd (PLAYERS) – 42nd – 9th – 24th
Stats: 26th – Scrambling, 12th – P4 Scoring, 17th – P5 Scoring, 15th – SG:T2G
Other – As mentioned above, Kuchar has been rolling it pretty well regardless of course setup and even though last year’s result was less than desired, he wasn’t playing as well coming into this event as he is this year. I like him as a 2nd option in both cash & GPP’s this week.

 

VALUE PLAYS

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10M) – His price may indicate that he’s not considered a “value play”, but if he’s not the most expensive player in the field he’s always considered a value in my opinion. Mats is a former winner here, has showed he can close on Sundays with his win at the WMPO, and played extremely well thru 68 holes at The Masters. I can’t see any reason not to play him in cash or GPP’s due to his ability to make cuts and finish in the Top 10 in said made cuts (5/11 cuts made have resulted in a Top 10 finish).

Course History: 5th – 1st
Form: T7 (PLAYERS), T11 (Wells Fargo), T7 (Masters), T6 (API), T35 (WGC-Cadillac)
Stats: 60th – Scrambling, 4th – P4 Scoring, 22nd – P5 Scoring, 5th – SG:T2G
Other – Matsuyama plays a draw off the tee with both driver & three wood which seems to play to his favor here. The year he won, he beat Kevin Na in a playoff after breaking his driver on the 18th tee when slamming it down in disgust (the tee shot was just fine). Matsuyama ripped 3-Wood down the left hand side of the fairway and made par while Na pull hooked his drive in the hazard and had no chance to win.

 

Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,000) – Very quietly Charl Schwartzel is having a very good year on the PGA Tour. Charl’s 9/10 in cuts made and even though he hasn’t sniffed a Top 10 since his win at Valspar, his consistency screams cash games. He’s often overlooked in general and possesses the upside to make a run on the weekend so I think he makes for a very nice GPP play this week as well.

Course History: MC – 8th – 8th – 19th – 22nd – 27th – 62nd – 62nd
Form: 25th (D&D) – 58th (Byron Nelson) – MC (Masters) – T13 (Shell) – WIN (Valspar) – T17 (WGC – Cadillac)
Stats: 13th – Scrambling, 33rd – P4 Scoring, 76th – P5 Scoring, 11th – SG:T2G
Other – Charl’s consistent play can be attributed to his ability to hit greens and when he misses, his ability to get up and down for par (hence scrambling rank).

 

Kevin Chappell (DK $7,500) – Last week was “chalk Chappell week” and of course he ended up missing the cut, but had one or two more players bogeyed prior to the cut he would’ve had another day to make a run. I’m not trying to make excuses, but you should be aware of how solid his game has been this year and if it weren’t for Jason Day, Chappell may be a two-time champion this year. Put your biases aside this week as Chappie’s course history and most of his current form indicate a nice bounce back this week.

Course History: 49th – MC – 2nd – MC – 37th – MC
Form: MC (D&D), 2nd (PLAYERS), T41 (Wells Fargo), T4 (Valero), T9 (RBC Heritage), MC (Shell), 2nd (API)
Stats: 46th – Scrambling, 33rd – P4 Scoring, 41st – P5 Scoring, 9th – SG:T2G
Other – Chappie has bounced back in every tournament following a missed cut this year except for the AT&T Pebble following his missed cut at WMPO. He was T62 at Shriners and T9 at Heritage following his MC at Shell, based on those results I can’t suggest him for cash – GPP only.

 

DEEP DIVERS

David Hearn (DK $6,700) – Hearn is playing as though he’s fighting for the title of #1 Canadian golfer consistently finishing in the Top 25 is a very nice attribute out of a player who’s priced as cheap as Hearn is this week. He doesn’t have a ton of history here, but in four trips he’s made three cuts and has finished inside the Top 30 in all of those instances.
Course History: MC – 28th – 21st – 25th
Form: 17th (D&D) – T28 (PLAYERS) – MC (WF) – T20 (Zurich) – T13 (Valero) – MC (Heritage) – T46 (Shell)
Stats: 58th – Scrambling, 44th – P4 Scoring, 154th – P5 Scoring, 71st – SG:T2G
Other – Given his upside this year as well as his ability to consistently make cuts, I have no issues playing Hearn in all formats this week.

 

John Senden (DK $6,600) – Senden isn’t exactly a sexy pick, and if you’re not interested in Friday cut sweats he may not be the play, but if he’s able to avoid toying with the cut line come Friday he makes for a very low upside cash play who has shown flashes of the ability to finish well this year (most recently at the Wells Fargo Championship).

Course History: 57th – 57th – MC – 7th – 33rd – 53rd – 67th – 45th
Form: MC (D&D), T41 (Byron Nelson), MC (PLAYERS), T17 (WF) – T20 (Zurich) – MC (Valero) – T23 (Heritage)
Stats: 101st – Scrambling, 63rd – P4 Scoring, 59th – P5 Scoring, 87th – SG:T2G
Other – I’m only suggesting the Robocop doppelganger for cash only this week.

 

Robert Streb (DK $6,200) – Streb got off to a horrible start this year and his stat rankings reflect that play, so I wouldn’t put too much stock in where he ranks in the field this week as this suggestion is based solely on his improved play of late and taking advantage of his low price tag.

Course History: 18th – 28th
Form: MC (D&D) – 71st (Byron Nelson) – MC (PLAYERS) – T17 (WF) – T20 (Zurich) – MC (Valero) – T23 (Heritage)
Stats: 168th – Scrambling, 168th – P4 Scoring, 76th – P5 Scoring, 68th – SG:T2G
Other – The main reason I’m looking at Streb is his price, but after looking at his form, he seems to figure it out the week coming off a missed cut (even dating back to his MC at the Frys in October 2016). I’m not sure if I’d consider him for cash unless I absolutely loved all five around him so he’ll be reserved for GPPs this week.

 

CALCULATED GPP DART THROWS

Gary Woodland (DK $8,000)

Course History: MC – 57th – 16th – MC – 6th
Form: T12 (Byron Nelson), T28 (PLAYERS), T24 (WF), T20 (Zurich), T33 (Shell), MC (API)
Stats: 133rd – Scrambling, 44th – P4 Scoring, 5th – P5 Scoring, 17th – SG:T2G
Other – Since making the switch back to Butch Harmon as his swing coach/instructor, Woodland’s game has vastly improved. I really like how he’s played here in the past, and the way he’s been churning out Top 30 finishes each week indicates he’s due for continued success this week.

Charles Howell III (DK $7,400)

Course History: 31st – 57th – 21st – 22nd – MC – MC – WD – MC – 61st
Form: T4 (Byron Nelson), MC (PLAYERS), MC (WF), T11 (Zurich), T23 (Heritage), T7 (Shell), T46 (API)
Stats: 23rd – Scrambling, 9th – P4 Scoring, 14th – P5 Scoring, 42nd – SG:T2G
Other – CH3 has been a staple of my cash & GPP lineups for a vast majority of the season and this week will be no different. I’m willing to overlook the MC’s & WD from early on in his career as it took young Howell the third awhile to figure out how to play on Tour. Statistically he’s about as good as it gets and at only $7,400 he doesn’t break the bank either.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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