Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- The Memorial Tournament

This week the PGA Tour takes us to Dublin, Ohio and Muirfield Village Golf Club for the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide. Built by Jack Nicklaus and opened in May 1974, Muirfield Village is always ranked as one of the Top courses in America. It is a Par 72 and measures 7,392 yards long (150 yards longer than the average course on tour). The course is lined with tons of trees and has water hazards on nearly every hole.

An important aspect to note this week is that the size of the field is only 120 players. This is because The Memorial Tournament is one of five tournaments that has been given invitational status, which means they have more freedom than full-field open tournaments in determining which players are eligible to participate in their event, as invitational tournaments are not required to fill their fields using the PGA Tour Priority Ranking System. What this means to us fantasy golf players is that it will be easier for players to make the cut as the cutline remains with the Top 70 golfers.

Year after year Jack’s tournament brings out the best players in the world and this year is no different. Fifteen of the Top 25 players in the world rankings are in the field including defending champ Hideki Matsuyama, world #2 Jordan Spieth, and The Players champ Rickie Fowler. Tiger Woods will also be making one of his few appearances this season at Muirfield.  Last year Matsuyama earned his first PGA Tour victory by forcing a playoff with a birdie at the 18th hole and defeating Kevin Na with a par on the first extra hole. Na had completed his round nearly two hours earlier. The two hour break obviously affected Na as he found the creek left of the 18th fairway in the playoff.

Last week we had some good recommendations and some bad recommendations, and we nailed some guys in all three categories: studs, value, and sleepers. Withdrawals obviously ran rampant and several of the guys we recommended pulled out right before Thursday. Since Jason Day withdrew we had three studs. One of those was Dustin Johnson who might have won the tournament had it not been for his quadruple bogey in his final round on Sunday, which even with that he finished T8. We also recommended Ryan Palmer, who people were avoiding like the plague after his performance at Colonial, but we were happy, because we took advantage of the low ownership and his T10 to benefit. Spieth played fine although not nearly up to his standards or pricetag in DFS, which we mentioned that it would be very difficult for him to pay off his price. Value picks Brooks Koepka ( T16), Justin Thomas (T55 ), and Russell Henley (T22 ) all made the cut for us, but Leishman, Todd, and Steele, disappointed us thoroughly and missed the cut. Sleeper pick Will Wilcox shined as he finished T24. We also recommended Scott Brown and he gave us a T41. We will continue to strive to outwork, outperform, and supply our members the most relevant information in the fantasy golf industry. Be sure to always stick to solid lineup building, diversification, smart game selection, and disciplined bankroll management. See: How to win playing daily fantasy golf.

Every week we look first and foremost at the Strokes Gained Statistic, with the emphasis on Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green as it has proven the most predictive of success of all the statistics. If you have not read our articles written about the Strokes Gained statistic and how valuable it is in predicting success, check them out here: Do Statistics Really Matter in Fantasy Golf. In analyzing past years results at The Memorial Tournament it is clear that greens in regulation is a very important statistic that needs to be considered. Actually in 2012 the winner Tiger Woods ranked first in greens in regulation. In 2013, champion Matt Kuchar also ranked first in greens in regulation. Last year Matsuyama ranked 22nd in greens in regulation, and four guys ranking in the Top 7 in greens in regulation finished Top 10 in the final standings. The other two areas we are going to look at is Par 4 and Par 5 scoring. All of the Par 5s are reachable in two which will give the long hitters an advantage, but we need to be careful because bombing away with no regard to accuracy does not work here.

One of the most important factors that needs to be analyzed this week at The Memorial Tournament is tournament history. A few of the guys who stand out as having great tournament history include Matt Kuchar, Charl Schwartzel, and Jim Furyk. For a complete tournament history for every player at The Memorial, check out our tournament history page.

Also, be sure to check out our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, as it helps identify some mis-priced players that present great value on the daily sites.

For those of you who have not noticed yet, Draftkings is running a $3 tournament this week with a grand prize of $100,000.  This is the perfect contest for those of you with smaller bankrolls as it gives you a chance at a huge dollar prize that is not normally available.  We want one of our premium members to win this $100k prize so do your research and be strategic about your selections as there will be 90,000+ entrants so it is going to take a couple of real low ownership guys in your lineup doing extremely well in the tournament. Just this week we will mention a few guys that might be real low ownership that have the potential to possibly breakout.  Best of luck and let us know if you are a $100k richer on Sunday night!!!!!!

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, and more, become a premium member.

 

Make Note that Charley Hoffman withdrew from The Memorial on Monday.

 

Top Stud Picks:

 

Dustin Johnson- If not for a horrific quadruple bogey, Johnson could have been hoisting the hardware last week at the Byron Nelson. His ball striking was amazing as always and like we usually say, when he can put just average, he can win any event he plays. A runner-up finish at the Northern Trust, T4 at AT&T Pebble Beach, T6 at Valero, T6, at The Masters, and a win at The WGC Cadilllac are his highlights so far this season. He is the longest of long ball hitters, ranking 1st in driving distance, and ranks 9th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 5th in Par 5 scoring and 9th in Total Strokes Gained. As we mentioned his only downfall has been putting, where he ranks 147th in Strokes Gained Putting. At The Memorial he has had mixed results placing 46th last year, missing the cut in 2013, 19th in 2012, 4th in 2011, 33rd in 2010, and 14th in 2009. We think he is going to continue with his excellent play and score on the par 5s where he will often be there in two shots and deliver a Top 5 finish. (Mostly GPP because of his pricetag)

Hideki Matsuyama- Not normally one of the highest owned players in daily fantasy golf, this week might be different for several reasons. First, he is the defending champ and there is not hiding that. In addition he has been playing really well and really consistent golf with seven straight Top 25s including a T17 at The Players, T5 at The Masters and T4 at The Northern Trust. His last appearance resulted in a T20 at Wells Fargo. Statistically he is doing a lot of things well ranking 34th in driving distance, 11th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in Total eagles, 49th in driving accuracy, 9th in greens in regulation, 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 6th in Total Strokes Gained. The only deficiency in Matsuyama’s game has been putting, where he ranks 131st. It is hard to not roster Matsuyama this week, but wait. Remember the conversation we had about strategically fading some players in GPPs that we believe will be highly owned in daily fantasy golf? This might be an option if you think his ownership will be up over 25%, which we believe it very well might be. (GPP and Cash Games)

Kevin Na- If you can give us a reason not to like Kevin Na this week we would like to hear it. He has been one of the best players on the PGA Tour over the last two months including a T10 at Crowne Plaza, T6 at The Players, T12 at The Masters, T20 at Valero, T6 at Arnold Palmer, T10 Valspar, T9 WGC at Cadillac. Those are probably the best, most consistent results of anybody and in DFS you do not have to pay near the top price. He is not a long ball hitter like some of the guys playing this week, but it has not seemed to matter for Na.  Statistically, Na does not do much special, other than scrambling, as he ranks 123rd in greens in regulation, 21st in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 58th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 18th in Total Strokes Gained. Last year Na finished runner-up as he lost to Matsuyama in a playoff. Before that he missed the cut in 2012, 34th in 2009, and 66th in 2008. A top level guy who often is not considered one by most, looks good this week. (Cash Game and GPP)

You may ask, where in the world is Jordan Spieth you guys at Fantasy Golf Insider love that guy.  Yes we do, but we thought we would take a week of of Mr. Spieth as we think there may be better options for your salary cap in DFS and most likely you have used him up in your season long leagues.  With that being said, we do not dislike him this week and now actually expect him to win the dang tournament since we purposely left him off the recommended list.  Make us pay Jordan.

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Brooks Koepka- In golf a lot of times we hear that golfers have the ability to score. Jordan Spieth is often the topic of conversation because he is not the longest hitter, the most accurate hitter, or the best putter, but he has the ability to score. Well in daily fantasy golf we also have guys who have the ability to score. This is often an overlooked facet to daily fantasy golf on Draftkings, but an extremely important one. On Draftkings, the scoring is such that an eagle is worth 8 points and a birdie is worth 3 points, while a bogey is -.5 and a double bogey is -1. It is clear that you would much rather have a guy who put up a bunch of birdies and bogeys than a guy who put up a bunch of pars, because of the point accumulation. Brooks Koepka is the perfect example of this type of player. Take for example his 50+ point performance at The Players Championship, despite the fact that he missed the cut. Last week he scored 91 points and he finished T16. In comparison, Nick Watney finished T10 and finished with only 90 points scored. Our top three value picks this week, Koepka, Daniel Berger, and Justin Thomas all have this ability to score and score in bunches. With that ability comes some volatility, so they might not be the best cash game plays, but for GPPs they are perfect. Koepka averages 77.2 points per tournament on Draftkings this season. He won the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier in the year and added a T17 at WGC Cadillac and T33 at The Masters. He did suffer for a while with a nagging rib injury and his results were not up to his ability, but he appears to be 100% now. He currently ranks 9th in driving distance, 149th in driving accuracy, 71st in greens in regulation, 35th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 15th in Strokes Gained Putting, 7th in Par 5 scoring, and 12th in Total Strokes Gained. Take Koepka and enjoy the roller coaster and the accumulation of points. (Mostly GPP, but also acceptable in cash games)

Justin Thomas- His last five appearances have produced a T55 last week at The Byron Nelson, T7 at Wells Fargo, T24 at The Players, T12 at Zurich, and T11 at RBC Heritage. He is a long ball hitter as he ranks 19th in driving distance, but can sometimes be a bit inaccurate off the tee as he ranks 157th in driving accuracy. His approach game is solid and ranks 55th in greens in regulation, 32nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and 28th in Total Strokes Gained. Another important factor is that Thomas ranks 2nd in Par 5 scoring and third in Par five birdie or better average, which is key at Muirfield. As with Koepka he has the ability to put up birdie’s and eagles in bunches. We expect Thomas to improve on his T55 finish last week and get back into the Top 15. (GPP and Cash Game)

Daniel Berger- The third leg of our big-time scoring trio, Berger is another explosive player who has the ability to make a bid to win any tournament he enters. Berger has shown this ability early in his rookie season with a runner up finish in the Honda Classic, T10 at Waste Management, and T6 at Zurich. Last week Berger surged Friday-Sunday all the way up to T10. If it were not for a brutal first round 72, he might have had a chance to win the tournament. Berger does have the propensity to miss cuts however as he has missed 7 cuts in 20 events played this season. He has an excellent all-around game ranking 12th in driving distance, 17th in greens in regulation, 25th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, T16 in Par 5 scoring, and 34th in Total Strokes Gained. Berger offers tremendous value when you compare his price to the sportsbook odds this week (+35). Again we do not have any tournament history, as he is a rookie, but lack of experience on courses has not hindered Berger’s ability so far this year. (Mostly GPP)

Kevin Kisner- He only has one appearance at The Memorial, which resulted in a 46th last year, but his current form is some of the best of anybody on tour. Over his past five outings he has a T5 at Crowne Plaza, T38 at Wells Fargo, runner-up at The Players, T28 at Zurich, and runner-up at RBC Heritage. Kisner ranks 122nd in driving distance, 34th in driving accuracy, 83rd in greens in regulation, 47th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 70th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 42nd in Total Strokes Gained. Overall he has a very complete game and has shown a lot of consistency this season. He is not a sexy pick as he does not hit the ball far and does not rank high in scoring, but we want to ride the current hot streak he is on. We would expect his ownership in DFS to be a bit down this week with so many other options.  (Cash Game & GPP)

Shawn Stefani- One of our favorite recommendations this year, Stefani has been playing very good, consistent golf. He has made 14 cuts in 17 events played with an outstanding 9 Top 25s and three Top 10s. In his last two events he took T19 at Crowne Plaza and T9 at Wells Fargo. He is a long hitter ranking 30th in driving distance and also hits a lot of greens ranking 33rd in greens in regulation. Stefani ranks 54th in Strokes Gained-Tee-To-Green, 34th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 33rd in Total Strokes Gained. This will be his first appearance at The Memorial. (Cash Game & GPP)

Pat Perez- A really nice combination of current form, tournament history, and great statistical outlook make Perez a top pick this week. Over the last month and a half, he has been lights out recording a T5 at Crowne Plaza, T20 at Wells Fargo, T17 at The Players, T26 at RBC Heritage, T11 at Shell Houston, and T20 at Valero. His tournament history has produced a 69th last year, 8th in 2013, 25th in 2012, 30th in 2011, 19th in 2010, and 26th in 2008. Statistically he is 31st in driving accuracy, 71st in greens in regulation, 76th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 41st in Strokes Gained Putting, and 49th in Total Strokes Gained. Normally lack of consistency and missing cuts become part of the concern with Perez, but this season he has bucked that trend only missing 3 cuts in 17 events played with 7 Top 25s. This week we think Perez continues his current great run in a tournament he likes and has had success in for many years. (Cash Game and GPP).

Russell Henley- He has now made 14 of 15 cuts, including seven Top 25s, and three Top 10. Last week he had a T22 at the Byron Nelson and before that he had a T24 at The Players, missed cut at RBC Heritage, 4th at Shell, T49 at Arnold Palmer, T56 at WGC Cadillac, and T44 at the Honda Classic. Statistically he looks good as he hits the ball long, but not at the expense of accuracy. Henley ranks 40th in driving distance, 73rd in driving accuracy, 85th in greens in regulation, 84th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 9th in Strokes Gained Putting, an 33rd in Total Strokes Gained. Henley has been an extremely consistent player and one we like this week at The Memorial. (GPP and Cash Games)

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Robert Streb- We think this is going to be the tale of three seasons for Robert Streb. The first was an unbelievable fall season, which saw him take four Top 10s, including a win at The McGladrey. Then came February and Streb looked like he belonged at the Tuesday night drunken golf league and the local municipal course. During that stretch he missed five cuts, and did not have any Top 10s. Now that May has come, we have started to see a return to his fall form as he had a T30 at The Players, T4 at Wells Fargo, and T19 at Crown Plaza. He will still be under most people’s radar’s until he has a couple more good performances. His only appearance in The Memorial resulted in a 28th last year. (GPP & Cash Games)

George Mcneill- Last week we recommended him, but he withdrew from the Byron Nelson, along with what seemed like half the field. In his last performance Mcneill took T5 at Colonial, and before that he had a T28 at Wells Fargo, T17 at The Players, T12 at Zurich, T44 at RBC Heritage, and T20 at Valero. He ranks 78th in driving accuracy, 151st in greens in regulation. This is a situation where current form trumps tournament history as Mcneill has missed the cut here at Muirfield two out of his past three appearances. He has been playing so well lately that we like him to continue that this week. We think he is still going to be overlooked in most formats including DFS, which means lower ownership, and beneficial for us. (Cash Game and GPP)

Tommy Fleetwood- It is extremely hard to predict how success on the European Tour will translate to the PGA Tour. We have seen several players have tremendous success on the European Tour and come over and lay an egg in the states. Fleetwood had a T6 at the BMW Championships and T33 at Espana in his last two appearances, both on the European Tour. He looked very good at The WGC Match Play and very bad at The WGC Cadillac in March. He has not played in The Memorial before.  Might be worth a shot. (GPP only)

Scott Brown- Last week we recommended Brown as a sleeper pick and he delivered exactly what we were expecting, a T41. Starting the end of March, Brown has made eight straight cuts including a T33 last week at Colonial, T13 at Wells Fargo, T30 at The Players, T36 at Zurich, T37 at RBC Heritage, T37 at Shell, and T56 at Valero. Brown has two previous appearances here with a missed cut in 2013 and a 13th last year. He is a great player to round out your DFS roster as he has been an outstanding cutmaker. (Cash Games and GPPs)

 

The guys that we think will have the highest ownership in daily fantasy golf include:
Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, Steve Stricker, and possibly Eric Compton because he is the second cheapest player on the board.  If you missed our discussion about a strategy of fading the highest owned players for GPP purposes in daily fantasy golf, look back at the last two tournament previews under Expert Columns.

A few guys who we believe might be under 5% owned on Draftkings include:

George Coetzee, Hudson Swafford, Andy Sullivan, Brendon De Jonge, Cameron Tringale.

Keep in mind these are long shots and guys we did not put in our recommendations.  However if you are entering the Draftkings contest this week to win the $100k, you have to somehow differentiate from 90,000 other teams, so they might be worth a shot.

 

Best of luck this week to you and let us know how you do!

-Fantasy Golf Insider