Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- The Barclays

OVERVIEW

Ladies & Gentlemen, welcome to the first leg of the playoffs. This week the Tour heads back to Bethpage Black for the first time since 2012 (The Barclays is on a rotation with three additional courses, so course history will include the results from 2012 & the US Open from 2009 when applicable). The course is long, fast and difficult so the final scores our players put up could be more similar to that of the US Open (if you’re trying to project total amount of points needed to win). Bombers tend to fair well here, as well as good Bentgrass putters and ball striking will be a priority as the greens are difficult to hit. Scrambling to save par will be equal to birdies in respect to DraftKings scoring as well so make sure to target the top 25 scramblers in the game this week.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Black Course at Bethpage State Park
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,468 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Farmingdale, NY
• Expected scoring: I doubt we see anything lower than a 65 past Thursday. Bogeys will be made, projecting the winner around -12 would be the lowest I’d go.  
• Past Champions (dating back to 2009):
• 2015: Jason Day -19 over Henrik Stenson [-13]
• 2014: Hunter Mahan -14 over Stuart Apppleby, Cameron Tringale, and Jason Day [-12]
• 2013: Adam Scott -15 over Graham DeLaet, Justin Rose, Tiger Woods, Gary Woodland [-14]
• 2012: Nick Watney -10 over Brandt Snedeker [-7]
• 2011: Dustin Johnson -19 over Matt Kuchar [-17 – 54 holes]
• 2010: Matt Kuchar -12 over Martin Laird in a playoff
• 2009: Lucas Glover -4 over Ricky Barnes, David Duval, and Phil Mickelson [-2] – US OPEN

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – SG:OTT, SG: APP, SG:T2G, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, Birdie or Better %, Scrambling
• Important – SG:Putting, Greens in Regulation

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STARS:

Jason Day (DK $12,400)

• Course History: 24^th   
• Form: 2^nd – 14^th – 22^nd – 3^rd – 8^th – 27^th – WIN
• Stats: 40^th – SG: OTT, 40^th – SG: APP, 15^th – SG: ARG, 1^st – SG:P, 11^th – SG:T2G, 16^th – DD, 190^th – DA, 66^th (66.86%) – GIR, 5^th – Birdie Avg, 3^rd – Scoring Avg, 4^th – Sandies, 29^th – Scrambling, 4^th – BoB Putting Conv %, 4^th – Par Breakers, 75^th – P3 BoB, 11^th – P4 BoB, 6^th – P5 BoB, 4^th – BoB %
• Other – The last time we saw Jason he was dealing with Ellie’s sickness late Tuesday night before the start of the PGA Championship. He hadn’t even stepped foot on the course until Wednesday’s practice round and in true Jason Day form, he was near the lead throughout the entire Championship. Looking only at strong performances this year (with the exception of his back to back wins) it might be safe to say that he should be faded this week, and I’d be ok with that logic as a 22^nd place finish at the Open Championship and a 27^th place finish at Memorial isn’t exactly paying off his salary. If you’re looking for a reason to play him though, all you need to do is look at his statistical fit for the course. I’m fine with playing or fading him this week, leaning towards playing him.

 Henrik Stenson (DK $11,700)

• Course History: 54^th – 9^th  
• Form: 2^nd – 7^th – WIN – 13^th – WIN – WD – 4^th – MC – MC
• Stats: (doesn’t have enough rounds to qualify) 290.4 yards – DD, 69.82% – DA, 72.63% – GIR, 4.22 – Birdie Avg, 69.67 – Scoring Avg, 56.25% – Sandies, 56.93% – Scrambling, 32.71% BoB Conv % (Putting), 17.26% – P3 BoB, 17.62% – P4 BoB, 50.67% – P5 BoB
• Other – Stenson’s been on quite a roll since his withdrawal at the US Open with an average finish of 5^th during his last five events which includes two wins (one major) and a silver medal. Stenson is solid all around and peaks during this time of the year, pretty much every year – his record in the playoffs the last three years are as follows: 2015 – 2^nd – 2^nd – 10^th – 2^nd; 2014 – 38^th – 26^th – 23^rd; 2013 – 43^rd – Win – 33^rd – Win. Now’s not the time to fade the Iceman.

Bubba Watson (DK $9,100)

• Course History: 10^th – 18^th
• Form: 8^th – 25^th – 60^th – 39^th – 14^th – 51^st – 65^th – 43^rd
• Stats: 3^rd – SG: OTT, 47^th – SG: APP, 8^th – SG: T2G, 4^th – DD, 171^st – DA, 20^th – GIR, 32^nd – Birdie Avg, 25^th – Scoring Avg, 161^st – Sandies, 192^nd – Scrambling, 22^nd – Par Breakers, 136^th – P3 BoB, 74^th – P4 BoB, 8^th – P5 BoB, 22^nd – BoB Conv %
• Other – Bubba seemed to have figured things out in Rio and now is our chance to pounce on a bomber who shapes the ball all over the place and has solid course history at Bethpage. I’m hoping people are still off of him because of how he played at Baltusrol (which wasn’t exactly a course that fit his game), but you will hear a lot about “AW Tillinghast specialists” this week and I doubt Bubba’s name is thrown into that conversation. I’d be more reserved to use him in GPP’s only this week because he does have a tendency to flirt with cut lines on Fridays, but I wouldn’t say playing him in cash is a bad idea. There isn’t enough room for me to put all of his ball striking stats in above, but he’s been a top talent in that aspect as well, so keep that in mind if you’re wavering on starting him or not.

ALSO CONSIDER – Dustin Johnson (DK $11,900) – DJ’s missed cut at the PGA was surprising to say the least, but we can use that to our advantage. The PGA was his first missed cut of the year, but in the last two years he’s bounced back with the following results: -17 & T4 at Pebble, -9 & Win at Doral, and in 2014 he only missed one cut finishing Even par & T59 at Sawgrass; he’s definitely in play for all formats this week. Rory McIlroy (DK $11,600) – Another player who missed the cut at the PGA, McIlroy doesn’t exactly have the course history that would scream “auto play”, but he has finished with two Top 25’s including a 10^th place finish here in 2009 and we know he’s a scorer. The issue I have with him is the slow starter he’s shown to be this year, but part of me wonders if that’s his own fault for trying to live up to hype/expectations in the majors which forces him to play more aggressive on Fridays. Either way, he’s in play for GPP’s only this week. Jordan Spieth (DK $11,000) – Spieth’s finishing place at the PGA Championship indicates he played well, but in all actuality it was basically a “never in contention Top 15”. Spieth always garners some ownership, but I think since he’s not considered a bomber he’s in play for both GPP’s & cash games (if you’re the type of player to spend up in cash) this week.  

 

VALUE PLAYS:

 Brooks Koepka (DK $10,100)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 9^th – 4^th – WD – 13^th – 2^nd – 2^nd – 35^th
• Stats: 6^th – SG:OTT, 68^th – SG: APP, 10^th – SG:P, 25^th – SG:T2G, 15^th – DD, 133^rd – DA, 50^th – GIR, 6^th – Birdie Avg, 6^th – Scoring Avg, 39^th – Sandies, 108^th – Scrambling, 8^th – BoB Conv % (putting), 6^th – Par Breakers, 66^th – P3 BoB, 2^nd – P4 BoB, 43^rd – P5 BoB, 6^th – BoB Conv %
• Other – Keeping things short and simple for Brooks here. The ankle is no longer an issue, and the Ryder Cup spot seems to be all but locked up at this point so let’s just play Brooks because he’s a great play from all aspects including the amount of points he can rack up due to his scoring ability. Fire Brooks up in all formats this week. Like Bubba, there isn’t enough room for me to put all of his ball striking stats in above, but he’s been a top talent in that aspect as well, so keep that in mind if you’re wavering on starting him or not.

 Patrick Reed (DK $8,800)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 22^nd – 11^th – 11^th – 13^th – 12^th – 10^th – 52^nd – 39^th – MC – 8^th – 15^th – MC – 28^th  
• Stats: 62^nd – SG: OTT, 91^st – SG:APP, 9^th – SG: ARG, 65^th – SG:P, 33^rd – SG:T2G, 45^th – DD, 114^th – GIR, 42^nd – Birdie Avg, 24^th – Scoring Avg, 26^th – Sandies, 8^th – Scrambling, 33^rd – BoB Conv % (Putting), 38^th – Par Breakers, 79^th – P3 BoB, 85^th – P4 BoB, 30^th – P5 BoB, 38^th – BoB Conv %
• Other – If you’ve been paying attention you know how much I dislike feeding in to the Patrick Reed hype train, so this could be the kiss of death for him this week. During the early part of the year, Reed was a Top 10 machine, and since the Masters he’s become more of a backdoor Top 15 machine who has only met value one time when priced over $9k. The flip side of that is he’s met or exceeded value whenever he’s been priced below that, and we get him at just under that threshold this week. The main reason Reed shows up this week is scrambling. In 2012, runner up Brandt Snedeker said the greens were really tough to hit and he had to scramble his ass off in order to score and that’s what Reed does best.

 Jim Furyk (DK $8,600)

• Tournament History: MC – 33^rd
• Form: 10^th – 5^th – 73^rd – 13^th – 59^th – 42^nd – 21^st – 2^nd – 52^nd – MC – 35^th – MC
• Stats: 163^rd – SG:OTT, 35^th – SG:APP, 28^th – SG:ARG, 62^nd – SG:P, 65^th – SG:T2G, 164^th – DD, 20^th – DA, 47^th – GIR, 169^th – Birdie Avg, 16^th – Scoring Avg, 94^th – Sandies, 6^th – Prox, 148^th – Scrambling, 186^th – BoB Conv % (Putting), 165^th – Par Breakers, 18^th – P3 BoB, 176^th – P4 BoB, 121^st – P5 BoB, 165^th – BoB Conv %
• Other – If you missed it on Sunday, Justin Ray of Golf Channel put out a tweet stating “In his last 95 holes, Furyk has hit 86 greens in regulation” which equals 90.5%. That’s an absurd amount of greens hit especially for Mr. 58. Furyk looked a bit worn down yesterday so maybe he’s starting to feel the fatigue of having to play every week on Tour at 46 years old, but that was the final day of the event – not Thursday. I really like how he sets up considering he’s a known plodder of the course and this course demands patience from start to finish as well as being an “AW Tillinghast Specialist” having gained a total of 33.379 strokes on Tillinghast designed courses since 2005. I also think he makes for a nice GPP play as this course is long, and most people will only be targeting the bombers up top and down in the $6k & below range this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,900) – Matsuyama has the length off the tee and the ball striking ability to navigate around this course. As always with Mats, we need his putter to show up in order for him to meet/exceed value and I think he’s got a 70% chance of doing just that this week after his impressive performance at the Wyndham (a course he’s struggled on and requires a good putter). Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,500) – Charl has been a consistent performer all year and I don’t think that changes this week. DraftKings have finally stopped giving him away this week which means we should see a dip in his ownership in GPP’s and cash games. Billy Horschel (DK $6,700) – Normally I’d reserve this price on Billy Ho for the deep divers section, but there’s plenty to like down there. At $6,700 he could literally miss the cut and still meet value, which is what Jon Rahm did last week (except for the fact that he was priced over $10k). Billy’s ball striking and putting have been really good of late and we all know how much of a form player he is so if you saddled up with him last week, continue to buy your boarding passes for the BillyHo Express from now until the end of the year.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

KJ Choi (DK $5,800)

• Tournament History: 73^rd – 47^th
• Form: 22^nd – 38^th – 20^th – MC – 52^nd – 5^th – 43^rd
• Stats: 179^th – SG: OTT, 61^st – SG:APP, 45^th – SG:ARG, 24^th – SG:P, 118^th – SG:T2G, 192^nd – DD, 23^rd – DA, 94^th – GIR, 102^nd – Birdie Avg, 84^th – Scoring Avg, 11^th – Sandies, 37^th – Prox, 19^th – Scrambling, 103^rd – BoB Conv % (Putting), 106^th – Par Breakers, 104^th – P3 BoB, 97^th – P4 BoB, 133^rd – P5 BoB, 106^th – BoB Conv %
• Other – Choi is not someone I typically look to for these write-ups, but I think he warrants consideration this week due to his form & tournament history (albeit not eye popping history). Choi plays a style of game that results in some mediocre finishing places, but the thing I really like about him is his ability to play conservatively when needed and avoid the big numbers. Choi is a “fairways and greens” kind of player and his ball striking consistently leads to good birdie opportunities or two putt pars. Choi is a player who will be necessary in creating 6/6 rosters this week for all formats.

 Martin Laird (DK $5,700)

• Tournament History: 71^st – MC
• Form: 63^rd – 62^nd – 2^nd – 62^nd – 7^th – 21^st – MC – MC – MC – 65^th
• Stats: 156^th – SG: OTT, 71^st – SG:APP, 67^th – SG:ARG, 64^th – SG:P, 100^th – SG:T2G, 31^st – DD, 173^rd – DA, 49^th – GIR, 52^nd – Birdie Avg, 89^th – Scoring Avg, 89^th – Scrambling, 65^th – BoB Conv % (Putting), 61^st – Par Breakers, 63^rd – P3 BoB, 65^th – P4 BoB, 95^th – P5 BoB, 61^st – BoB Conv %
• Other – Laird hasn’t missed a cut since the FedEx St. Jude in June and even though his good performances have been in fairly weak fields, he’s been able to make the cut and that’s the first part of building a team that gets all six through the cut. Its tough for me to write a lot of good things here because outside of ball striking he’s not really that good (otherwise he’d be priced higher). Call this a gut feeling combined with good recent form and a good price. If Laird isn’t your cup of tea I won’t blame you for going elsewhere. Its just tough to nail down these deep diver plays when you’re faced with guys that have holes in their game.

David Hearn (DK $5,600) 

• Course History: 10^th
• Form: MC – 30^th – MC – 20^th – 12^th – 41^st – 27^th – 17^th – 28^th – MC
• Stats: 150^th – SG: OTT, 30^th – SG:APP, 69^th – SG:ARG, 73^rd – SG:P, 71^st – SG:T2G, 172^nd – DD, 25^th – DA, 45^th – GIR, 102^nd – Birdie Avg, 91^st – Scoring Avg, 45^th – Sandies, 37^th – Scrambling, 125^th – BoB Conv % (Putting), 91^st – Par Breakers, 9^th – P3 BoB, 61^st – P4 BoB, 194^th – P5 BoB, 91^st – BoB Conv %
• Other – Last week was disappointing for Hearn owners, but at least he let it be known early that he would have other plans for the weekend. Fast forward to this week and we’ve got a player who played well here in 2012 and is coming off a missed cut at a very reasonable price (partly due to inconsistent play and partly due to the strength of the field). Hearn’s been shaky lately so I don’t think he should be considered for cash games, but he makes for a very solid GPP play and should see a reduced ownership percentage as opposed to where he normally is in these types of fields.

ALSO CONSIDER – Hudson Swafford (DK $6,200) – The Swafficer is 9^th in driving distance, 2^nd in total driving, 23^rd in greens in regulation and 2^nd in total birdies. The problem with him is he ALWAYS gives back his birdies. Whether it’s on the next hole or the next round, you can be sure that he’ll back up good play with bad. The good news is, he’s a fast starter and will get through the cut line to ensure you’ve got another piece of your puzzle to having 6/6 through. We just need him to not give back all of the birdies he makes Thursday thru Saturday on Sunday. Ricky Barnes (DK $5,800) – Part of this suggestion is because of how he faired in the US Open seven years ago, and the other part of this has to do with his solid play of late. Either way, he seems very comfortable on this course and his results back up that sentiment. Expect some fairly high ownerships if you plan on playing him though. Robert Garrigus (DK $5,700) – Bobby Big Stick continues to impress us late in the year. His 71^st place finish in 2012 is nothing to write home about so the course history buffs won’t be on him this week, but looking at his current form is impeccable and we’re getting him a huge discount compared to where he was priced just a few weeks ago. His length and ball striking ability will be on display this week for sure, hopefully his putter stays hot.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Jimmy Walker (DK $8,200)

• Course History: 38^th
• Form: MC –WIN – 14^th – MC – 16^th – MC – 29^th – 24^th – MC
• Stats: 133^rd – SG: OTT, 14^th – SG:APP, 19^th – SG:ARG, 56^th – SG:P, 28^th– SG:T2G, 25^th– DD, 196^th– DA, 127^th – GIR, 31^st– Birdie Avg, 31^st – Scoring Avg, 98^th – Sandies, 110^th – Scrambling, 15^th – BoB Conv % (Putting), 28^th – Par Breakers, 185^th– P3 BoB, 30^th – P4 BoB, 10^th – P5 BoB, 28^th – BoB Conv %
• Other – So I guess Jimmy did all 9% of us a favor last week missing the cut by five strokes (or at least that’s how I’m taking it). Jimmy’s low ownership last week will only get lower this week especially when you compare his popularity to those around him. Jimmy’s strengths are ball striking & putting and I think last week was a result of playing in the first event since winning your first major; its tough to adapt to newfound fame and the amount of pressure he may have been feeling in that first round of the Wyndham pretty much took him out of the tournament before he finished the day. I think he bounces back nicely this week.

Daniel Berger (DK $6,900)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 5^th – 73^rd – WD – 37^th – WIN – 67^th – 9^th – 17^th
• Stats: 55^th – SG: OTT, 23^rd – SG:APP, 112^th– SG:ARG, 34^th – SG:P, 36^th– SG:T2G, 35^th– DD, 163^rd – DA, 54^th – GIR, 18^th – Birdie Avg, 22^nd – Scoring Avg, 115^th – Sandies, 111^th – Scrambling, 57^th – BoB Conv % (Putting), 25^th – Par Breakers, 50^th – P3 BoB, 40^th – P4 BoB, 49^th – P5 BoB, 25^th – BoB Conv %
• Other – Danny’s full attention should be on the playoffs this week which is good because we should be getting him at some pretty low ownership percentages. Berger is known in the DFS industry as a “Bermuda grass specialist” and seeing how they’re playing on Bentgrass, I’d expect more people to lean on the likes of Tony Finau (because he’s a Bentgrass specialist). Berger’s a bomber so right away you have to like what he brings to the table, and if you don’t watch him swing, you could even say he’s a bit of a ball striker (especially when looking at his statistical breakdown) which also helps his case this week. Ownership + form + enough weeks past his win + price = good GPP play.

ALSO CONSIDER – Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,000) – The unwritten rule in PGA DFS is to only play King Louis in no cut events and majors. This week we’re jumping out ahead of those that will be ready to roll him out in two weeks because of how well his game sets up here. Long off the tee, ball striker, good putter, decent course history (5^th in 2012), 17^th at the Travelers and 22^nd at the PGA means he’s in form. I see no reason not to load up on Oostie this week. Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Grillo is a solid player all around being 32^nd in SG: OTT, 74^th in SG: APP, 64^th in SG: T2G, 63^rd in driving distance, and 19^th in driving accuracy. His issue is the putter, but it’s not that he’s a bad putter like Holmes, Simpson, and Hideki etc. It’s that he putts himself too far from the hole on approaches from 100-150 yards (that’s typically where your scoring irons should be setting you up for 10-12 footers). With the length of this course, I expect Grillo to have more long irons in, which should result in closer birdie opportunities. JB Holmes (DK $6,400) Holmes has a 19^th place finish here in 2012 along with a 27^th place finish at the US Open in 2009 so its nice to see some signs of life here, even if he’s got three missed cuts in a row coming in, but that’s why he’s here in the GPP section. Long off the tee and able to hit the power fade to keep the ball from running through the fairways, the only parts of his game that we need to worry about will be the ball striking & putting, but again that’s why he’s in this section.  If you’re looking for a cheap GPP play, take a look at Kevin Streelman (DK $5,700) or Jonas Blixt (DK $5,500) who both have one made cut here in 2012, but nothing too high. Both also come in with sketchy form so they both should be low owned, but present decent upside in the fact that when they play well, you can find them in the Top 25 with Top 10 upside.   

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

 

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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