Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview – The Barclays
For those of you not glued to shot-tracker late afternoon last Friday, let us tell you about the roller-coaster ride you missed. Several of our recommendations finished up at -2 including Russell Knox who sank a 20 foot birdie putt to hit the number, which at the time was the cut-line. The cut-line eventually then moved to -3 and needed somebody to fall back and there was only one possibility and that person was one of our recommendations, Ollie Schneiderjans and he did by bogeying 18. That was acceptable for us, since he would get through and now so would all the others sitting at -2. But we didn’t account for in descript Robert Castro who was at -2 with hole 18 to play. Wouldn’t you know it, Castro birdied 18 and sent the cutline to -3 and sent Johnson Wagner, Ollie Schneiderjans, Russell Knox, and Billy Horschel all of who we recommended packing. That was painful and just shows how razor thin outcomes can be. If the cutline stays at -2, we could have had another amazing week, instead we just had a decent week. Even with those missed cuts, several of our recommendations had great showings and many of our members built winning rosters and were able to conquer cash games and GPPs in DFS. Our top stud picks Bill Haas, Webb Simpson, and Brooks Koepka all finished T6. Sleeper picks were outstanding with all but Chez Reavie making the cut with Austin Cook taking T43, Chad Campbell T31, Vaughn Taylor T47, and Jim Herman T18. Those that turned our poorly included Brendon Todd who missed the cut and Justin Thomas who collapsed on Sunday and finished T56 after contending for a Top 10 finish before Sunday. Other picks that turned out well were Carl Petterson T6 and Will Wilcox T26. Overall it was a good week, but not a great week. It is a very good example of why we advised to make sure you exercise disciplined bankroll management. We will continue to work hard to bring you the best, most critical information needed to continue to be successful in fantasy golf over the long-term. Keep working hard building your lineups, and you will continue to be profitable.
This week marks the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with The Barclays. The Top 125 players (actually 120) in the FedEx points standings will be competing this week with their sights on cracking the top 100 in FedEx Cup points to gain a spot in the Deutsche Bank Championship next week. Typically, a half-dozen play their way into the second playoff stop from outside the top 100. As normal the cut-line is Top 70 plus ties.
The Barclays rotates courses and this year it lands at Plainfield Country Club in Plainfield, New Jersey. The course measures 7,030 yards long and is a par 70. Original design of the course was by Donald Ross in 1916 but over the past 10 years, has undergone an extensive restoration and renovation program under the direction of architect Gil Hansen, involving the removal of over 1,200 trees, the rediscovery of a number of lost bunkers covered in prior years, expansion of 16 greens and the lengthening of 12 tees to reflect the modern equipment and skills.
The Barclays was held at Plainfield CC in 2011, when Hurricane Irene shortened the tournament to 54 holes, and the tournament ended Saturday, hours before the storm would hit. That year Dustin Johnson was the 54-hole leader and thus ended up being the champion. Scoring should be abundant this week as in 2011 Johnson was -19 and thirty other players were -10 or better and that was through just three rounds.
The two obvious favorites heading into the week are Jordan Spieth and Jason Day as they are the only two players to win at least three times this season. Notably Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia will both be sitting out this week. Plus Louis Oosthuizen has withdrawn. One interesting fact that points to Spieth’s dominance this year, is even with FedExCup points quintupled in the playoffs, Spieth’s commanding lead means only six players have the possibility of bumping him from the top spot at Plainfield.
Analyze our tournament history page to see who consistently plays well in this the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, but pay closer attention to the results of 2011 to see who actually played well at Plainfield Country Club.
We looked closely at the statistics for 2011 and what we found was that driving accuracy and greens in regulation were not indicative of success, which is unlike most tournaments. Driving distance was also not necessarily something that was necessary to succeed at Plainfield in 2011, but there are a couple of long holes so bombers will have an edge. Obviously Dustin Johnson used his length, ranking 2nd in driving distance in 2011 at The Barclays. We are going to look at total driving, strokes gained tee-to-green, strokes gained putting, and Par 4 scoring. We are also going to use birdie or better percentage and scoring average mostly for DFS purposes.
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We are going to be weighting heavily this week current form. Most years those who have been successful at The Barclays had been trending upward in tournaments leading up the event. Last year Hunter Mahan posted a T15 at The WGC Bridgestone and then a T7 at The PGA Championship leading into The Barclays before winning it. In 2013, Adam Scott had momentum building with a T14 at the WGC Bridgestone and T5 at the PGA Championship before winning The Barclays. Be sure to check out our Who’s Hot page to see who has been trending positively over the past several events and has some momentum coming in.
Be sure to check out our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, which has proven to be extremely valuable by identifying players who’s price is lower than the sportsbook odds reflect, thus helping us find value.
One of the things we do here at FGI, is not only offer recommended players but to offer tools to research yourself and also teach important strategies and concepts that will help you become a better fantasy golf player. I wanted to address a topic that we get questions on almost every week. It seems that when a golfer is struggling, everybody wants to try and predict the first tournament that he snaps out of it. For example, we received several questions this past week about Daniel Berger. He had missed five straight cuts coming into the Wyndham. We all know that he is a talented golfer and at some point he is going to snap out of the funk he is in, but we just don’t know when that will be. It seems like people want to make sure they are the first one to pick the exact event that ends his current slump, but the problem is it might be an extended amount of time, and you could lose a lot of money trying to guess when that will be.
I come from a finance background and studied finance in school and I had a professor that used a term relating to the stock market, or an individual stock that I think is analogous to trying to predict exactly when a golfer will break out of a slump. The phrase he used was to “catch a falling knife”. If you try and catch a falling knife it is difficult to catch it in just the right spot in order to not get hurt. But if you wait for it to drop on the floor, you can easily pick it up in the right spot and not get hurt. My professor applied the theory to trying to time the market or an individual stock. As the market is falling everybody wants to try to predict a bottom, but it is nearly impossible to do and you will find yourself guessing when the bottom is and lose a lot of money in the process. An alternate strategy would be to wait until there were confirmed signs of recovery before you were to invest in the market or an investment.
The analogy I am using is between the falling market or investment and a golfer who is currently in a slump. You can try and guess the event he is going to snap out of it a.k.a “catch the falling knife” –or- you can simply wait until he hits bottom and shows signs of breaking out of the slump. We go back to the example of Daniel Berger, where three weeks ago, you could have said “wow he has missed two straight cuts, he is due to break out of this mini slump”, but the problem is you could be doing that for a while. Berger continued his consecutive streak of missed cuts last week at the Wyndham and burned those people yet again who are trying to predict exactly when he will come out of it.
We realize that once a player shows signs of recovery, others will then choose him, but it is far better that way, then it is to lose a lot of money waiting for the exact time. Golf is a game in which the slightest thing whether it be mental or physical can mean the difference between competing to win tournaments and missing cuts. Thus it is impossible to predict why a player is in a prolonged slump and when he will snap out of it. You will be better served to wait until there are clear signs of recovery before getting back on board. Think Adam Scott as well.
There is also a flip side to this concept and that is trying to predict when a player is going to fail for the first time when they are playing well. We have heard people say they are avoiding Brooks Koepka in fear that he is due to play poorly, since he has played so well for a prolonged period of time. Again, you could be waiting a while. Koepka has not missed a cut since May 10th at The Players and actually has not placed worse than Top 20 since June 7th at Memorial. Will he ever miss a cut or struggle in a tournament again? Of course. And if he struggles in two or three tournaments in a row, then we re-evalute and make a decision. But we are not going to try and guess when the first time he falters will be, because we will cost ourselves the opportunity to make a lot of money with him. Koepka continued his torrid play this week in taking T6 at the Wyndham and continued to be an anchor on most of our cash games and a ton of our GPPs. To summarize, do not outsmart yourself. Use all of the tools we provide to you and do not try and guess outcomes, it simply is impossible to do.
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Top Stud Picks:
Jordan Spieth- We are not going to spend much time on the top two guys, because frankly they are obvious. What we will say is that their ownership is going to be high in DFS, even with their high price tags. In his only two appearances at The Barclays, Spieth has a 22nd and 19th. We all know his track record this year so we do not need to repeat it. For cash games in DFS his price-tag looks to be too high and will deplete your salary cap too much. If he comes out victorious however, which there is a very good possibility he could, he will be a must have in GPPs. However since he will be owned by such a high percentage of the field, a fade of him might be a prudent strategy in case he does not deliver a Top 10. This is obviously a big “if”, but if you it is a large field GPP, you need to take some chances and there are not too many ways to separate yourself from 30% of the field. (Mostly GPP)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 2nd
Strokes Gained Putting- 5th
Greens in Regulation- 44th
Total Driving- 45th
Par 4 Scoring- 1st
Birdie or Better Average- 2nd
Scoring Average- 1st
Jason Day- Both Day and Spieth have separated themselves from the pack this year and are the only two who have won three events. As with Spieth, Day’s ownership will be high. There is nothing not to like about Day other than his ownership as he is obviously red hot coming into The Barclays, his statistics are amazing, and he has an excellent and proven track record at The Barclays including a 2nd last year, 25th in 2013, 24th in 2012, 13th in 2011 (Plainfield), and 5th in 2010. Personally in large GPPs we are going to be underweight on both Spieth and Day, just because of the extremely high ownership. If they both happen to finish outside the Top 10, it will put us at such a huge advantage it is worth taking the risk. That strategy could easily backfire and they could finish 1-2 again, but you need to take chances in the large fields. On Draftkings he is unexplainably $1,100 cheaper than Spieth. This will only further push up his ownership percentage. (Mostly GPP)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 11th
Strokes Gained Putting- 9th
Greens in Regulation- 19th
Total Driving- 66th
Par 4 Scoring- 2nd
Birdie or Better Average- 1st
Scoring Average- 4th
Justin Rose- We kind of like the fact that Rose has been right on the doorstep without winning tournaments this past month. He will be extra hungry and his ownership will not be nearly as high as if he pulled out one of those close calls. He will definitely be lesser owned than Spieth and Day and probably a few other top tier players. He provides a nice pivot from the Top 2 for that reason. Since the first week in June, Rose has a 2nd at Memorial, T27 at the U.S Open, T6 at The Open, T4 Quicken Loans, T3 WGC Bridgestone, and 4th PGA Championship. Rose has had success in The Barclays in the past with a 30th last year, 2nd in 2013, 46th in 2012, 6th in 2011 (Plainfield), and 15th in 2010. Statistically he possess everything we are looking for this week including the ability to score. We will see if the hunger to win from all of his close calls will push him to victory, because it seems certain he will be in contention. (Mostly GPP)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 6th
Strokes Gained Putting- 82th
Greens in Regulation- 8th
Total Driving- 4th
Par 4 Scoring- 46th
Birdie or Better Average- 4th
Scoring Average – 7th
Matt Kuchar- Just about everything is pointing favoratively to Kuchar having success this week. His current form has been trending upward since mid-July with a T7 at RBC Canadian, T25 at WGC Bridgestone, and T7 at the PGA Championship. Kuchar consistently plays well in this event with a 5th last year, 19th in 2013, 38th in 2012, runner-up in 2011 (at Plainfield), and won it in 2010. Being below average in driving distance will not hurt him on such a short course and he is one of the best in the game at scoring. He has the experience, temperament, and game to be able to win this week at Plainfield and if he performs as well on the course as he looks on paper, we will be very happy come Sunday night. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 27th
Strokes Gained Putting- 27th
Greens in Regulation- 100th
Total Driving- 93rd
Par 4 Scoring- 10th
Birdie or Better Average- 27th
Scoring Average – 16th
Brooks Koepka- We discussed earlier that we are targeting players that have great current form and built momentum coming into The Barclays and Koepka fits that to a tee. Look, Koepka is not a secret anymore, we realize that, but such an amazing player and DFS value cannot be ignored. As we discussed earlier, Koepka is one of the few players that we are willing to recommend despite the fact we know his ownership will be high going in. When you factor in his value in DFS because of his scoring, we are going to stick with Koepka for a while. He has not finished outside the Top 20 since the first week in June and has a T6 last week at Wyndham, T5 at the PGA Championship, and T6 at WGC Bridgestone in his last three events coming in. This will be his first appearance at The Barclays and we look for him to make a splash in his debut. (GPP and Cash Games).
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 29th
Strokes Gained Putting- 3rd
Greens in Regulation- 21st
Total Driving- 45th
Par 4 Scoring- 6th
Birdie or Better Average- 8th
Scoring Average- 7th
Top Value Picks:
Russell Henley- Overall a tremendous year from Henley with 18 cuts made in 21 events played with 11 Top 25s and four Top 10s. The only think Henley is missing this year is a win, which is surprising with how many times he has been in the hunt late in tournaments this season. Henley is another guy coming into The Barclays on a roll with a 5th at Greenbrier, T20 at The Open, T17 at WGC Bridgestone, and T12 at the PGA Championship. Not much success at The Barclays in his two appearances with a 61st last year and missed cut in 2013. This however is by far Henley’s best season so we are going to weigh current form the heaviest for him. Henley possesses the thing that is necessary to win in a top field like this week, which is dominate putting. In DFS, Henley makes a solid cash game play, but a wonderful GPP play since he will not be very heavily owned, but if his putter gets hot is very capable of winning. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 89th
Strokes Gained Putting- 6th
Greens in Regulation- 75th
Total Driving- 7th
Par 4 Scoring- 46th
Birdie or Better Average- 31st
Scoring Average – 32nd
Robert Streb- Not a surprise that Streb finds his way into our recommendations, as he has most every week this year, but is there a reason that we should leave him out? In his last nine events played, Streb has eight Top 20s. Much of those finishes have come in elite fields including a T10 at PGA Championship, 5th at WGC Bridgeston, T18 at The Open (in his first appearance playing overseas), T2 at Greenbrier, T18 at the Memorial, and T4 at Wells Fargo. Streb’s only appearance at The Barclays resulted in a missed cut last year. Much like Henley however, this is a different season for Streb and he is a much different player. One look at Streb’s statistics explains why he has had such a solid season, which includes 14 Top 25s and nine Top 10s. He is rock solid in every area. Outside of an unexplainable stretch between March-April, Streb has been one of the best players on the PGA Tour this season. A win in the playoffs would be the cherry on top of a great season for one of the guys who has made us a lot of money this season. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 26th
Strokes Gained Putting- 22nd
Greens in Regulation- 9th
Total Driving- 49th
Par 4 Scoring- 10th
Birdie or Better Average- 25th
Scoring Average- 18th
David Lingmerth- One of the players on a lot of winning rosters for the PGA Championship, including the lineup of the teams that split the million dollar prize, Lingmerth was owned on only 6% of rosters. We expect that number to be higher this week, but probably not too much higher. His breakout season began when he won the Memorial the first week in June. Since then he has a T64 at Travelers, T6 at Greenbrier, T74 at The Open, 3rd at Quicken Loans, T6 at WGC Bridgestone, and T12 at The PGA Championship. He only has one appearance at The Barclays two years ago when he missed the cut. Lingmerth does not stand out in any statistical categories, but if you segment his year, they have been a lot better the latter half of the year. He has momentum coming into the FedEx Cup playoffs and we expect him to outproduce his price in DFS and still be on the lower side of ownership. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 53rd
Strokes Gained Putting- 54th
Greens in Regulation- 117th
Total Driving- 31st
Par 4 Scoring- 46th
Birdie or Better Average- 50th
Scoring Average- 50th
Danny Lee- Our only hesitation on Lee coming into the PGA Championship was the fact that it was at Whistling Straits, a long, links style course, and Lee had missed the cut at both links style courses he played in the past month (Chambers Bay and St Andrews). Our hesitation proved somewhat correct as he made the cut, but only finished T43. Well this week is not a long, links style course and more similar to those courses that Lee has been carving up over the past two months, so we like him. A T6 at WGC Bridgestone, T4 at Quicken Loans, T3 at John Deere, and win at Greenbrier mark his last four appearances outside of links style courses, not too shabby. Lee took 38th last year at The Barclays. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 76th
Strokes Gained Putting- 26th
Greens in Regulation- 105th
Total Driving- 141st
Par 4 Scoring- 46th
Birdie or Better Average- 20th
Scoring Average- 39th
Tony Finau- It almost feels as though you are walking down the street and see a crisp hundred dollar bill laying right in your path. You think, this is too good to be true so you look around to see if you are on some hidden camera show. You think, “why is this hundred dollar bill sitting right in-front of my eyes?” “Is this a set-up?’ This is how we fell about Tony Finau being priced at $7,300 this week on Draftkings and can’t decide if this is a screaming deal or a hidden camera show. Finau has made 15 Top 25s and five Top 10s in 28 events played this season. Over the past three months he has been red hot with a T10 at Byron Nelson, T8 at Memorial, and T10 at the PGA Championship. Statistically he sets up nicely for Plainfield and looks like a tremendous value play for cash games as he has only missed one cut in the past three months. We are going to pick up the hundred dollar bill, stick it in our pocket, and not look back, hidden camera be damned. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 29th
Strokes Gained Putting- 127th
Greens in Regulation- 48th
Total Driving- 96th
Par 4 Scoring- 21st
Birdie or Better Average- 12th
Scoring Average- 25th
Justin Thomas- Another guy who has been playing well lately despite another Sunday meltdown last week at Wyndham. Despite being a rookie he has not had any problem competing in big events and tough fields. A T24 at The Players, T7 at Wells Fargo, T5 at John Deere, T4 at Quicken Loans, and T18 at the PGA Championship, and T56 last week at the Wyndham. It appears that Thomas is peaking at the right time and he could contend this week at Barclays. Thomas is one of those players like Koepka that rack up points in DFS, which is overlooked by most. (GPPs and Cash Games.
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 21st
Strokes Gained Putting- 99th
Greens in Regulation- 35th
Total Driving- 56th
Par 4 Scoring- 46th
Birdie or Better Average- 7th
Scoring Average- 20th
Top Sleeper Picks:
Shawn Stefani- If you are want to roster Spieth or Day in DFS you are going to look toward the bottom of the pricing structure and there are not many players who you can confidently say will make the cut. Stefani is the one in the bottom quartile of players this week that stands out as the most likely to make the cut, but also to provide some upside potential. Stefani has a 78% made cut percentage this season and has ten Top 25s and three Top 10s, yet is only $6,200 on Draftkings. He most recently missed the cut at The PGA Championship, but again that was on a different style course and much more difficult. Before that he had a T52 at Quicken Loans, T35 at John Deere, and T13 at Greenbrier. His one appearance at The Barclays was last year and he took 30th. Statistically he is solid in every area with his only deficiency being driving accuracy, which as we said before is not that important here. He is a great play to make the cut and allow you to save some cap space in DFS. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 42nd
Strokes Gained Putting- 77th
Greens in Regulation- 33rd
Total Driving- 25th
Par 4 Scoring- 30th
Birdie or Better Average- 20th
Scoring Average- 33rd
Jason Bohn- In his last nine events Bohn has five Top 15s including a T37 at The PGA Championship, T4 at Quicken Loans, T12 at John Deere, and T13 at Greenbrier in his last four. Bohn has one Top 10 in his seven appearances at The Barclays but has missed the cut in four of his last five appearances with a 61st last year. It is all about this season for Bohn as he has found something in his game that he did not have in the past. The best part about Bohn is he is a birdie machine and ranks amongst the best on The PGA Tour in birdie average. He has been playing really well lately and feel like we can count on a Top 30 from him this week. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 42nd
Strokes Gained Putting- 38th
Greens in Regulation- 24th
Total Driving- 80th
Par 4 Scoring- 3rd
Birdie or Better Average- 16th
Scoring Average- 21st
Chad Campbell- We thought Campbell looked like an excellent play last week so we recommended him, and were surprised that he was owned by less than 10% in every contest. Well thankfully he made us look good by finishing T31. Campbell has been playing really impressive golf lately with eight straight made cuts, which include five Top 25s. Coming into the Wyndham he had T11s at the RBC Canadian and Quicken Loans. Campbell hasn’t qualified for The Barclays in a few years, but he does have seven appearances including a 52nd in 2011. Very few of his statistics for the season make you sit up and take notice, but lately he has been playing well and at his price in DFS looks to be a great value. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 46th
Strokes Gained Putting- 124th
Greens in Regulation- 33rd
Total Driving- 87th
Par 4 Scoring- 115th
Birdie or Better Average- 135th
Scoring Average- 55th
Morgan Hoffman- Hometown boy coming back to where he grew up and won two New Jersey state championships. Although it is a good story and might provide a little extra incentive, it is not the reason we are recommending him. Hoffman, although inconsistent offers us a bunch of upside, which is what we want for large GPPs and putting him in a lineup with Spieth or Day. He has two Top 10s this year (T9 at RBC Heritage and 4th at Arnold Palmer). Last week he placed T26 at the Wyndham and T75 at the PGA Championship the week before. Late last season he caught fire starting at the Barclays, taking T9, then followed it up with a T35 at Deutsche Bank and 3rd at BMW. We like his result at RBC Heritage this year because Harbour Town is the same exact distance as Plainfield. Young player, potential for a run, makes for a great sleeper pick. (GPP only due to inconsistency)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 128th
Strokes Gained Putting- 33rd
Greens in Regulation- 192nd
Total Driving- 146th
Par 4 Scoring- 121st
Birdie or Better Average- 75th
Scoring Average- 100th
Off the Wall (Are You Fu*#ing Kidding Me) Pick of the week:
Ryan Palmer- Before you spit your beverage all over your computer screen at the sight of Palmer’s name in our recommendations, hear me out. This is strictly a GPP play with a very small % of your GPP bankroll. Palmer’s father was killed in a car accident a week ago if you did not know. For this reason combined with his terrible current form, nobody on earth will be choosing Palmer. So an ultimate contrarian play plus a play on how emotions and grief can take over and produce unexplainably amazing results makes for our inaugural Off the Wall(Are You Fu*#ing Kidding Me Pick of the Week. For those of you who remember back in 2013, Palmer’s lifelong friend was killed in a car accident while Palmer was competing in The Players Championship (Palmer actually found out via phone call after he posted a 67 in the opening round). He was able to channel his emotions, and finish T5 that week despite obviously dealing with unbelievable grief. This is not the only time athletes have shown the amazing ability to perform up to, if not vastly exceed their ability when dealing with crisis. In March, Morgan Hoffman learned of his grandmothers’s death before he took the course for his opening round at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He proceeded to shoot a tournament leading 6 under 66 that day and finished 4th place, his best finish of the season. A couple of other times where tragedy has produced amazing results that I can recall include when Brett Favre took the field a day after his father passed away and threw for 399 yards and 4 touchdowns in a Herculean effort. Torrey Smith the wide receiver for the Baltimore Ravens had a career night on Sunday night football against the Patriots a day after his brother was killed in an accident. I am sure there are other incidents like this, but you get the point. Palmer’s form is certainly not good with a missed cut at The PGA Championship, T70 WGC-Bridgestone, T41 RBC Canadian, and T30 at The Open. He has had some success at The Barclays in the past with a 74th last year, 66th in 2013, 24th in 2012, and 43rd in 2011. This pick however is strictly based upon the chance that Palmer could put up an unexplainable effort this week and nobody but us will have picked him. (One or two Gpps only)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 33rd
Strokes Gained Putting- 67th
Greens in Regulation- 96th
Total Driving- 75th
Par 4 Scoring- 82nd
Birdie or Better Average- 67th
Scoring Average- 20th
Best of luck to all of the FGI family this week, let’s keep it rolling!
-Fantasy Golf Insider
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