Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Sony Open

The Tour stays off the mainland for one more week as they travel to the island of Oahu for the Sony Open. The course is a bit tougher than Kapalua so scores will naturally be a bit higher this week. Par this week is 70 (versus 72 last week) so even though you may see scores of 66 or 67, the total scores will be higher. Justin Thomas holds the Par 70 course record at 61 in 2015 (shot on Friday and followed by back to back rounds of even par on the weekend), and comes in hot after his win last week. The course is setup better for guys who hit it long off the tee as well as those who possess a strong iron game, so we’ll be leaning heavily on those who gain strokes from tee to green (SG:T2G). If you’re trying to decide between a player who’s playing his first event in over two months or someone who played last week, I’d give the nod to the guy who’s taken some swings.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• Waialae Country Club
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,044 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
o Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
o Expected scoring: Historically there hasn’t been an early/late draw advantage at this event, so I wouldn’t worry too much about leaning heavy on either wave of tee times. Obviously the AM wave each morning should see less wind, but all players will benefit from this before the cut. I’d expect scoring to remain low again with the winner being around -20.
o Past Champions:
• 2016: Fabian Gomez -20 over Brandt Snedeker in a playoff
• 2015: Jimmy Walker -23 over Scott Piercy [-14]
• 2014: Jimmy Walker -17 over Chris Kirk [-16]
• 2013: Russell Henley -24 over Tim Clark [-21]
• 2012: Johnson Wagner -13 over Harrison Frazer, Charles Howell III, Sean O’ Hair, Carl Pettersson [-11]
• 2011: Mark Wilson -16 over Tim Clark & Steve Marino [-14]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG:T2G, SG:APP, SG:P, Birdie Or Better
o Important – Scrambling, SG:OTT, Bogey Avoidance

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STARS:

Jordan Spieth (DK $11,500)
• Course History: MC
• Form: 3rd – 6th – Win
• Stats: 32nd – SG:OTT, 87th – SG:APP, 2nd – SG:P, 26th – SG:T2G, 51st – DD, 145th – GIR, 3rd – Birdie Avg, 9th – Scrambling, 4th – BoB%
• Other – Spieth missed the cut here in his only appearance in 2014 and started out pretty slow at Kapalua, but he went beast mode on the weekend and actually finished with more birdies than eventual winner and best friend Justin Thomas. He’ll be a popular play in both cash and GPP’s this week, but I’m not sure he’s worth it in cash games with all of the value we have available.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,000)
• Course History: MC – MC – MC – MC
• Form: 2nd – Win – Win – Win – 2nd – Win – 5th
• Stats: 17th – SG:OTT, 3rd – SG:APP, 6th – SG:T2G, 103rd – SG:P, 65th – DD, 35th – GIR, 4th – Birdie Avg, 46th – Scrambling, 6th – BoB%
• Other – Mats continued to roll the rock last week finishing with .289 Strokes gained: Putting. As long as this number isn’t negative, he’ll finish in the Top 5 every week. The changes he made towards the end of last year are clearly paying dividends and I think he rights the ship on Oahu making his first cut in his fifth appearance. He’d be considered a HuLo (high upside, low ownership) cash game play this week as the course history buffs will be off of him.

Paul Casey (DK $9,500)
• Course History: 30th – MC
• Form: No form in last two months
• Stats: 21st – SG:OTT, 11th – SG:APP, 75th – SG:P, 7th – SG:T2G, 2nd – GIR, 45th – Birdie Avg, 36th – Scrambling, 53rd – BoB%
• Other – Casey is the first guy on the list that comes off a long layoff. The problem is, he hits all of the criteria for guys we’d want to target this week, so with that said he’s probably only in play for GPP’s this week. Casey made 17/22 cuts last year including seven Top 10’s and looked like the promising young stud most of the golf world thought he’d be before suffering multiple injuries due to his love for power lifting. I think that continues again this year (barring any health setbacks), but let’s give him a week to knock the rust off his sticks.

ALSO CONSIDER – Justin Thomas (DK $10,500) has been the only player to stop Hideki Matsuyama from winning every tournament he’s entered in the last four months. Does it continue again this week? My guess is no, but as long as he continues to dominate the field in strokes gained:T2G, he’ll be in the discussion as he gained the most strokes on the field last week in that category and was 2nd in SG:OTT. He’ll see a bump in ownership this week as a result of the win, but should be considered for GPP’s as his course history includes polar opposite results (MC, 6th). Justin Rose (DK $9,300) was dealing with a back issue in the Bahamas during the Hero World Challenge a few weeks back and is not someone I’d consider this week either. Back issues are tricky and can flare up at any time (Si Woo Kim may have been dealing with his continued back issues last week and as a result played like absolute garbage). Let’s let others take the bait here on Rose.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Zach Johnson (DK $8,500)
• Tournament History: 9th – 64th – 8th – MC – 54th – MC – 12th – Win – 32nd – 47th
• Form: 12th – MC
• Stats: 147th – SG:OTT, 79th – SG:APP, 25th – SG:P, 80th – SG:T2G, 122nd – GIR, 52nd – Birdie Avg, 24th – Scrambling, 64th – BoB%
• Other – Cash game ZJ comes in at a fair price this week thanks to a heavy top field and should not be ignored. Last year, he was very low owned in this event due to how poorly he played at Kapaula after switching to PXG. I really like the way his game sets up for this course as he hits a ton of fairways and should be able to stay out of trouble. Zach is also a strong putter on slow greens (where he’s gained 2.098 more strokes versus faster greens since 2013).

Charles Howell III (DK $7,800)
• Tournament History: 13th – 26th – 8th – 3rd – 2nd – MC – 5th – 4th – MC – 2nd – 53rd – 3rd
• Form: 13th – 7th – 15th
• Stats: 72nd – SG:OTT, 99th – SG:APP, 72nd – SG:P, 47th – SG:T2G, 38th – GIR, 21st – Birdie Avg, 44th – Scrambling, 19th – BoB%
• Other – Howell is a course horse with seven Top 10’s over his career in Honolulu and will be a chalky play this week. Howell also played during the fall swing, so he’s got “some” form, albeit two months removed from present day. Regardless, he possesses length off the tee, solid ball striking skills and is considered a strong par 70 player (he’s gained 1.456 strokes more on Par 70 courses vs other since 2013). He’ll be the highest owned player in both cash & GPP’s this week, but is too good to fade, in my opinion.

ALSO CONSIDER – Pat Perez (DK $8,000) gets a $900 price bump after a great week on Maui and we’re going back to the well with him in all formats. Perez is a form player and he’s in form at the moment. Continue to ride this hot streak until his misses a cut. Another player who played well last week and was a late addition to my teams was William McGirt (DK $7,900). McGirt isn’t great in the scrambling department, but he doesn’t need to be considering he hits a ton of greens with his long irons – he gained almost a full stroke on approach shots last week and should continue to do that this week on a course that rewards good 2nd shots. Branden Grace (DK $7,500) was the chalk value that greatly disappointed last week and when looking at his statistical breakdown, it’s easy to see why he was such a disappointment. Grace lost at least one stroke to the field in every category except off the tee on the easiest course on tour and it’s not going to be any easier this week. With the increase in price and the horrid play, Grace is a hard fade for me this week in all formats. Cash game elitist Hudson Swafford (DK $7,000) makes his first appearance since The RSM Classic in November. Why do I call him a cash game elitist? He’s made his last 17 cuts and provides you with huge Thursday and Friday tilt when you see all the green screen shots because of his uncanny ability to drop a ton of birdies. His only issue is keeping it together on the weekend, but as long as he’s playing four days at this price you’re a happy camper. His last three finishes here were 9th – MC – 8th.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

James Hahn (DK $6,800)
• Course History: 28th – 26th – 46th – 67th
• Form: 22nd – 15th – 9th
• Stats: 112th – SG:OTT, 125th – SG:APP, 109th – SG:T2G, 147th – SG:P, 88th – DD, 119th – GIR, 142nd – Birdie Avg, 150th – Scrambling, 145th – BoB%
• Other – Last week Hahn basically delivered what was expected of him. We got the low ownership and a less than ideal finish from an up and coming player who’s a fairly streaky player. The good news is his price didn’t move at all from last week and he showed signs of life in his game by not finishing DFL. Last year at this event he finished 28th while gaining 1.266 strokes on approach shots, a statistic we’ll be targeting again this week. As long as he doesn’t lose strokes on the greens he’ll be playing four days and should finish inside the Top 25.

Daniel Summerhays (DK $6,700)
• Course History: 13th – 17th – 46th – MC – 46th – 34th
• Form: No form in last 2 months
• Stats: 126th – SG:OTT, 153rd – SG:APP, 6th – SG:P, 148th – SG:T2G, 156th – GIR, 50th – Birdie Avg, 121st – Scrambling, 44th – BoB%
• Other – Summerhays and I have a love/hate relationship. When I expect him to play well, he usually misses the cut on Thursdays and when I don’t expect him to do well, he ends up finishing in the Top 15 so beware as I like him this week. Summerhays’ specialty is putting which makes him more of a GPP play in the sense that putting can be a high variance aspect of the game, however, he’s extremely consistent in his putting and his approach game is where he lives and dies. If he can lose less than half a stroke to the field this week, he’ll provide a ton of value at this price and allow you to jam in some studs.

ALSO CONSIDER – Cody Gribble ($6,800) turned heads on Thursday with his aggressive play and birdies from off the green. He should see a bump in ownership this week due to recency bias so make sure you determine whether you want to be underweight or overweight on a kid that hasn’t really proved anything other than being another buddy of Jordan Spieth. He’s got game, but last week was a cake walk since there wasn’t a cut. There’s a lot more on the line this week as the paycheck isn’t guaranteed. Wesley Bryan ($6,700) is a name you should expect to see in this article every week unless his price rises above $8k. The strength in his game revolves around his ungodly ability to drain putts from anywhere on the greens and he usually has good looks at birdies due to his extreme accuracy with his irons. He primarily hits 3 wood off the tee, so you’ll see his SG: OTT numbers will be lower than what you’d expect, but he does this in order to keep the ball in the fairway and reduce the variance with those iron shots. Rod Pampling (DK $6,300) is an Aussie who played really well last week considering he was invited for winning an event that was headlined by Justin Timberlake. He played well last week primarily in part of the fact that the course is very easy for Tour professionals, but also because he didn’t give up any full strokes in any facet of his game and we should expect the same this week. At this price, I’ll take my shot on an old guy whose only weakness seems to be a balky putter in a field where you need some of these cheapies in order to get a guy like Spieth or Matsuyama.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Jimmy Walker ($9,900): T9 last week. Played extremely well for 36 holes last week, but couldn’t keep it together and in the end got out played by Matsuyama & Thomas. Should gain more strokes off the tee this week with the emphasis being on hitting fairways. Form player, who’s returned to his “early season” form he’s been known for. Finished 13th last year.
Brandt Snedeker ($9,700): T17 last week. Looked like he found something in his game Saturday and made a huge jump up the leaderboard. Sneds is also known as an early season guy who takes advantage of these warm climate events. Putter is his main issue, but putts better on slow greens. Lost in a playoff last year to Fabian Gomez.
Scott Piercy (DK $8,900): Hasn’t played since OHL in November where he took 4th. Course horse with 5/8 cuts made, including a 2nd in 2015. Long-ish off the tee and good with long irons, putter holds him back from time to time but is a strong Par 70 player. Needs to finish Top 10 in order to pay off this hefty price tag, but has the upside to warrant a shot. Finished 13th here last year.
Russell Knox (DK $8,100): T17 last week. Lost more strokes than gained, but Kapalua doesn’t seem to suit his game. This week with tighter fairways and more emphasis on ball striking should result in better play. Needs to keep gaining strokes on the greens and the birdies will follow. Missed the cut last year and was fairly chalky coming off a 13th place finish the year before.
Zac Blair (DK $7,600): Horrible form at the RSM and OHL (57th & 42nd), but has finished in the Top 10 in both appearances here. Short in stature and off the tee, which puts a lot of pressure on the rest of his game. Blair was in the zone last year during this event and seems unconscious on Sunday firing at almost every pin. Don’t let him see your cash lineups as this seems like a trap spot for him, but he does seem comfortable on this course considering his past results. Finished 3rd last year.
Chez Reavie ($7,500): Hasn’t played since OHL (like Piercy) also took 4th. Short course specialist, Par 70 specialist who gains strokes tee to green, and on approach shots. His putting will be the deciding factor this week in whether or not he plays the weekend. Finished 42nd last year.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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