Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Shriners Open

OVERVIEW

The Shriners has been a good place for “ball strikers” over the years so it’ll be important to target these types of players specifically this week as well as UNLV alumni as they should be very familiar with the course (it was not their home course in college, but they played it often). You’ll probably hear on Twitter this week that this is an accuracy course, but I’d still prefer to target bombers that hit 50%+ fairways as a season long statistic (which means, basically all bombers are still in play). One item of note this week, there was a clerical error on behalf of the PGA Tour and instead of 132 players, there are 144 so more players will be cut from the field than usual after Friday’s rounds end.

Roberto Castro has withdrawn from the tournament, do not play him

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• TPC Summerlin
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,255 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
o Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
o Expected scoring: Previous winners have gone fairly low over the past five years and there’s really nothing to make me think the course will play any tougher this week. I assume we’ll see the winner better than 20 under again this week.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2011):
• 2016: Smylie Kaufman -16 over Cameron Tringale, Patton Kizzire, Jason Bohn, Kevin Na, Brett Stegmaier, Alex Cejka [-15]
• 2015: Ben Martin -20 over Kevin Streelman [-18]
• 2014: Webb Simpson -24 over Jason Bohn & Ryo Ishikawa [-18]
• 2013: Ryan Moore -24 over Brendon de Jonge [-23]
• 2012: Kevin Na -23 over Nick Watney [-21]
• 2011: Jonathan Byrd -21 over Martin Laird, Cameron Percy in a playoff

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG:Putting, Birdie Or Better, SG:T2G, Scrambling
o Important – SG:APP, SG:OTT

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STARS:

Ryan Moore (DK $11,000)
• Course History: 43rd – MC – 9th – WIN – MC – 7th – 24th – 54th – 85th – 16th
• Form: 23rd – 17th
• Stats: 123rd – SG:OTT, 38th – SG:APP, 29th – SG:ARG, 32nd – SG:P, 46th – SG:T2G, 150th – DD, 18th – DA, 87th – GIR, 35th – Birdie Avg, 61st – Scrambling, 42nd – BOB%
• Other – Starting at the top, Moore has a mixed bag of finishes here, including a win in 2012 which makes me think maybe a fade or “being underweight” on his ownership is the play here. The problem with that is he’s been playing much more consistently since his win at the Deere and coming back to a familiar course might be what he needs to notch his 2nd win in 2016.

Brooks Koepka (DK $10,700)
• Course History: MC – 4th – MC
• Form: 40th
• Stats: 13th – SG:OTT, 89th – SG:APP, 113th – SG:ARG, 20th – SG:P, 37th – SG:T2G, 19th – DD, 59th – GIR, 6th – Birdie Avg, 5th – BOB%
• Other – Brooks was here the last three years and only has a paycheck from 2014 to prove that’s true. Last season may not have been the big breakout season we were hoping for, but he did play really well for the majority of it and if he wasn’t hampered by injury it could’ve been even better. Brooks’ driver will be the key to success this week and if it doesn’t show up he might be trunk slamming on Friday again. His ownership should be fairly high this week, so from a game theory perspective fading him might be the play here.

Chris Kirk (DK $10,300)
• Course History: 36th – 36th – MC
• Form: 2nd – 8th
• Stats: 80th – SG:OTT, 42nd – SG:APP, 40th – SG:ARG, 98th – SG:P, 35th – SG:T2G, 136th – DD, 68th – DA, 132nd – GIR, 123rd – Birdie Avg, 16th – Scrambling, 125th – BOB%
• Other – Kirk has taken full advantage of the fall season’s weaker field events and this week should be more of the same. Kirk’s ball striking should play to his advantage this week and I think he contends. His last two appearances were a few years ago so I wouldn’t put too much stock into the subpar finishes. As far as trendspotting goes, Kirk seems to line up as a guy who might peak this week and get himself an invite to Hawaii in January. I like him for both cash and GPP’s this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Scott Piercy (DK $9,700) is from the area, but didn’t go to school at UNLV. I’m not sure how often he plays TPC Summerlin, but he’s shown some signs of comfort here over the past few years – two missed cuts in ten appearances, five Top 25’s. Jimmy Walker (DK $9,600) is another player with ties to Sin City and has shown in the past that he can keep his mind out of the slot machines and nightlife enough to focus on what pays his bills. Last year’s 50th place finish might have been an indication that we all missed that things were off for Jimmy (which would’ve explained why he didn’t fare well in his usual West Coast & Texas Swings). I’m willing to look past last week’s debacle in Malaysia and give him another shot this week. Kevin Na (DK $9,500) is also a player who has shown comfort in Las Vegas with a runner up finish last year, a 22nd place finish in 2012 and a win in 2011. He also has yet to cash in on the “Nappy Factor” after his most recent child was born. That could be something that doesn’t apply to him though or it could be delayed just like the time it takes for him to hit the ball once he’s at address.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

William McGirt (DK $8,700)
• Tournament History: 8th – 33rd – 28th – MC – 16th
• Form: (Hasn’t teed it up yet in the fall series)
• Stats: 36th – SG:OTT, 63rd – SG:APP, 29th – SG:P, 31st – SG:T2G, 118th – DD, 31st – DA, 51st – GIR, 72nd – Birdie Avg, 48th – Scrambling, 79th – BOB%
• Other – Dirt McGirt has the course history working in his favor this week as he’s only missed one cut in five appearances. McGirt’s strengths are primarily from tee to green where he gains the majority of his strokes and ranked 41st on Tour last season. My guess is that the general public will be off of him due to his lack of driving distance off the tee, which ranked 118th, so he could be a solid cash game play with GPP upside as well.

Kevin Streelman (DK $8,000)
• Tournament History: 16th – 2nd – 22nd – 16th – 14th – 43rd
• Form: 18th – MC
• Stats: 54th – SG:OTT, 70th – SG:APP, 105th – SG:ARG, 167th – SG:P, 63rd – SG:T2G, 104th – DD, 40th – DA, 17th – GIR, 82nd – Birdie Avg, 174th – Scrambling, 85th – BOB%
• Other – Streel’s is one for two this year in cuts made, but if anyone can call themselves a horse for this course, it’s him. His worst finish came in his debut here and at this price it’d be silly to avoid him coming off his finish last week. The price could be better considering who he is as a career golfer, but I think that’s picking nits and he should be one of the first value plays you plug into your cash game teams this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Lucas Glover (DK $8,100), Russell Henley (DK $8,000) Harris English (DK $7,200) all warrant consideration this week for different reasons. Glover is a tee to green guy that struggles with the putter, but the greens should be fast enough this week to mitigate his putting woes enough for him to pay off his price tag. That being said, I think I’d only be comfortable rostering him in GPP’s as a tertiary play. Henley’s an early season play in most years and backed up that line of thinking again last week, finishing 14th. That’s a very good sign going forward as we might be able to continue to get him at a good price. English is a perfect three-for-three here and we know what we’re getting with him. He’ll give us hope Thursday and Friday to make us think we’ve got a sweat going for the weekend, once he’s notified he’s playing the weekend he’ll throw in the towel to a Top 50 finish. He’s really only in play as a cash game value this week as I think his upside is capped with his finishing position.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Fabian Gomez (DK $7,100)
• Tournament History: 16th – MC
• Form: 26th
• Stats: 104th – SG:OTT, 157th – SG:APP, 88th – SG:ARG, 49th – SG:P, 137th – SG:T2G, 105th – DD, 73rd – DA, 141st – GIR, 110th – Birdie Avg, 132nd – Scrambling, 110th – BOB%
• Other – Gomez is the guy we play on short tracks where accuracy is key, but I think he’s underestimated as a weekly play on courses where he can hit driver and keep the ball in the fairway – his accuracy off the tee leads to better opportunities into the green and he’s actually a consistently good putter. Gomez’s success has also come in the form of Par 71 courses where he’s gained 1.051 strokes compared to his expected strokes gained total of .46. Gomez makes for a HuLo candidate this week (high upside, low ownership) for GPP’s this week. I’m not ready to push the chips in on him for cash though.

Chad Campbell (DK $7,000)
• Course History: 8th – MC – 36th – 54th – 23rd – 28th – 2nd – 3rd – 74th – 16th – 67th
• Form: 45th – 57th
• Stats: 71st – SG:OTT, 48th – SG:APP, 14th – SG:ARG, 148th – SG:P, 25th – SG:T2G, 116th – DD, 39th – DA, 33rd – GIR, 101st – Birdie Avg, 21st – Scrambling, 116th – BOB%
• Other – Campbell is a UNLV alum who also shows signs of comfort in most of his appearances at Summerlin (one missed cut). I’m sure he’ll be fairly high owned in cash games this week, so you might want to plug him in as your 2nd or 3rd value play and move on. Outside of last year’s run where he was tied for the 36 hole lead, I don’t see him having much upside for GPPs, so in GPP’s I’d look to pivot to Robert Garrigus or someone below Campbell.

David Hearn (DK $6,700)
• Tournament History: 25th – 7th – MC – 30th – 5th
• Form: 66th – MC
• Stats: 151st – SG:OTT, 18th – SG:APP, 70th – SG:ARG, 48th – SG:P, 67th – SG:T2G, 158th – DD, 40th – Scrambling, 96th – BOB%
• Other – Hearn’s had some pretty good success in Vegas over his career and deserves a look at this price. Another ball striker/putting combo play here, Hearn should be able to take advantage of his good proximity numbers on approach shots into these easy greens. Being a comfortable player on Bentgrass is also a plus for the Canadian this week as he should be used to the speeds & how the ball rolls. His form indicates he may have had some rust build up after not playing since the BMW Championship, but I expect a nice bounce back this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Spencer Levin ($6,400) is a perfect six for six at Summerlin with three top 10’s. I can’t bring myself to playing him in cash this week even with the solid history here, so I’ll be playing him at about 20% in GPPs, mainly because he has the rare quality of being able to single handedly destroy good DFS lineups and I didn’t forget what he did to my Safeway teams. Jason Bohn (DK $6,200) is a perfect seven-for-seven at Summerlin and knocked off the rust last week to the tune of a 70th place finish (yuck). That being said, I think he makes for a fine cash play this week, but don’t expect him to finish inside the Top 10 for the fourth time in his last five appearances. He should easily pay off his price tag though.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Jon Rahm (DK $9,800)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 15th
• Stats: Didn’t qualify for stat tracking in 2016
• Other – Rahm is way underpriced from a betting perspective (33/1) and from a DFS perspective. He’ll be chalky this week especially with the value plays in the $6k range, but just like at the Safeway, you’re going to want to have him on your rosters as a birdie making extraordinaire. “DJ-Light” might be the highest owned play in GPP’s that I’ve recommended in this section, but if he goes off at this price you’re going to wish you didn’t fade the chalk here.

Nick Watney (DK $7,500)
• Course History: 11th – 16th – 48th – 10th – 2nd – 6th – MC – 36th – 59th – MC – 6th
• Form: 35th
• Stats: Didn’t qualify for stat tracking in 2016
• Other – That’s a lot of course history for one player. Watney was a much better player in the eleven previous appearances at Summerlin, but finishing 35th in his first appearance since returning from injury is a positive sign. Taking the last two weeks off to rest up is also a good sign from our perspective as he may go under the radar this week; I’m not sure yet. Either way, I’m not willing to trust him in cash games even when 100% healthy so that defaults him to the GPP section where I think he’s able to exceed his value at this price.

ALSO CONSIDER – Tony Finau (DK $8,600) is in a dead zone for pricing unless you make a conscious effort to get him in. He excels on Bentgrass greens and bombs it off the tee so he should definitely be on your radar as a tournament option. He’s also performed pretty well during the fall season (finishing 33rd & 26th), but some may think the price is too high for those results. Patrick Rodgers (DK $7,500) and Luke List (DK $7,400) are both bombers of the ball that struggle with the flat stick. I think if choosing between the two, I’d lean with Rodgers as a lower ownership play since List’s 2nd place finish last week will result in a bump in what is normally a fairly high ownership for punt plays (even if his price is higher than usual this week). Jamie Lovemark ($7,400) would be my favorite pivot off of both players and sports a 13th place finish here last year.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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