Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Shriners Hospitals Open
Wow what a week it was to welcome us back to Fantasy Golf. I heard from a ton of you who had huge weeks, and if you followed the recommendation of this column last week you cleaned up. Overall the recommendations had 15 of 18 make it through the cut with many of them turning out outstanding performances including: Emiliano Grillo with the win, Kevin Na runner-up, Justin Rose T6, Will Wilcox T10, sleeper Chez Reavie T16, Daniel Berger T17, Hideki Matsuyama T17, sleeper Lucas Glover T17, Brendon Steele T17 (although a Sunday choke prevented a big-time finish), and Daniel Summerhays T32. Only a few unexpected flops prevented us from a sweep, we are looking at you Russell Knox you choke artist. Every sleeper but one made the cut, which is incredibly hard to do. I was personally fueled by the picks and was able to win a King of The Hill seat next week on Draftkings. For those of you who are not familiar, the KOH is a heads up contest for $5,000 with the winner advancing each week until he loses. This week I will be heads up against Samenole and hoping for a heads up win. I was also able to put several teams in contention in the $3 Drive the Green Contest with the best team finishing 63rd. Most of you know how difficult that contest is and a lot of the time one guy can make thousands of spots difference in the standings.
In addition to our recommendations tearing it up last week our Top 10 Sleepers to Watch for the PGA DFS Fall Season, finished incredibly. Eight of the 10 guys in the article played in the Frys.com and seven of them made the cut. Outstanding performances by Chez Reavie (T17), Patrick Rodgers (T6), Lucas Glover (T17), and of course our top player, Emiliano Grillo with the championship. This is one of the reasons fall golf is so profitable for FGI members, because you knew about these guys and none of them were widely owned. We will continue to utilize these guys throughout the fall.
For the second event of the Fall Season, we travel to Las Vegas Nevada and TPC Summerlin, for the Shriners Hospitals Open. TPC Summerlin is a Par 71 and measures 7,255 yards. It is located in the rugged Nevada desert and stretches through canyons and the average elevation of the course is approximately 2,700 feet above sea level.
The field this week will contain six of the Top 35 players in the world as well the same contingent of new Tour players as last week.
Scoring is the name of the game this week in Las Vegas as the winning score of the Shriners the last four years has been -20, -24,-24, and -23.
Statistically it is all about scoring and accumulating birdies as opposed to avoiding bogeys. Last year, Champion, Ben Martin led everybody with 26 birdies made. Kevin Streelman and Russell Knox finished 2nd and 3rd in the standings and tied with the second most birdies of anybody with 24. Jimmy Walker finished T4 and finished 3rd in birdies made with 23. At the same time Martin, Streelman, and Walker all finished with 8 bogeys, which was about middle of the pack and far from the lowest. This finding fits perfectly with our DFS strategy of focusing on birdie accumulation as opposed to bogey avoidance. We will be placing a lot of importance on birdie or better percentage this week and also Par 4 scoring. Greens in Regulation remains a critical statistic this week as last year six of the Top 8 finishers were ranked in the Top 10 in that category. Driving accuracy over the last several years has been a statistic that has very little importance this week. Actually last year only one player in the Top 9 in the final standings finished in the top 10 players in fairways hit, with Martin finishing 18th and Streelman 43rd in fairways hit. Similarly, driving distance has not been a vital statistic for those players who have had success (the elevation helps everybody). The only caveat to that is eagles are very makeable on TPC Summerlin and obviously driving distance can help in that area. Last year driving distance was not a common theme for eagle makers, but that being said it does not hurt. Four players had three eagles last year and another four had two, so this also goes along with our theme of scorers this week. Unlike most weeks where eagles are not plentiful enough to factor in, this week, that is not the case.
Unlike last week, the home for The Shriners Open has been TPC Summerlin for a while, so we can look at tournament history and we can go back to placing importance on it. Check out our Tournament History Page for all results from the last eight years at The Shriners Open.
Las Vegas natives and UNLV graduates have had great results in the past at this tournament. Native Kevin Na won it in 2011 and UNLV grad Ryan Moore won in 2012. Plus there are a couple more listed in our recommendations below. We do not know for sure why they play well here perennially, maybe it is the heat or dryness that these guys are used to, but it is surely not a coincidence.
This week we have made available one of our new tools that will help you gain a tremendous edge in large field DFS Tournaments. It is an ownership percentage prediction tool and will reflect what we feel will be the ownership percentage of every player in a large field GPP. It will also allow you to include your prediction and combine it with ours. We have studied the composition of winning GPP lineups and have found that ownership of players comprising lineups is absolutely critical. We will have more information on those winning GPP lineups in our in-depth research study that we are working on, which will be available on the site in December. Use this tool and it will help guide you in building your GPP lineups.
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There are several big name players this week in the field including Fowler, Walker, Bradley, and Koepka and those guys command a lot of attention and salary. For the best bang for your buck stick with a slightly more balanced approach this week. The only time that will bite you is if obviously the big guys dominate, but this tournament isn’t typically one of those. It is usually wide open and although the top priced guys have a decent shot of playing well, I believe that you can snag a bunch of middle of the pack guys to get you good finishes here.
Top Stud Picks:
Rickie Fowler- In his two appearances at the Shriners, Fowler has faired fine with a 22nd and a 7th place finish. He is clearly the most accomplished player in the field and thus he gains the highest price in DFS this week. Fowler finished out last season red hot with a win at Deutsche Bank, T4 at BMW, and T12 at the Tour Championship. That being said, it will be tough for Fowler to pay off his price and thus he looks like a decent fade this week. He is always a popular pick overall, which makes him that much easier to fade. Know that it will burn if he wins this week, but if he finishes any worse than 3rd, you will have done alright. (GPP only)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 26th
Greens in Regulation- 106th
Birdie or Better %- 13th
Par 4 Scoring- 74th
Strokes Gained Putting- 35th
Webb Simpson- It is very difficult to ignore a guy who has three straight Top 5s in his last three appearances at The Shriners. He isn’t playing extremely well and is coming off a missed cut. This might actually benefit us however in GPPs as people will be soured by the MC and avoid him. Webb tends to play well consistently in certain tournaments year after year (think Quail Hollow) no matter how bad his form is. His price isn’t too bad at $9,400. His current form is not good enough for cash game purposes, so I would pass there, but take a shot in GPPs (GPP only)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 7th
Greens in Regulation- 53rd
Birdie or Better %- 68th
Par 4 Scoring- 114th
Strokes Gained Putting- 174th
Emiliano Grillo- We nailed Grillo both in our Top 10 Sleeper to Watch this Fall Season and as one of our top value picks last week. He tore up the Web.com Playoffs with a 2nd, 9th, and a win in the championship event. His performance at Frys.com was very indicative of his talent and what we expected to see. His price was steep last week, which prevented us from shoving all-in on him, but we still got in and reaped the reward. We mentioned last week that he would be under most people’s radars and he was, being owned by between 10-13% in GPPs across the board. This week will be a bit different as his talent has been exposed. Still we like his prospects the rest of the fall into next year. (GPP and Cash Games)
Did not qualify for stats for the 2014-2015 PGA Tour.
Top Value Picks:
Patrick Rodgers- Another player in the Top 10 Sleepers of the Fall Season, because he is a freaking stud and everybody is going to see that eventually this year. He started out the fall season great with a T6 last week at the Frys.com Open. He played here last year and missed the cut, but this is a new season. A young, hungry player who is long off the tee, can score, and is among the leaders in Par 4 scoring and birdie or better %. (GPPS and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 91st
Greens in Regulation- 77th
Birdie or Better %- 29th
Par 4 Scoring- 26th
Strokes Gained Putting-107th
Will Wilcox- Wilcox ended last season strong and he picked up where he left off in the Frys.com taking T10. Wilcox is statistically one of the best players on tour, ranking in the Top 20 in greens in regulation, Strokes Gained Tee-to-green, Total Strokes Gained, scoring average, and total driving. He has not played in the Shriners before, but there is no reason to think he will not continue his great play. That being said, his price on Draftkings is ridiculously cheap at $8,200, so we expect his ownership to approach 30%. Ownership is not that important in cash games so please utilize the value. This might be a good opportunity to implement the strategic fade strategy that we preached last year and that paid off time after time. If Wilcox happens to flop, which he is not immune from, you will put yourself in front of nearly a third of the field in GPPs. (Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 20th
Greens in Regulation- 4th
Birdie or Better %- 17th
Par 4 Scoring- 3rd
Strokes Gained Putting- 32th
Jason Bohn- A really good tournament history here, Bohn in the last three years has an 18th, 2nd, and 8th. He is the type of scorer that we like this week and ranks near the top of the standings in Par 4 scoring, and birdie or better %. He has the ability to jump up in the standings as he posted six Top 10s last season. He played extremely well last week at the Frys.com taking T3, so he is carrying in some momentum to this week. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 40th
Greens in Regulation- 28th
Birdie or Better %- 20th
Par 4 Scoring- 6th
Strokes Gained Putting- 46th
Chez Reavie- Last week I talked about how Reavie tends to run hot during stretches. He finished the Web.com Playoffs on one of those hot stretches with a T10, 1st, T20, and 2nd. He continued that very solid play last week at the Frys.com with a T17. He played exceptional on Sunday by posting a 6-under 66. Reavie has never had much success at the Shriners Open missing the cut in his last four appearances. This gives us a bit of hesitation to load up on him, but he is currently so locked in that we are going to lean on the side of current form here. His price last week on Draftkings was $7,800 and this week it is $7,300, which makes no sense considering his nice showing last week. We felt like he was going to have a strong fall and we will continue to pick him until we see something different, especially if his price drops. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 73rd
Greens in Regulation- 15th
Birdie or Better %- 101st
Par 4 Scoring- 74th
Strokes Gained Putting- 152nd
Scott Piercy- I already talked about how Las Vegas guys have a good track record in this tournament, well Piercy is a perfect example. In his last four appearances, Piercy has three Top 10s. Plus before that he had a 28th and a 14th. Piercy ended last season playing quite well as he had a win at the Barbasol Championship, and a 3rd at the BMW Championship. He played all the way through the Tour Championship. He has a lot of upside as he had 9 Top 25s and five Top 10s last season. However with his upside comes some downside as well as he missed nine cuts last season. This makes him a perfect GPP candidate in DFS. Plus his price is much higher than we anticipated, which will keep his ownership down even if people do like his prospects. (Mostly GPPs)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 60th
Greens in Regulation- 80th
Birdie or Better %- 44th
Par 4 Scoring- 95th
Strokes Gained Putting- 103rd
Charley Hoffman- You really never know for sure what you are going to get from Charley Hoffman week in and week out. Last season he made 7 Top 10s and missed 7 cuts. He finished out the year with a 3rd at Deutsche Bank, T53 at BMW (out of 70), and T22 at the Tour Championship (out of 30). His history at The Shriners is much the same type of volatility with a MC last year, 4th in 2013, MC in 2012, 40th in 2011, MC in 2010, 6th in 2009, and 15th in 2008. Crazy isn’t it? Clearly he is only good for GPPs, but he might be a difference maker because he is a scorer and generally does well in high scoring tournaments. He is from Las Vegas and went to UNLV, so he is comfortable with his surroundings. His price of $9,300 is not outrageous for the upside he presents so he might be worth a shot. (GPP Only)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 71st
Greens in Regulation- 97th
Birdie or Better %- 30th
Par 4 Scoring- 26th
Strokes Gained Putting- 89th
Nick Watney- Normally you will not see Nick Watney’s name in these recommendations, but we like him this week. He is from Nevada and he has a great track record in this tournament. In his 10 appearances at the Shriners, Watney has four Top 10s, including a 16th last year, 48th in 2013, 10th in 2012, 2nd in 2011, and 6th in 2010. He had a lousy +5 Sunday last week at Frys.com, which knocked him way back to T64. He is a bit of a headcase, so if you need him to come up clutch on Sunday, do not hold your breath. He missed 10 cuts last year, so he is strictly a GPP play. He ranks well in Par 4 scoring and strokes gained tee-to-green. Don’t get used to seeing his name here, but this week grab him. (GPP only).
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 32nd
Greens in Regulation- 66th
Birdie or Better %- 52nd
Par 4 Scoring- 26th
Strokes Gained Putting- 156th
Top Sleeper Picks:
Patton Kizzire- He was the regular season Web.com points leader and had a really terrific year last year. He finished up the year with 12 Top 10s in 23 events played, with two wins and two runner-ups on the Web.com Tour, plus a T5 in the Championship event. He missed last week’s Frys.com event due to the fact that he was getting married (no idea why in the world he would schedule it for then, but that is a different issue). He is a big-time upside guy who will be under most people’s radars this week, making it an excellent time to pounce on him in GPPs. (Mostly GPPs)
No PGA Stats for 2014-2015
Chris Stroud- Not necessarily a sleeper play because of price in DFS, but rather ownership. Last week Stroud was owned by 1% in the $3 Drive the Green and 3% in the $300 3-Wood. We would expect that ownership to increase a bit this week with his T10 performance last week, but probably not by a tremendous amount. He finished last season brutally with four straight missed cuts, but since then had a runner-up at Alfred Dunhill and that T10 last week at the Frys.com. Stroud is a guy that runs hot for periods and ice cold for others. Last season he had a stretch between late June and mid July where he was Top 40 each event including a T10 at Travelers and T5 at John Deere. He might be on one of those hot streaks right now. Stroud hasn’t played here in a few years, but between 2008-2010 he had a 24th, 19th, and 22nd place finish. Personally I would never trust him in cash games in DFS, but he looks like a low ownership play in GPPs. (GPP only)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 89th
Greens in Regulation- 112th
Birdie or Better %- 57th
Par 4 Scoring- 95th
Strokes Gained Putting- 140th
Lucas Glover- We are going back to the well with Glover this week as he made us look good last week finishing T17 as one of our sleeper picks. He was red hot coming into last week with T22, T25, T9, and T12 finishes in the Web.com playoffs and he kept it going nicely with a -10. He is another outstanding tee-to-green guy, who struggles terribly with the putter. However in his run in the Web.com Playoffs he putted better and last week he actually gained strokes on the field in putting, which is unusual for him. The only bad part of Glover this week is his lack of success at this tournament with missed cuts the last two years. Still he is definitely worth a GPP pick this week. (GPP only)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 11th
Greens in Regulation- 10th
Birdie or Better %- 99th
Par 4 Scoring- 147th
Strokes Gained Putting- 184th
Spencer Levin- His T49 last week wasn’t real impressive, but when you consider his $6,100 price-tag on Draftkings, and the 63 points he scored it wasn’t a bad performance. This week he comes to a place where he has three Top 10 performances in his last four appearances (10th last year). Again this week he is at a very reasonable price of $7,400 on Draftkings. The last two seasons he has made the cut in every fall event he has played. (GPP and Cash Games)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 93rd
Greens in Regulation- 45th
Birdie or Better %- 161st
Par 4 Scoring- 26th
Strokes Gained Putting- 124th
Luke Guthrie- Several things are intriguing about Guthrie this week. First, he is coming off a T10 last week at the Frys.com and T10 at the Web.com Tour Championship. Next he took 5th here two years ago. Finally he is only $6,900 on Draftkings and he willnot be owned by many. This sounds like a legit GPP play. He is a young guy with high upside and coming in on a roll, I am willing to take a shot with him. (GPP only)
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 127th
Greens in Regulation- 153rd
Birdie or Better %- 87th
Par 4 Scoring- 95th
Strokes Gained Putting- 79th
As always, best of luck to all of you this week and let us know how you are doing so we can sweat it with you.
-Fantasy Golf Insider
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