Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- SBS Tournament of Champions

First off I’d like to welcome back all returning subscribers and give an official welcome to any new ones. If you’re new here, this is a preview section where I give my first look analysis on the field, suggesting cash & GPP plays and at times a suggestion on where I plan to be with my own market share of certain players. If you’re new, I strongly recommend checking out all of the tools we have to offer on the site including – the PGA & EURO models, lineup builders, The First Tee (a look back at the previous week by Jason), PGADFS Targets (a more contrarian look at roster construction by David) as well as the Daily Spin (written by Zach) and The Hardcore Core (written by Jeff). Fantasy Golf Insider brings you the most comprehensive tools and articles to make you a better PGA DFS player so it’s important to make sure you’re utilizing the subscription to its fullest potential.

We begin 2017 with the Tournament of Champions in beautiful Maui, Hawaii where the Bermuda rough is cut as short as possible and the birdies will be droppin’! This week there’s no cut, so I’d temper back your excitement in throwing a ton of money into cash games and focus primarily on building GPP lineups. Sure, you can still play cash games, but the edge isn’t there this week unless you’re hitting the nuts on all six of your players so if you do play cash I’d recommend scaling back this week. One last item of note; in the past three years players finishing in the Top 5 at the Hero World Challenge all placed in the Top 10 (if they participated) in the Tournament of Champions. Those players include – 2013: Zach Johnson (1st Hero, 1st ToC), Matt Kuchar (3rd Hero, T6 ToC), Webb Simpson (5th Hero, T3 ToC). 2014 – Patrick Reed (3rd Hero, 1st ToC), Jason Day (5th Hero, T3 ToC). 2015 – Bubba Watson (1st Hero, T10 ToC), Patrick Reed (2nd Hero, 2nd ToC), Rickie Fowler (3rd Hero, 5th ToC), Jordan Spieth (4th Hero, 1st ToC). That may be noise, but there may be something to that as well as both locations are resort destinations where the course is setup for these guys to go low. Also, unless otherwise noted, the stats listed are for 2016 season as most players have minimal rounds measured for 2017. If I list the 2017 stats it’s because they didn’t qualify for 2016.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• Kapalua Resort – Plantation Course
• Par: 73
• Yardage: 7,452 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
o Location: Maui, Hawaii
o Expected scoring: This will absolutely be a birdie fest, I’m not sure if we’ll see -30 again, but you should expect the winner to be at -25. The winds are the biggest concern on this course, but they’re clearly not a major issue based on previous year’s scoring and if there’s rain in the forecast it shouldn’t be around for long. Rains in Hawaii don’t last more than a couple hours and it’s not usually course soaking rains unless there’s a hurricane.
o Past Champions:
• 2016: Jordan Spieth -30 over Patrick Reed [-22]
• 2015: Patrick Reed -21 in a playoff over Jimmy Walker
• 2014: Zach Johnson -19 over Jordan Spieth [-18]
• 2013: Dustin Johnson -16 over Steve Stricker [-12]
• 2012: Steve Stricker -23 over Martin Laird [-20]
• 2011: Jonathan Byrd -24 in a playoff over Robert Garrigus

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG:OTT, SG:APP, SG:T2G, SG:P, Birdie Or Better
o Important – Scrambling (not a huge statistic as scrambling is very easy to do on this course)

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STARS:

Jordan Spieth (DK $11,500)
• Course History: Win – 2nd
• Form: 6th – Win
• Stats: 32nd – SG:OTT, 87th – SG:APP, 2nd – SG:P, 26th – SG:T2G, 51st – DD, 145th – GIR, 3rd – Birdie Avg, 9th – Scrambling, 4th – BoB%
• Other – I’ve tried multiple times to make a lineup I like including Spieth and Matsuyama and it’s very difficult to feel confident with the pieces around them together. If you don’t mind playing three to four donkeys that luck-boxed their way into wins this year, go ahead but I think the way to play this week will be to make several teams where you only take one guy at the top of pricing and Spieth is one that will be in a lot of my lineups this week.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200)
• Course History: 10th – 6th – Win – 9th – 16th – 11th
• Form: 3rd – 35th
• Stats: 2nd – SG:OTT, 26th – SG:APP, 3rd – SG:T2G, 36th – SG:P, 2nd – DD, 43rd – GIR, 1st – Birdie Avg, 70th – Scrambling, 1st – BoB%
• Other – DJ will no doubt be popular this week as he came in 3rd at the Hero and is coming off the best year of his career. I think we’re in for a regression year from him this year, but this week isn’t one I’ll be looking to fade him in any format as his length off the tee has increased with the upgrade in equipment (he recently added the 2017 version of the M2 family to his arsenal). I’d look to target 35%+ ownership on DJ this week.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,000)
• Course History: 3rd
• Form: Win – Win – Win – 2nd – Win – 5th
• Stats: 17th – SG:OTT, 3rd – SG:APP, 6th – SG:T2G, 103rd – SG:P, 65th – DD, 35th – GIR, 4th – Birdie Avg, 46th – Scrambling, 6th – BoB%
• Other – Mats is the odds on favorite this week, but is the 3rd highest priced player in the DK pool. This is obviously because of popularity, but don’t think his ownership will dip because of DK’s lack of awareness. Can he four peat? Probably not, but he’s been clicking on all cylinders and a no cut event is not the time to fade the hottest golfer on the Tour. If you’re playing 3 max contests, I’d build a core of 3-4 players and finish each of them off with Spieth-DJ-Matsuyama.

ALSO CONSIDER – Patrick Reed ($9,500) has had a lot of success the last two years in Maui and I don’t think that changes this week. He finished 10th at the Hero and 43rd the following week on the Euro Tour which was fairly predictable considering the short week and travel. Reed’s at a price point where you can put him in as the 2nd play in your lineups this week and not have to punt too far when rounding out your teams and makes for a solid part of your core as well. Bubba Watson ($9,200) is another player who has had success in Maui, but not just the last couple years and that’s primarily to how far the ball rolls down the hills on Kapalua and Bubba knows exactly how to play these holes. He comes in with back to back 10th place finishes which were preceded by a 4th place finish in 2013 and he also finished 6th at the Hero, which was a very quiet 6th place finish. He deserves to be part of your core as well this week. Rory McIlroy ($9,900) is listed as in the field, but there’s ZERO chance he plays so don’t waste time making lineups with him as he’s scheduled to start his season in South Africa.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Justin Thomas (DK $8,900)
• Tournament History: 21st
• Form: 4th
• Stats: 97th – SG:OTT, 20th – SG:APP, 131st – SG:P, 53rd – SG:T2G, 24th – DD, 94th – GIR, 35th – Birdie Avg, 151st – Scrambling, 31st – BoB%
• Other – JT will be a very popular play at this price primarily because he’s a favorite of the sharps, he’s long off the tee and scores in bunches. I’d also assume roster construction will begin with a Spieth-JT combo (I could also see people starting their rosters with Spieth-JT-Berger) as everyone is very familiar with their lifelong friendship and people like to pile on with that narrative. If you’re playing GPP’s to win, the play here might be to fade JT this week and grab Bubba who’s slightly higher or Brandt Snedeker who’s right below him.

Daniel Berger (DK $8,500)
• Tournament History: No Course History
• Form: 2nd
• Stats: 42nd – SG:OTT, 23rd – SG:APP, 60th – SG:P, 32nd – SG:T2G, 34th – DD, 46th – GIR, 17th – Birdie Avg, 127th – Scrambling, 24th – BoB%
• Other – Berger is another bomber who plays very well on Bermuda grass (as he’s a Florida native and played the majority of his rounds on Bermuda grass since he started the game). The only concern with Berger is the girlfriend narrative. Tori Slater is a stunner and if she’s traveling with him (I haven’t seen her post any selfies from the hotel yet this week) I might consider fading him as he’s shown to come up short in events where she travels with him. She must require his attention to be focused more somewhere else other than the golf course or something (that may be a bit sarcastic and far-fetched, but I’m going with it).

ALSO CONSIDER – Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,300) is listed in the field, but not on betting slips as his season is also expected to start in South Africa (like Rory). If he announces that he’s in Maui, lock him in as he’s been playing some really solid golf on the Euro Tour the last month. Russell Knox ($8,200) is making his 2nd appearance in Maui this year and I hope he sees similar success as others in their 2nd trip back to the island (Jimmy Walker finished 21st in his first appearance and backed it up with a 2nd place finish the following year. Charley Hoffman has finished in the 20’s in two of his three appearances, with the best finish coming two years ago, although his appearances have had some time between starts). Knox’s ball striking is going to be on display this week and his length off the tee shouldn’t be an issue as there are plenty of hills to carom his ball down the fairway. Jimmy Walker ($7,800) used to be known as Mr. Hawaii prior to last year’s struggle during the early season capturing several wins in Hawaii, California and of course his native Texas. Walker turned a corner last year, winning the PGA Championship after some swing changes made by Butch Harmon. I think Jimmy returns back to his old Hawaiian ways this week and we see a very nice finish on familiar grounds primarily due to his presence on Bermuda with the flat-stick. Sergio Garcia ($7,600) is probably not playing either, but if he does I’d be sure to throw him in. He’s a great Bermuda putter and the wide fairways and short rough would play to his advantage this week. If I hear that he’s in, I’ll be sure to retweet/tweet regarding the updates I see. Jason Dufner ($7,400) played really well during the early part of last year, then steadily stayed in tournaments making his last 14 cuts. He also has a new girlfriend in the picture so things are looking up for Duffman. Ball striking is his strength and he’s been a better Bermuda putter than other grass types (as he’s from the dirty south) so I like his chances this week as well. Si Woo Kim (DK $7,300) you didn’t think I’d get through an entire write-up without mentioning my boy Si Woo, did you? Ball striker/Hole out extraordinaire (lead the Tour in hole outs last year with 22), master of putting and Par 5 scoring (17th on Tour last year) and since he’s Asian he won’t have the ownership of underpriced Branden Grace. The hesitation here is the back injury that forced him to WD from Mayakoba and miss the cut at the RSM. Hopefully the month plus off has healed that back up and he can assist us in making a ton of money this week; and year.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Pat Perez (DK $7,100)
• Course History: 10th (2010)
• Form: Win – 7th
• 2017 Stats: 38h – SG:OTT, 19th – SG:APP, 8th – SG:T2G, 77th – SG:P, 42nd – DD, 54th – GIR, 12th – Birdie Avg, 122nd – Scrambling, 8th – BoB%
• Other – Perez makes his return to Maui after a 6 year hiatus and comes in at a really affordable price. First off his game looked sharp towards the end of the fall season, which was highlighted by his win in Mexico and I’m encouraged by his finish here in 2010. Being a ball striker and relatively long off the tee plays to his strength here this week as well as scoring on Par 4’s and Par 5’s (he was -8 on Par 4’s and -9 on the Par 5’s at Mayakoba) as well as being a Bermuda specialist where he’s gained 1.36 strokes on Bermuda vs .805 strokes gained total. I really like Perez as a deep diver this week even though the price isn’t really “punting”.

James Hahn (DK $6,900)
• Course History: 31st
• Form: 15th – 9th
• Stats: 112th – SG:OTT, 125th – SG:APP, 109th – SG:T2G, 147th – SG:P, 88th – DD, 119th – GIR, 142nd – Birdie Avg, 150th – Scrambling, 145th – BoB%
• Other – Hahn had a really good 2015-2016 season finishing with three top 10’s and a win at the Wells Fargo Championship where he beat Roberto Castro in a playoff. This year he’s made 2/3 cuts, and finished 9th at the CIMB Classic, a place he’s played well at the last two years now. I’ll be looking to roster Hahn as a cheap low owned player who has solid form coming in, is a strong ball striker and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes this week.

Fabian Gomez (DK $6,600)
• Tournament History: 6th
• Form: 5th – MC – 57th
• Stats: 104th – SG:OTT, 157th – SG:APP, 49th – SG:P, 13th – SG:T2G, 105th – DD, 141st – GIR, 110th – Birdie Avg, th 132nd – Scrambling, 110th – BoB%
• Other – Gomez is an anomaly to me. He typically plays well on thinking courses where scoring is “high” (meaning scores aren’t in the -20’s) as he doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, but on the flip side, he doesn’t make a ton of birdies either. Last year, I made a joke about how Fabian was going to make someone a lot of money, and what do you know – he did finishing 6th. The thing I didn’t realize at the time was that the course will give the short straight hitting Argentinian an even bigger advantage because of rollouts, thus turning his short, accurate tee shots into longer accurate tee shots and giving him wedges into greens. He won’t be in position to eagle the par 5’s like some of the others, but he’ll see an increase in birdie opportunities on Par 4’s and that’s where he excels. Gomez is also a Bermuda specialist gaining .995 more strokes on Bermuda vs. .47 strokes total.

ALSO CONSIDER – Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,400) hasn’t been to Maui since 2006 where he finished 4th (eleven years ago), following up an 8th place finish in 2005. I’d be more likely to roster him over any of these other guys as his game is more consistent and he’s shown he can play with the big boys by winning at Pebble. Charley Hoffman (DK $6,300) I assume, will be a popular play this week. He’s familiar, has course history (14th in 2015, 25th in 2012, 20th in 2008) and is a value play considering his Vegas odds compared to DK pricing. I don’t recommend him as a core play, but if you’re making several GPP lineups I think he deserves to see 15% or so of them in order to fit a couple studs at the top.

Final Note: Henrik Stenson ($8,600) is listed in the player pool. If he actually plays, I love him, but I doubt he does as he’s not listed on betting slips at the moment; another miscue on DK’s part. Don’t roster him unless you see that he’s in Maui playing practice rounds. More information will be made available once the official field is announced on Dec 31st.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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