Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Sanderson Farms

If you’re looking to play DFS contests with a cut this week, this is the golf tournament to target. Last year’s champion Peter Malnati played really well for the first few events of the year backing up his win with a T10 at Mayakoba and a T6 at Hyundai. After that he made two cuts from February through August and irons his tee shirts. Enough about him though, lets dive into what should result in another Web.Com graduate or first time winner being crowned as PGA Tour Champion and punch their ticket to Hawaii in January.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• Country Club of Jackson
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,421 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
o Location: Jackson, Mississippi
o Expected scoring: Winning scores have been fairly close, with Sunday getting the best of the overnight leaders from Saturday. -17 should do the trick this week. I’d lean heavy on the Web.com guys that score a bunch and mix in some older guys that are looking to collect a paycheck to get them through the end of the year.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Peter Malnati -18 over William McGirt and David Toms [-17]
• 2014: Nick Taylor -16 over Jason Bohn & Boo Weekley [-14]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT, SG:APP, SG:T2G, Birdie or Better %, SG:P, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – Ball Striking, Scrambling, SG:ARG

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STARS:

Patton Kizzire (DK $11,300)
• Course History: 4th
• Form: 2nd – MC – MC – 53rd
• Stats: 112th – SG:OTT, 24th – SG:APP, 48th – SG:ARG, 2nd – SG:P, 48th – SG:T2G, 76th – DD, 47th – GIR, 6th – Birdie Avg, 9th – Scrambling, 8th – BOB%
• Other – If not for an “out of the blue” 2nd place finish two weeks ago, I’m not sure I’d suggest Kizz this week, but outside of that I think his game translates well here and his 4th place finish last year confirms that suspicion. If I was going to start at the top this week, I’d definitely go with Patton and if you’re making multiple cash game teams he needs to be in at least one of them. For me though, I’ll mainly get my exposure to him in GPP’s.

Jerry Kelly (DK $9,400)
• Course History: 22nd
• Form: MC – 31st – 22nd
• Stats: 102nd – SG:OTT, 33rd – SG:APP, 122nd – SG”ARG, 142nd – SG:P, 64th – SG:T2G, 174th – DD, 3rd – DA, 66th – GIR, 169th – Birdie Avg, 7th – Scrambling, 159th – BOB%
• Other – The first old man to grace this preview article is the one and only Jerry Kelly. I don’t mind him for cash games as he typically tends to play up in these types of events – as he should considering he’s got the most tenure on Tour in the field (probably). Maybe taking some youngsters under his wing helps clear his mind and play golf free of any mental blocks or questions surrounding his future as an AARP member. Whatever it is, I’m buying it this week in cash games.

Boo Weekley (DK $9,000)
• Course History: 39th – 2nd
• Form: MC – 33rd – MC – 71st
• Stats: 10th – SG:OTT, 126th – SG:APP, 159th – SG:ARG, 145th – SG:P, 68th – SG:T2G, 84th – DD, 16th – DA, 41st – GIR, 45th – Birdie Avg, 94th – Scrambling, 70th – BOB%
• Other – Weekley spent some time with Steven Bowditch in Fiji a couple weeks ago drinking beers and fishing. One of them played golf for four days, can you guess which one it was? All jokes aside, Bowdo is a good hearted dude that’s grinding every week to help support his growing family and I’m a bit upset he already withdrew from this event. Anyways, Weekley is playing this weekend and has some decent course history to go off of. He’s from the south, so really the only thing we need to worry about is his focus on golf and not hunting, fishing, drinking Natty’s etc (this almost turned into a country song). I think he’s a solid cash game play this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Ian Poulter (DK $10,600) is the 138th ranked player in the world now, so he won’t get to take advantage of the luxury of playing in no cut events unless he steps his game up. That being said, if he’s fully recovered from his injury (28th at Safeway indicates he’s good to go) he should be able to play well in the south this week and shouldn’t get too bad of a reception from the fans. David Toms (DK $9,700) will be the chalkiest of chalk this week, if you play him, make sure it’s only in cash unless you plan on having 50% or more exposure to him in GPP’s. Ben Martin (DK $9,200) is a bermuda grass specialist and plays well on less than driver courses during the “normal” PGA Tour season so there’s no reason to think he won’t play well here considering that is the profile for this course and again this is a weak field. Bryce Molder (DK $8,600) should be a popular play this week and is definitely in play for cash games after finishing T4 last year. Maybe the missed cut at the Safeway will lower ownership, but I’m guessing it doesn’t lower it enough where you should load up on him. Its important to note that he plays better on Bermuda grass than other grasses as well.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Blayne Barber (DK $7,800)
• Tournament History: 39th – 9th
• Form: MC – 41st – 14th
• Stats: 100th – SG:OTT, 93rd – SG:APP, 121st – SG:ARG, 93rd – SG:P, 99th – SG:T2G, 97th – DD, 60th – DA, 63rd – GIR, 86th – Birdie Avg, 115th – Scrambling, 88th – BOB%
• Other – Barber’s a Bermuda specialist who gains .336 strokes on Bermuda grass versus the -.027 strokes he gains when playing on other greens grass types. That doesn’t seem like a lot of strokes, but the difference is enough for me to consider him in this field. My guess is his prowess on Bermuda grass stems from being an Auburn alum and playing the majority of his golf in the south, but maybe I’m off. Either way I think he makes for a somewhat sneaky play this week when most people will be looking for names they know or players who made the cut at the Safeway.

JJ Spaun (DK $7,500)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 55th
• Web.Com Stats: 64th – DD, 30th – DA, 2nd – GIR, 47th – Birdie Avg, 4th – Ball Striking, 7th – Scrambling, 38th – P3 BOB, 49th – P4 BOB, 55th – P5 BOB
• Other – This is where we’re going to make our money this week. Spaun may seem overpriced considering his odds, but he’s got talent. Real quick, if you don’t know what this guy looks like go check his picture out at Pgatour.com, he doesn’t look like a “JJ”, nor does he look like he was born in 1990. If only looking at his Web.Com statistics, you’ll see he hits a ton of greens in regulation, ranks high in the ball striking department, can scramble and keeps it in play at 70% of the time off the tee. He looks like he’s going to break out very soon based on his statistical breakdown.

ALSO CONSIDER – Martin Flores (DK $7,800) has me intrigued due to his Bermuda vs other “splits” gaining more than half a stroke on Bermuda versus total. I was really high on him at the Safeway and he disappointed me so the fact that I’m willing to give him another shot means a lot. On the Web.Com Tour he hit 72% of greens in regulation and converted on 23% of those birdies, he didn’t fair that well in his debut this year, but it should “regress back to the mean”(I hate that phrase and feel like a douche for using it). Seung Yul Noh (DK $7,700) is the Sanderson’s version of Si Woo Kim this week. He’ll be low owned, and possesses a strong tee to green game. I don’t suggest using him in cash as he’ll miss cuts in weak field events, but for GPP’s he could be a huge difference maker.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Camilo Villegas (DK $7,100)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 34th – MC – MC
• Stats: 182nd – SG:OTT, 101st – SG:APP, 65th – SG:ARG, 52nd – SG:P, 166th – SG:T2G, 127th – DD, 170th – GIR, 140th – Birdie Avg, 73rd – Scrambling, 137th – BOB%
• Other – Have you played Villegas in stronger field events? If you answered yes to that question, then you should have no hesitation playing him at this price in this field. Camilo is grinding on Tour right now and every tournament counts. His made cut didn’t come on the PGA Tour so that’s something to keep in mind here, but really he NEEDS to make the cut this week for his own confidence as well as a chance at obtaining a card for this year. Not a cash play, but deserves decent exposure in GPP’s. If you’re playing 10 lineups, two of them should include Spiderman.

Steve Marino (DK $6,700)
• Course History: MC
• Form: MC – 8th – MC – 70th – 35th
• Stats: 76th – SG OTT, 162nd – SG:APP, 168th – SG:ARG, 85th – SG:P, 164th – SG:T2G, 79th – DD, 85th – GIR, 96th – Birdie Avg, 125th – Scrambling, 110th – BOB%
• Other – This is a gut call on a cheap player. For whatever reason, whenever I see his name before a tournament that he’s actually in I think about playing him, end up not playing him and he does well. Let me be clear, he is not a cash game play at all, but if you’re looking for someone with ownership and scoring upside I think Marino is your guy. Again, that’s just a gut call that could be totally wrong, but he popped up on my radar and if you have 5-7% of him in GPPs it could be a good move. If you’re only playing 10 lineups I wouldn’t recommend him seeing any of them. Statistically he should not be on your radar.

Seamus Power (DK $6,500)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: MC – MC
• Web.Com Stats: 57th – DD, 94th – DA, 13th – GIR, 41st – Putting Avg, 45th – Birdie Avg, 48th – Ball Striking, 47th – BOB%
• Other – Seamus didn’t live up to expectations at the Safeway and I’m ok with that. Whether or not he goes into this event with the same mentality that he did during Web.com events will be the key to success. The East Tennessee State alum should have a decent sample of strokes on Bermuda grass coming from a southern state college so I would think he’d be putting better on these greens than the poa/bent that gave him fits in Napa.

ALSO CONSIDER – Zach Sucher (DK $6,800) missed the cut here last year, but now he’s a Web.com graduate. He also missed the cut in his debut as a PGA Tour player. I’m willing to give him a pass on his play at the Safeway considering he’s a UAB alum and probably has seen this course more than some think. His putting was really the only thing that held him down at the Safeway, so like Power I’m going to attribute that to the poa/bent combo on the greens. Definitely like him to bounce back this week. Charlie Danielson (DK $6,600) isn’t a graduate of the Web.com Tour, nor does he go to college in the south, but what he has done is made cuts in previous PGA & European Tour events in the last two months and that’s why he’s in consideration this week. Charlie’s accurate off the tee (62%) hits greens at a decent rate (62%) and has a birdie average on the PGA Tour of 3.80. Most of his birdies are coming on Par 5’s so he’ll need to keep that going again this week. Jonathan Byrd (DK $6,200) is another grinder (do you see a pattern in this preview article yet?) that needs to play well now, so he can continue playing PGA Tour events once the “real” season starts up. Byrd’s a ball striker who doesn’t do a lot of flashy things, but he’s also not going to blow up on you either (consider him a middle class Mike Weir that can make a cut). In two appearances here, he’s finished 39th & 25th and at that price I’m more than willing to throw him in cash and GPP’s as a guy I have confidence in making the cut for me.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Chris Kirk (DK $11,700)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 8th – 10th – 33rd – MC
• Stats: 80th – SG:OTT, 42nd – SG:APP, 40th – SG:ARG, 98th – SG:P, 35th – SG:T2G, 136th – DD, 132nd – GIR, 123rd – Birdie Avg, 16th – Scrambling, 125th – BOB%
• Other – To say this tournament is a weak field event is putting it mildly with Chris Kirk as the favorite. Yes he finished 8th at the Safeway where he hit 75% of greens in regulation and shot ten under par on the par 4’s, but I don’t think that game travels to Jackson this week. It is worth noting that Kirk is from Atlanta, so maybe there’s some narrative for him to play well this week, but I just don’t see myself paying up for him when I can get much better ownership on the young guns that could actually be better than him for cash games. He’s a full go for GPP’s though (as long as you’re around 20% exposure, no need to get crazy with an $11k+ Chris Kirk play here).

Xander Schauffele (DK $6,400)
• Course History: 56th – 2nd – 2nd
• Form: 10th – 24th – 15th – 4th
• Web.Com Stats: 23rd – DD, 127th – DA, 46th – GIR, 20th – Putting Avg, 44th – Birdie Avg, 73rd – Ball Striking, 10th – Scrambling, 48th – BOB%
• Other – Xander was one of those exciting new players that everyone was buzzing about two weeks ago and he burned everyone that played him. He didn’t play bad, just had a few bad holes that ended up taking him out of a tournament that had a pretty high cut line. This week the San Diego State alum heads south to what I expect to be faster greens that should assist in his putting woes. At this price, its really tough to overlook him in GPP’s especially considering how strong his game was as a Web.Com player.

ALSO CONSIDER – Scott Stallings (DK $8,900) & Troy Merritt (DK $7,600) both seem to play well on “thinker” style courses and this can be construed as one of them as its “less than driver” and neither of them are extremely long off the tee, which means they close the gap on the bombers. Neither player is ever owned in many events whether its strong field or weak, and Merritt showed some form at the Safeway which really made me happy. Stallings has a 28th place finish here last year which makes me feel even better about this recommendation. I wouldn’t make them core plays in GPP’s but both are worth looks as tertiary plays.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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