Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Safeway Open

OVERVIEW
And we’re back! The players got their one week breather as we start the beginning of the 2016-2017 “wrap around” season. Formerly known as the Frys.Com Open, the Safeway Open returns to Silverado Country Club in Napa, CA (wine country). The course is a Robert Trent Jones Jr. design that was updated in 2011 by ol’ Johnny Miller. Being on the west coast means we’re back to poa greens so make sure you look to target players who have played well on poa greens as well as those who play well in weak fields (even the star power this week is less than desirable). When looking at the type of golfer that succeeds here we see a bit of a mix of bombers and ball strikers and perhaps the most interesting name listed below being Steven Bowditch’s runner-up finish in 2014. For GPP’s, I think it would be wise to target some of the lesser known Web.com graduates so make sure you check out Keagan Scott’s preview: Web.com graduates to watch on the PGA Tour to read up on the newest additions to the PGA Tour. One last note, I’ll be continuing to list the player’s statistics from last year until they have a decent enough sample size (most players won’t until mid-February).

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• Silverado Country Club – North Course
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,203 yards
• Greens: Poa Annua
o Location: Napa, CA
o Expected scoring: Scores have consistently been between -15 & -18 over the past few years so I think we can expect similar scoring this week and as of writing this there isn’t any major weather concerns to speak of.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Emiliano Grillo -15 over Kevin Na in a playoff
• 2014: Sangmoon Bae -15 over Steven Bowditch [-13]
• 2013: Jimmy Walker -17 over Vijay Singh [-15]
• 2012: Jonas Blixt -16 over Tim Petrovic & Jason Kokrak [-15]
• 2011: Bryce Molder -17 over Briny Baird in a playoff
• 2010: Rocco Mediate -15 over Alex Prugh & Bo Van Pelt [-14]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT, SG:APP, SG:T2G, Birdie or Better %, SG:P, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – Ball Striking, Scrambling, SG:ARG, Driving Accuracy

STARS:

Paul Casey (DK $11,600)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 4th – 2nd – 2nd – 31st
• Stats: 21st – SG:OTT, 11th – SG:APP, 55th – SG:ARG, 75th – SG:P, 7th – SG:T2G, 54th – DD, 36th – DA, 2nd – GIR, 36th – Scrambling, 152nd – P3 BoB, 61st – P4 BoB, 34th – P5 BoB
• Other – Casey caught fire during the FedEx Cup playoffs and looks to keep that momentum going here this week. He’s long off the tee and is considered a good striker of the ball so he possesses two traits that have led to success here in the past. I don’t think the price is too outrageous even though he has zero course history, but with that being said I’d only look to roster him in GPP’s this week.

Matt Kuchar (DK $11,500)
• Course History: 21st
• Form: 15th – 4th – 46th – 64th
• Stats: 37th – SG:OTT, 45th – SG:APP, 28th – SG:ARG, 28th – SG:P, 16th – SG:T2G, 137th – DD, 24th – DA, 43rd – GIR, 34th – Scrambling, 126th – P3 BoB, 17th – P4 BoB, 17th – P5 BoB
• Other – Cash Game Kuchar pegs it this week coming off an emotional Ryder Cup victory where he really didn’t do a lot to impress me. Kuch made a couple key putts during Thursday foursomes with DJ, but outside of that he basically let his partners do all the heavy lifting. This course is much different than Hazeltine, but I don’t think we can expect much more than a Top 20 finish out of him this week.

Phil Mickelson (DK $11,300)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 22nd – 24th – MC – 13th
• Stats: 132nd – SG:OTT, 5th – SG:APP, 34th – SG:ARG, 9th – SG:P, 27th – SG:T2G, 56th – DD, 163rd – DA, 84th – GIR, 4th – Scrambling, 3rd – P3 BoB, 56th – P4 BoB, 10th – P5 BoB
• Other – Phil has been erratic since the PGA Championship at Baltusrol. He’s never played at this course, but I’m sure it’ll be said several times that Napa is his home (either adopted or referenced to the fact that he lives in the state). I think he’s here mainly because top players are required to make an appearance at this event within the first five years of its existence, but it seems odd that he committed after the Ryder Cup. Phil looked gassed the last few times we’ve seen him so I think I’d look at rostering him only in GPP’s this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Emiliano Grillo (DK $10,900) is the defending champion and played very well from the PGA Championship through the Tour Championship. His ball striking and total driving ability are what continue to put him in good positions each week and I don’t expect that to change this week. Typically I would be fading a rookie defending champion (meaning this is his first title defense), but Grillo has plenty of skill and has shown us he has the ability to hang with the strongest fields which shouldn’t be an issue here this week. Kevin Na (DK $9,900) finished 2nd here last year losing to Grillo in the playoff and the course sets up very well for his skill set. Na keeps it in the fairway off the tee which is a key secondary stat to look at this week. If a player isn’t long off the tee they need to be able to keep it in the fairway in order to have success (or scramble their butt off), which is exactly how Na continues to make cuts and contend week in and week out.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Russell Henley (DK $7,700)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: MC – 48th – 46th – 11th – 22nd
• Stats: 50th – SG:OTT, 90th – SG:APP, 56th – SG:P, 65th – SG:T2G, 48th – DD, 55th – DA, 29th – GIR, 41st – Scrambling, 29th – P3 BoB, 70th – P4 BoB, 133rd – P5 BoB
• Other – Henley’s history of being an early season wonder is no secret so let’s take advantage of someone who plays well during this time of year. He didn’t play much of the FedEx Cup playoffs, but up until his final missed cut it looked like things were finally starting to click for him. The price is nice for GPP’s, but I think I’d look elsewhere in cash games this week.

Charles Howell III (DK $7,600)
• Course History: 17th – 71st
• Form: 47th – 24th – MC
• Stats: 72nd – SG:OTT, 99th – SG:APP, 16th – SG:ARG, 72nd – SG:P, 17th – DD, 174th – DA, 38th – GIR, 44th – Scrambling, 145th – P3 BoB, 45th – P4 BoB, 14th – P5 BoB
• Other – Howell’s surgery kept him out of action for a huge chunk of the season last year and there was some obvious rust that needed to be knocked off when he came back. Fast forward to this week and CH3 has had two months to get back to 100% and work on his game while everyone else was participating in the FEC & Ryder Cup. Howell, like Henley, is known as an early season horse and I expect more of the same from him this year (barring any setbacks)

Grayson Murray (DK $7,500)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: WIN – 3rd – WD – 32nd
• Web.Com Stats: 4th – DD, 88th – DA, 48th – GIR, 5th – Putting Avg, 1st – Birdie Avg, 12th – Sandies, 15th – Total Driving, 23rd – Ball Striking, 16th – Scrambling
• Other – Murray is a bomber in the truest sense averaging almost 320 yards off the tee and keeps it in the fairway over 60% of the time (think Dustin Johnson Lite). I have a feeling he’ll be more popular once everyone has had a chance to digest his statistics. He finished off his last two Web.Com events with a 3rd place finish and a win (which people will see in his form) and the #1 ranking in birdie average will definitely catch people’s eyes. I don’t mind the play for either cash or GPPs this week as he has a ton of game and considering where he’s priced I think people may opt for other well-known players (definitely check back to the ownership tab this week to see where Jeff & Zach project him as he could be an elite play one way or the other).

ALSO CONSIDER – Tony Finau (DK $8,300) is a much better putter on poa annua than any other species and seeing him priced where he is appears to be a huge value considering the type of player he is. Finau finally broke out in a similar weak field event last year at the Puerto Rico Open (albeit that field was WAY weaker). Finau’s length off the tee may cause him fits if he’s not hitting his spots, but I’ll still take a bomber with a low iron in over shorter hitters and long irons any day. Smylie Kaufman (DK $7,900) finally got rid of his five month hangover and turned in a few decent performances to finish out the year. Last year, Smylie broke out at the Shriners for his first win of his budding career and could be in for another good performance this week; where he finished T10 last year. Hudson Swafford (DK $7,800) made a late charge through the FEC playoffs last year but fell short after the BMW Championship. He’s a Thursday-Friday horse who made 22 of 30 cuts and even turned in a T17 finish here last year which is encouraging considering it takes players a few rounds to really get to know where to hit the ball off the tee here. We love Hudson for his cut making and birdie bombing ability, don’t overthink this solid value play this week.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Fabian Gomez (DK $7,000)
• Tournament History: 17th
• Form: 47th – 5th – 60th – 15th
• Stats: 104th – SG:OTT, 157th – SG:APP, 88th – SG:ARG, 49th – SG:P, 137th – SG:T2G, 105th – DD, 73rd – DA, 141st – GIR, 132nd – Scrambling, 23rd – P3 BoB, 154th – P4 BoB, 73rd – P5 BoB
• Other – Gomez is someone you won’t typically see in this preview article, mainly because I’m not a fan of his game. Like most people, I prefer to highlight guys that bomb it all over the place and make birdies because they’re the ones you see on TV. Unless he’s leading, you rarely see Gomez on TV and therefore its tough to suggest playing him because all I can see via statistics is that he pops up when you least expect it. Looking at his form you have to like what you see and finishing 17th quietly last year is what’s landing him in this spot. The course is difficult and I think his conservative style of play will translate to some more success this week.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,000)
• Course History: 17th – 53rd
• Form: MC – 31st – MC – 47th
• Stats: 52nd – SG: OTT, 16th – SG:APP, 151st – SG:P, 29th – SG:T2G, 123rd – DD, 10th – DA, 37th – GIR, 15th – Scrambling, 104th – P3 BoB, 86th – P4 BoB, 79th – P5 BoB
• Other – Another guy I don’t typically write-up, Reavie looks to return to the place where it all started for him last year. Reavie made his first six cuts beginning with a trip around Silverado CC with a low round Sunday 66 which catapulted him into the Top 20. His strengths are accuracy, scrambling and putting so it makes sense to go back to the well here. I’m fine with playing him in cash or GPP’s this week.

Zach Sucher (DK $6,500)
• Tournament History: MC
• Form: 9th – 37th – 5th – MC
• Web.Com Stats: 91st – DD, 32nd – DA, 23rd – GIR, 30th – Putting Avg, 20th – Birdie Avg, 40th – Total Driving, 23rd – Ball Striking, 21st – Scrambling
• Other – Outside of Wes Bryan, I think Sucher is probably one of the more polished players to move on from the Web.Com finals to the Tour this week. He’s an excellent ball striker who keeps it in the fairway and hits a ton of greens in regulation (which also has resulted in 309 birdies this year). The driving distance is a concern, but I’d like to think of him as a younger Kevin Na (without the mental issues). I think Sucher is a great deep dive play this week if looking to go stars & scrubs in cash or for GPPs.

ALSO CONSIDER – CT Pan (DK $7,400), Colt Knost (DK $7,200), and Seamus Power (DK $6,200) are all players that should be on your radar in this price range as Power & Pan both look to build off of their Olympic experience as well as not getting to finish out the Web.Com Finals due to Hurricane Matthew. Knost was solid for most of last year until he hit the Open Championship, but as we know his game isn’t well suited for true links golf – his accuracy here will make or break him this week. Power hits a ton of greens and fairways in regulation and isn’t a slouch off the tee by any means, averaging over 297 yards off the tee. CT Pan stands 5’ 6” tall, but is a stud. Averaging 292 yards off the tee is pretty astounding considering his stature and like many of his Asian brethren, his putting is what keeps the checks coming. I really like CT for GPP’s this week and have even considered him for cash games as he hits over 70% of fairways.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Justin Thomas (DK $10,400)
• Course History: 3rd – MC
• Form: 6th – 32nd – MC – 10th – MC
• Stats: 97th – SG:OTT, 20th – SG:APP, 131st – SG:P, 53rd – SG:T2G, 24th – DD, 167th – DA, 94th – GIR, 35th – Birdie Avg, 151st – Scrambling, 61st – P3 BoB, 59th – P4 BoB, 30th – P5 BoB
• Other – Originally I wasn’t going to write him up, but then I realized the reason I didn’t want to was the same reason why he should be written up as a GPP play – lack of accuracy. Having a weakness in one facet of your game isn’t a reason to fade a player. Even if that lack of accuracy off the tee is what hinders his scoring ability, JT knows how to get the job done when it comes down to it. He played well last year coming off a missed cut the year before as well as playing some strong golf to end the year. Team USA won the Ryder Cup without him, but I still think there’s a part of him that would like to show DL3 he snubbed the wrong guy.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,200)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: MC – 14th – 25th – 2nd
• Stats: N/A – didn’t log enough rounds last year
• Other – Rahm is no stranger to being a shiny DFS toy and shouldn’t be ignored this week. He’s exactly what we want in a GPP play as he plays aggressively which results in a lot of birdie opportunities. He didn’t log enough rounds last year to be listed on the PGATour.com rankings, but he bombs it over 300 yards off the tee, hits 61% of fairways, averages 4.4 birdies per round and has a scoring average of 69.14 (which would be ranked #1 over Dustin Johnson at 69.17).

ALSO CONSIDER – Brendan Steele ($8,700), Wesley Bryan (DK $7,900) Patrick Rodgers (DK $7,400) James Hahn (DK $7,200) all possess similar skills that I like this week and should be fairly low owned. Bryan was the best player on the Web.Com Tour last year and jumped ship early, earning status after his 3rd win. He’s a pure ball striker who has above average length off the tee and might be the best putter on the PGA Tour this year. Rodgers has been up and down all year, but gets a fresh start and hopefully continues the success he saw at the beginning of last year and the end of 2015-16. James Hahn is my ultimate sleeper this week as people tend to fade him for whatever reason. I’m looking at him for possibly a quiet win this week as he’s familiar with the layout (41st – MC) and is a ball striker with length and accuracy off the tee. My gut feeling of the week is Brendan Steele. He’s long and accurate off the tee, solid with his long irons and can putt. He’ll be a core play for me this week.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)