Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- RSM Classic

OVERVIEW

Last week team PXG tallied another win in their stable with Pat Perez coming out of pretty much nowhere to win the OHL Mayakoba. He had been trending pretty well as of late so it was probably an error on my part to not recommend him, but it’d difficult to gauge how well a player is actually playing coming off injury when you don’t get to see live golf. This week we move north from Mexico to Georgia where Kevin Kisner looks to defend his title against a fairly weak field. When looking at past winners you’ll notice that for the most part you’re seeing guys that have strong iron play who aren’t considered bombers off the tee, so we’ll definitely be focusing on players who keep it in play and hit a ton of greens this week. This event isn’t the most popular amongst the big names in golf, but they’ll still give away a trophy and a novelty check so let’s get into the plays.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Courses
• Sea Island Golf Club – Seaside Course (three rounds) & Plantation Course (one round)
• Par: 70 (Seaside) & 72 (Plantation)
• Yardage: 7,005 yards (Seaside) & 7,058 yards (Plantation)
• Greens: Bermuda
o Location: St. Simons Island, GA
o Expected scoring: Looking at scoring over the past five years or so it looks like last year was an outlier for Kevin Kisner shooting better than 20 under so I assume we see scores normalize back to around -15 this week. The weather as of writing looks perfect with highs in the low 70’s so hopefully that doesn’t change much as the week progresses. Winds will definitely affect the players on the Seaside course, but everyone has to play that course so there’s no real advantage other than to possibly target lower ball flight hitters.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2016: Kevin Kisner -22 over Kevin Chappell [-16]
• 2015: Robert Streb -14 over Brendon deJonge & Will Mackenzie in a playoff
• 2014: Chris Kirk -14 over Briny Baird & Tim Clark [-13]
• 2012: Tommy Gainey -16 over David Toms [-15]
• 2011: Ben Crane -15 over Webb Simpson in a playoff
• 2010: Heath Slocum -14 over Bill Haas [-13]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG:T2G, SG:APP, Birdie Or Better
o Important – SG:OTT, Driving Accuracy, SG:Putting

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STARS:

Chris Kirk (DK $11,300)
• Course History: 18th – 4th – WIN – 64th – MC – 15th
• Form: 7th – 61st – 2nd – 8th
• Stats: 80th – SG:OTT, 42nd – SG:APP, 98th – SG:P, 35th – SG:T2G, 68th – DA, 123rd – Birdie Avg, 16th – Scrambling, 136th – BoB%
• Other – Kirk is one of a couple PXG players who has yet to notch a win since making the switch to their clubs, but he could be considered one of the hottest players on Tour during the fall season. Kirk’s a Georgia native who’s been trending nicely minus the hiccup two weeks ago, but I’m going heavy on him this week; he’s a core play for cash & GPP’s this week.

Matt Kuchar (DK $11,200)
• Course History: 25th – 22nd – 7th – 20th – 25th
• Form: 21st
• Stats: 37th – SG:OTT, 45th – SG:APP, 28th – SG:P, 16th – SG:T2G, 24th – DA, 13th – Birdie Avg, 34th – Scrambling, 13th – BoB%
• Other – Cash game Kuchar might be priced a bit high this week to start with him in cash games. With only one Top 10 finish in five appearances I’m extremely hesitant to roster him at all at this price. Yes the 100% cut making is usually a good indicator for cash games, but you’ll have to go stars & scrubs if you want to roster him with another high priced guy and as of writing this, I’m not sure if I’m comfortable with that kind of roster construction for cash. I definitely will be fading him in GPP’s.

Kevin Kisner (DK $9,300)
• Course History: WIN – 4th – 20th – MC – 26th
• Form: 70th – 26th
• Stats: 40th – SG:OTT, 137th – SG:APP, 3rd – SG:P, 33rd – DA, 39th – Birdie Avg, 129th – Scrambling, 36th – BoB%
• Other – Kis is a strong putter on Bermuda greens and when he’s trending upwards he’s a good play to have as part of your core for cash. The problem with him this week is, he hasn’t teed it up in two weeks and when he has teed it up this year we’ve seen a mixed bag of results. Kisner went to school at U of GA & lives in Georgia, so maybe some home cooking is what he needs to finish off the 2016 season, but I’d take a “wait and see” approach with him this week for tournaments.

ALSO CONSIDER – Brandt Snedeker (DK $10,900) doesn’t have the track record here to warrant any kind of consideration and since he’s a better putter on Bentgrass than Bermuda it makes sense when looking at his past finishes here (MC last year – 32nd in 2011). Let others take a chance on him this week. Bill Haas (DK $9,800) thrives in weak field events like this and he’s proven that when looking at his history here – 33rd, 22nd, 2nd (2010). I think he makes for a fine cash play with some decent GPP upside, but I’ll primarily be using him in cash this week. I really like the way Luke List (DK $9,400) has been playing during the fall season and considering how close he’s been week after week I think he deserves some GPP consideration. I’d like the play a lot more if we were getting him in the $6-$7k range like we do during most events, but this is a great pivot off of more household names this week. Harris English (DK $8,800) disappointed a lot of us last week, but this is a situation where you can’t let recency bias creep in when building your lineups. The Georgia native has been really solid in four appearances having only missed one cut and only missed the cut by a stroke last week. Let others fade him because he burned them last week.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Charles Howell III (DK $9,200)
• Tournament History: 9th – MC – 27th – 7th – 32nd – 6th
• Form: 7th – 15th – 39th – MC
• Stats: 99th – SG:APP, 72nd – SG:P, 47th – SG:T2G, 17th – DD, 21st – Birdie Avg, 125th – Prox from 150-175 yards, 44th – Scrambling, 45th – P4 BoB%
• Other – Lock in the Georgia native in your cash games and about 40% of your GPP teams and move on. I’m only partially kidding with that, but you have to like what you see in Chucky’s game right now backing up his 15th place finish with a 7th last week in Mexico. As mentioned in this article last week, Chucky makes the majority of his money during this time of year and I don’t expect that to change this week. He’ll be chalky but this is the kind of chalk we eat.

Kevin Streelman (DK $9,100)
• Tournament History: MC – 6th
• Form: 4th – 61st – 18th
• Stats: 70th – SG:APP, 167th – SG:P, 63rd – SG:T2G, 104th – DD, 82nd – Birdie Avg, 48th – Prox from 150-175 yards, 174th – Scrambling, 123rd – P4 BoB%
• Other – Streelman was highlighted in this space last week as a value play who I said “had less value at his price than Howell”, yeah I was wrong as he had more DK points and finished three spots higher than Howell, but he played very well (which is something I also said he’d do coming off a really strong performance the week prior where he only had a couple holes that really took him out of the tournament). I think Streels continues to roll this week and should be in consideration for both cash and as a pivot off of Howell for GPP’s.

ALSO CONSIDER – Ryan Blaum (DK $7,900) is one of the new faces on Tour that continues to produce week in and week out. Beginning with the Safeway where he finished T26, followed by a T11 at Sanderson Farms, T31 at the Shriners and finishing T15 in in Mexico last week. It feels like this might be a letdown spot for him as he’s gotten the DraftKings price bump so I wouldn’t be heavily invested in him this week, but I do like that he’s met or exceeded his value in every week even if he was priced cheaper than he is this week. Hudson Swafford (DK $7,700) is another Georgia native who will be in my cash & GPP teams this week. The Swafficer continues to make a ton of birdies (18 in each of his last two events) and make cuts. I’d love it if he could finally play well for all four rounds this week as he only sees a $200 price increase from last week. Ben Martin (DK $7,500) is considered “Mr. Bermuda Greens” in DFS circles and this week he should see a fairly high increase in ownership. I’m not sure if I’d consider him cash game viable if only based on heavy ownership, but he has made two of three cuts in this event with a high finish of 17th in 2015. If you’re making two cash lineups I think he deserves to be in one of them.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Cameron Tringale (DK $6,900)
• Course History: 22nd – 27th – MC – 26th – MC
• Form: 46th – 31st – 76th – MC
• Stats: 166th – SG:OTT, 61st – SG:APP, 83rd – SG:P, 122nd – SG:T2G, 99th – DA, 62nd – Birdie Avg, 124th – Scrambling, 62nd – BoB%
• Other – Let’s hope Cameron shows up this week instead of his alter ego Scameron Tringale. Cam is the better of the two that gives us hope Thursday & Friday when starting out hot and keeping it somewhat warm over the weekend. Scameron, on the other hand, is the guy that gives us Friday cut sweats and ends up having that one hole that leaves us with an empty spot on our rosters. Cam’s tee to green game is what we’re after here, and as long as the putter shows up he should be a lock for the weekend. Like Matt Kuchar, Cameron went to school at Georgia Tech, and that may be why he has shown the comfort when playing here.

Chad Campbell (DK $6,300)
• Tournament History: 9th – 41st – 36th – 7th – MC – 33rd
• Form: 35th – 61st – 45th – 57th
• Stats: 75th – SG:APP, 105th – SG:P, 41st – SG:T2G, 36th – DD, 129th – Birdie Avg, 106th – Prox from 150-175 yards, 111th – Scrambling, 140th – P4 BoB%
• Other – As with a lot of the players mentioned in this article, Soup’s strengths are tee to green where he ranked 41st last year. Last week he didn’t do much to gauge additional interest in him this week (which is ok for our sake) so we might be able to get him at reduced ownership again; even though the price is perfect for him to be played this week. I actually think you can feel comfortable rostering him in cash this week as well as he hasn’t missed a cut all year and is far removed from his lone MC at this event.

ALSO CONSIDER – Kyle Stanley (DK $6,800) has an above average track record here having made the cut in all three appearances and finishing inside the Top 35 once. He’s primarily a GPP play as we saw last week missing the cut after a 7th place finish the week prior, but in that same regard he does have a ton of upside at this price. Michael Johnson (DK $6,600) is a huge value play this week based solely on his vegas odds versus where he’s priced. Consider the fact that I rarely take vegas odds into account when creating lineups, but this seems too good to be true as Johnson is a pretty good stick and at the same odds as Roberto Castro, but $2,000 cheaper. I’d guess he’ll be a lot higher owned than you may think this week, mainly because a lot of DFS players do take Vegas odds into account versus DK pricing. From a golf perspective, like I said, he’s a good stick he just needs to play more so we can actually see how he plays. His 18th place finish at Sanderson Farms should be a decent indication of what to expect as a ceiling this week. Brendon deJonge (DK $6,100) will probably be a popular play this week as he hasn’t missed a cut at this event in six tries, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned playing him, is that he doesn’t belong in your cash game lineups. I know the price makes a lot of things possible, but don’t give yourself that heartache on Friday.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Kevin Chappell (DK $10,200)
• Course History: 2nd – 8th – 32nd – 43rd
• Form: 35th – 45th
• Stats: 45th – SG:OTT, 9th – SG:APP, 160th – SG:P, 13th – SG:T2G, 87th – DA, 72nd – Birdie Avg, 79th – Scrambling, 55th – BoB%
• Other – Chappie comes in with some less than desireable form especially when considering the type of courses he’s finished outside of the Top 30 on in the last month. The course history here indicates signs of comfort and since Jason Day isn’t in the field you have to love his chances here as a tournament play. The rule with him is “never in cash” and this is one of those weeks. I won’t have 40% exposure to him this week, but I think targeting 20-25% is a good number as he’s a great tee to green player who can get hot with the putter and lead a tournament through 54 holes.

Roberto Castro (DK $8,200)
• Course History: 52nd – 69th – 27th
• Form: 30th
• Stats: 59th – SG:OTT, 32nd – SG:APP, 149th – SG:P, 21st – SG:T2G, 6th – DA, 48th – Birdie Avg, 62nd – Scrambling, 47th – BoB%
• Other – Castro had a really good 2016 season and hasn’t missed a cut in about four months. Many will look at his finishing position and price and go elsewhere, but I don’t think that’s a wise move this week as he’s a strong tee to green player who just needs the putter to show up in order to contend and he’s not really a flashy name in the industry. Castro makes for a strong HuLo candidate this week and should primarily be considered for tournaments.

ALSO CONSIDER – Russell Henley (DK $9,900) is a Georgia native who has a strong course history with a 6th place finish last year and a 4th place finish two years ago. The kicker here is the Bermuda greens and his form coming in (24th – 14th in his last two events) and he has the birdie making upside that we want for tournaments. Whatever his issue was early in the year seems to be corrected and he should be a core play this week. Si Woo Kim (DK $9,500) withdrew last week due to a back injury, so keep your eyes on Twitter for any early withdrawal news before lock. Si Woo got off to a rough start last week and clearly it was due to an injury as he’s normally a really strong player on ball striker tracks and that’s what we have here this week. Si Woo doesn’t get much love from the industry and always comes in at sub 10% ownership; coming off a WD I can only anticipate that ownership dips even more this week. Scott Stallings (DK $6,200) was mentioned in this piece last week due to the feud (that I may have created on my own) with Harris English where they both missed the cut by one. His history here is good enough for me to take another shot at pairing the duo up again this week, especially if they’re paired together in the first round. This play is more of a fun/gut play for me, because his form is horrendous (hasn’t made a cut yet this year), but at this price I’m willing to roster him as a tertiary play in GPP’s.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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