Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- RBC Heritage

The Masters has come to an end and now we move on to the RBC Heritage. It kind of feels like going back to work the Monday after a killer weekend trip to Las Vegas. Nonetheless, we here at Fantasy Golf Insider will never mail it in, and give a half-ass effort that others in the industry might the week after The Masters. We were analyzing our data for the RBC Heritage before the final putt dropped at Augusta. How much are you loving the fact that we have recommended Jordan Spieth as a stud pick every time over his past four tournaments in which he has delivered two runner-ups and two wins. We predicted Spieth would win at least one tour event this year along with a major in our Fantasy Golf Crystal Ball article we wrote before the season. We love his killer instinct and ability to come through in the clutch. We also love that he is the perfect example that Strokes Gained is the single best statistic to analyze and predict who will be successful. To prove that, check out where Spieth ranks in other popular statistical categories: Driving Distance = 55th, Driving Accuracy = 101st, Greens in Regulation = 103rd. Now check out where he ranks in Strokes Gained: Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green = 4th, Strokes Gained Putting = 5th, Total Strokes Gained = 2nd. It is not a coincidence, strokes gained is the best indicator of success, period. There are some industry “experts” who say that strokes gained doesn’t matter. Fantasy Golf Insider members know the power of the statistic and will continue to profit off the followers of those other industry “experts” and we love it. For more information on this topic, check out our article: Do Statistics Really Matter in Fantasy Golf, written by our own Jeff Bergerson.

We hope to keep the momentum going as we had a very strong week last week at The Masters. We have heard from many of our premium members who had legitimate runs at the $1M, which makes us very happy. Of course Spieth did well for us, but other top stud picks Rory (4th) and Dustin Johnson (T6) performed as well. Bubba was a letdown with a T38. Speaking of letdowns, J.B Holmes cost us big time as he failed to even make the cut. We were able to balance that out with a couple good sleeper picks in Kevin Na (T12) and Cameron Tringale (T38).

This week the PGA Tour heads to the Sea Pines Resort, in Hilton Head South Carolina and the Harbour Town Golf Links Course. This tournament has been played since 1969, although under different title sponsor names. Most people identify the course by the iconic red and white lighthouse behind the 18th green. Harbour Town Golf Links is a par 71 and is one of the shortest courses on tour at 7,101 yards. It contains extremely narrow fairways surrounded by hundreds of large oak and pine trees. Its greens are also very small and contoured. It has three Par 5s and four Par 3s.

Coming off of his Masters win, Jordan Spieth will be at the RBC Heritage along with defending champion Matt Kuchar, and 10 of the top 30 players in the world rankings. Last year Kuchar won dramatically by holing a chip on the final hole of regulation to claim a one-stroke triumph over Luke Donald. The closing holeout capped a 6-under-par 64, completing a comeback from a four-shot deficit to begin the day. Luke Donald will try again for that elusive first victory at Hilton Head, having played the past six editions in a combined 47-under par without winning and placing in the top three 5 out of his last 6 appearances. Other past winners of this event, Jim Furyk, the 2010 winner, and Brandt Snedeker the 2011 winner will be in the field.

As with every week, we look closely at the Strokes Gained Statistic, especially Tee-To-Green. In addition to Strokes Gained, the best stats to analyze this week are driving accuracy, greens in regulation, and greens in regulation percentage from other than the fairway. As we mentioned earlier, the fairways are extremely narrow and it is almost impossible to hit all of them, so there will be a lot of approach shots out of the rough. Thus we want to see who excels at greens in regulation from places other than the fairway. The greens are small and it is going to favor those players that have extreme accuracy. Since the course is so short, driving distance will not be a large factor as it has over many of the tournaments over the past month and a half.

Tournament history is important at a course like Harbour Links because it is specific in its nature, being that it is short and narrow. A few of the players that have had good success here in the past include Luke Donald who has five Top 3 finishes in his last six appearances, Jim Furyk who has four Top 10s in his last seven appearances, and Boo Weekley who has won this tournament twice. Check out our Tournament History page to see exactly who has had success in the past at the RBC Heritage.

Also check out our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing page, which identified Kevin Na and Charley Hoffman as great values last week at The Masters.

We promise that we will continue to out-work everybody in the industry to make our members successful and profitable in season long and daily fantasy golf. We watch our competition closely and feel as though we have THE BEST product available anywhere to help our members stay successful and profitable playing fantasy golf. As always, stick to solid lineup building, diversification, smart game selection, and disciplined bankroll management. See: How to win playing daily fantasy golf.

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This week we are recommending a balance approach in DFS. We love Spieth and have recommended him most every week this season. This week however will be the ultimate test for him, coming off the tournament of his life. Other studs do not thrill us this week and see a lot more value in the upper-middle tier.

 

Top Stud Picks:

 

Jordan Spieth- Typically we fade players coming off a tour win, see the Dangers of Recency Bias written by our own Zach Turcotte. However, we have strayed from this strategy with Spieth and we are glad that we have. He is a different type of player than most, but he will prove that he is not human if he shows up at Harbour Town and plays well. With all of the media appearances, interviews, etc, we find it hard to believe that he will be able to bounce back from his historical win and perform great this week. For that reason, we are not going to go all-in on Spieth like we have the last couple of months. He has performed great in his two appearances here with a 12th last year and a 9th in 2013. His current form is the best in the world and his Strokes Gained stats are off the charts as we talked about above. It is simply the fact that his life has been a world-wind this week and we are scared that he might come out flat. After this week we will be all in on him again going forward, but our expectations are a bit tempered this week. (GPP only and cautiously)

Patrick Reed- The reason we like Reed is the fact that he is the best golfer in the field outside of Spieth, and as described above we are weary of Spieth this week. Over the past two months Reed has been consistent, with a T22 at The Masters, T17 at Shell, 2nd at Valspar, T23 at WGC Cadillac, and T7 at Honda. He ranks 16th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 8th in Total Strokes Gained, and 84th in Greens in Regulation. He has played here twice and had a 48th last year and 71st in 2013. Matt Kuchar has a good tournament history here, but he also did at The Masters and we saw what happened to him there. The fact is, he and Jim Furyk are playing really poorly right now and tough to justify picking in any format. Thus the Stud category this week is really not very appealing, and a major reason we like a balanced approach. If you are going to use a stud we think the best player is Reed. (GPP)

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Daniel Summerhays- He has the look of somebody who is going to breakout with a win one of these weeks and with a bit of a weaker field, this week might be the one. He has been playing really well lately with a T4 in his last appearance at Valero, T55 at Arnold Palmer, T10 at Valspar, T17 at Honda, and T30 at Northern Trust. His tournament history is not good here, but we are going to overlook that because he is playing so well lately. We get questions about this all the time from people, “What should we favor, tournament history or current form?” The answer is obviously both, but golf is a game that involves many peaks and valleys in player’s seasons and careers. That is why you often see players have runs of several outstanding tournaments and then hit a wall and look like they have never played golf before. One example from this season is Robert Streb, who looked like a world beater this fall and dominated the PGA Tour, even winning an event. Then suddenly in the matter of a few months, he looks lost and his game is nowhere near the same as it was before. This needs to be factored into your decision whether to pick a player. If a player has played well in a tournament in the past but their swing is messed up or their confidence is shot lately, that needs to over-ride tournament history. The opposite is true as well, if a player has not played well in the past, but lately he has found something in his game, allowing him to excel and he is in the zone, we need to factor that into our decision. Is there anybody else in this tournament that has amazing tournament history and terrible current form in the field this week? We will let you look at our Tournament History Page and Who’s Hot Rankings to find out. Here is your hint: He was once ranked #1 in the world. Let’s get back to Summerhays, he ranks 65th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 12th in Strokes Gained Putting, 25th in Total Strokes Gained, 73rd in Greens in Regulation, and 39th in Greens in Regulation other than the fairway. He is playing really well and we want to capitalize on his momentum (GPP & Cash Games)

Jason Kokrak- Before the Shell Houston Open, where Kokrak missed the cut, he had been trending extremely well with a T11 at Valero, T6 at Arnold Palmer, and T7 at Valspar. He looked good last year in this tournament as he finished in 12th. Before that he had a 71st and a missed cut. On the PGA Tour he ranks 10th in driving distance, 45th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 34th in Total Strokes Gained, 72nd in Greens in Regulation, and 12th in Greens in Regulation Percentage other than the Fairway. We like this combination of long driving distance and the ability to get to the green when not on the fairway here at Harbour Town. If you are going for a balanced lineup, and this week is a great one to do so, Kokrak would be a solid addition. (GPP and Cash Games)

Brendon de Jonge– We recommended de Jonge as a sleeper pick at the Shell Houston Open and he delivered a T5. Last year at Harbour Town was his only hiccup as he missed the cut, but before then he had a 9th in 2013, 29th in 2012, 21st in 2011, and 35th in 2010. Before his 5th at Shell he had a MC at Valero, T33 at Valspar, T10 at Puerto Rico, and T25 at Honda. He checks out in all the statistics we are looking at this week as he ranks 50th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 46th in Total Strokes Gained, 37th in Greens in Regulation, 22nd in Greens in Regulation other than the Fairway, and 29th in Driving Accuracy. We look for De Jonge to put up a solid Top 25 with a chance to crack the Top 10. (GPP and Cash Game)

Charles Howell III– Normally just a cut maker, Howell has been delivering high-end finishes as of late with a T5 at Shell, T21 at Arnold Palmer, and T10 at Valspar. He did miss a rare cut at Valero a few weeks ago. He ranks as a good value in our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool this week. In the RBC Howell placed 53rd last year, MC in 2013, 29th in 2012, MC in 2011, and 22nd in 2010. We like how he ranks in the key statistical categories this week- 29th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 30th in Greens in Regulation, and 7th in Greens in Regulation Percentage Other than the Fairway. The only stat we do not like is his driving accuracy, as he ranks 201st, but his ability to get to the green from off the fairway will make up for that this week. (GPP and Cash Game)

Kevin Streelman– Harbour Town Links Course is a good fit for Streelman’s game. Add to that he is trending in the right direction, and he makes for a good play this week. Last week Streelman was very impressive at The Masters with a T12 and the week before he has a T42 at Shell, and the week before that a T67 at Arnold Palmer. He has had some success at the RBC Heritage in the past with a 53rd last year, 3rd in 2013, 17th in 2012, and 36th in 2011. His stats look great for here as he ranks 18th in Driving accuracy, 17th in Greens in Regulation, 47th in Greens in Regulation Percentage other than the fairway, and 55th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. If he can build upon his showing at the Masters he will surprise some people and easily outperform his price in DFS. (GPP and Cash games)

Russell Knox– Before Valero, where Know missed the cut, he had a nice stretch of tournaments with a T29 at Arnold Palmer, T33 at Valspar, and T3 at Honda. He also had a 3rd at the Shriners in the fall, so he has the ability to make a run. His only appearance at this tournament was last year and he took 9th. Knox currently ranks 22nd in Greens in Regulation, 52nd in driving accuracy, 60th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 39 in Total Strokes Gained. (GPP only-because of his potential to miss the cut as he has missed 4 out of 13 events so far this season)

 

Top Sleepers:

 

Rory Sabatini- No, we are not nuts, to answer your question. Well actually maybe we are, but check out some information on “the other Rory” Tournament history- 9th in 2014, 9th in 2013, 17th in 2012, DNP in 2011, 14th in 2010, and 8th in 2009. It is not a coincidence that this guy does well on this course as he ranks 20th in Greens in Regulation, 23rd in Greens in Regualtion Percenage from other than the fairway, 37th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 55th in total Strokes Gained, and 71st in Driving accuracy. He does not play real well on the long courses, as he has demonstrated consistently . On short courses and particularly Harbour Town he usually plays well. His current form is not good but he has played some long courses most recently. This will help us as people will see how he has done lately and run away. We are not saying to load up on him in DFS, but mixing him into a lineup or two will give you a guy who can outperform his price-tag and give you someone who will have low ownership. (GPP only)

Stewart Cink– The only other time we have recommended Cink this year, he came through for us with a T50 at the Shell Houston Open. That may not sound outstanding but he was one of the cheapest priced players in DFS that week and he is cheaply priced this week as well. Outside of Shell his performances have been up and down this year with a MC at Arnold Palmer, T60 at Valspar, T31 at Honda, and MC at Farmers. Cink likes this tournament and the Harbour Town Course as he has won this tournament twice. The last five years here he has a 61st, 24th, MC, 30th, an 14th. He ranks #1 on the PGA Tour in Greens in Regulation, and 3rd in Greens in Regulation Percentage from other than the Fairway. He is a very solid sleeper play this week. (GPP only)

Nicholas Thompson– The fact that he has missed the cut in the last two events he has played in both worries us, but also provides us an opportunity. Before those two missed cuts he had a couple of good appearances with a T35 at Arnold Palmer and T17 at Valspar. Thompson played very well last year and ended up with a 12th place finish and in 2013 he had a 48th. He ranks 33rd in Driving Accuracy, 57th in Greens in Regulation, and 9th in Greens in Regulation other than the fairway. He ranks about average in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green at 125th. In DFS, he is one of the lowest priced players this week and you can bet not many people will own him. Obviously not a guy you want to build your cash games around, but if you want to stack Spieth and Reed, he might be a guy to round out your roster. (GPP only)

 

Best of luck to all of you this weekend and we look forward to hearing about your continued success!
-Fantasy Golf Insider