Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- RBC Canadian Open

OVERVIEW

Last year we saw Jason Day silence the demons from leaving a putt short to miss the playoff at The Open Championship the previous week and beat Bubba Watson by one stroke (which came down to a putt that he couldn’t leave short if he wanted to win sans playoff). The RBC Canadian Open field isn’t the strongest after you get past all of the players that are sponsored by RBC – Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker, Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer, Ernie Els, Graeme McDowell, David Hearn, and Nick Taylor are all here to make RBC proud. Hearn & Taylor both hail from Canada, so they may have some extra motivation this week not only because they’re playing in their home country’s Open, but because they’ll probably have more friends and family on hand for the event. Last year Glen Abbey’s putting surfaces were a combination of poa & bent grass. Not a blend, but ten greens were poa annua turf and eight were bent grass. According to the superintendent the ten poa greens were to be ripped up last September and replaced with bent grass, so if you’re the type of DFS player who targets specific turf grass specialists, you’ll want to only look at bent grass specialists this week.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Glen Abbey Golf Club
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,273
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Oakville, Ontario
• Expected scoring: The course lends itself prey to birdies and better so we should expect some really low numbers this week, and if the winner isn’t 18 under par or better I’d be shocked.  
• Past Champions (dating back to 2006):
• 2015: Jason Day -17 over Bubba Watson
• 2014: Tim Clark -17 over Jim Furyk
• 2013: Brandt Snedeker -16 over Jason Bohn, Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar, William McGirt
• 2012: Scott Piercy -17 over Robert Garrigus & William McGirt
• 2011: Sean O’ Hair -4 playoff over Kris Blanks
• 2010: Carl Pettersson -14 over Dean Wilson
• 2009: Nathan Green -18 in a playoff over Retief Goosen
• 2008: Chez Reavie -17 over Billy Mayfair
• 2007: Jim Furyk -16 over Vijay Singh
• 2006: Jim Furyk -14 over Bart Bryant

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KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, Birdie or Better %, Scrambling
• Important – SG:Putting, Greens in Regulation, Rough Proximity, Proximity to Hole

 

STARS:

Dustin Johnson (DK $12,500)

• Course History: 2^nd(2013) – WD (2008)
• Form: 9^th – WIN – WIN – 5^th – 3^rd – 12^th – 28^th
• Stats: 2^nd – SG:OTT, 11^th – SG:APP, 2^nd – SG:T2G, 39^th – SG:P, 2^nd – DD, 26^th – GIR, 2^nd – Birdie Avg, 1^st – Scoring Avg, 39^th – TD, 103^rd – TDE, 2^nd – Prox, 2^nd – Rough Prox, 2^nd – Par Breakers, 2^nd – P3 Scoring, 1^st – P4 Scoring, 22^nd – P5 Scoring, 18^th – P3 BoB, 1^st – P4 BoB, 19^th – P5 BoB
• Other – Not much to say here, he’s been featured every week possible due to becoming a Top 10 machine this year – ICYMI he’s at a Tour leading 11 Top 10’s in 16 events now. Even when he starts slow, he still makes gradual moves up the leaderboard and even back doored a win at Firestone. Dude is playing on a completely different level this year and provides immense upside in scoring for DraftKings purposes.

 Jason Day (DK $12,300)

• Course History: WIN – 52^nd (2009) – 48^th
• Form: 22^nd – 3^rd – 8^th – 27^th – WIN – 5th
• Stats: 48^th – SG:OTT, 57^th – SG:APP, 16^th – SG:ARG, 18^th – SG:T2G, 1^st – SG:P, 19^th – DD, 82^nd – GIR, 6^th – Birdie Avg, 3^rd – Scoring Avg, 108^th – TD, 25^th – TDE, 5^th – Par Breakers, 42^nd – P3 Scoring, 5^th – P4 Scoring, 2^nd – P5 Scoring, 9^th – P4 BoB, 5^th – P5 BoB
• Other – His stats indicate his play is slipping a bit, but I still think you can look past that this week and play him with confidence due to how great of a putter he has been this year. He is still pretty deadly from tee to green, so if he starts hitting more greens in regulation it could be what he needs to run away with this tournament. If I had to decide between the defending champion and the hottest golfer on the planet (Dustin Johnson), I’d play DJ and hope I don’t get burned. If I’m making two lineups, I’d start one with Day and one with DJ. Fading them in cash is obvious with the lack of talent at the bottom, but I really think one of the top 6 priced players win this week and you know someone will donk up a lineup with one or both of them in it.

Jim Furyk (DK $9,900)

• Course History: 4^th – 9^th – 14th
• Form: 59^th – 42^nd – 21^st – 2^nd – 52^nd – MC – 35^th – MC
• Stats: N/A – Not enough starts to qualify
• Other – Birdman seems to be back and when his form is on and his course history matches up you don’t want to fade him. Do I think he has the fire power to go birdie for birdie with Day & Johnson? No, but if one of them are slow out of the gates, you have to think Furyk & Kuchar will be waiting to show these “young punks” how they used to do it in the early 2000’s.

ALSO CONSIDER – Matt Kuchar (DK $10,600 ) – Kuchar’s a horse for this tournament in general, but his history at Glen Abbey will make him a popular play – 7^th last year, 2^nd in 2013.As an ambassador for Team RBC, Kuchar typically represents well in all RBC events and should get back to his old Top 10 ways this week. Brandt Snedeker (DK $10,300) – He hasn’t played well here since his win in 2013, but now seems like a good time to take a semi-flier on Sneds. We all know he putts better on poa greens and even though he’s not known as a strong links player, he played fairly well last week at the Open which is always encouraging when taking a shot on a former winner. 

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,300)  

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 76^th – 16^th – 49^th – MC – 10^th – MC – MC
• Stats: 29^th – SG: OTT, 94^th – SG:T2G, 31^st – SG:P, 117^th – DD, 32^nd – DA, 116^th – GIR, 33^rd – Birdie Avg, 42^nd – Scoring Avg, 34^th – TD, 44^th – TDE, 50^th – Prox, 30^th – Par Breakers, 99^th – P3 Scoring, 43^rd – P4 Scoring, 76^th – P5 Scoring, 98^th – P3 BoB, 7^th – P4 BoB, 78^th – P5 BoB
• Other – Kisner has had a tale of two seasons this year where he started with six straight cuts made including a 2^nd place finish the week before his win at the RSM Classic. He broke his driver at the Honda Classic and has been searching for comfort ever since. Fast forward through a bunch of missed cuts and Kis is now on the back nine of this season following his T10 at the Dean & Deluca. He played fairly well in Scotland, but my focus is more on his play prior to last week where he was trending upwards.

 Nick Taylor (DK $7,200)

• Tournament History: 56^th – MC – 53rd
• Form: MC – 32^nd – 12^th – 47^th – MC – MC – 36^th
• Stats: 62^nd – SG:OTT, 92^nd – SG:APP, 83^rd – SG:T2G, 47^th – DD, 85^th – GIR, 101^st – Birdie Avg, 122^nd – Scoring Avg, 64^th – TD, 15^th – TDE, 73^rd – Prox, 39^th – Rough Prox, 79^th – P3 Scoring, 17^th – P4 Scoring, 119^th – P5 Scoring, 40^th – P3 BoB, 64^th – P4 BoB, 165^th – P5 BoB
• Other – Taylor’s missed cut last week will reduce his assumed low ownership should be even lower this week. I’m not considering him for cash games unless I absolutely have to, but I think he makes for a very nice GPP play with reasonable upside.

 Colt Knost (DK $7,100)

• Course History: 48^th – MC – MC
• Form: MC – 3^rd – 18^th – 67^th – 4^th – 3^rd – 41^st
• Stats: 120^th – SG:OTT, 42^nd – SG:APP, 108^th – SG:ARG, 71^st – SG:T2G, 30^th – SG:P, 196^th – DD, 1^st – DA (73.96%), 68^th – GIR, 126^th – Birdie Avg, 38^th – Scoring Avg, 104^th – TD, 170^th – TDE, 15^th – Prox, 23^rd – Rough Prox, 125^th – Par Breakers, 79^th – P3 Scoring, 43^rd – P4 Scoring, 50^th – P5 Scoring, 83^rd – P3 BoB, 131^st – P4 BoB, 117^th – P5 BoB
• Other – I’m not sure if Knost will be a popular play this week, but for cash games I think he should be a core play. His Top 5 upside also makes him an intriguing play for GPP’s especially after a missed cut at the Open Championship. Like a few others in this article, I’m not putting too much stock in his play there as he was the first alternate to get in, and was playing in his first Open. Aside from the weather, it seems like there may have been a few obstacles to overcome last week and I’m glad he had some extra time to get to the course and unwind prior to this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Chris Kirk (DK $8,200) – Kirk has been tough to peg this year. He’s a form player (meaning when he makes a few cuts, he typically does well for the next few events and when he misses a cut it seems to derail him for just as many). Regardless, Kirk used the Quicken Loans as a springboard to start his good form by finishing T12, and parlayed that into a T21 at the WGC as well as playing pretty well at the Open. I think he continues his good run again this week, but I’m not sure if he’s got Top 5 or Top 25 upside. Bryce Molder (DK $8,100) – If you’re scared off by missed cuts, I don’t suggest playing Agent Molder this week. If you’re not, fire him up. Molder’s having one of his best years on Tour with seven Top 25’s including five Top 10’s and is 12/20 in cuts made (most of his missed cuts were early on in the year). William McGirt (DK $7,700) – McGirt’s missed cut at the Open should be thrown out the window as it was his first time and the course didn’t really play to his strengths. Instead of fading him based on an outlier missed cut, I’m strongly suggesting him for GPP’s this week. His course history (34^th – 2^nd) and current form (aside from the Open – 7^th – MC – WIN – 47^th – 43^rd – 17^th) indicates a consistent player with good upside to build around your cash teams as well.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 Dan McCarthy (DK $7,200)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: (All Mackenzie Tour) WIN – T8 – WIN – T6 – WIN
• Stats: Ranks 2^nd on the Mackenzie Tour in Eagles per hole, 4.80 – Birdie Avg, 66.75 – Scoring Avg
• Other – So, this dude either wins or Top 10’s on the Mackenzie Tour (aka Canadian Tour). Admittedly, I had to look him up when I saw his current form, but anyone who wins at any professional level is worth a play especially at this price (I’d much rather get burned by NOT rostering Hunter Mahan, than get burned by this guy). I won’t be plugging him in any cash lineups this week, but he will see about 10% of my GPP lineups. (Unrelated note: I’m baffled by the 1^st place money he’s won on the Mackenzie Tour. Each win has netted him $31,500, his Top 10’s have been less than $10,000). Something tells me his story might be told this weekend if he makes a move at some point (“here’s a guy who’s made $31,500 as a winner on the Mackenzie Tour, and will be collecting more than that placing in the Top 25” is something I can imagine hearing this week).

Chad Campbell (DK $6,800)

• Course History: 11^th – 16^th – 26^th  
• Form: 35^th – 34^th – 10^th – 12^th – 39^th – MC
• Stats: 76^th – SG:OTT, 54^th – SG:APP, 27^th – SG:ARG, 30^th – SG:T2G, 153^rd – SG:P, 130^th – DD, 37^th – DA, 39^th – GIR, 77^th – Birdie Avg, 43^rd – Scoring Avg, 51^st – TD, 84^th – Prox, 30^th – Scrambling, 84^th – Par Breakers, 9^th – P3 Scoring, 68^th – P4 Scoring, 22^nd – P5 Scoring, 65^th – P3 BoB, 161^st – P4 BoB, 20^th – P5 BoB
• Other – Chad’s play of late has actually been pretty good and his play at Glen Abbey has been pretty phenomenal considering the grinder type of player he’s become. His name will probably be mentioned on podcasts and in other articles this week due to his history, so fading in GPP’s might be the right play. Either way, I like him this week.

 Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $6,800) 

• Course History: N/A
• Form: MC – MC – MC – 54^th – WIN – 47^th – MC – MC
• Stats: (Euro Tour) 72.00 – Scoring Avg, 62.5% – DA, 278.08 – DD, 73.89 – GIR, 30.73 – Putts/Rd
• Other – His scoring average on the Euro Tour would rank him outside the Top 125 on the PGA Tour, but somehow he’s a popular play every week he tees it up and this week will be no different. Fitz has been struggling a bit as his current form indicates, but aside from his missed cut at the Open he hasn’t been missing cuts by much on the Euro Tour. Fitz’s strength is his accuracy off the tee and as long as he continues to give himself opportunities to hit approach shots from the fairway instead of the rough he’ll be playing the weekend. I’m looking for Fitz to get back to making the cut this week and finish inside the Top 25.

 ALSO CONSIDER – Mark Wilson (DK $7,300) – Nothing too flashy with this play. Wilson is a bit of a journeyman who seems to eek by on Fridays and occasionally makes for a play with Top 30 upside. He’s listed here as a cut maker whose only missed cuts in events that may have been above his head (WF, Players, Honda) but has shown up on ball striker courses as well as weak field events this year (Barracuda – T13, Byron Nelson – T24, Valero – T25). Tim Wilkinson (DK $7,000) – Tim’s been slippin’ a bit since his run back in June as far as consistency is concerned, but he still presents the upside of a Top 30 finisher as long as he makes the cut and when we’re dumpster diving we’re not always going to get a guy who makes six straight cuts. Michael Kim (DK $6,900) – Mike might be the new era Wilkinson with four straight cuts made and even seeing some finishes inside the Top 20. I wouldn’t be opposed to using him in cash if you’re starting your lineups with Kuchar and/or Furyk, but I really liked what I saw last week and think he’d be a great low end anchor option to your GPP teams this week. Steve Wheatcroft (DK $6,100) – Wheatie has had his ups and downs this year, but recently he’s back on his way up with a Top 25 at the Barbasol, 5^th at the Barracuda and a T41 at St. Jude. I’m not sure if I like him for anything other than cash at this point, but if I end up changing my mind I’ll tweet something during the week.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Tony Finau (DK $9,300)

• Course History: 22^nd
• Form: 18^th – 74^th – MC – 11^th – 34^th – 12^th – MC – 28^th
• Stats: 30^th – SG:OTT, 134^th – SG:APP, 140^th – SG:ARG, 80^th – SG:T2G, 113^th – SG:P, 3^rd – DD, 105^th – GIR, 66^th – Birdie Avg, 48^th – Scoring Avg, 79^th – TD, 167^th – TDE, 150^th – Prox, 64^th – Rough Prox, 64^th – Par Breakers, 162^nd – P3 Scoring, 43^rd – P4 Scoring, 17^th – P5 Scoring, 160^th – P3 BoB, 133^rd – P4 BoB, 10^th – P5 BoB
• Other – Finau finished well here last year and has upped his game this year. His length off the tee definitely plays to his advantage on this course and if he keeps the momentum going from the Open I think he’s got a good shot at contending come Sunday. The only issue here could be fatigue, but you could pretty much say that for any of these guys who continue to tee it up week after week.

Roberto Castro (DK $8,400)

• Course History: 48^th – 6^th
• Form: 11^th – 62^nd – 11^th – 65^th – 2^nd – 48^th
• Stats: 63^rd – SG:OTT, 35^th – SG:APP, 42^nd – SG:ARG, 22^nd – SG:T2G, 160^th – DD, 10^th – DA, 13^th – GIR, 33^rd – Birdie Avg, 54^th – Scoring Avg, 52^nd – Prox, 64^th – Rough Prox, 38^th – Par Breakers, 11^th – P3 Scoring Avg, 2^nd – P4 Scoring Avg, 38^th – P5 Scoring Avg, 141^st – P3 BoB, 39^th – P4 BoB, 51^st – P5 BoB
• Other – Castro’s game has been sharp this year and given the quality of this field you’re going to need to find some hidden gems in order to separate yourselves from others. Castro is solid from tee to green (he led the field in SG:T2G last week at the Barbasol) and does so by being accurate with his irons and eliminating mistakes. He’s above average in most of the Strokes Gained categories as well as his Par 4 and Par 5 scoring average. This come as no surprise when you look at his greens in regulation ranking/percentage and his putting stats. Castro could be a difference maker for your teams this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Danny Lee (DK $9,100) – Danny’s been as consistent at making the cut this year as anyone and up until last week’s miss at Troon, he was 12/13 in cuts made, and his T3 at the Scottish Open was his best in that stretch. I’m not expecting him to bounce all the way back after his MC, but now’s a great time to get Danny at what should be fairly low ownership. Kevin Streelman (DK $8,200) – Streels has reeled off three straight Top 13’s and while his finish at the US Open was his worst in that stretch, it was the most impressive because of the strength of the field and difficulty of the course. Streelman should be able to continue his solid play this week in a much weaker field and should continue to rack up the birdies. Jimmy Walker (DK $7,700) – I’m not sure if Jimmy Walker is still a household name around DFS circles anymore, but if not now might be a good time to throw his dart. His game has been off on courses where he usually plays well this year, but he seemed to get something back at Firestone, which is more than enough reason for me to consider him for GPPs this week. Jim Herman (DK $6,600) – Herminator will only be considered as a GPP play this week due to the weak nature of this field, and what I anticipate to be low ownership. I can’t say that he “popped” for me, but I think he’s playing well enough to be considered this week and has shown that he’s capable of a Top 30 when he’s playing well (and obviously he has shown he can win a tournament as well).

Additional Notes:

Canadian chalk plays this week include: Adam Hadwin (DK $8,700), David Hearn (DK $7,900), Graham DeLaet (DK $7,500). “If I’m fading one of these guys it’s going to be DeLaet due to how much pressure he seems to put on himself at this event every year. I really like Hearn & Hadwin, but didn’t want to write them up as I assume they’ll both have high ownership and wanted to touch on some other players.” Is what I wrote before pricing came out. Seeing Hadwin at $8,700 makes me think his ownership will be dramatically lower than anticipated because of the stigma most DFS players have about paying a specific amount for “this type of player”. Fire up Hadwin in GPPs only, Hearn and DeLaet are fine for cash plays this week. I still like Hearn more than DeLaet though.

Bryson Dechambeau (DK $8,100) makes for a good play this week, but I didn’t know where I should place him as gauging his ownership was a bit difficult since it’s been awhile since we’ve seen him and the buzz has died down. Statistically I think his game fits the course and he should have ample opportunities to drain birdies.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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