Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- RBC Canadian Open

What an amazing Open Championship, we hope you enjoyed an incredible tournament, culminating with a three man playoff and Zach Johnson coming away with the Claret Jug. Not too many majors have 10 guys who have a legitimate shot at winning it in the last hour of play, but this year did. On a side note, if you have been with FGI for a while, you know our affinity for one, Jordan Spieth. Not only do we like the fact that he is a dominant player and is one of the most clutch athletes in the world, but he is a class act off the course. When he stuck around to watch the completion of The Open Championship, we were blown away. Most guys hopped on their planes as soon as they stepped off the 18th green. Despite losing in heartbreaking fashion and a chance at history, Spieth stuck around because he appreciates the game of golf, the history of The Open, and the success of his peers. We will continue to root him on toward becoming one of the greatest players of all-time and hope that he always keeps his head on his shoulders as he has up to this point.

We have to be honest with you and tell you we are absolutely exhausted. Between the countless hours of research prior to The Open, waking up at 3:00 am each of the past five mornings to watch coverage, and now prepping for this week, it is hard to keep our heads up. The only thing that gives us the strength to keep going is hearing from so many FGI members who had an excellent, profitable week. Our email has been flooded with success stories from both season long leagues and daily fantasy contests with both GPP scores and cash game dominance. We were personally fortunate enough to win another ticket into the Draftkings live event taking place over labor-day weekend at The Deutsche Bank Championship with a $600,000 prize pool. It is our pleasure to report our picks were terrific with 13 out of 17 picks making the cut with an incredible 7 guys in the Top 20. Keep in mind that included seven sleeper picks, not just the chalk. If Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, and Kevin Kisner could have saved one stroke and made the cut, we would have absolutely won everything on the planet (they were all +1 and the cut was E). As it was, we did incredibly well and were propelled by Jordan Spieth T4, Brooks Koepka T10, Adam Scott T10, Martin Kaymer T12, sleeper pick Robert Streb T18, Hideki Matsuyama T18, and Brandon Grace T20. It is always hard going from a major to the following week’s tournament, which seems to be a letdown, but Draftkings already announced the fourth millionaire maker tournament for the PGA Championship in three weeks, which will be the biggest yet.  We are excited because Team FGI will be out at Whistling Straights for the PGA Championship and if you are planning on it as well let us know, we will buy you a beer.

This week our focus turns to Oakville, Ontario Canada and Glen Abbey Golf Course for the RBC Canadian Open. Glen Abbey was designed by Jack Nicklaus and has hosted The Canadian Open 26 times with the first being in 1977. It is a par 72 course and measures 7,273 yards long. One main feature of the Glen Abbey course are the “Valley Holes”, (holes 11 through 15). On number 11, a par 4, players tee off a cliff to a fairway that is approximately 60 feet below on the valley floor. The second shot must clear Sixteen Mile Creek to the green. Holes 12, 13 and 14 all use Sixteen Mile Creek as a hazard of one form or another. Number 15 is a short par 3 with a sharply-sloping green, after which players climb out of the valley to the 16th hole.

With The Canadian Open coming directly after The Open Championship, you can imagine not many of the top players in the world will be in attendance. The one saving grace for The Canadian Open is its sponsor, RBC brings its players who are highly encouraged if not contractually obligated to show up including Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk, Luke Donald, Hunter Mahan, Ernie Els, , and Graeme Mcdowell. Brandt Snedeker is one of those guys but he already withdrew. This helps at least bring some name value to a pretty soft field. Overall five of the Top 15 players in the world are in the field as of now and 27 players who played in The Open Championship, including those RBC guys. One concern that we have is that those players will be exhausted from The Open and their effort will be lacking for this event. We wanted to see if this might be a trend over the past several years, and to our surprise it has not been the case, at least over the past three years. Last year 5 out of 7 RBC guys who played in The Open the week before placed in the Top 25 including Kuchar (4th) and Furyk (2nd). In 2013 4 of the 7 placed in the Top 25, including Kuchar (2nd) and Snedeker (1st). In 2012, only five of them played and none of them were in the Top 25. So our conclusion is that, we are not totally discouraged by the “hangover” and it will not dissuade us from recommending those players strictly based upon that fact that they played in The Open Championship.

Last year at The Canadian Open Tim Clark birdied five of his last eight holes and won by one stroke at Royal Montreal. Clark’s 5-under-par 65 was enough to overcome a three-shot gap to start the day. A birdie at the par-4 11th started his run, moving in front with a birdie at No.16 following a short rain delay. Another birdie followed at No.17, and Jim Furyk could only match Clark’s par at No.18 in his hopes to force a playoff. Clark won for only the second time on tour with his last being THE PLAYERS in 2010.

Before we dive more into the RBC Canadian, we want to make sure you are aware of the opportunity available on FantasyAces right now. They have a scoring system that is slightly different than Draftkings, in that they do not reward players for placing (outside of 1st place) so it is simply based on individual hole results (birdies and eagles). That scoring system requires a much different strategy and one that we do not think many players on FantasyAces are aware of or have adapted to since they just started offering contests a month ago. Since the U.S Open we have personally had 4 straight winning weeks on FantasyAces (mostly cash games) and some of that success is probably attributed to the fact that we are building rosters based upon their unique scoring system, not just in general. We would recommend you check it out and use it as a bankroll building tool. They don’t have very large contests as of yet, since they are new, but it is ripe for the picking. If you sign up through this link: SIGN UP FOR FANTASY ACES
Use the Promo Code: INSIDER, you will get a 20% first time bonus (up to $250). If you do it through this link or the banner on our front page we get credit for you signing up and can keep making FGI better. If you haven’t already checked out our weekly preview dedicated strictly to FantasyAces contests, written by FGI’s Roger Casey, check it out, it will help you build winning lineups. If you have specific questions, feel free to shoot us an email, if you don’t already know we are very good about getting back to everybody.

Every week we use tournament history as an important variable to analyze, but the Canadian Open rotates locations every year, so we need to focus on years in which it has been played at Glen Abbey. The most recent years include 2013, 2009, and 2008 so be sure to focus on those years. Check out our Tournament History Page for records for every golfer who has played in this event and we have highlighted those three years where Glen Abbey was host.

Also keep in mind that scoring usually goes low at Canadian Open events, (-17 in 2014, -16 in 2013, -17 in 2012, -4 in 2011, -14 in 2010, -18 in 2009, and -17 in 2008), so choosing those players that can go low as opposed to plodding along and hovering around par. The statistics that we will be favoring this week include strokes gained tee-to-green, greens in regulation, and approach shot proximity to the hole. Historically at Glen Abbey these are the statistical areas in which those who succeeded did well in. In 2013 Brandt Snedeker was 9th in strokes gained putting and finished in 1st and Aaron Baddley was 1st in strokes gained putting and finished in 9th place, but most of the rest of the leaderboard was very mediocre in putting.

Also, be sure to check out our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, as it helps identify some outstanding values on daily fantasy sites when compared to how a consensus of sportsbooks rank them.

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, and more, become a premium member.

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Top Stud Picks:

 

Jason Day- Well he has not withdrawn from this event as of the writing of this preview, which frankly shocks us. Is there any way he can show up and be motivated after being so deflated after missing a chance on the 18th hole to make it into the playoff at The Open? We don’t know. What we do know, is he is easily one of the most talented players in this field and if we knew he was going to come into it motivated, we would pick him in every format across the board. He has six Top 10s in the 13 events that he has played this season including the T4 at The Open and T9 at The U.S Open. He ranks 3rd in driving distance, 23rd in greens in regulation, 31st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 41st in strokes gained putting, and 23rd in total strokes gained. Alright so we have established he is good, so what should we do with him? If he does not withdraw, there is no reason to not roster him in season long leagues. In DFS, it would be wise to avoid him in cash games because of his high salary and uncertainty about motivation. Feel free however to take a shot with him in a couple of your GPP lineups in case he shows up motivated, because he can certainly win this tournament. (GPP only)

Jim Furyk- We originally had Brandt Snedeker as one of our top stud picks, but then he decided to withdraw, which is always annoying after you do the research and then a write-up only to have to press delete. Anyway, Furyk moves up our list  mostly because of his consistency. So far this year Furyk has made 11 cuts in 13 events, with six Top 25s and four Top 10s including a win at RBC Heritage. He took T30 last week in Scotland and T42 at Chambers Bay. His history at the Canadian Open is very strong with a 2nd last year, 9th in 2013 (at Glen Abbey), and 14th in 14th in 2008 (at Glen Abbey). Per usual, his tee to green game is top notch ranking 9th in driving accuracy, 15th in greens in regulation, and 7th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 1st in proximity to the hole. His putting has been lacking overall this season, but for stints he putts outstanding and then is when he tends to get into the Top 10. He should be able to put at Glen Abbey as the greens are beatable. The only hesitation we have is the late trip over from St Andrews and whether he will respond. It has not been an issue in the past (although this year a day later) so we are not going to consider a problem. (GPP and Cash Games)

Matt Kuchar- Quite a bit of success in the Canadian Open in the past is the main reason we like Kuchar this week. A 4th place finish last year and in 2010, plus a runner-up finish in 2013 when it was at Glen Abbey. Kuchar has not had the type of great season that he had last year, as he only has three Top 10s in 17 events played as opposed to last year when he had 12 at this same point in the season. He finished a disappointing T58 last week at the Open Championship mainly due to a few blowup holes including a triple bogey in the second round, which almost cost him the cut. Kuchar ranks 134th in driving distance, 107th in driving accuracy, 107th in greens in regulation, 59th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 7th in strokes gained putting. Despite the lack in current form, Kuchar still remains among the best players in this weakened field this week so he cannot be ignored. Plus he tends to shine in RBC events (see RBC Heritage as well). (Mostly GPP because of price)

Brooks Koepka- An absolute monster, Koepka took T10 last week at The Open and looks to be one of the biggest talents in this field. The only concern is that he is tired from the trip over from Scotland, but since he is showing up, we have to think he is out to win it. He now has nine Top 25s, five Top 10s, a third place finish and a win in his 15 events played? Statistically he is outstanding ranking Stroke Gained Tee-To-Green (42nd), Total Driving (32nd), Greens in Regulation (30th), Scrambling (163rd), Par 4 Scoring (30th). Unless he shows up disinterested, he should be worth a Top 10. (GPP and Cash Games)

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Tony Finau- A week off after barely missing the cut at The John Deere will hopefully get Finau back on the torrid pace he had been on prior to that. That hot stretch includes a T13 at Greenbrier, T25 at Travelers, T14 at the US Open, T8 at the Memorial, and T10 at Byron Nelson. His talent puts him at the top of the field for this event and statistically he ranks 6th in driving distance, 184th in driving accuracy, 63rd in greens in regulation, 34th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 135th in strokes gained putting. This will be Finau’s first appearance at the Canadian Open and we expect a Top 20 out of him. (GPP and Cash Games)

Will Wilcox- After missing the cut two weeks in a row by one stroke and burning us with the Greenbrier and Travelers, Wilcox responded with a T8 at the John Deere Classic. As we always preach do not hold a grudge and make emotional decisions, so we stuck with Wilcox as one of our recommendations because he lined up well at TPC Deere run and his price in DFS was deflated. Last week Wilcox followed up that Top 10 with a runner-up finish at The Barbasol Championship. Statistically he lines up very well for Glen Abbey ranking 59th in driving distance, 22nd in driving accuracy, 7th in greens in regulation, 30th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 16th in proximity to the hole and 40th in strokes gained putting. Wilcox has not appeared at Glen Abbey, but had a 25th last year. He will no longer be under the radar with his runner-up finish, although maybe nobody noticed the Barbasol, but either way we like the way he is playing and like him in Canada. (GPP and Cash Games)

Kevin Chappell- Riding a consecutive made cut streak of seven, Chappell had a bit of a breakthrough with a T8 at John Deere. During that made cut streak he had four Top 25s, so he is playing really good golf. Chappell ranks 62nd in driving distance, 68th in driving accuracy, 102nd in greens in regulation, 118th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 37th in proximity to the hole, and 62nd in strokes gained putting. Chappell took 20th in this event last year and 68th when it was played at Glen Abbey in 2013. In a weak field and with some momentum coming in, we like Chappell to put up a nice finish. The only problem we can foresee is that his price is ridiculously cheap on Draftking at $7,300, which means he will probably be highly owned. In cash games who cares, load up on him, but GPPs you might want to roster him on some and intentionally fade him on others to avoid the masses. (GPP and cash games).

Chris Stroud- As the summer goes along, Stroud has begun to heat up a little bit. In his last four events, he has a T32 last week at Barbasol, T5 at John Deere, T37 at The Greenbrier, and T10 at Travelers. Statistically he doesn’t do anything really well ranking 67th in driving distance, 134th in greens in regulation, 101st in strokes gained tee-to-green, an 102nd in strokes gained putting. Stroud has a mediocre tournament history making the cut three times, but the two missed cuts being at Glen Abbey. We think his current form is going to be enough to propel him to a Top 20 finish this week.(GPP and Cash Games)

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Ollie Schniederjans- If you don’t know who this is, he is the kid who doesn’t wear a hat, and oh yeah he was also the one kicking ass at The Open Championship putting up a final round 67 en route to a T12. This has not been his only success this year as he also played well in the U.S Open taking T42. He graduated from Georgia Tech as a three time all American and now you will be seeing a lot more of him on the Tour. He is a talented kid who can race up leaderboards as we saw at The Open. He does not have any statistics on the PGA Tour yet and obviously no Canadian Open experience, we are simply going off the eye-test and we like what we see so far. (Mostly GPP)

Johnson Wagner- After missing five consecutive cuts, Wagner has had 12 consecutive sub 70 rounds producing a T10 at Barbasol last week, T5 at John Deere, and T32 at Greenbrier. He also has a runner-up finish at the Shell Houston Open this season. He had a 34th place finish in The Canadian Open last year after missing the cut the previous four appearances. Where he stands out statistically is 30th in proximity to the hole and 16th in greens in regulation. He also ranks 89th in driving distance, 93rd in driving accuracy,115th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 85th strokes gained putting. Another relatively low dollar guy in DFS that has a chance to get you big points if he continues on his hot streak. (Mostly GPP)

Andres Romero- This is a bit of a sneaky play, and one that we especially like on Draftkings because he is only $6,200. Romero has three Top 15 finishes in his past four appearances with a T10 at Barbasol last week, T6 at Greenbrier, mc at Travelers, and T14 at the U.S Open. He has also had a bit of success in the Canadian Open with a 20th last year, 21st in 2013(at Glen Abbey), and 3rd in 2011. Romero ranks 44th in driving distance, but is brutal in greens in regulation ranking 195th on Tour, although it has been better over the past month. He is a total GPP play for you DFS players, because there is a high probability he could miss the cut, but he has been playing better and he looks like one of the best options of all the scrubs. (GPP only)

Chez Reavie- He decided against playing in the Barbasol because he is down to seven starts on his medical extension and frankly the Barbasol didn’t have a ton of money up for grabs (PGA Tour wise- it would be enough for us). He has had three straight made cuts including a T65 at John Deere, T22 at Greenbrier, T25 at Travelers, and T12 at FedEx St Jude. Reavie has also had success in The Canadian Open and at Glen Abbey taking 31st in 2013 (Glen Abbey), 37th in 2012, 13th in 2011, and 1st in 2008 (Glen Abbey). Statistically we like how Reavie sets up Glen Abbey as he ranks 4th in driving accuracy, 25th in greens in regulation, 78th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 5th in proximity to the hole. On Draftkings he is only $6,300 which looks like a bargain. (GPP and Cash Games)

Chad Campbell- Rarely a name mentioned within our recommendations, Campbell has now made five consecutive cuts including a T48 last week at Barbasol, T28 at John Deere, T37 at Greenbrier, T25 at Travelers, and T8 at FedEx St Jude. He missed the cut at the Canadian Open last year and in 2012, but took 16th in 2013 here at Glen Abbey and 22nd in 2011. Statistically, Campbell excels in accuracy where he ranks 52nd in driving accuracy and 42nd in greens in regulation. He also is 150th in driving distance, 68th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 112th in strokes gained putting. We like the way he is playing and the fact that he has had some success in this tournament and on this course. (GPP and Cash Games).

William Mcgirt- This year it has been something of a crapshoot whether Mcgirt will make the cut week in and week out. He has made 17 cuts in 24 events, but alternated Top 40 and missed cut over the past five tournaments. That being said, he likes the Canadian Open having made the cut in all four of his appearances including a 2nd in 2013 at Glen Abbey and a 2nd in 2012. Mcgirt is not a long hitter, but he is accurate ranking 17th in driving accuracy, 65th in greens in regulation, 41st in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 100th in strokes gained putting. (GPP only due to inconsistency this season)

As always best of luck this week, and please continue to let us know how you do.

-Fantasy Golf Insider

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