Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Quicken Loans National

Wow what a difference a week makes as Jason Day redeemed himself by making the tournament winning putt at the RBC Canadian Open. Just one week ago he left his putt short on the 18th hole at St Andrews that would have put him in the playoff. This time he did not make the same mistake and drilled the winner to finish one stroke better than Bubba Watson. We had an absolutely phenomenal week with our recommendations last week. Our picks had a staggering 85% cut made percentage (11 out of 13 picks). Not only that, but many of them had high finishes as well. All of our stud picks finished in the Top 20 with our top pick Jason Day coming out the champion, Jim Furyk 4th, Matt Kuchar T7, and Brooks Koepka T18. The two guys who missed the cut for us were Kevin Chappell and Chris Stroud, who were both value picks with Chappell being the biggest surprise. We did mention a strategy might be to fade him in tournaments, because he would be so heavily owned and he did end up being highly owned so we hope you followed the advice on some of your teams. Tony Finau finished with a flourish on Sunday with a T22. Our sleeper picks were unbelievable going 6 for 6 in making the cut, which is incredibly difficult to do. Ollie Schniederjans finished T22, Andres Romero T34, Johnson Wagner T18, Chez Reavie T41, William Mcgirt T34, and the best of all Chad Campbell T11 (a tremendous finish for a guy who was priced at $6,200 on Draftkings). We have heard from a ton of our members who had huge weeks because of these guys and we want to offer our congratulations to all of you. Keep up the great work, we will continue to work our tails off to give you the best information in the industry.

This week the PGA Tour takes us to Gainesville, Virginia and the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club for the Quicken Loans National. This is one of only five tournaments given “invitational” status by the PGA Tour, which means it has a reduced field of only 120 players (as opposed to most full-field open tournaments with a field of 156 players). This is an important fact for you DFS players to note, since it will be easier for players to make the cut. Robert Trent Jones GC is a par 71 course that plays 7,385 yards. Another important thing to note is that this tournament has been held at Congressional Country Club the past three years (also 2007-2009) and Aronimink Golf Club 2010-2011 not Robert Trent Jones GC. Tournament history thus will need to be discounted dramatically if not completely. Robert Trent Jones Golf Club has not hosted any other PGA Tour events to compare, only the President’s Cup in 1994, 1996, 2000, and 2005, which we do not feel are even applicable. We have posted the Quicken Loans tournament history just to see who has played well in this tournament in the past, but please do not put too much weight on it since it has been on different courses.

Because we do not have exact course history and thus no comparable stats we need to be careful this week. Without all of this data, it will reduce our edge over the field and thus we should decrease the amount of our bankroll in play this week for you DFS players. Rather than having 15-20% of you bankroll in play, we would recommend you drop that to 8-10% because of the lack of information. We don’t want to give back our profits from last week when the information and recommendations were so strong.

The statistics we will look at this week will be strokes gained tee-to-green, which is the most indicative of success as shown in our articles, “Do statistics really matter in Fantasy Golf”, which if you have not read, you absolutely need to. In addition to strokes gained tee-to-green, we will analyze greens in regulation, par 4 scoring, and strokes gained putting.

Last week we told you about the excellent opportunity that has presented itself on FantasyAces right now as they are relatively new to DFS golf. Well we had another winning week there and our own Roger Casey was out of his mind with his picks last week in his article dedicated to the game on FantasyAces as it has a scoring system and thus a slightly different strategy. We would recommend you check it out, because there is money to be won there and be sure to check out Roger’s article which usually comes out Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. They don’t have very large contests as of yet, since they are new, but it is ripe for the picking. If you sign up through this link: SIGN UP FOR FANTASY ACES
Use the Promo Code: INSIDER, you will get an outstanding 20% first time bonus (up to $250). If you do it through this link or the banner on our front page we get credit for you signing up and can keep making FGI better. If you have specific questions, feel free to shoot us an email, or hit us up on Twitter @Fantasygolfers.

Below in our premium members section, we discuss in-depth an imperative part of DFS Golf, SCORING. We have some really great findings that will help you with your research and results. If you are not currently a member, this information alone will help pay for your membership 10 times over in profitability. For our current members, you know that we are always providing key advice and strategy to keep you ahead of everybody else in order to make money. Be sure to read it.

Week after week our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, has proven to be extremely valuable by identifying players who’s price is lower than the sportsbook odds reflect, thus helping us find value. Last week it helped identify Andres Romero, Chez Reavie, and Chad Campbell to name a few

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, and more, become a premium member.

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Before we get to our recommendations, we wanted to address something for you DFS players that we have discussed before, but felt it was so important that we would do it again. It is involving sites that put significant importance on individual hole scoring, specifically Draftkings and FantasyAces. As you know, Draftkings scoring is highly waited toward individual hole scoring as opposed to where guys finish in the standings (outside of the Top 5 places). Eagles are worth 8 points and birdies are worth 3 points (whereas bogies are only -.5 and doubles only -1). Fantasy Aces scores 5 points for eagles and 3 points for birdies. So players that tend to birdie and bogie a lot of holes are highly rewarded and accumulate points as opposed to players that tend to be more consistent and have more pars on holes. We will refer to players that generally produce birdie/bogey results as opposed to guys who generally produce par/par results as more volatile scorers.. We hear from a lot of people who focus so much on where guys finish, “so and so finished T33 or T26”, but what they should really be focusing on is how many points they accumulated during the tournament, since that is what dictates how you finish in contests. We pulled some examples from this past week’s tournament, the RBC Canadian Open and Draftkings scoring to illustrate this point:

Rory Sabbatini finished T11 and scored 85.5 points on Draftkings. He had 50 pars, 14 birdies, 2 eagles, 5 bogies, and 1 double bogey.

Ricky Barnes also finished T11, but he had 102.5 points on Draftkings. He had 43 pars, 17 birdies, 2 eagles, an ace, and 10 bogies.

Eric Comption also finished T11, but he had 106 points on Drafktings (more than 20 points more than Sabbatini). He had 38 pars, 21 birdies, 1 eagle, an ace, 12 bogies, and two streaks of 3 consecutive birdies (3 point bonus).

Johnson Wagner finished T18 and he still had more points than Sabbatini, 89.5. He had 47 pars, 16 birdies, 1 eagle, 8 bogies, and two streaks of three consecutive birdies.

Brooks Koepka, one of our favorites is a scoring machine. He is the exact type of player we want to target for scoring systems like Draftkings and FantasyAces, because he will bogie and double bogie all over the place, but it does not matter because the penalty does not nearly offset all of the points he accumulates with all of his birdies and eagles. This past week at the RBC Canadian, he only finished T18, but he scored 89.5 points. 43 pars, 18 birdies, 1 eagle, 10 bogies, and two streaks of 3 consecutive birdies.

Finally, Brian Harmon who finished T34 (over 20 places worse than Sabbatini) still scored more than him with 87 points. The reason was that he was much more volatile in his scoring with 40 pars, 22 birdies, 6 bogies, 4 double bogies, and two 3 consecutive birdie streaks.
These are a wonderful illustration as to the power of scoring. Most people would look at the standings and say “wow Rory Sabbatini did much better than Brian Harmon”. Well he did in the standings, but we are focused on one thing, winning in DFS and points scored is the name of the game.

So now you are asking, “how do we factor this into our research”, great question. First, just by following and watching week in and week out, you will get a feel for who these birdie/bogey players are. Jason Day, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson are a few examples of guys who tend to rack up points with their ability to put up birdies and eagles. You can also look at certain statistics that will help reveal these types of players. Birdie Average and Birdie or Better percentage are a couple of stats that will help you. Depending upon the course, if eagle opportunities are plentiful take a look at par 4 and 5 eagle leaders. Analyzing these stats would help you to know that lesser known guys like Shawn Stefani, Brendan Steele, and Ben Martin also stand out as guys that can rack up points. These statistics are all available on PGATour.com under statistics. We of course are always looking at those statistics and factor them into our recommendation in this preview each week and Roger Casey into his FantasyAces preview and Zach Turcotte in his “Daily Spin” Draftkings Preview. Having this information is going to give you such an edge over the field, because we know for a fact that not too many people are looking that closely at scoring itself.

Be sure to note the following players have already withdrawn from the Quicken loans National, yet some still appear on some DFS sites. Brendon Todd, Tom Gillis, Alex Cejka, Russell Henley, Matt Every, Matt Jones, Davis Love III. Stay tuned for more as the week goes by and we will keep you updated if any more come along.

 

Top Stud Picks:

 

Justin Rose- We know that this event has not been played at Robert Trent Jones in the past, but it does not seem to matter where it is played, Rose plays well in this event. A win last year at Congressional and a 16th in 2009 plus a win in 2010 and 15th in 2011 at Aronimink Golf Club. We think he has a chance to win this event on the third different course this week. He looked very good at The Open Championship finishing T6. Other nice performances in the past three months include a T27 at the U.S Open, 2nd at Memorial, T2 at The Masters, and a win at the Zurich Classic. He ranks 20th in driving distance, 82nd in driving accuracy, 29th in greens in regulation, 26th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 86th in strokes gained putting. Rose looks to be the one to beat in this tournament and it is awfully hard to bet against him. His price in DFS, especially Draftkings is high and makes it difficult to roster him in cash games. (Mostly GPP)

Jimmy Walker- Generally, we do not recommend a ton of Jimmy Walker after about March, but in a field this thin, it is hard not to mention him as he is easily one of the most talented players. A T30 at The Open, T58 at the U.S Open, T2 at Byron Nelson, and T65 at Crowne Plaza are his results over the past two months. As you know, he is an unbelievable putter and ranks 1st in strokes gained putting. In addition he ranks 17th in driving distance, 177th in driving accuracy, 42nd in greens in regulation, 27th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 56th in par 4 scoring. He also has a high price-tag on DFS, but there is a lot of value in the cheaper range so he might be a good option. (Mostly GPP)

Rickie Fowler- We have not recommended Fowler hardly at all this season and we have been correct as his only great performance he has had was at The Players.(also won the Scottish Open, but there were not any contest for that event) At The Players, he put together a miraculous three-hole stretch on Sunday to nab a playoff spot and took advantage of the opportunity. Outside of that, he has not played anywhere remotely close to last year where he placed in the Top 5 in all four majors. That being said, there are only three guys in this entire field that we would consider true studs (Fowler, Rose, and Walker). Fowler has missed three cuts this year in only 14 events played and has only had four Top 10s. He ranks 45th in driving distance, 59th in driving accuracy, 131st in greens in regulation, 53rd in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 131st in strokes gained putting. For season long leagues Fowler definitely is in play. He is one of the most expensive players in DFS this week, and will most likely be one of the higher owned. We are of the mid-set that we are not going to go with Fowler in cash games, and only roster him in a couple of our GPPs and intentionally fade him on others. That way if he gets hot, which he has shown he is capable of doing we will have a little exposure. But if he plays like he has most of the season we will have faded him on enough teams and separated ourselves from a large part of the field who does own him. (GPP only)

Justin Thomas- After a final round 75 that sent him plummeting from the top of the leaderboard to T54 at Greenbrier, Thomas showed resiliency and bounced back with a T5 at the John Deere a week later. He has had a very impressive rookie season that has included eleven Top 25s and six Top 10s in 24 events played. Thomas ranks 18th in driving distance, 159th in driving accuracy, 56th in greens in regulation, 22nd in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 109th in strokes gained putting. The only negative you can say about Thomas is that he has missed seven cuts this season and we would like to see his cut percentage get better. He is a big-time talent however and only going to improve and we like his chances this week. He is the type of player we described above who is volatile and puts up a lot of birdies and eagles. (Mostly GPP because of the propensity to miss too many cuts)

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Johnson Wagner- A week after appearing in our recommendations and delivering another great T18 finish at RBC Canadian, Wagner finds himself in our mix again this week. After missing five consecutive cuts, Wagner has had a T10 at Barbasol two weeks ago, T5 at John Deere, and T32 at Greenbrier. He also has a runner-up finish at the Shell Houston Open this season. He ranks 89th in driving distance, 93rd in driving accuracy, 16th in greens in regulation, 115th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 85th strokes gained putting. Not too many guys are as locked in as Wagner is and we are going to ride his hot streak. (GPP and Cash Games)

Andy Sullivan- The Englishman had a solid Open Championship finishing 30th, which came after a 62nd at the Scottish Open. He has been over to the U.S a couple of times this season missing the cut at the U.S Open, but looked great at The Memorial placing T13. He has also had some impressive performances on the European Tour this summer with a T6 at The Alstom Open de France, T6 at the Irish Open and 17th in the BMW Invitational. Having only a couple of appearances in the U.S, we will look at his statistics on the European Tour because it is from a larger sample size and more relevant. Sullivan ranks 35th greens in regulation, 43rd driving accuracy, 67th in driving distance, 83rd in scrambling, and 114th in putting. (Mostly GPP due to small sample size on PGA Tour)

Jason Bohn- In his last seven tournaments played, Bohn has four Top 15s including, a T12 at John Deere, T13 at Greenbrier, T2 at Crowne Plaza, and T9 at Wells Fargo. His current form is very good right now and that is the most important variable we have this week. Statistically Bohn ranks 182nd in driving distance, 4th in driving accuracy, 26th in greens in regulation, 4th in par 4 scoring, 39th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 49th in strokes gained putting. (GPP and Cash Games)

Steven Bowditch- Outside of a missed cut at John Deere, Bowditch has played great golf over the past two months. A win at the Byron Nelson, T52 at the Memorial, T22 FedEx St Jude, T15 at Travelers, T13 at Greenbrier, and T30 at The Open Championship have marked his excellent current form. Bowditch ranks 22nd in driving distance, 178th in driving accuracy, 35th in par 4 scoring, 150th in greens in regulation, 72nd in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 66th in strokes gained putting. In a week where we are putting a heavy premium on current form, Bowditch looks to be a good option. (GPP and Cash Games)

Kevin Chappell- How many of you were burned by Kevin Chappell last week? We just raised our hands as well. What generally happens the week after a highly owned player misses the cut? Correct, people avoid him like the plague the following week. If you rostered Chappell like we did last week, we realize it will make you sick to your stomach to have this guy occupy a spot on any of your rosters, but it will pay off big sometimes. We have already seen it happen numerous times this year and we just look at it as an opportunity. Before his inexplicable missed cut last week, Chappell had been playing extremely well including a consecutive made cut streak of seven, which included four Top 25s. He currently ranks 62nd in driving distance, 68th in driving accuracy, 102nd in greens in regulation, 118th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 37th in proximity to the hole, and 62nd in strokes gained putting. The weirdest thing is the fact that his price has actually gone up from where it was on Draftkings last week despite his putrid performance at The RBC Canadian. This is all the more reason for people to scatter from owning him. (Sprinkle him into your GPP lineups to go against the masses, avoid him in cash games however just to make sure last week wasn’t the start of a trend)

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

George McNeill- Its funny, no matter where this event was held over the past seven years (Congressional or Aronimink Golf Club), Mcneill has played well and made the cut (four Top 35s). McNeill missed the cut in his last event played this season at The John Deere three weeks ago, but before then he had been great (only MC at Chambers Bay in previous two months). Even at his best, T5 at Crowne Plaza, not too many people rostered McNeill in DFS. He is one of those guys who is perpetually under the radar, which is good for us. He has seven Top 25s this season in 21 events played. He ranks 129th in driving distance, 72nd in driving accuracy, 135th in greens in regulation, 64th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 47th in strokes gained putting. We are hoping the three weeks off have recharged his battery and he is ready to produce another Top 20 this week. (GPP and Cash Games)

Bryce Molder- In his last nine events played (mid April-current), Molder has only missed one cut (FedEx St Jude). In his past three events he has a T28 at John Deere, T6 at Greenbrier, and T64 at Travelers. He has five Top 25s and two Top 10s in 20 events played this year. Molder ranks 179th in driving distance, 34th in driving accuracy, 116th in greens in regulation, 128th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 16th in strokes gained putting, and 14th in par 4 scoring. He is a guy who has been playing consistently well lately and is still priced very reasonably throughout DFS. (GPP and Cash Games)

Vaughn Taylor- In his PGA Tour tournaments this season, Taylor has been really consistent, if not great for what is generally his low price in DFS. 8 made cuts in 9 events played, with five Top 25s and two Top 10s for a guy who is priced at $6,400 on Draftkings? We like that value a lot. For some reason his statistics do not rank him on PGATour.com, but we figured them out anyway. If he qualified, based on his events played he would rank 130th in driving distance, 40th in driving accuracy, 42nd in greens in regulation, 13th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 30th in strokes gained putting. We can get behind this guy in both cash games and GPPs and suggest you do to. (GPP and Cash Games)

Scott Brown- In his past 13 events played, Brown has only missed two cuts, but his last appearance was one of them at John Deere albeit by only 2 strokes. He has been the model of consistency for most of the season, and produced tons of Top 40 finishes, but only two Top 10s in 26 events played. What this means for you daily players is that he is a good fit for cash games and smaller GPPs where the importance is placed upon making the cut and finishing respectably. If you are entering the $3 contest on Draftkings where there are 100,000+ entrants, in order to win it you are going to need all of your guys in the Top 20, if not the Top 10, thus Brown probably is not your guy. This all boils down to knowing what type of contests you are entering and what the proper strategy is. If you are newer to DFS be sure to check our page called How to win $ playing Daily. Brown ranks 115th in driving distance, 98th in driving accuracy, 128th in greens in regulation, 79th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 117th in strokes gained putting. We think because of his missed cut at John Deere he will be off most people’s radars, but he is a great fit for certain contests. Plus only $6,400 on Draftkings. (Cash Games and small field GPPs)

 

Best of luck to all of you, and remember to keep us updated on how you are doing, we feel a lot of joy when our members do well.

-Fantasy Golf Insider

 

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