Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Qatar Masters (European Package)

OVERVIEW
Last week was pretty good overall and we’ll keep that momentum going again this week in Qatar. The wind will be the differentiator this week, so it’ll be imperative to take guys that play well in windy conditions as well as strong links players (I think that explains why Branden Grace is a two time defending champion this week). Water is also an issue this week as six holes feature a water hazard, luckily the Euro Tour doesn’t have shot tracker so there’s really nothing to tilt over other than how the players finish. One thing I will mention before getting to the plays is that there seems to be a strong correlation to success at this event with the Dunhill Links Championship, so I’ll be sure to touch on guys who have played well there as well as those who are trending in the right direction.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND
o The Course
• Abu Dhabi GC
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,400 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
o Location: Doha, Qatar
o Expected scoring: Scoring has been relatively “high” at this event over the years and that’s due in large part to the conditions, but also because there aren’t many “easy” holes out here. I think we see the winning score around -13 this week, unless the wind really kicks up (Sunday looks to be the worst of the wind as of writing).
o Past Champions:
• 2016: Branden Grace -14 over Rafa Cabrera-Bello & Thorbjorn Olesen [-12]
• 2015: Branden Grace -19 over Marc Warren [-18]
• 2014: Sergio Garcia -16 in a playoff over Mikko Ilonen
• 2013: Chris Wood -18 over George Coetzee & Sergio Garcia [-17]
• 2012: Paul Lawrie -15 over Jason Day & Peter Hanson [-11]
• 2011: Thomas Bjorn -14 over Alvaro Quiros [-10]

KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – Greens In Regulation, Driving Distance, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – Course History, Current Form, Strong Wind/Links Players

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STARS:

Bernd Wiesberger (DK $11,000)
• Course History: 13th – 3rd – MC – 42nd – MC – MC
• Form: 4th – 4th – 4th
• Stats: 70.24 – Scoring Avg, 57.14% – DA, 292.17 yards – DD, 75.93% GIR
• Other – Wiesberger continues to perplex me week in and week out. He’s a strong links player (confirmed by his T7 finish at DHL) and has been on quite a run since his 2nd place finish at the KLM Open in November and hasn’t missed a cut since July. I think he’s a fine cash play this week and might have some ownership in large pool GPP’s in case he notches his first win in two years.

Alex Noren (DK $10,900)
• Course History: 41st – 9th – 4th – MC – 49th – 21st – 13th – MC
• Form: 13th – 23rd
• Stats: 70.03 – Scoring Avg, 50% – DA, 296.33 yards – DD, 79.63% – GIR
• Other – A horse for the course, Noren comes in off an impressive start to 2017 finishing 13th in Abu Dhabi on a course that played to the strengths in his game. Actually, he doesn’t really have many weaknesses when you look at his statistical breakdown across both PGA & Euro Tour sites. I think he finally believes in his game after having a career year, and being the favorite this week has to put another feather in his cap.  He finished T11 at the Dunhill Links (DHL) in October, Won at Nedbank (links), Won the British Masters (links), T46 at the Open Championship, and took 12th at the Nordea Masters (links)… He’s a very strong links player.

Martin Kaymer (DK $10,800)
• Course History: Win – 66th
• Form: 4th – 19th
• Stats: 70.78 – Scoring Avg, 61.23% – DA, 291.18 yards – DD, 71.66% – GIR
• Other – Euro Tour Kaymer continues to be better than the PGA Tour version and this week is no different. Even though he’s taken this event off the last two years he’s still a horse for the course as he’s made all but one cut and finished in the Top 10 in two of those. He’ll be popular this week coming off his disappointing 4th place finish (boo hoo).
ALSO CONSIDER – I’ll be fading Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,900) this week coming off his much overdue win. It’s nothing personal, but he’s peaked and it’s time to move on. Ok, maybe it is a little personal because we rode him into the sunset last year and I chose to write up BH An last week over Fleetwood because I’m an idiot. Joost Luiten (DK $9,600) had a decent showing last week, but it could’ve been better. I think he returns to the Top 10 this week after a disappointing showing last week.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Thorbjorn Olesen (DK $9,300)
• Tournament History: 2nd – MC – 3rd – 22nd – 59th – MC
• Form: 29th – 19th
• Stats: 71.23 – Scoring Avg, 55.73% DA, 291.19 yards – DD, 71.10% GIR
• Other – Thor has been a bride’s maid in two of his last three appearances here, so you have to think something big is on the horizon. I’ve strongly considered rostering only players who have come in 2nd or 3rd this week as there seems to be a correlation to guys winning after they let it slip away the year previously and Olesen fits the bill. 29th last week after a long layoff is good enough form for me to take a chance this week.

Dean Burmester (DK $8,000)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 7th – 4th – 17th – 8th
• Stats: 71.23 – Scoring Avg, 53.97% – DA, 315.58 yards – DD, 68.10% – GIR
• Other – I hesitated on Dean-O last week as I didn’t expect big things from the bomber in back to back starts, primarily because of his lack of accuracy and of course he made me look like a fool. This week I’ll roll him out with moderate confidence as the fairways open up. His length off the tee should give him a leg up on the majority of the field, and it’s pretty obvious that things are clicking for him right now.

Thongchai Jaidee (DK $7,800)
• Course History: 20th – 23rd – 33rd – 9th – 20th – 19th – 32nd – MC – 25th – 9th – 24th – 39th
• Form: MC – 6th – 14th – 40th – 16th – 17th
• Stats: 70.79 – Scoring Avg, 58.93% – DA, 281.62 yards – DD, 68.44% – GIR
• Other – Thong-song should be a fairly chalky play in cash games, but with that course history you have to know when to bite the bullet. One missed cut in twelve appearances shows extreme signs of comfort and I like his Top 20 upside as well.
ALSO CONSIDER – Graeme McDowell (DK $8,700) is a strong links player hailing from Ireland. He’s won a US Open, and hasn’t played professional golf in three months. If anything I’d play him as a one off in large pool GPP’s this week because he has the upside as well as a pretty strong course history from the early part of the 2000’s (when he was an up and coming star). He also finished T15 at the Dunhill Links in October. George Coetzee (DK $8,200) is much better on links courses than anywhere else and his history at this event is about as good as it gets without a win (7th – 12th – 5th – 2nd – 35th). He fell off the map Sunday, but was holding strong in the Top 15 up until that point so his game is close and returning to a course where he’s had success could mean big things. Ryan Fox (DK $7,700) continues to roll through cuts and provide Top 20 upside as he finished 19th last week. He’s close to something big and this price allows us to get some bigger names in around him. Mikko Ilonen (DK $7,200) missed last week’s cut, but the Fin has played extremely well at this event over his career having only missed three cuts in nine tries. Ilonen is more of an accuracy guy, but has played well on links courses in the past six months so there’s some comfort in the bounce-back this week and finishing T18 at the DHL adds even more confidence in his links play.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Johan Carlsson (DK $7,000)
• Tournament History: 13th – 13th – 16th
• Form: 39th – 49th – 31st
• Stats: 71.39 – Scoring Avg, 57.14% – DA, 306.83 yards – DD, 74.07% – GIR
• Other – The Johan makes his return to this article after a long layoff as he’s finished in the Top 16 in all three previous appearances and comes off a decent performance in Abu Dhabi (T39). He’s long off the tee, and may be my favorite of the Carlsson’s this week. Swedes & links courses narrative in full effect with this play.

Magnus A Carlsson (DK $6,700)
• Tournament History: MC – 13th – 9th
• Form: 29th – MC
• Stats: 71.24 – Scoring Avg, 55.71% – DA, 289.10 yards – DD, 72.22% – GIR
• Other – You thought I’d leave off “The Other” Carlsson? Not a chance. Even though he missed the cut last year, he finished T13 in 2015 and T9 in 2014 so I’m chalking up his MC to a bad week as he clearly has the game to be successful here. Knocking off the rust from a long layoff to the tune of a 29th place finish helps his case this week, but I don’t think I’d play either in cash games.
ALSO CONSIDER – Renato Paratore (DK $6,800) has made the cut twice in two appearances, but also comes in having missed his last two cuts so there is some risk with the play. The kicker for me is that he finished 7th at the DHL and played really well on the weekend. Daniel Brooks (DK $6,000) doesn’t do anything outstanding, but he does a lot of things above average and for that reason I like his chances this week. Brooks hits half of the fairways he sees, but he hits the ball far enough where he’s usually left with mid to short irons in and his putter isn’t the worst club in his bag. I’ll take all of that for his price this week in all formats, but specifically in cash.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $10,300): I’m going to permanently keep him in this section until he wins, and even then I don’t know if I can bare to remove him from this section. You know the deal with him  Birdies = DK Points. 2nd here last year, 3rd in 2014 & 2011.

Jordan Smith (DK $7,500) – The “kid” continues to roll. Long and accurate off the tee, accurate with his irons, and a good putter is exactly what we’re looking for in our value GPP plays. Smith is grooving it in all facets right now and we should continue to reap the benefits. Ownership levels still haven’t caught up with what he brings every week.

Alexander Bjork (DK $7,300): Not many have heard of him, but he’s been playing really well in his first four events on Tour this year to the tune of three Top 20’s (one Top 10) and is 4/4 in cuts made. Looking at his statistical breakdown provides proof as to why this is happening – 71.43% DA, 285.70 yards DD, 78.15% GIR, 30.27 Putts per round. I doubt he eclipses the 5% ownership mark this week.

Paul Dunne (DK $7,300): Dunne’s history at the Open Championship is an open book (was in the Top 5 until a Sunday 78 in 2015 as a rookie, missed the cut last year on a much tougher course), but he continues to show promise in deeper fields, most notably at the Made In Denmark (T10), KLM Open (T16), BMW Int’l (T13), Joburg Open (9th). He’s a very good links player and has matured over the past two years and that maturation is shown in his last three finishes: 39th – 29th – 28th. He also finished 25th at DHL in October.

Marc Warren (DK $7,200) – Scottish player (links heavy courses) with the bride’s maid narrative after finishing runner up two years ago. Finished 49th last week on a course that I wouldn’t have pegged for his game. He’s long enough off the tee, and a great putter who finished 5th at DHL in October.

Richard Bland (DK $7,000) – Has missed two straight cuts, so ownership will be low as he was a favorite among many DFS sites for the past few months. His accuracy off the tee is what’s been killing him and getting more inviting fairways should change the result this week. We should see the Bland we all grew to love. Finished 7th last year.

Joakim Lagergren (DK $6,600) – Missed the cut last week, but is a very strong play for both large and small pool GPP’s. Lagergren is long off the tee and is an above average putter. Swedes tend to play well in windy conditions and his 41st place finish here is enough for me to consider him. He also finished 4th at the DHL.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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