Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Portugal Masters (European Package)

OVERVIEW

Another week in the books and another “Masters” event on the European Tour (yes I used this line last week, but it holds true again this week). This week we actually have some course history to look at so we’re not flying too blind. Distance off the tee will be key this week so you’ll notice a lot of bombers will be listed in the picks sections. The course was designed by Arnold Palmer in 2004, so expect more of a resort course style of design (which should lead to lower scores). The course is a very flat links course with minimal trees and four lakes come into play on seven holes – so there will be plenty of opportunities for some blow up holes.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Oceanico Victoria GC
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,209
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Vilamoura, Portugal
• Expected scoring: Expect some low scores this week as history has shown us these guys will go low on this course. I’d expect somewhere around -20 for the winner unless the winds pick up.   
• Past Champion:
• 2015: Andy Sullivan -23 over Chris Wood [-14]
• 2014: Alexander Levy -18 over Nicolas Colsaerts [-15] (tournament shortened due to heavy rain – 36 holes)
• 2013: David Lynn -18 over Justin Walters [-17]
• 2012: Shane Lowry -14 over Ross Fisher [-13]
• 2011: Tom Lewis -21 over Rafa Cabrera-Bello [-19]
• 2010: Richard Green -18 over Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, Robert Karlsson, Joost Luiten, & Francesco Molinari [-16]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Greens in Regulation, Driving Distance, Putts per GIR
• Important – Course History, Current Form, Ball Striking, Scrambling

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STARS:

Thomas Pieters (DK $11,500)

• Course History: 6^th – 111^th
• Form: 50^th – 57^th – WIN – 2^nd – 4^th
• Stats:54 – Scoring Avg, 55.67% – DA, 301.45 yards – DD, 68.82% – GIR
• Other – Pieters fell a bit flat in his first event after the Ryder Cup, but wisely took last week off and should be fresh coming in. His game sets up really well for this course and I was a bit shocked at his 6^th place finish here last year. My only concern this week is how volatile and out of the blue his WD’s have been this year, so I would only recommend him for GPP’s this week (not to mention starting cash games with Pieters never sits well for however long he plays).

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,500)

• Course History: 22^nd – 12^th – 26^th – MC
• Form: 4^th – 15^th – 13^th – 7^th – 10^th – 49^th
• Stats:91 – Scoring Avg, 58.78% – DA, 293.56 yards – DD, 72.22% – GIR
• Other – Tommy is really dragging out this whole “I’m going to peak at the right moment” thing isn’t he? He’s long off the tee and playing great in this final push for the Race to Dubai. Having made ¾ cuts here is comforting and again that form is just ridiculous. Is it this week he finally punches his ticket? I hope so, I’ll be making him a core play this week.

Nicolas Colsaerts (DK $9,200)

• Course History: 18^th – 2^nd – 15^th – 44^th – MC
• Form: 49^th – 31^st – 13^th – 38^th – 24^th – 24^th
• Stats: 71 – Scoring Avg, 55.52% – DA, 304.67 yards – DD, 74.46% – GIR
• Other – Colsaerts sets up well like his fellow countryman Pieters this week as both are long off the tee. The issue here is his price and lack of Top 10 upside (outside of 1 appearance here). Colsaerts is in play for cash games as his price allows you to not get too scrubby depending on who you pair him with, but I don’t know if I can suggest him in GPP’s with his form on the wrong side of positive. If you do play him in GPP’s, I’d limit your exposure to around 15% because he’ll be fairly popular.

ALSO CONSIDER – Andy Sullivan (DK $10,100) is the defending champion this week and outside of Steve Webster in 2008 and Alvaro Quiros in 2009, no defending champion has fared well in their defense appearance. I’m actually impressed with how he won last year and the amount he won by, but his game just hasn’t been the same this year so I’d fade Sully at this price. Thongchai Jaidee (DK $9,900) was a recommendation last week and although he was expensive, he played all four days and finished 22^nd. He’s been on a nice run for the past month or so, so continuing to go back to this well seems like a smart move. I don’t mind him for cash or GPP’s this week as he’s only missed two cuts in seven appearances and has finished inside the Top 20 four times.

 

 VALUE PLAYS:

 Anthony Wall (DK $8,900)

• Course History: 3^rd – 68^th – 17^th – 16^th – 38^th – 41^st – 12^th – 10^th – 21^st
• Form: 18^th – 31^st – WD – 18^th
• Stats: 00 – Scoring Avg, 59.31% – DA, 284.36 yards – DD, 63.79% – GIR
• Other – Zero missed cuts here, and flashing form? Yeah, sign me up. If you’re looking to fade the top guys in cash start with Wall. In GPP’s I like pairing him with Pieters or Colsaerts and filling in with some value plays down the line. Wall has shown a familiarity with this course that not many have, don’t over think this one.

Thomas Aiken (DK $8,600)

• Tournament History: 25^th – 12^th – 38^th – 27^th – 23^rd – 27^th
• Form: 33^rd – 29^th – 24^th – MC – 13^th
• Stats:73 – Scoring Avg, 70% – DA, 285.52 yards – DD, 78.89% – GIR
• Other – I purposely left out Aiken in last week’s preview article because I wanted to see how he’d play coming off such a long layoff from golf and not really playing his best prior to that. Those concerns were put to rest after Aiken finished 33^rd last week and ripping off 14 birdies. I think he finishes inside the Top 20 this week and has some legitimate Top 10 upside, which makes him both cash & GPP viable.

ALSO CONSIDER – Robert Rock (DK $8,000) has only missed three cuts in nine tries (although he would’ve been cut if they played more than 36 holes in 2014). Rock isn’t a sexy play by any means, but has the ball striking to get it done when it counts. I’d recommend him for cash this week as he’s also made six of his last six cuts. Renato Paratore (DK $7,900) continued to build off of his cuts made streak last week finishing 22^nd and makes for a nice value play again this week. He now has three Top 25’s and has two Top 10’s in his last six events. Joakim Lagergren (DK $7,900) was a suggested fade last week and it was looking good until he fired off a Friday 65, following that up with rounds of 66 & 69 to finish T18. Dude is grooving right now and seeing him bounce back after an opening round ejection makes me think he should be considered for GPP’s as he’s missed the cut both times here.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

  Gregory Havret (DK $7,400)

• Tournament History: 64^th – 80^th – 70^th – MC – 3^rd – 22^nd – MC – 59^th – 54^th
• Form: MC – 18^th – 7^th – MC – MC – 49^th – 64^th
• Stats:53 – Scoring Avg, 71.46% – DA, 273.50 yards – DD, 70.74% – GIR
• Other – When punting we need guys with some kind of upside, whether it’s birdie making or ejection avoidance, unfortunately in this case it’s the ejection avoidance that lands Havret on the list this week. Havret’s ball striking skills are the main reason why he’s here, but as long as he can continue to keep the ball in play I see no reason not to punt with him this week – is what I had written for him thinking that he would be priced below $7k. Although he’s not really priced as a punt, its tough to feel confident about many of the guys below this price range so for cash games I’d say Havret is as low as I’d go in cash and with only two cuts missed here you have to like what you see in his price.

Richard Green (DK $6,900)

• Tournament History: 18^th – 17^th – 37^th – 70^th – WIN – 42^nd
• Form: MC – MC – 13^th – 16^th – MC – 24^th – 50^th
• Stats: 35 – Scoring Avg, 61.84% – DA, 281.32 yards – DD, 61% – GIR
• Other – This suggestion has less to do with his win ages ago and more to do with the price + history. His form looks worse than it is as he missed the cut by 1 shot last week which should result in suppressed ownership this week. If not for the dreaded 6^th hole, he and Bjerregaard both would’ve been playing the weekend and would look a lot better in the eyes of DFS players this week. Now’s not the time to put much stock in the back to back missed cuts.

 David Drysdale (DK $6,900)

• Tournament History: 16^th – 30^th – 57^th – MC – 66^th – MC – MC
• Form: WD (pre round) – 47^th – 39^th – 59^th – MC – 12^th – 44^th
• Stats: 40 – Scoring Avg, 71.06% DA, 279.70 yards – DD, 74.14% GIR
• Other – There wasn’t much news about Drysdale’s reasoning for withdrawing prior to the start of the last event, so keep an eye on this as we get closer to lock on Wednesday. If it’s an ankle/wrist/back issue, fade him, but if it was just a last minute illness he should be good to go. We don’t ask much from our punts, other than to tee off, and Drysdale’s history here is worth punting for, he just needs to make it to the first tee.

ALSO CONSIDER – Alvaro Quiros (DK $7,000) is what I would call a horse for this course with six Top 25’s in nine appearances including his win in 2008. His game has been nonexistent all year so it’s tough to trust the history – some players just feel at home on specific courses, and this one seems to be his happy place. As well as fellow Spaniard Adrian Otaegui (DK $6,900) who has a 37^th & 12^th place finish in two appearances here. Again, Spain/Portugal correlation here, if that’s not your bag, I don’t blame you for not playing either of them. If you can stomach what seems like another letdown spot for Chris Hanson (DK $6,500) he should make for a fine play this week. Most of that is riddled with bias because Hanson has won me a lot of money since Euro Tour DFS took off, but there’s something to be said about how he continues to grind out start after start – especially when it felt like his win was right around the corner.

 

GPP PLAYS: 

George Coetzee (DK $7,500)

• Course History: 21^st – 6^th – 3^rd
• Form: MC – 25^th – MC – 72^nd – MC – 18^th
• Stats: 45 – Scoring Avg, 55.86% – DA, 298.54 yards – DD, 64.96% – GIR
• Other – The form is brutal, but it’s making me laugh as he’s basically missed every other cut for the last 3 months. The real intrigue here is how he’s finished specifically in this event. I doubt people will want to play him with confidence with the form, so the hope here is to get a mid-tier player at low ownership who excels on links courses. Coetzee played well in majors last year, so it’s been a bit of a downer to see him struggle this year.

Lucas Bjerregaard (DK $7,000)

• Course History: 9^th – 47^th
• Form: MC – MC – 39^th – 20^th – 28^th – 49^th
• Stats: 74 – Scoring Avg, 56.75% – DA, 305.52 yards – DD, 70.39% – GIR
• Other – Did someone say Bomber Course? “Buy a Vowel” mashes it off the tee and has missed two consecutive cuts now. For a player who was rolling along nicely to all of a sudden hit a funk is odd, but only being able to get to play St. Andrews for one round should’ve scared off many at the Dunhill, and as for last week, he started out slow and missed the cut by 1 mainly due to a double bogey on 6 – a hole he struggled with in both rounds. I really like the upside here in his game as well as from an ownership standpoint, which is why he lands in the GPP section this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Stephen Gallacher (DK $8,700) has some phenomenal finishes here in his last three tries – 9^th – 3^rd – 6^th and followed up a 38^th place finish at the Dunhill with a 12^th place finish last week. I don’t like that price, but that’s why he’s highlighted here and not up at the top of this preview. Spaniards Pablo Larrazabal (DK $7,600) and Alejandro Canizares (DK $7,300) both must be considered mainly because of where they’re from. If I had to choose one, I’d lean Larrazabal as his history here is much better and is on the right side of current form. Finally, Craig Lee (DK $7,000) (who was also mentioned in last week’s article) has the current form that we’re looking for in GPP punt plays finishing 60^th, 25^th and 24^th in his last three and when you combine that with his 6^th place finish here last year, you feel a bit more comfortable making the punt.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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