Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- PGA Championship

The PGA Championship makes its way back to Baltusrol Golf Club for the first time since 2005. At that PGA Championship, Phil Mickelson defeated Thomas Bjorn & Steve Elkington by one shot to claim his first and only Wannamaker Trophy by making a birdie at the 72nd hole. Baltusrol was designed by AW Tillinghast, who has designed several courses played on Tour. His designs all have a similar theme to them – they typically have blind tee and approach shots, as well as ramped approach areas to the green. Very similar to old school Scottish links tracks. Not many players in the field have course history here so instead of just looking at course history, I’d also look at how each player you’re considering have done in the majors in the past five years as well as how they’ve fared on long and difficult courses. If there’s a player you think I missed writing up, it probably doesn’t have anything to do with me not liking him, it’s just that there’s a ton of players in the field and I’m trying to write up the strongest plays. Also, historically, club professionals haven’t exactly lit the course on fire. If you’re looking at minimum priced players, I’d strongly suggest playing Tour Pros over Club Pros.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• Baltusrol Golf Club (Lower Course)
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,428
• Greens: Bentgrass
o Location: Springfield, New Jersey
o Expected scoring: With a lot of top tier talent not participating in the Olympics, the focus will be on claiming the Wannamaker Trophy and a novelty size check. I really think the talent of this year’s players exceeds that of most and the winning score could be close to -12 or better.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Jason Day -20 over Jordan Spieth -17
• 2014: Rory McIlroy -16 over Phil Mickelson -15
• 2013: Jason Dufner -10 over Jim Furyk -8
• 2012: Rory McIlroy -13 over David Lynn -5
• 2011: Keegan Bradley -8 over Jason Dufner in a playoff
• 2010: Martin Kaymer -11 over Bubba Watson in a playoff

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KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT, SG: APP, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie or Better %, Scrambling
o Important – SG:Putting, Driving Distance, Greens in Regulation, Rough Proximity, Proximity to Hole

STARS:

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,600)
• Course History: N/A (2005) / 7th – N/A – 8th – 48th – MC
• Form: 2nd – 9th – WIN – WIN – 5th – 3rd – 12th – 28th
• Stats: 2nd – SG:OTT, 15th – SG:APP, 2nd – SG:T2G, 34th – SG:P, 1st – DD, 29th – GIR, 2nd – Birdie Avg, 1st – Scoring Avg, 32nd – TD, 2nd – Prox, 2nd – Rough Prox, 52nd Scrambling, 1st – Par Breakers, 6th – P3 Scoring, 1st – P4 Scoring, 10th – P5 Scoring, 23rd – P3 BoB, 1st – P4 BoB, 11th – P5 BoB
• Other – We get DJ at a $900 discount from last week and he looks ready for his second career major. Even though he hasn’t played many Tillinghast designs in his career, he still ranks in the Top 25 in total strokes gained on AWT designs. I’ve said it week after week, he’s playing the better than he’s ever played and you can never count him out of a tournament. He’s one of four players I think could win this event this week.

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,400)
• Course/Tournament History: N/A (2005) / 17th – WIN – 8th- WIN – 64th
• Form: 5th – 3rd – MC – 4th – WIN – 12th – 4th – 10th – 27th – 3rd
• Stats: 1st – SG:OTT, 79th – SG: APP, 23rd – SG:ARG, 61st – SG:P, 3rd – SG:T2G., 13th – DD, 70th – DA, 28th – GIR, 1st – Birdie Avg, 7th – Scoring Avg, 4th – Total Driving, 125th – Prox, 151st – Rough Prox, 75th – Scrambling, 2nd – Par Breakers, 145th – P3 Scoring, 16th – P4 Scoring, 1st – P5 Scoring, 78th – P3 BoB, 4th – P4 BoB, 1st – P5 BoB
• Other – Another player who I think can win this week is this two time PGA Championship winner. Rory’s been pretty consistent all year (as he usually is when healthy). Yes he’s missed a few cuts in some places where we’ve had a strong interest in him, but that’s due to his aggressive play as well as fighting what looks to be a corrected swing flaw (at least I think he’s corrected it since the US Open). Rory’s career record in majors often gets overlooked because of how fast Spieth got his first two and how Day & DJ are finally showing the world what everyone already knew, but Rory’s still the best in the game if you ask me. I’ll be heavier on Rory this week than any other of the top four players, and I think you should be too.

Phil Mickelson (DK $10,200)
• Course/ Tournament History: WIN (2005) / 18th – 2nd – 72nd – 36th – 19th
• Form: 2nd – 27th – MC – 2nd – 20th – MC – 4th – MC – MC
• Stats: 81st – SG:OTT, 14th – SG:APP, 23rd – SG:ARG, 4th – SG:P, 16th – SG:T2G, 63rd – DD, 152nd – DA, 82nd – GIR, 7th – Birdie Avg, 2nd – Scoring Avg, 4th – Sand Saves, 128th – Total Driving, 149th – Prox, 104th – Rough Prox, 4th – Scrambling, 7th – Par Breakers, 1st – P3 Scoring, 47th – P4 Scoring, 10th – P5 Scoring, 4th – P3 BoB, 57th – P4 BoB, 9th – P5 BoB
• Other – The third player I truly think will win this week is Phil. I’m biting hard on the “runner up at the last major” narrative this week just like I did last year with Jason Day (and we all know how that worked out). Phil plays very well on Tillinghast designed courses (Bethpage Black and Winged Foot are also Tillinghast designs where he’s had success and I believe he’s a member at Winged Foot also) as well as claiming his first and only PGA Championship here in ’05. I just think everything comes together here for Phil and if he’s not winning, he’s contending all weekend.

ALSO CONSIDER: Jordan Spieth (DK $11,100) – Prior to his play at The Open, I really liked how Spieth setup for this course. The more I think about where his game is and how whiney he’s been all year the more I think he’s either a fade for me this week or GPP only play. He almost missed the cut at The Open and even after he made the cut, he really didn’t do anything. Outside of Augusta (where he’s clearly comfortable), he hasn’t done much in major championships to warrant his price tag. As of writing this I’m 60/40 fade on Spieth. Adam Scott (DK $9,600) – Scott was a huge disappointment at The Open Championship, but I’m going back in GPP’s only. He’s too good of a player to continue to struggle and really, all that’s holding him back is his putter. Sergio Garcia (DK $9,400) – T23 in 2005, Sergio has been lights out at the majors this year T5 – Open Championship, T5 – US Open, T34 – Masters) and is also considered quite the Tillinghast specialist (he’s gained 28.79 total strokes on AW Tillinghast courses since 2005, which is 6th most) Starting your cash & GPP teams with Sergio & Phil might be the way to go this week considering how well both of their form is.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,800)
• Course History: N/A (2005) / 37th – 35th – 19th
• Form: MC – 42nd – MC – MC – 7th – 11th – 7th – 6th – 35th
• Stats: 23rd – SG:OTT, 3rd – SG:APP, 133rd – SG:ARG, 139th – SG:P, 8th – SG:T2G, 62nd – DD, 98th – DA, 61st – GIR, 5th – Birdie Avg, 27th – Scoring Avg, 46th – Total Driving, 34th – Prox, 27th – Rough Prox, 6th – Par Breakers, 42nd – P3 Scoring, 68th – P4 Scoring, 38th – P5 Scoring, 24th – P3 BoB, 6th – P4 BoB, 39th – P5 BoB
• Other – Hideki-Bot is too good of a player to be left off this list. He’s been struggling lately, but with the week off last week and heading home early at the Open Championship, hopefully he’s had plenty of time to update his hard drive. The price is still low enough where you can fit some expensive and value plays around him for cash, but I think the real place he belongs is in GPPs. Bubba and Kuchar both will take away from his ownership as well as his bad play of late. I really like where his ownership is headed this week, I just hope he’s ready to roll the rock because its pretty obvious that the putter is holding back his game.

Matt Kuchar (DK $8,600)
• Tournament History: N/A (2005) / 7th – N/A – 22nd – MC – 19th
• Form: 9th – 46th – 3rd – 46th – 4th – 6th – 3rd – 3rd – 42nd – 9th
• Stats: 37th – SG:OTT, 29th – SG:APP, 22nd – SG:ARG, 22nd – SG:P, 12th – SG:T2G, 138th – DD, 29th – DA, 34th – GIR, 17th – Birdie Avg, 8th – Scoring Avg, 24th – Sand Saves, 54th – Total Driving, 31st – Prox, 73rd – Rough Prox, 15th – Scrambling, 22nd Par Breakers, 90th – P3 Scoring, 5th – P4 Scoring, 21st – P5 Scoring, 134th – P3 BoB, 22nd – P4 BoB, 20th – P5 BoB
• Other – Nothing much to say here other than Kuch is what we think he is, but at least this week he’s priced a bit higher to give the casuals a little something to ponder before auto-locking him in their lineups. Regardless of what the casual players do, I’ll be playing him in roughly 80% of my cash lineups because he’s just that damn good/consistent and provides decent upside pretty much every week. This is supported by his 18/19 cuts made this year.

Branden Grace (DK $8,000)
• Course History: N/A (2005) / 3rd – 46th – MC – MC
• Form: 72nd – 29th – 10th – 5th – 57th – 9th – WIN – MC – 37th
• Stats: 34th – SG:OTT, 20th SG:APP, 58th – SG:ARG, 89th – SG:P, 13th – SG:T2G, 53rd – DD, 177th – DA, 68th – GIR, 107th – Birdie Avg, 14th – Scoring Avg, 69th – Sand Saves, 118th – Prox, 18th – Rough Prox, 83rd – Scrambling, 113th – Par Breakers, 155th – P3 Scoring, 27th – P4 Scoring, 150th – P5 Scoring, 165th – P3 BoB, 17th – P4 BoB, 190th – P5 BoB
• Other – Grace was “the play” at the Open, and ended up burning a lot of people.  Call this a gut play or whatever you want, but we’ve seen it happen often enough where the chalk play misses the cut at the event he’s super chalky, then comes back the following week at low ownership and crushes it. That’s how I’m treating Grace this week. Also, don’t get too wrapped up in his stats, he just qualified for the minimum amount of rounds played to warrant being ranked on PGATour.com.

ALSO CONSIDER – Martin Kaymer (DK $7,900) – Kaymer crushed my hopes and dreams at The Open Championship, but I’m not going to hold it against him. He literally had one hole take him out of “contention” (I say that with quotes because that tournament was really a two player tournament once Saturday was over). Regardless, Kaymer is a Major Champion who plays his best golf in these events. Don’t let any biases from his last tournament persuade you to avoid playing him. Brooks Koepka (DK $7,800) – Brooks was rolling along nicely until this ankle injury crept up. Some may say that even at his price tag he’s worth having a small exposure to this week. I’m not so sure about that to be honest. His ankle injury flared up at the US Open, got worse at the Bridgestone (so much so that he withdrew from The Open Championship). So we’re looking at about a month since the issue came up, if he plays I think it’s best to fade him. He’s a pretty popular play when he’s this cheap (or even slightly more expensive) so let’s have him give us a reason to play him before locking him in our lineups this week. Ankles, necks, ribs and wrist injuries affect the golf swing in weird/bad ways, FADE BROOKS. JB Holmes (DK $7,700) – Don’t look now, but JB is having a tremendous year in Major championships (T4 @ The Masters, MC @ US Open, 3rd @ The Open Championship). Aside from that missed cut, I think you could make a strong argument that his game is peaking at the right time this year which is always good to see. JB’s game really doesn’t suit major championships well in my opinion (he primarily hits a fade, which doesn’t setup well at Augusta, he doesn’t hit an extremely high percentage of fairways which you need to do at US Opens, and he isn’t considered a strong links player which removes him from consideration at The Open), so to see him get two Top 4’s in three majors is baffling. Regardless of how baffling it is, I don’t think he can be ignored in GPP’s this week. He could very well be a key part of a milly maker team.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Marc Leishman (DK $7,500)
• Course History: N/A (2005) / MC – 46th – 12th – 27th
• Form: 53rd – 55th – 39th – 18th – 11th – 13th – MC – 64th
• Stats: 78th – SG:OTT, 99th – SG:APP, 31st – SG:ARG, 53rd – SG:T2G, 68th – SG:P, 41st – DD, 86th – DA, 81st – GIR, 88th – Birdie Avg, 32nd – Scoring Avg, 19th – Total Driving, 79th – Prox, 58th – Scrambling, 87th – Par Breakers, 79th – P3 Scoring, 32nd – P4 Scoring, 58th – P5 Scoring, 68th – P4 BoB, 55th – P5 BoB
• Other – Statistically Leishman sets up well at pretty much every course he plays. It looked like things were swinging his way after the missed cut at the Byron Nelson (which was a weird place for him to miss the cut) with his run of three straight Top 15’s, but all of that positive momentum came to a screeching halt in his last two tournaments. I really don’t know how to explain it, other than he’s been grinding the heck out of cut days, but I’ve been backing him for so long at this point, I don’t know if I can get off the wagon quite yet. I really like him for cash this week since he’s proven to be a consistent cut maker year after year. I’m sure if I don’t play him in GPP’s he’ll go off, so I’ll hold him out of my GPP lineups this week and hope that one of our subscribers have him in their millionaire maker lineups that wins the grand prize.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,300)
• Course History: N/A (2005) / 37th – 15th – MC – 59th – 12th
• Form: 18th – 7th – 23rd – 11th – 25th – 58th – MC – 13th – WIN
• Stats: 47th – SG:OTT, 5th – SG:APP, 40th – SG:ARG, 84th – SG:P, 9th – SG:T2G, 50th – DD, 19th – GIR, 13th – Birdie Avg, 9th – Scoring Avg, 46th – Prox, 73rd – Rough Prox, 74th – Scrambling, 17th – Par Breakers, 15th – P3 Scoring, 32nd – P4 Scoring, 70th – P5 Scoring, 24th – P3 BoB, 28th – P4 BoB, 53rd – P5 BoB
• Other – It seems like it’s been ages since Charl’s win at the Valspar, but the finishes he’s turned in since have been nothing short of impressive. After announcing his club change the week of The Open Championship, I felt the need to reduce my Charl exposure as in most cases with professionals changing equipment we’ve seen a substantial regression in their game for the months following the change. Apparently Charl didn’t get this memo and decided he wanted to sniff the top of the leaderboard for most of the week and I’m still tending to the 2nd degree burns he left me with. I’m not going to let that influence my decision this week though, and will have exposure in cash and GPP’s as he statistical fit here seems to rank among the Top 10 this week.

Kevin Na (DK $6,700)
• Course History: N/A (2005) / MC – MC – N/A – N/A – 10th
• Form: 22nd – 27th – 7th – 74th
• Stats: 158th – SG:OTT, 9th – SG:APP, 45th – SG:ARG, 74th – SG:P, 47th – SG:T2G, 182nd – DD, 45th – DA, 98th – GIR, 33rd – Birdie Avg, 19th – Scoring Avg, 63rd – Prox, 46th – Rough Prox, 38th – Par Breakers, 72nd – P3 Scoring, 5th – P4 Scoring, 130th – P5 Scoring, 34th – P3 BoB, 10th – P4 BoB
• Other – Na’s been flying under the radar pretty much all year due to some injuries he had early on which may explain the reasoning behind his low price tag yet again this week. When DraftKings messes up prcing on a player who’s been playing this well we have to capitalize on the situation. I see no reason in avoiding Na for cash or GPP’s this week. Starting with Na opens up your remaining salary to go balanced with guys in the 8-9k range or to pick from the Top four and still not have to go dumpster diving.

ALSO CONSIDER – Justin Thomas (DK $7,200) – Thomas’ sophomore year has been a pretty good one in my opinion. He’s made the cut in four of his last five (only missed the cut at the Memorial) and seems to be enjoying playing in these major championships (T39 @ The Masters, T32 @ US Open, and T53 @ The Open Championship). Thomas’ birdie or better numbers have dipped a bit, but all it takes is one round for him to show us his true scoring upside. Not recommending for cash, but definitely in play for GPP’s this week. Jason Dufner (DK $7,100) – Since missing the cut at the Masters, Dufner has rattled off eight straight cuts made, half of which he’s finished in the Top 25 and of those, two have been Top 10’s. Now I’m not expecting another Top 10, but considering he’s a former PGA Championship winner and his game seems to be clicking, I don’t think he’s a guy I’d skip over when making my cash or GPP lineups this week. Steve Stricker (DK $7,000) – Stricker has gained the third most strokes on AWT desgined courses since 2005, and coming off his impressive performance at The Open Championship, I think his ownership might be a little higher than we’re used to, but its warranted. Stricker hasn’t played much golf this year having made 8 of 12 cuts, but half of those cuts made have come in the past two months. I’ll be rolling him out in cash and GPP’s this week as I think a lot of people will be scared away by that price tag considering they can get “more upside” in Justin Thomas for $200 more or for $100 less they can get Emiliano Grillo (someone who DFS regulars like to play in every major).

 

GPP PLAYS:

Henrik Stenson (DK $10,500)
• Course History: 47th (2005) / 25th – 3rd – 3rd
• Form: WIN – 13th – WIN – MC – 4th – MC – MC – 24th – 2nd – 3rd
• Stats: 18th – SG:OTT, 2nd – SG:APP, 174th – SG:ARG, 7th – SG:T2G, 152nd – SG:P, 67th – DD, 2nd – GIR, 4th – Birdie Avg, 12th – Scoring Avg, 1st – TD, 173rd – TDE, 166th – Prox, 124th – Rough Prox, 4th – Par Breakers, 42nd – P3 Scoring, 17th – P4 Scoring, 6th – P5 Scoring, 5th – P3 BoB, 51st – P4 BoB, 7th – P5 BoB
• Other – The thought here is that most people will think he can’t go back to back in majors and we should be playing an almost elite player at somewhat low ownership (at least I hope I’m right on this). I mentioned Stenson in my preview article for the Open Championship and in my blurb I mentioned he’s better at the PGA Championship venues than he is at Open Championships, so that’s the main reason behind this suggestion. I like him for both cash & GPP’s this week, lets cross our fingers on the low ownership portion.

Billy Horschel (DK $7,200)
• Course History: N/A (2005) / 25th – 58th – MC
• Form: MC – 32nd – 28th – 36th – 4th – 54th – 17th – 20th – 41st
• Stats: 17th – SG:OTT, 32nd – SG:APP, 160th – SG:ARG, 3st – SG:T2G, 64th – SG:P, 85th – DD, 87th – DA, 48th – Birdie Avg, 47th – Scoring Avg, 83rd – GIR, 58th – Total Driving, 68th – P4 Scoring, 119th – P5 Scoring, 17th – P4 BoB, 118th – P5 BoB
• Other – Everyone seems to have caught his massive ejection at the Open Championship (where he wore his hat backwards in some pretty tough conditions. This isn’t the first time he’s done it either, so maybe we should just expect this from him going forward. And for the record, I couldn’t care any less than I currently do about how Billy wears his hat. If he’s on my roster, I want him to play well.) I think since that’s the last time he teed it up, people will swerve off of him which means it’s the perfect spot to load up for GPP’s. Billy’s off the tee stats and putting are what drew me to him initially and his price and expected ownership is what’ll make him a core play for me this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Rickie Fowler (DK $9,200) – Rickie was around 8% owned at the Open Championship, which was about 5% less than expected. I know his form going into that tournament wasn’t the best (which explains the low ownership), but he didn’t play extremely great in Scotland to make me think his ownership will increase in any dramatic fashion. The fact that we can get a player of his caliber at low ownership and under $9,500 is what’s really driving my interest here. Let’s hope he starts strong and keeps it going through the weekend instead of waiting until Saturday to make a move. James Hahn (DK $6,000) – This is an ultimate deep flier pick on Hahn, but I think it has some merit. Since his win at the Wells Fargo he hasn’t missed a cut and has two Top 50’s. His scoring ability outside of his win is skeptical, but as long as he makes the cut he could be a super sneaky play and this course sets up well for his game. Gregory Bourdy (DK $5,800) – Bourdy has made 16 of 18 cuts this year (mainly on the European Tour) including four Top 10’s (T6 @ Lyoness Open, T10 @ Irish Open, T4 @ Perth and 2nd at the Dunhill Championship). His missed cut at the Scottish Open came as a bit of a surprise, but because of that we get him at a really good price. I really like the upside and roster flexibility his price tag brings to roster construction this week.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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