Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Omega Dubai Desert Classic (European Package)

OVERVIEW

Last year Danny Willett drained a clutch putt on the final hole to secure his victory and jump up in the Official World Golf Rankings (which helped identify the value we were presented with his Masters odds). In draining that putt he beat a surging Rafa Cabrera-Bello (yes he’s in the write-up this week…again) and that donkey Andy Sullivan (he’s a donkey because he ruined some really good lineups a couple weeks ago) as well as Rory (not in the field due to injury) and Henrik Stenson. If you haven’t noticed by now, this field is pretty strong by European Tour standards. The course will challenge all of the players this week on many different shots. The fairways aren’t extremely wide, feature many doglegs and water comes into play on over half of the holes. Since last year, the 12^th hole was lengthened by 10 yards, and the angle of the 18^th tee box was changed, outside of that there hasn’t been many changes. Winds could be an issue on the weekend, but outside of that the weather looks to be perfect. The back nine features three par 5’s, and the front only has two so if you’re looking for any kind of draw edge. I’d say looking at guys starting on the back nine on Thursday could give you some greener screens earlier in the day, but that might be a reach.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Emirates Golf Club
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,328 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
• Location: Dubai, United Arab Emirates
• Expected scoring: Assuming the winds kick up on the weekend as expected, we could see -16 being good enough this week. If not, I’d say -20 gets the job done. Obviously we’ll be targeting guys who rack up birdies this week regardless.   
• Past Champions:
• 2016: Danny Willett over Rafa Cabrera-Bello & Andy Sullivan [-18]
• 2015: Rory McIlroy over Alex Noren [-19]
• 2014: Stephen Gallacher -16 over Emiliano Grillo [-15]
• 2013: Stephen Gallacher -22 over Richard Sterne [-19]
• 2012: Rafa Cabrera-Bello -18 over Stephen Gallacher & Lee Westwood [-17]
• 2011: Alvaro Quiros -11 in a playoff over Lee Westwood

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Greens In Regulation, Driving Distance, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring
• Important – Course History, Current Form

STARS:

Henrik Stenson (DK $12,300)

• Course History: 6^th – 13^th – 29^th – 26^th – 20^th – MC – 8^th – 3^rd – 6^th – Win – 7^th – 22^nd  
• Form: 8^th – 2^nd
• Stats:14 – Scoring Avg, 76.40% – DA, 292.35 yards – DD, 77.78% GIR
• Other – Huge favorite, Stenson looks like he’s in perfect form to capitalize on a course that he’s had success at in the past. He hasn’t finished outside of the Top 10 in what seems like forever and I doubt that changes this week. He’ll be anchoring my cash & GPP teams this week for sure.

Bernd Wiesberger (DK $10,500)

• Course History: 16^th – 4^th – 9^th – 60^th – 24^th – MC
• Form: 37^th – 4^th
• Stats: 24 – Scoring Avg, 61.34% – DA, 293.02 yards – DD, 75.51% – GIR
• Other – Of course Wiesberger couldn’t follow up his 4^th place finish with another Top 10 last week. Which is exactly why I’m going back this week. I can’t seem to get him right, whether I’m a week early or a week late so I’m going with the “play him ‘til he pays off” method, but only in GPP’s.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,500)

• Course History: MC – 17^th – 20^th – 11^th – 19^th – MC
• Form: 11^th
• Stats:71 – Scoring Avg, 61.75% – DA, 306.56 yards – DD, 75.69% – GIR
• Other – As much as I’d like to say Sergio uses Rahm’s win as a motivator to play well this week, I’m not sure I can. His personal life seems to be in a good spot with his not so new girlfriend, and his game looked serviceable in his last event, but getting inside Sergio’s head is a difficult task. I’ll have him in GPP’s this week, but only because I’m a sucker for Sergio.

Lee Westwood (DK $9,400)

• Tournament History: MC – 9^th – 5^th – 2^nd – 15^th – 2^nd – 39^th – 10^th – 25^th – 28^th – 6^th
• Form: 8^th
• Stats:75 – Scoring Avg, 64.29% – DA, 307.25 yards – DD, 80.56% – GIR
• Other – Westy will be a chalk cash play this week, which is fine. He missed the cut last year in a chalk situation, but we’re moving forward based on how he played two weeks ago where he finished 8^th at Abu Dhabi. Westy is consistent in his play especially on the Euro Tour, so don’t try to get cut in fading him in either format.

ALSO CONSIDER – Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,200) predictably missed the cut last week and if you listened to my advice you faded him. This week we get back on board as his length will be an asset to his success. If Graeme Storm can get over the Win-MC streak, then Fleetwood should be able to improve on the Top 25 that Storm ended up with. Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,800) was very close in Abu Dhabi after leading for 54 holes and it looked like we were going to see another one of Jeff’s Crystal Ball features notch another victory, but Hatton gagged a bunch of strokes back finishing with a 75 leaving him outside of the Top 10. He’s got the game to make his presence known on Tour and I think he bounces back from that experience with a good showing this week, he just needs the putter to show up. Martin Kaymer (DK $8,600) is another core play this week with four Top 10’s at this event on a course that suits his game much better than last week. I’m not letting personal disappointment get in the way this week after finishing T48 last week.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

 Kiradech Aphibarnrat (DK $7,500)

• Course History: 61^st
• Form: 9^th – 4^th – 10^th
• Stats: 90 – Scoring Avg, 58.43% – DA, 292.34 yards – DD, 66.56% – GIR
• Other – Barnrat has been very sharp during the desert swing of the Euro Tour with two straight Top 10’s. His history here isn’t that of others, but you have to keep running with the hot hand in certain situations and this is one of them.

Robert Rock (DK $7,100)

• Tournament History: 33^rd – 9^th – 5^th – 7^th – 51^st – 20^th – 20^th
• Form: MC – MC
• Stats: 93 – Scoring Avg, 56.50% DA, 288.01 yards – DD, 70.03% GIR
• Other – Rock made the “No Hat” look famous at this event a few years ago when lapping a certain Tiger Woods led field through 36 holes. What you may not have known is how well he’s played here over his career. Lock him in for GPP’s this week as the last two missed cuts are a bit worry-some for cash games. If they don’t concern you, I have no issues with rolling him out in cash due to his course history.

ALSO CONSIDER – Thomas Aiken (DK $8,500) is far too cheap for how he’s been playing the past three months. He’s excellent with the long irons (and short) and a good putter (which is rare on the Euro Tour). He’s a core play for me this week. Thomas Pieters (DK $8,100) is long enough off the tee to get away with spraying the ball into the rough. I think he can overpower this course for the majority of the tournament, but his course history does concern me. He’s matured as a golfer over the past 12 months, so maybe we can see some better results to the tune of a Top 15. If you’re thinking is along those same lines, then he should see your rosters this week. Bradley Dredge (DK $7,700) is another hot hand that we’ll lean on as a core play this week having two consecutive Top 25’s to his name in as many weeks. I’m somewhat glad he didn’t go wire-to-wire last week as his price would’ve been much higher and he hasn’t shown us the consistency that we need in a player if he’s priced higher than he currently is. David Lingmerth (DK $7,000) continues to travel the globe to play golf and he keeps getting paid. The form is inching in the right direction as he’s improved on each of his starts this year. Hopefully he doesn’t go full Lingmerth this week and miss the cut as he’s known to do when running smoothly.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Paul Dunne (DK $6,800)

• Tournament History: No Course History
• Form: 21^st – 39^th – 29^th – 28^th
• Stats: 85 – Scoring Avg, 48.79% – DA, 288.63 yards – DD, 62.75% – GIR
• Other – You thought I’d leave off “The Other” Carlsson? Not a chance. Even though he missed the cut last year, he finished T13 in 2015 and T9 in 2014 so I’m chalking up his MC to a bad week as he clearly has the game to be successful here. Knocking off the rust from a long layoff to the tune of a 29^th place finish helps his case this week, but I don’t think I’d play either in cash games.

Peter Uihlein (DK $6,700)

• Tournament History: WD – 13^th – MC – MC
• Form: 49^th – 7^th – 14^th
• Stats: 74 – Scoring Avg, 52.05% – DA, 293.40 yards – DD, 62.38% – GIR
• Other – I bet Uihlein at this event last year and he withdrew before I could check to see where he was when I got to work so this play may have some bias behind it. He was a good bet last year and I think he’s a good bet this year too, for the same reasons. The form is good, his game is excellent and he’s going to do it one of these weeks so I’m going to make sure I recoup my Uihlein losses when he does.

ALSO CONSIDER – Nacho Elvira (DK $7,100) has missed the cut in both of his previous appearances, but has made his last five cuts. Finishing 6^th in Qatar was a bit of a surprise considering the field and his form leading up to that point, but at this price we’ll take anything inside the Top 30. Mike Lorenzo-Vera (DK $6,600) finished 4^th last week coming off a 57^th place finish in Abu Dhabi. As with Elvira, I’m not expecting the Top 5 again this week, but the form is good enough for my liking. The long hitting Frenchman should be able to get around this course with ease this week. David Drysdale (DK $6,600) continues to prove to me that he’s worth rostering even on courses that don’t fit his game. I’m fine with rolling him out as a punt for cash games and having some exposure if you need the relief in GPP’s.

 

GPP PLAYS

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $10,800): I’m going to permanently keep him in this section until he wins, and even then I don’t know if I can bare to remove him from this section. You know the deal with him à Birdies = DK Points. 2^nd here last year, Winner in 2012.

Jeunghun Wang (DK $9,300): His first two wins on the Euro Tour came in back to back weeks, so it’s not entirely out of the question for him to go back to back again. He looked really sharp last week so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him near the top of the leaderboard through 36.

Jaco Van Zyl (DK $6,900): Had a chance to really make a name for himself last week, but an amateurish chip shot cost him the regulation win which he then handed to Wang on a silver platter after three putting the playoff hole. I’m of positive thinking and think he’ll come out firing on Thursday which should set him up for a nice weekend and may be lower owned than he should be due to his poor course history – MC – 54^th – 71^st – MC.

Jordan Smith (DK $8,300) – The “kid” continues to roll. Long and accurate off the tee, accurate with his irons, and a good putter is exactly what we’re looking for in our value GPP plays. Smith is grooving it in all facets right now and we should continue to reap the benefits. Ownership levels weren’t where they should’ve been when he was middling in the $7,000-$7,500 range so I don’t expect people to pay up for him this week either.

Stephen Gallacher (DK $6,900): Not many have heard of him, but he’s been playing really well in his first four events on Tour this year to the tune of three Top 20’s (one Top 10) and is 4/4 in cuts made. Looking at his statistical breakdown provides proof as to why this is happening – 71.43% DA, 285.70 yards DD, 78.15% GIR, 30.27 Putts per round. I doubt he eclipses the 5% ownership mark this week.

Joakim Lagergren (DK $6,800) – Featured here last week and came through huge for us with a runner up finish. I’m not expecting a double this week, but this price is egregious for the talent that the Swede has. He’ll be a GPP core play of mine this week.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)