Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- OHL Classic at Mayakoba

Fantasy Golf Insider Staff
By Fantasy Golf Insider Staff November 10, 2015 08:42

Welcome  Team FGI to week four of the fall fantasy golf season.  This week I am writing my column from beautiful St Maarten, as I am on vacation with my family (although never really on vacation from FGI). I am currently looking out over the white sand beach and turquoise blue water as the sun starts to set over another beautiful 85 degree and sunny day. Every year I take 11 days and travel with my entire family, wife, three kids (ages 1,3,5), parents, and sister and stay in a villa that sits right on our own private beach. It is the 11 days a year that I truly relax as the other 354 I am grinding hard. Between juggling my businesses and kids, plus watching every golf shot that is broadcast (either live or on DVR) and following every shot on shot-tracker, I get pretty bound up. Every day here in St Maarten, my biggest decisions are whether to go with my kids to the pool, swim in the ocean, or build sandcastles. Cocktail hour or should I say cocktail 3 hours starts everyday about 2:00, I never wear anything but flip-flops, and my stress level drops significantly. The only thing that might be stressed here is my liver, but something has to give. If you have not traveled to St Maarten, I would highly encourage you to come and I can recommend the wonderful villa we stay in that is super inexpensive during the “off-season”, which it is right now. The reason I mention all of this is not to rub it in your nose if you live in a place with crummy weather like we have at home, but rather to encourage you to take a vacation if you have not in a while. We all get busy with family and work and sometimes overlook getting away from the daily grind. Let’s face it life is not easy. I remember reading research that said vacations are not only necessary for your health, but can actually help you at work or with your business. How can it help your work/business by being away from it? Well it not only helps recharge your battery making you more productive at work, but when you escape from the daily grind it actually helps your mind spawn new, innovative ideas. I can completely attest to this as some of my best ideas for my businesses have come while I was away from them. The vision of Fantasy Golf Insider was actually originated when I was on a vacation here. I sketched the original business plan as I sat right here overlooking the ocean with the mountains in the background. The beach isn’t everybody’s thing, but go to where you find peace and relaxation, whether it is the mountains, the woods, the lake, the snow, wherever; the point is that you escape the daily grind and allow your mind to rest. Plus, do it for more than two days, other research has said that you need a week away from work to experience true rest. If your boss says no, let me know and I can see if I can find that research that I read that explains why it will make you better and more productive at your job and I can send it to you. Now onto golf.

The recommendations had some highs and lows last week, but definitely not up to our standards and was our only not great week this fall. Some of the highlights included: Our boy, who we told you to watch out for Matthew Fitzpatrick delivered a T7 and one of the few to receive bonus points on Draftkings for having all four rounds under 70. Do not forget this name, actually don’t worry we will remind you when other WGC and majors come around because he is a big time talent and it is safe to say that most people aren’t aware of it because he was only owned by 7% of the field in the $3 event on Draftkings. I would venture to say a good share of those were FGI members. Thomas Pieters was a nice sleeper play as he well outperformed his price and how about another one of our sleepers K.T. Kim who finished T27, but more importantly amassed 99.5 points on Draftkings, which actually ranked him in the top 11 in scoring. Rory McIlroy’s T11, Ian Poulter’s T30, and Justin Thomas’s T27 were not disasters, but all under-performed their costs. On to the disapointments: Adam Scott, all I can say is what the hell happened. I did not see any coverage of him and shot-tracker obviously was not available, so all I have is his scorecard and it is disgusting. It appeared that he had regained some of his solid form the two weeks prior, but clearly his issues are not gone. We need to be careful with him until we see an extended stretch of positive things in the coming year. I said in my preview that both Bubba Watson and Kevin Na looked like solid plays for obvious reasons, but that I would be underweight on both. Well, I sure am glad we went that direction, because neither played well and since they were heavily owned in all contests across the board, they took down a lot of lineups with them. A couple of the biggest disappointments in my opinion were Martin Kaymer and Anirban Lahiri. Yes, Kaymer did throw up a nine on a par 5, which is nearly impossible to recover from in an event like this. If he birdies that hole, like he should, he finishes Top 20 instead of T30. Still, I felt like he would perform better in this event and I recommended him as a top value play and for that I apologize. This week I am excited because we go back to a full-field cut event in which we have a much larger edge over the field than these small field no-cut events. We will continue to work hard to give you the best information available anywhere and we will close out this fall season strong in the next couple of weeks.

I will not be doing the webcast with Zachary this week, but will be back for the RSM Classic next week.  We have lined up a guest to fill in for me, I hope he does not do so well, that you guys won’t want me back. This week  our focus heads to The OHL Classic at Mayakoba at El Camaleon Golf Course in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. El Camaleon is a Par 71 and measures 6,987 yards, which is a shorter track then most on the PGA Tour. During the course of the tournament you will hear about hazards such as the Mangroves, which are bunches of a tropical trees that have roots which grow from its branches and that grows in swamps or shallow salt water. Also, Selva which is the dense forest areas characterized by tall broad-leaved evergreen trees. There are also several holes that run along the white sand coastline.

The best part about the OHL Classic is that we go back to having a full-field and a cut this week. This helps all of you FGIers because it punishes really poor player selections much worse than in a small field, no-cut event. Somebody who rosters a player that finishes dead last in a non-cut event can still finish well into the money. This does not happen in a cut event. The field this week is frankly not very good, but it does contain most of the guys we recommended as sleepers to look out for in the fall and you will see several of them mentioned as recommendations below. So far this fall they have performed very well, so I let’s continue to ride them to profitablility.  There might be some withdrawals from players this week due to the delayed Sanderson Farms event, so keep your eyes and ears open.  We will try to get an email sent out if we hear anything last minute.

Three of the main statistics that we will focus on include strokes gained tee-to-green, Par 4 scoring, and greens in regulation. One interesting item I have found in researching which statistics will be key this week, is that Par 3 scoring is a strong determinant in success, which is not that common. Last year of the top 20 finishers, only one player finished above par on par 3s (Will Mackenzie). The best on par 3s was Nicholas Thompson at -8 who finished T9. Runner-up Shawn Stefani finished second best on par 3s at -5 and winner, Charley Hoffman finished at -3. In 2013 everybody finishing in the Top 10 was -1 or better on Par 3s with winner of the tournament Harris English finishing best on Par 3s at -9. The reason the Par 3s are more critical than usual is that there are three short Par 3s. One is 200 yards, two are 150 yards, and one is 116 yards, which is birdied 30% of the time. Both Par 3 scoring and Proximity to the Hole are going to be important this week. Putting is an interesting statistic this week. In 2013 of the Top 12 putters in the field, ten of them finished in the Top 15 in the standings (7 in top 10) with the winner Harris English finishing as the 5th best putter. Last year however, of the 16 best putters, half of them finished in the Top 15 in the standings with the winner Charley Hoffman finishing as the 34th best putter and the next three best finishers finishing as the 11th, 11th, and 58th best putters, so putting was not that indicative of success. For this reason we will take strokes gained putting into consideration as a key statistic, but we will not be putting a ton of weight on it.

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Since the 2014-2015 season is a couple months in the past and there is too small of a sample size for 2015-2016, we will not be listing statistics this week as most are not relevant.

Also, Draftkings was slow as ever getting out their prices, so my recommendations do not reflect the exact pricing, although I am pretty accurate on my forecasting.  I did not want to wait to get this out to all of you any longer.  I will probably make some changes once the pricing comes out.

Top Stud Picks:

 

Jason Bohn- I just really like Jason Bohn and the way he is playing right now. He is far from a young guy, but he has found something in his game that has made him a contender in every tournament he plays right now. So far this fall he has a T3 at Frys.com, T2 at Shriners, and T39 at Sanderson Farms. He has also had some success at El Camaleon in the past with a 19th in 2011, 3rd in 2013, and 7th last year. Thus far after three events he is dominating every key statistical category we are looking at this week including strokes gained tee-to-green, greens in regulation, birdie average, par 4 scoring, and par 3 scoring, to name a few. His play has obviously attracted some attention so his ownership will most likely be on the high side. Still I am not sure if this is the guy you want to fade right now. (GPP and Cash Games although price is on the high side for cash games)

 

Harris English- A decent T23 finish for English last week at the WGC. Now that we go back to having a cut-event, English becomes more valuable. English has made the cut in each of his last 15 events played, which is gold for cash games in DFS. In his two appearances in this event, English has a win in 2013 and a 37th last year. The downside for English and especially at his price this week is his lack of ability to crack the Top 10. In order to pay off his price this week he would need to be in the Top 10 and that just has not happened much over the past year. (Great for Cash Games, but can be used in GPPs as well)

 

Brendan Steele- In week one of the fall season I recommended Steele highly and loaded up on him in GPPs and cash games myself. He led the event most of the way, but absolutely collapsed on Sunday and ended with a T17. Then, week 2 I liked him as well and actually chose him in my King of The Hill contest and he proceeded to shit the bed and embarrassingly miss the cut. Week 3, I was not as high on him and was underweight and he turned out a T3. So the fact that I like him this week worries me. In all seriousness, Steele looks to be a great play this week. He is a normally an automatic cut-maker (20 of 24 last year), he has a ton of upside (11 Top 25s last year and 2 so far this year), and he has played relatively well at this tournament in the past with 37th last year and 16th the year before. (GPP and Cash Games)

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Patrick Rodgers- This guy is freaking good ladies and gentleman and we have been telling you that for a while including writing him up as one of my sleepers to watch this fall season. So far this fall he has a T6 at Frys.com, T13 at Shriners, and aT20 last week at Sanderson Farms. So far through three events he ranks 10th in strokes gained tee-to-green. Rodgers took 37th here last year. I feel as though this 23 year old is one of the best young golfers playing right now and I think he will win an event in the very near future. He does not yet have the household name of some of the other young players like Thomas, Finau, or Berger, but mark my words, he will. (GPP and Cash Games)

 

Charles Howell III- CHIII has worked himself back into being one of my favorite cash game players. After a bout of inconsistency last year, which forced me to lay off, he has now made 10 consecutive cuts. Some of those have even been relatively high finishes including a T11 at Quicken Loans, T17 at Frys.com, and T10 at CIMB Classic. Howell missed the cut here last year, but prior to that had a string of several nice finishes including a 6th in 2013, 16th in 2012, 13th in 2011, and 20th in 2010. He is an outstanding cash game play in DFS, but generally has limited upside for large field GPPs. (Mostly Cash Games)

 

Patton Kizzire- We listed Kizzire as one of our 10 Sleepers to Watch in the Fall Season as so far he has not disappointed. In the two events that he has played he has delivered a T2 at Shriners and T4 at Sanderson Farms. Not to mention he closed out the Web.com Championship with a T5. This will obviously be his first appearance in the OHL Classic, but I think he is such a talented young player who is undervalued, that we can include him on cash games and GPPs this week. (GPPs and Cash Games)

 

Smylie Kaufman- There is nothing not to like about Kaufman this week as so far this fall he has a T10 at Frys.com, a win at Shriners, and a T54 last week at Sanderson Farms. This will be his first appearance here. As you would expect he ranks near the top of a lot of statistical categories thus far this fall including strokes gained tee-to-green and greens in regulation. Look for the young guys to continue to play well this fall, just as we predicted and include Kaufman in the group of guys to look at rostering each week. (GPP and Cash Games)

 

Chris Stroud- A surefire horse for this course, Stroud has made the cut here in his last seven appearances of which include three Top 5s (2011-2013). Last year he took 23rd. I like what I am seeing out of Stroud so far this fall as opposed to his brutal end to last season. He has a 2nd at Alfred Dunhill, a T10 at Frys.com, and T38 at Shriners. This looks to be a decent GPP play at an affordable price. (Mostly GPP, some cash)

 

Carlos Ortiz- A hometown boy, well actually not really. Ortiz is from Mexico, but he is actually from Guadalajara, which is about 1,300 miles away from Playa del Carmen. But he is Mexican damn it and he wants to play well in front of his countrymen. He showed that last year in his first appearance in this event taking 9th. He is a young guy, only 24 years old and coming into his third year as a professional. In a cut event he becomes valuable as he has made the cut in his last 7 out of 8 events. None of those has been a sparkling finish with his best being a T24 at the Barclays. So far this fall he has a T32 at Frys and T47 at the CIMB Classic. He is giving you a solid cut-maker and one that will be inspired this week. (GPP and Cash Games)

 

Roberto Castro- Another one of my sleepers to watch this fall season that I like a lot and especially this week. In his first three fall events he has a T69 at Frys.com, T43 at Shriners, and T4 last week at Sanderson Farms although he led after two rounds. His ownership has been 1% in each of his appearances. He did have an appearance at the OHL Classic in 2012 when he missed the cut. (Mostly GPPs)

 

Brendon de Jonge- Every once in a while, the oversized Zimbabwean shows us something that makes us think he can contend for wins on the PGA Tour. Than faster than a cream pie disappears from his plate, he plummets in the standings as gives us a T69. In his two events played this fall he has a T27 at the CIMB Classic and T13 at Shriners. Last year De Jonge played well in the fall as well and this might be a good spot to nab him for a cheap price on some of your GPP teams. He hasn’t played here in a while, but when he did he played well with a 40th in 2010, 15th in 2009, and 9th in 2007. He does have some upside as he had three Top 10s last season, but he is very inconsistent. I just have a decent feeling about him this week and think it might pay off to dabble with him on some of your rosters. (GPP only)

 

Johnson Wagner- For a stretch last season Wagner was very good and his price crept up and then he remembered he was Johnson Wagner and started missing cuts again. This fall he has been ok, but not great with finishes of T48 at Frys.com and T15 at Sanderson Farms. His price however is inexpensive and I fell like he can give us a cut made with a chance for a Top 20. We know he can perform here because he won this event in 2011 and also has a 30th in 2012 and 16 last year (MC in 2013). The talent pool this week is clearly low and Wagner is one of the better of the bad, if that makes sense. (GPP and Cash games)

 

Addition 11/11/15

Jason Kokrak-  I do not often do this, but this week since the salaries came out so late, I did not have as long to mull them over.  Upon further review, I think Jason Kokrak at $7,900 is a really good value.  In his last two starts he has a T38 and T12.  That in addition to the fact that he took 16th here last year.  He will not be owned by many people, which makes him a decent GPP play, but his price makes him attractive for cash games.  (GPP and Cash Games)

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Jamie Lovemark- I just feel like this guy is going to have a real break out at some point this season, I just wish I knew exactly when. After a great stretch run in the Web.com playoffs including a T6, T2, and T35, he has posted a T48 at Frys.com, T13 at Shriners, but MC last week at Sanderson Farms. He has one appearance at OHL Classic in 2013 when he took 65th. At his price, I believe he will return value this week, which makes him good for cash games, and he most likely will not be owned much as his ownership was 3% at the Frys.com and 4% for the Shriners, which makes him a great GPP play. (GPP and Cash Games)

 

Chez Reavie- I have recommended Chez in both events he has played thus far this fall season and he has made the cut in each. He finished T17 at Frys.com and T67 at Shriners. This after a blistering finish to his Web.com Tour play where he recorded a win, a runner-up, a T10, and T20. His price on Draftkings is inexpensive, which makes him a viable cash game and GPP play. I listed Reavie as one of my top sleepers to watch this fall and I look for him to continue to play well in the last couple of events this fall.

 

Brett Stegmaier- Not a young guy, Stegmaier has been kicking around since 2006, but recently has shown some rapid improvement. He closed out the Web.com season with a 7th, 8th, and 5th place finish, plus a T18 in the championship. Thus far on the PGA Tour this season he has made all three cuts in the events he has played and has finished T74 at Frys.com, T2 at Shriners, and T15 last week at Sanderson Farms. This will be one of those guys that very few people own this week, but has a chance to end toward the top 30, which would pay off his price this week.

 

Deep Sleeper:

 

Oscar Fraustro- Not a guy that I would pin my hopes to on many teams, but if you are looking for a full blown stars and scrubs type lineup this guy could fill the scrub spot. He is another Mexican golfer and has played in this event three times, the first missing the cut in 2012, then taking 49th in 2013, and then an impressive 9th place finish last year. In his last two starts he has a T4 on the South American Tour at the Mundo Maya Open and a T12 at the Web.com Tour Championship. Plus he had a T26 at the Wyndham and T22 in the last two PGA Tour events he has played. He might be worth a flyer on a team or two in large field GPPs, because nobody will own him. (GPP only)

 

As always best of luck, let’s keep the winning going, and always be sure to keep us updated so we can send good Karma your way!

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Fantasy Golf Insider Staff
By Fantasy Golf Insider Staff November 10, 2015 08:42

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