Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview – OHL Classic

OVERVIEW
Last week may have been a preview of things to come with old timer Rod Pampling (one of the extra participants that was in the field due to the clerical error) defeating our beloved Brooks on the final hole of the Shriners. Congrats to the Aussie (also, note to self for 2017: Aussies play well in Vegas). This week we move south of the border where the greens are made up of a salt tolerant grass known as Seashore Paspalum. The course is a resort course and doesn’t look to pose too much of a challenge to the best in the world (or a small percentage of the best in the world), it’s fairly short and the greens are easy to hit (I’ll be putting this claim to the test in March of 2017 and will let you know if it’s as easy as they say it is) and as always we want birdie makers. One item of note is that outside of English in 2014, older players have fared well here for whatever reason. Just something to keep in mind when trying to decide between player A and player B.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• El Camaleon
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,039 yards
• Greens: Seashore Paspalum
o Location: Playa Del Carmen, Mexico
o Expected scoring: Previous winners have gone fairly low over the past five years and there’s really nothing to make me think the course will play any tougher this week. I assume we’ll see the winner better than 20 under again this week.

o Past Champions (dating back to 2011):
• 2016: Graeme McDowell -18 over Jason Bohn & Russell Knox in a playoff
• 2015: Charley Hoffman -17 over Shawn Stefani [-16]
• 2014: Harris English -21 over Brian Stuard [-17]
• 2012: John Huh -13 over Robert Allenby in a playoff
• 2011: Johnson Wagner -17 over Spencer Levin in a playoff
• 2010: Cameron Beckman -15 over Brian Stuard & Joe Durant [-13]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG:T2G, SG:P, P4 Birdie Or Better
o Important – SG:APP, Driving Distance, Prox from 150-175

THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS

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STARS

Russell Knox (DK $11,800)
• Course History: 2nd – 37th – 31st – 30th
• Form: 9th – 10th
• Stats: 44th – SG:APP, 107th – SG:P, 43rd – SG:T2G, 137th – DD, 58th – Birdie Avg, 28th – Scrambling, 96th – App from 150-175 yards, 56th – P4 BoB%
• Other – Starting at the top I really like Knox and his ball striking ability. He’s even shown us in the past two events that he has the upside to pay off a salary this high, so with that being said I’m more than happy starting out cash lineups with him as long as I can stomach the rest of my lineup. He was one hole away from winning this dang tournament last year and you’d have to think he’d like to get this one back if he can. I think it goes without saying he’s also in play for GPP’s this week.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $11,200)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 11th – 17th – 26th
• Stats: 64th – SG:APP, 108th – SG:P, 48th – SG:T2G, 67th – DD, 26th – Birdie Avg, 23rd – Prox from 150-175 yards, 156th – Scrambling, 24th – P4 BoB%
• Other – Grillo is Argentinian so there’s probably some kind of correlation to golf courses in Argentina & Mexico. Either way, I love rostering him every week he plays and even though this is the most expensive we’ve seen him in recent memory, I think he too is worth the price of admission. Grillo is a better putter than Knox but possesses a strong tee to green game and can light up the birdie board. If I’m making three cash lineups this week, one starts with Knox and the 2nd starts with Grillo. He too should be considered for GPP’s.

Jim Furyk (DK $10,200)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: N/A
• Stats: N/A – Didn’t qualify for stats last year due to sitting out from injury
• Other – I got through writing up two plays before suggesting an old man. Senor Cincuenta-Ocho (Mr. 58 to those of you that don’t hablo espanol) tees it up for the first time in Mexico, which is strange considering how old he is, but then again, maybe Sybi Kuchar told Tabitha how luxurious the amenities are at the resort and she talked Jimmy into signing up. Anyways, Furyk is a ball striker who hits a ton of greens and as we saw during his famous 58, when he gets hot with the putter he can go LOOOOOOW. If you don’t want to pay up for Grillo or Knox in cash games Furyk is your guy; he won’t be grinding out pars this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jeez, what is the world coming to when I’m writing up Keegan Bradley (DK $10,000) One thing we’ve always known about Keegan is his strong tee to green game and his horrible putting. This year he’s got back to back Top 7’s and has shot a combined 31 under par in those events. That’s insane for Keegan Bradley, what’s even more insane is that he hasn’t won either of those events. I can’t write more on him, but if I could I’d say he’s done a very good job minimizing mistakes lately and that’s another reason why he’s in play this week (puke). Another old man (geez, again with the old guys) Scott Piercy (DK $9,800) has been making a nice run during these fall events with four Top 25’s including two Top 10’s. His history here may scare some away, but I think Piercy’s in a much better place golf-wise than he was back in the early 2000’s when he was missing cuts. Harris English (DK $9,500) knows how to make cuts and this week we’re going to have to pay for that security. Last year he roasted my lineups by missing the cut, but I think he bounces back this week following his T4 last week. English looked like he was back in control of his driver and putting well last week and I’m of the thinking that it’ll carry over to a course where he’s won in the past three years.

VALUE PLAYS

Charles Howell III (DK $7,500)
• Tournament History: 17th – MC – 6th – 16th – 13th – 20th – 38th
• Form: 15th – 39th – MC
• Stats: 99th – SG:APP, 72nd – SG:P, 47th – SG:T2G, 17th – DD, 21st – Birdie Avg, 125th – Prox from 150-175 yards, 44th – Scrambling, 45th – P4 BoB%
• Other – CH3 makes a living during this time of year, and yes I know he makes a living during all seasons, but what I mean by that is he really earns most of his career earnings during the fall series when no one else is playing. Lock him in as your first value cash play this week and move on as he’s only missed one cut and provides a solid floor in regards to finishing position.

Kevin Streelman (DK $8,200)
• Tournament History: 34th – 3rd – 28th
• Form: 61st – 18th – MC
• Stats: 70th – SG:APP, 167th – SG:P, 63rd – SG:T2G, 104th – DD, 82nd – Birdie Avg, 48th – Prox from 150-175 yards, 174th – Scrambling, 123rd – P4 BoB%
• Other – I’m putting Streels below CH3 because he’s not as good of a value considering price, however, he’s still a massive value in this field at $8,200. Last week Streels had two little hiccups and that’s what cost him a shot at getting us a finishing place bonus. I don’t think that happens again and I also don’t think he shoots a round over par this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Luke List (DK $7,800), Jason Bohn (DK $7,600), and Hudson Swafford (DK $7,500) all need to be in your player pool list this week. List has been crushing it so far in the fall series with three finishes of Top 26 or better in the last month and is currently ranked 14th in SG:T2G (not much of a sample size yet, but he’s gaining more strokes in this area so far than he did last year). Jason Bohn is a horse for the course this week with three straight Top 7’s including a runner up finish last year and a third place finish two years prior. This year he’s been on the 2nd and 3rd pages of the leaderboard, but when a guy comes in with this good of course history and hasn’t been complete trash leading up to the event, you have to consider him. Swafford does Swafford things every week. If you were to plot his finishes on a graph it’d look like a roller coaster. He’s got a semi high floor so he’s fine for cash, but his ceiling is what I’m more interested in this week and therefore he’ll be in about 20% of my GPP lineups.

DEEP DIVERS

Charley Hoffman (DK $6,900)
• Tournament History: MC – WIN – 31st – 69th
• Form: MC – MC
• Stats: 75th – SG:APP, 105th – SG:P, 41st – SG:T2G, 36th – DD, 129th – Birdie Avg, 106th – Prox from 150-175 yards, 111th – Scrambling, 140th – P4 BoB%
• Other – I know his form has been bad so far, but it’s Uncle Charley we’re talking about here. You know the deal, play him from now until the Masters and never again with a strong emphasis on the Texas swing. At this price you’d be silly to fade a former defending champion especially in GPP’s. If you don’t want to stomach him in cash that’s totally understandable – last years (and this years) stats primarily support the fade for cash purposes.

Camilo Villegas (DK $6,500)
• Course History: 29th – MC – 36th
• Form: 26th
• Stats: 101st – SG:APP, 52nd – SG:P, 166th – SG:T2G, 127th – DD, 140th – Birdie Avg, 114th – Prox from 150-175 yards, 73rd – Scrambling, 142nd – P4 BoB%
• Other – Spidey is back in my good graces and comes in at a very nice price this week. Villegas is playing well, earning paychecks and getting closer to getting rid of any kind of IBS he got last year after failing to retain his tour card. The main thing that sticks out with Villegas is his tee to green game so far in the fall series where he ranks 31st (only 4 rounds measured), but I think he, like Grillo, may have some correlation with this course compared to courses they play in their homeland.

Scott Stallings (DK $6,200)
• Tournament History: MC – MC – MC
• Form: MC – MC – MC
• Stats: 71st – SG:APP, 157th – SG:P, 62nd – SG:T2G, 50th – DD, 115th – Birdie Avg, 45th – Prox from 150-175 yards, 103rd – Scrambling, 127th – P4 BoB%
• Other – This suggestion is contingent on whether or not he and Harris English are paired up for the first two rounds. If they are, play them both in a lineup together as they happen to feed off of playing each other (this has been noted on several occasions on Twitter by myself and BHax2, possibly someone else as well). English & Stallings have a special kind of history together. English beat Stallings in 2013 at the FedEx St. Jude by two strokes, they both were in the playoff with Jason Day at the 2015 Farmers Insurance (Day ended up winning) and I’m sure they saw their fair share of each other in college matches. Again, this is all contingent upon a first round pairing. If not, avoid Stallings this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Seung-Yul Noh (DK $6,800) & Sung Kang (DK $6,600) both get overlooked in cash and GPP’s and its laughable considering how good these guys are. SYN has made three of three cuts here, and three of three cuts during the falls series with a low finish of 8th. Kang has also made all three cuts at Mayakoba, but has only made one of three this year where he took 21st at the CIMB. I’d probably resort to Kang in GPP’s only because of that last little nugget though. Both rank highly in the tee to green statistics this season. Fabian Gomez (DK $6,600) has made the cut in both appearances here (23rd in 2015, 50th in 2012) and continues to get overlooked every week because he’s not flashy and doesn’t get much air time (currently ranks 34th in SG:T2G).

GPP PLAYS

Jon Rahm (DK $9,800)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 15th
• Stats: Didn’t qualify for stat tracking in 2016
• Other – Rahm was anywhere from 25% to 60% owned depending on the contest type last week and I think that number goes up again this week considering he faltered a bit last week and still finished 15th combined with his 10th place finish when most of DFS didn’t know who he was. Rahm is on the verge of putting it all together one of these weeks and I want to be a part of it when he does. I’ll have exposure to him in both cash & GPP’s this week, but will definitely be overweight on him in GPP’s.

Johnson Wagner (DK $8,400)
• Course History: 8th – 16th – MC – 30th – WIN
• Form: MC – 3rd
• Stats: 68th – SG:APP, 42nd – SG:P, 98th – SG:T2G, 101st – DD, 69th – Birdie Avg, 70th – Prox from 150-175 yards, 109th – Scrambling, 37th – P4 BoB%
• Other – I’m sure if Stat Guy is reading this, he’s enjoying seeing his favorite golfer under the spotlight of the preview article. He’s no longer a man known only by his mustache (as he no longer sports the monstrosity of awesomeness above his upper lip), but a man known by most as “the guy you want to play but can’t stomach rostering only to be upset that you didn’t roster him come Sunday”. Yeah, every time it looks like it’s a good time to play him I struggle to get him into my lineups and he does good things for other people. Don’t be like me, play Johnson Wagner (I can definitely stomach playing him at this price this week).

ALSO CONSIDER – Si Woo Kim (DK $8,900) is finally getting recognized by DraftKings/”Vegas” as a good player, but I doubt DFS players will want to roster him at this price considering they ignore him when he’s priced $2,000 cheaper. Si Woo is a rock solid putter and a strong tee to green game. Derek Fathauer (DK $8,300) isn’t a guy I normally write up, so that should be an indicator of what I think about him this week as well as the fact that he’s almost as expensive as guys like Woodland and Leishman (guys I normally write up). Fathauer finished 4th here last year and finished 3rd at the CIMB (an event that I believe has some correlation to this one). I wouldn’t go super heavy on him like Rahm, but 10-15% should be plenty to be considered overweight on this goofy looking son of a B. Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,200) is leading the Tour in SG:T2G and is also priced up this week compared to where he’s normally at. Vegas has the upside we’re looking for as he tends to pop up and win tournaments out of nowhere or he’ll miss the cut by five strokes.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

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