Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview – Nedbank Golf Challenge

OVERVIEW

This is the 2nd leg of the Race to Dubai, another no cut event with an even smaller field than last week. This week we get to play in Gary Player’s backyard (literally, well maybe not literally). Originally this course was host to “The Million Dollar Challenge” where the defending champion, the Sunshine Tour winner, four major winners and the top players in the official world golf rankings played an event for anywhere from $2MM to $5MM. Since 2013, the Gary Player Country Club has been host to this event so there is some course history to go off of for a select few players as not all of them have made it this far into the playoffs before, so when building rosters this week I think it’ll be imperative to start with guys who have success here with some South Africans as they tend to know the lay of the land a bit more than others.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• Gary Player CC
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,831
• Greens: Bentgrass
o Location: Sun City, North West Province – South Africa
o Expected scoring: Looks like it should be a fairly low scoring week, I’m going to estimate 21 under gets it done this week.
o Past Champions:
• 2015: Marc Leishman -19 over Henrik Stenson [-13]
• 2014: Danny Willett -18 over Ross Fisher [-14]
• 2013: Thomas Bjorn -20 over Jamie Donaldson & Sergio Garcia [-18]

KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – Greens in Regulation, Driving Distance, Ball Striking, Putts per GIR
o Important – Course History, Current Form, Scrambling, Player nationality (South Africans & Danish players feeing off of Oelsen’s win last week)

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THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS

STARS:

Henrik Stenson (DK $12,600)
• Course History: 2nd – 4th – 2nd – WIN – 4th – 2nd
• Form: 2nd
• Stats: 69.04 – Scoring Avg, 77.32% – DA, 289.09 yards – DD, 78.17% – GIR
• Other – Stenson is not one to fade here which is highlighted by his record of two Top 4’s (since they changed it to an official event). The win in 2008 shows more signs of comfort here, but in a 12 man field it means a lot less in the grand scheme of things. Stenson has length off the tee, ball striking from the fairway and is a really good putter, he’s got the course history and the form with a 2nd two weeks ago – I think he’s worth every dollar this week.

Branden Grace (DK $9,200)
• Course History: 4th – 20th
• Form: 30th – 33rd – 34th – MC
• Stats: 70.76 – Scoring Avg, 50.12% – DA, 296.37 yards – DD, 69.81% – GIR
• Other – South African Branden Grace hasn’t been playing great as of late, but I think a trip back home this week will be good for his game. Grace was a bit of an unknown last year and struggled during parts of last year after playing well in a couple majors. The same thing can be said for this year as he’s struggled as of late after playing very well at half of the majors and a few select events during the spring. I like him as the first of my GPP pairings with Stenson this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Martin Kaymer (DK $10,100) would be my guy to fade this week. Since changing from the 12 man format, he hasn’t finished inside the Top 10 and he hasn’t done much since the Ryder Cup to make me think he’ll pop out as a birdie maker this week. Charl Schwartzel (DK $9,900) is priced appropriately for cash games and is solid in general and has also used this event as a jump starter for the following season. It’s pretty obvious he enjoys playing here in front of his home-town crowd with three Top 15’s in the last three years, best finish was 6th in 2013. Ross Fisher (DK $9,300) is another one of those guys that has ample amount of course history here even outside the last three years, hes finished in the Top 5 in three of his last four tries here.

VALUE PLAYS

Thongchai Jaidee (DK $8,500)
• Tournament History: 9th – 7th – 9th
• Form: 17th – 30th – 22nd – 8th – 9th
• Stats: 70.71 – Scoring Avg, 60.36% – DA, 281.24 yards – DD, 68.67% – GIR
• Other – Thongchai is still reaping the good karma for bowing out a couple weeks ago and has been grooving it on the links as well. Last week he opened with two rounds in the sixties, and unfortunately for those that played him, he didn’t do much to help himself on the weekend – but he didn’t do much to hurt himself either. Jaidee is in prime position to make a move to next week with a good showing here and I think he makes for a solid cash and GPP play this week.

Danny Willett (DK $8,300)
• Course History: 4th – WIN
• Form: 75th – MC
• Stats: 70.85 – Scoring Avg, 57.08% – DA, 288.76 yards – DD, 71.16% – GIR
Other – Willett hasn’t exactly done anything to make me think he’s anywhere near the player he was in April of this year – when he won the Masters. He has the stats to back up the recommendation to play him but for whatever reason (even seven months later) he still seems out of his element on the course. It might be scary to fade a player with his resume at this course, but I think that’s the right play this week. The price discount this week makes me assume he’ll be fairly highly owned so if you want to play the chalk feel free, but I won’t be.

Richard Bland (DK $7,600)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 17th – 30th – 4th – 18th – 7th – 5th – 16th – 5th – 27th
• Stats: 71.34 – Scoring Avg, 60.26% – DA, 290.16 yards – DD, 65.69% – GIR
• Other – Bland makes my job easier every week and I’m going to continue to use this space for his name until he’s no longer in the Race to Dubai (or not playing). As mentioned last week, he loses value in no cut events, but last week he was in the 9k range and still provided plenty of value. He’ll continue to be a part of my core plays until he’s no longer an option as he provides safety in an unsafe Euro Tour and doesn’t give a ton of shots back. The price break we’re getting on him this week is too good to pass up.

ALSO CONSIDER – Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,800) is in play for cash and GPP’s this week as there’s no cut and we won’t need to worry about any kind of neck/back/bed issues for Louis since he’ll probably be sleeping in his own bed in South Africa and even if he isn’t there’s no way he withdraws and disappoints the host Gary Player. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (DK $7,800) is a bomber of the ball and quite the ball striker as well. Barn Rat finished 16th here last year, 5th the year before and has three Top 25 finishes in his last two events. Padraig Harrington (DK $6,900) shot three consecutive rounds of 69 in Turkey so something definitely clicked after the opening round of 72. Paddy is a guy I’m not fond of, so there’s a personal bias there, but I am willing to put that aside for the subs and recommend him when I see fit. He should be a solid play in all formats this week.

DEEP DIVERS

Matteo Manassero (DK $6,800)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 17th – MC – 49th – MC – MC – MC
• Stats: 71.75 – Scoring Avg, 60.82% – DA, 282.75 yards – DD, 73.59% – GIR
• Other – Matteo was highlighted in this section last week and gets the nod again in South Africa. I expect slightly higher ownership after his 17th place finish, which would’ve been better had he not shot 74 on Sunday.

David Drysdale (DK $6,700)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 44th – 47th – 39th – 59th – MC – 12th – 44th
• Stats: 71.40 – Scoring Avg, 71.06% DA, 279.70 yards – DD, 74.14% GIR
• Other – I really don’t know what else to say about Drysdale that I haven’t said the past three weeks. Last week he showed some more of that upside that we saw a few months ago, so the question is will he repeat again this week. I personally don’t think so, but you need to have someone in his price range in order to fit the studs so I’m fine going back to him this week.

Raphael Jacquelin (DK $6,500)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 17th – 22nd – 49th – MC – 36th – MC
• Stats: 71.28 – Scoring Avg, 61.39% – DA, 279.52 yards – DD, 66.89% – GIR
• Other – Last week Rapha was a gut call, this week we’re riding his hot hand after four impressive rounds in Turkey. Four straight 69’s will make people take notice, but not enough to drive the price up too high after last week. Let’s keep riding the Frenchie this week to some cash.

ALSO CONSIDER – Robert Rock (DK $6,400) put up some solid numbers through 36 holes last week and continues to show why he’s a popular play amongst the golf punters, let’s just hope he can post a finishing position of better than DFL this week (I think he does). As mentioned above, all South Africans are in play this week. Brandon Stone (DK $6,300) is the cheapest of the bunch and even though he has the one blip on his record here, I’m more than willing to take a flier on him in GPP’s this week considering who he’s representing and on a course where he’s played before.

GPP PLAYS

Rafa Cabrera Bello (DK $9,600)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 19th – 10th – 31st
• Stats: 70.39 – Scoring Avg, 60.18% – DA, 284.15 yards – DD, 76.48% – GIR
• Other – If this suggestion surprises you, you clearly haven’t been reading any of my preview articles. Rafa is a beast when it comes to DraftKings scoring and in no cut events you literally have nothing to worry about with him. Yes, it kind of takes the allure away from playing him because of the edge you lose with his cut making ability, but outside of that you have to play guys that score in bunches and that’s what Rafa does.

Joakim Lagergren (DK $7,300)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 17th – 18th – 4th – 63rd – 53rd
• Stats: 70.86 – Scoring Avg, 51.95% – DA, 289.61 yards – DD, 66.51% – GIR
• Other – We’re going back to the well here again this week. Driving Distance: Check. Greens in Regulation: Check. Trending upwards: Check. He’s played well on courses where he doesn’t have course history and has been coming in at lower ownerships because of that. I love him this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – I don’t hate the idea of playing Thomas Pieters (DK $9,400) this week as he’s strong in the areas we’re targeting (off the tee, from the fairway), but ownership will drive whether or not I play him in cash this week. We’ll be riding the hot hand of David Lipsky (DK $7,200) again this week fresh off his 6th place finish at the Turkish making that back to back Top 10’s in his last two events. Lipsky’s really come on as of late and we need to keep going back to the well especially in no cut events where he can bounce back from slow starts. South Africans Thomas Aiken (DK $7,400), Jaco Van Zyl (DK $7,700), and Richard Sterne (DK $7,300) all have some experience on this course (with the exception of Stone), but I honestly don’t care if he does or doesn’t considering South Africans have placed in the Top 20 in twenty-one out of twenty two appearances. That’s pretty crazy when you think about it. If you’re making 10 lineups or more I think it’s a sharp move if you were to use South Africans as a core and rotate other plays in this week. It’s another

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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