Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- KLM Open (European Tour Package)

OVERVIEW

Designed by former winner of this event, Colin Montgomerie, the course features undulating green surrounds, a true links feel with minimal trees and patches of tall fescue creating “mini hazards”,  if you will. This will be the first time The Dutch Course has hosted the event so we have zero course history to go off of which means we’ll need to lean on current form and quality of golfer when looking at our selections this week. The course has four par fives, two of which are over 600 yards and one that’s under 500 so Par 5 scoring will be a necessary statistic to consider this week as well as hitting greens in regulation. It seems as though Monty designed the course with a chip on his shoulder and wants the course to play very difficult because of the advancements in technology, so like usual, there will be a few players that eject on a hole (think back to last week when Brett Rumford took a 10 on a par 5). Our goal this week is to avoid those ejections and have all six finish in the Top 40.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• The Dutch
• Par: 71 (four par 5’s, two over 600 yards, one under 500)
• Yardage: 6,981 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Spijk, Netherlands
• Expected scoring: Tough to say how things will shake out on a course that nobody has played in competition, but I’ll stand behind the winning score of -15 being a reasonable target come Sunday.  
• Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Thomas PIeters -19 over Eduardo de la Riva & Lee Slattery [-18]
• 2014: Paul Casey -14 over Simon Dyson [-14]
• 2013: Joost Luiten [-12] in a playoff over Miguel Angel Jimenez
• 2012: Peter Hanson [-14] over Pablo Larrazabal & Richie Ramsay [-12]
• 2011: Simon Dyson -12 over David Lynn [-11]
• 2010: Martin Kaymer -14 over Christian Nilsson & Fabrizio Zanotti [-10]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, Greens in Regulation
• Important – Current Form, Driving Accuracy, Putts per GIR

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STARS:

Thomas Pieters (DK $12,100)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: WIN – 2^nd – 4^th – 86^th – 30^th – 29^th – 16^th
• Stats: 57 – Scoring Avg, 55.44% – DA, 301.63  yards – DD, 68.39% GIR
• Other – Pieters comes in fresh off a win and is the defending champion of this event, so the first instinct would be to fade the top priced player because there are too many narratives going against him here. If you need some narrative to play him, many feel Pieters was more of a “current form” pick for Darren Clarke’s Ryder Cup team this year, so he may want to prove the nay sayers wrong. I personally think Pieters is worth paying for this week for GPPs.

Alexander Noren (DK $11,500)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: WIN – 2^nd – 49^th – 46^th – WIN – 8^th – MC
• Stats: 91 – Scoring Avg, 53.53% – DA, 288.88 yards – DD, 70.53% – GIR
• Other – Noren’s a solid ball striker who has cut making comfort each week and some serious upside for GPP’s (as he’s won twice in the last 10 weeks). Some may say the Swede is drawing from the positive vibes of fellow countryman Henrik Stenson, but when looking at his statistics it’s probably due to being good at golf. I like him for both cash and GPP’s this week as many will pivot coming off the win.

Joost Luiten (DK $10,500)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 27^th – 33^rd – MC – MC – 9^th – 16^th
• Stats:15 Scoring Avg, 64.25% – DA, 288.12 yards – DD, 71.77% – GIR
• Other – If you’ve been reading this column at all this year you know how fond I am of Luity Fruits. His ball striking is the key to his success this week and given how accurate he is off the tee and on approach shots I anticipate him coming out firing this week. I’d look to stack him with Pieters and Noren for GPP’s and start with Luity for cash games this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Bernd Wiesberger (DK $10,600) – Wiesberger was a GPP recommendation last week and this week he’s highlighted for his Furyk-like game which is what you want for guys in cash. When I say Furyk-like, I mean he’s very boring in his rounds that only include a few birdie conversions each day and I don’t think he has much upside anymore. He’ll get you through the cut, but don’t expect him to reward you with any kind of high placing bonus. I don’t mind Thongchai Jaidee (DK $9,800) for cash either, but his price is just too high considering the type of player he is and its doubtful that he reaches value in GPP’s for you. I honestly can’t recommend playing Pablo Larrazabal (DK $9,300) in cash at that price, but I think he makes for an interesting GPP play from an ownership perspective only. I really don’t see him getting to 80 DK Pts unless he catches fire.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

 Mikko Ilonen (DK $8,600)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 12^th – 21^st – 32^nd – 13^th – 25^th – 69^th
• Stats:21 – Scoring Avg, 54.83% – DA, 286.74 yards – DD, 68.34% – GIR
• Other – If you’re looking to start your cash teams with someone cheaper than $10k, look to Ilonen. Mikko has made 6 of his last 6 cuts, provides finishing place upside and is a birdie maker in his own right (he has averaged 17.5 birdies in his last four events). I like him for cash & GPP’s this week, but expect somewhat high ownership; I wouldn’t worry too much about it though.

 David Howell (DK $8,500)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 29^th – 3^rd – 64^th – 22^nd – 45^th – MC – MC – 31^st
• Stats: 33 – Scoring Avg, 57.81% – DA, 276.26 yards – DD, 65.56% – GIR
• Other – I started looking at Howell last Tuesday and ended up playing him in about 50% of my lineups because of what I considered to be a safety play. Howell plays old man golf (short but accurate, relies on his putting to help him score) and I think his style of game suits the difficultness that this course presents. He’ll plod his way around the course, not making many mistakes and should be good for four days again this week as he’s not missed a cut in his last five events.

ALSO CONSIDER – Richard Bland (DK $8,700) – If you’ve been reading this article since its inception, you know I have a soft spot for Mr. Bland. It started out as a play on his name, combined with the fact that he had never missed a cut, but now playing him is my own safety net. He’s made the cut in 4 of his last 5 and 12 of his last 13 events which includes six Top 25’s. He should be able to reach value assuming he continues his solid play. Alejandro Canizares (DK $8,200) – Canizares has been crushing his value at $7k and below over the past few events so its only fair we get him at a bit of a price hike this week. I’m not really looking at him in cash, but I don’t mind playing him as he’s only missed five cuts all year including two Top 10’s. I’ll primarily be targeting him in GPP’s though. Thomas Detry (DK $8,000) – You know I’m not one to shy away from suggesting guys you’ve never heard of (IE – Tom Lewis the other week, Dan McCarthy a few months ago, etc). This week we have a Belgian player making his 2^nd Euro Tour appearance, on the heels of another Belgian player’s win (Thomas Pieters). Detry has played primarily on the Challenge Tour, but I don’t see the jump from the Challenge Tour to the Euro Tour comparable to the jump from Web.com to PGA Tour. Detry placed 25^th in in first appearance on the Euro Tour at the Open De Espana, and I think he has cut making ability with decent Top 25 upside based on his scoring ability (he won two weeks ago on the Challenge Tour at -29 and has six Top 25’s in eight starts). Obviously I’d only look to target him in GPP’s this week.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Dean Burmester (DK $7,100)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 26^th – 35^th – MC – 20^th – 25^th – MC – MC – 38^th
• Stats: 00 – Scoring Avg, 54.40% – DA, 320.68 yards – DD, 67.52% – GIR
• Other – Burmy the bomber is back this week and should be considered for both cash & GPPs. His bombing off the tee is a huge asset on any course, but especially this one as there’s no altitude bump for the shorter hitters. I also really like his cuts made to missed ratio the past five weeks. I think playing Burmester at this price is a huge value that shouldn’t be ignored.

  Graeme Storm (DK $7,300)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 36^th – 71^st – 7^th – 32^nd – MC – MC – 9^th
• Stats: – 71.97 – Scoring Avg, 64.56% – DA, 277.56 yards – DD, 66.29% – GIR
• Other – I’m going back to the Storm-door this week as he paid off nicely last week for me. The key for him making cuts is hitting fairways & greens in regulation. Storm is currently up for cash consideration for me this week, but I may pivot off for Bertasio just because I like playing guys I’ve played in cash before, whereas Storm may be an interchangeable GPP option this week who will probably see low ownership due to the price jump from last week (on a course where he had really good course history vs. a course where we have none).

ALSO CONSIDER – Nino Bertasio (DK $7,300) seemed to get things back on the right track last week safely making the cut and even making a mini run at moving up the leaderboard over the weekend, which is always nice. Being a Nino supporter I’ll be targeting for cash & GPP’s again this week as he has a propensity to keep things clicking for a few weeks once he gets back on the cut making train. Gregory Havret (DK $6,600) makes his second appearance here in as many weeks due to being ranked 5^th in driving accuracy (70.9%) and 34^th in greens in regulation (70.5%). I like his consistency in making cuts almost as much as his statistical fit at this price, so he makes for a nice 5^th or 6^th option in both cash & GPP’s this week.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Byeong-Hun An (DK $10,400)

• Course History:
• Form: 11^th – MC – 59^th – 49^th – 44^th – 23^rd – 11^th – 33^rd
• Stats: 33 – Scoring Avg, 49.11% – DA, 292.91 yards – DD, 71.53% – GIR
• Other – An is becoming a top tier caliber player on both tours and that’s primarily due to his elite ball striking and is being held back by his putting (I consider him the younger version of Hideki Matsuyama, and not just because they’re both Asian). His greens in regulation rate keeps him in the conversation week after week, but his price this week is what makes him a GPP only play for me. I just hope he remembers what it’s like to be in contention like he was about 20 weeks ago at the weather shortened St. Jude.

 Nicolas Colsaerts (DK $9,100)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 24^th – 30^th – MC – 46^th – 3^rd – 22^nd – MC
• Stats: 18 – Scoring Avg, 64.19% – DA, 276.57 yards – DD, 65.87% – GIR
• Other – Colsaerts isn’t a cash play for any week, especially one where we have zero course history. The Original Belgian Bomber gets the “Belgian Winner” narrative this week as both Detry & Pieters won during the same week and for whatever reason, players on the Euro Tour seems to feed off of their fellow countrymen winning events. Colsaerts has met the value of someone in this price range twice in the past three months, both times coming in 3^rd (Nordea Masters / Scottish Open) so he’ll need to basically finish in the Top 5 to payoff this price tag, which explains yet another reason why we don’t trust him in cash games at this price.

ALSO CONSIDER – Benjamin Hebert (DK $7,700) makes his another appearance in the preview article like his French counterpart Havret. Hebert has been playing some extraordinarily average golf over the past three months, but at this price we’re looking for a cut maker with some upside and Hebert gives us just that primarily due to superior ball striking & accuracy (8^th in greens in regulation, 38^th in driving accuracy). Callum Shinkwin (DK $7,700) – I wasn’t going to write him up this week, but he made the cut last week and presents great upside every week because of his birdie making ability, which is setup by bombing it off the tee leaving himself a short iron in and being extremely accurate with said short irons. I couldn’t help writing him up because of the price drop from last week ($100 cheaper this week), and if there’s one thing we’ve learned in DFS, its that whenever a player receives a price drop whether large or small, we need to take advantage if the skill is there; the skill is there with Shinks. Chris Hanson (DK $7,200) – Shinks gets a slight price drop this week, but Hanson gets a huge bump going from $5,900 to $7,200 and I don’t care. Hanson has been a solid huge value play week in and week out and averages just over 54 DK Pts per week, which is close to meeting value at this price. Hanson has made the cut in five of his last five events, which includes three Top 25’s, two of which were Top 10’s. That’s the upside we like on a guy that people won’t want to play at almost $2k more expensive than they played him at last week. 

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

 

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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