Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- John Deere Classic

OVERVIEW
The golf we actually care about will be played in the Quad Cities this week at the Jordan Spieth.. er Zach Johnson.. er Steve Stricker John Deere Classic! Last year some woman with a blow horn cost Zach a chance at making the playoff between the Golden Child and something called Tom Gillis. Looking at the tournament history you’ll notice Steve Stricker has won this event three times (in a row), but has faded a bit over the past few years and Jordan Spieth has won here two of the last three years. He’s not in the field this week as “a courtesy” because he felt that if he wasn’t able to represent for Team USA he shouldn’t be defending his title here. Maybe the kid is softer than we think! The field is less than strong this week which means players that you’re used to playing at much cheaper prices will seem like they’re overpriced. The key here is to take them at face value and build your teams without that pricing bias.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• TPC Deere Run
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,268 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
o Location: Silvis, IL
o Expected scoring: Just like last week, the course lends itself prey to birdies and better so we should expect some really low numbers this week, and if the winner isn’t 20 under par or better I’d be shocked.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2009):
• 2015: Jordan Spieth -20 in a playoff over Tom Gillis
• 2014: Brian Harman -22 over Zach Johnson [-21]
• 2013: Jordan Spieth -19 in a playoff over Zach Johnson & David Hearn
• 2012: Zach Johnson -20 in a playoff over Troy Matteson
• 2011: Steve Stricker -22 over Kyle Stanley [-21]
• 2010: Steve Stricker -26 over Paul Goydos [-24]
• 2009: Steve Stricker -20 over Zach Johnson, Brandt Snedeker & Brett Quigley [-17]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG: APP, SG:T2G, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, Birdie or Better %, Scrambling
o Important – SG:Putting (greens are slower than usual, similar speed to last week), Greens in Regulation
o Give a look – Approach 125-150, Approach 150-175, Approach >200 yards, Putting from 15’ and in

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STARS:

Zach Johnson (DK $13,000)
• Course History: 3rd – 2nd – 2nd – WIN – 3rd – 21st – 2nd – 69th – MC – 33rd – 36th – 20th
• Form: 47th – 33rd – 12th – 10th – 8th – 17th – 66th
• Stats: 153rd – SG: OTT, 52nd – SG:APP, 27th – SG:ARG, 38th – SG:P, 63rd – SG:T2G, 169th – DD, 50th – DA, 55th – Birdie Avg, 18th – Scoring Avg, 101st – GIR, 32nd – Prox, 2nd – App from 75-100 yards, 23rd – App from 50-125 yards, 38th – App from 125-150, 22nd – App from >200 yards, 34th – Scrambling, 64th – BoB, 62nd – Par Breakers, 31st – P3 BoB, 72nd – P4 BoB, 54th – P5 BoB
• Other – No surprise here, not only is he the top ranked player in the field (according to the OWGR), but he’s got the best tournament history as well. At $13,000, he absolutely needs to win this week in order to meet value. I’m perfectly fine with fading him in a majority of your GPP lineups this week, but I still expect a decent ownership % in cash games because of how weak this field is and the need some feel to put the top priced player in their cash lineups.

Kevin Na (DK $10,500)
• Course History: 13th – MC (2008) – 32nd – 67th
• Form: 22nd – 22nd – 27th – 7th – 74th – 42nd
• Stats: 158th – SG:OTT, 9th – SG:APP, 47th – SG:ARG, 62nd – SG:P, 44th – SG:T2G, 184th – DD, 41st – DA, 99th – GIR, 36th – Birdie Avg, 20th – Scoring Avg, 43rd – Prox, 51st – Rough Prox, 3rd – App from 125-150, 9th – App from 150-175, 69th – Scrambling, 31st – BoB, 39th – Par Breakers, 40th – P3 BoB, 12th – P4 BoB, 147th – P5 BoB
• Other – I don’t know if Na expected to be asked to play in the Olympics this year or if his neck injury is still lingering, but his lack of tournaments played at this point in his career is making me scratch my head. Maybe it’s the injury, maybe he’s enjoying a lighter schedule to focus more on Majors. Whatever the case may be, compared to last year his game isn’t as sharp as it was; it’s a bit frustrating considering he’s priced where he is.

Gary Woodland (DK $10,000)
• Course History: 48th – 21st – MC
• Form: 38th – MC – 12th – 2nd – 21st – MC – 4th – 12th
• Stats: 25th – SG:OTT, 23rd – SG:APP, 93rd – SG:ARG, 15th – SG:T2G, 5th – DD, 27th – GIR, 58th – Birdie Avg, 31st – Scoring Avg, 13th – App from >275, 30th – App from 100-125, 50th – App from 50-125, 4th – App from 150-175, 85th – Scrambling, 32nd – Putts Inside 10’, 80th – BoB, 50th – Par Breakers, 198th – P3 BoB, 70th – P4 BoB, 9th – P5 BoB
• Other – Another week of unfulfilled hopes and dreams by Mr Woodland. The good news here is that he’s played extremely well coming off of some let downs this year and this course sets up very well for his strengths. Moving down the list of “better than average golfers in a weak field” has us ignoring price (as mentioned in my overview) and focusing on what Gare-bear can do for our times especially with his birdie making upside. Since he seems to fit the course so well this week, you should probably expect to see him flirt with a high number on Thursday, be a cut line sweat on Friday, make a run Saturday and fade Sunday, but that’s just the pessimist in me speaking. He won’t see my cash games, but I will be quite heavy on Woodland in GPPs this week (there’s your optimism).

ALSO CONSIDER – Daniel Summerhays (DK $10,600) – Summerhays seems to be immune to fatigue as he’s actually backed up some surprising Major finishes with solid performances (T21 at Quicken following his T8 at the US Open and T11 last week following his 3rd place finish at the PGA Championship). As mentioned in the overview, you’ll need to look past his price this week if you’re going to roster him, but form and course history line up for another good performance. Ryan Moore (DK $10,300) – Moore had things going this past weekend and was primed for a trip back to the Top 10 since the Valspar, but the wheels never really got going on a very score-able Sunday at River Highlands and he can thank most of the clubs in his bag for that as he lost over 2 strokes on approach shots alone and his scrambling wasn’t a positive number either. He gained over 6 strokes on Friday and Saturday, so he’s got the game to do it, it’s just a matter of getting over his Sunday slumps (something he’s well known for when near the first page of the leaderboard). Jerry Kelly (DK $9,400) – Kelly was highlighted last week and I hope you jumped on him as he was tied for the lead after the first round, hung around Friday & Saturday and made a huge move Sunday to lock up a solo 2nd place finish at a mere $6,000. This week things are a bit different due in large part to his course history and said 2nd place finish, but I still like how he sets up here; specifically both his proximity to hole from fairway & rough (10th & 14th), Scrambling (3rd) and his Par 3 Birdie or Better (5th) ranks. Robert Streb (DK $9,200) – Streb’ s form seems to be rounding back into a playable atmosphere as he’s made two cuts in a row and finished T7 at the PGA Championship. Since his missed cut at the PLAYERS he’s finished in the Top 25 three times and missed two cuts (in seven events), so I’m not sure if he’s cash worthy yet, but makes for an excellent GPP play this week.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Scott Brown (DK $8,100)
• Course History: MC – 5th – 22nd – 7th
• Form: 25th – MC – WD – 27th – MC
• Stats: 50th – SG:OTT, 148th – SG:APP, 132nd – SG:ARG, 113th – SG:P, 92nd – SG:T2G, 82nd – DD, 66th – DA, 137th – GIR, 118th – Birdie Avg, 132nd – Scoring Avg, 7th – App from 225-250, 3rd – App from 75-100 (rgh), 24th – Putting from 10-15’, 8th – Approach Putt Perf, 79th – BoB Conv, 76th – P3 BoB, 152nd – P4 BoB, 91st – P5 BoB
• Other – Statistically you may ask yourself “What can Brown do for you/me?” and you may find yourself sitting in silence for a few hours before realizing you’re not going to get answer. Honestly, Brown may be a statistical anomaly in the fact that he does absolutely nothing above average minus a few categories (you’ll notice the stats listed are a bit off the beaten path here), but he’s actually a really good putter – he’s currently at 60 consecutive holes without a 3 putt. I’m really not sure how a man this average has made 14/23 cuts made and six Top 25’s on the year, but he sure does (I went back and checked to make sure PGATour.com’s counts were correct). Brownie’s a bit of a horse here, so let’s hope his statistics on this course far exceed those for the year.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,800)
• Tournament History: 61st (2013)
• Form: 25th – 42nd – 18th – 57th – MC – 8th – MC – MC
• Stats: 60th – SG:OTT, 27th – SG:APP, 70th – SG:ARG, 197th – SG:P, 26th – SG:T2G, 36th – DD, 38th – DA, 10th – GIR, 107th – Birdie Avg, 77th – Scoring Avg, 23rd – Prox, 20th – App from 100-125, 47th – App from 50-125, 27th – App from 125-150, 37th – App from 150-175, 10th – App from 175-200, 90th – P5 BoB
• Other – You can thank the good people at DraftKings for this analysis. Frankly, Keegan is playing well enough to deserve a spot in this article especially at this price, granted he’s the 111th ranked player in the world, but Jerry Kelly is the 101st ranked player in the world and is damn near $2,000 more expensive. Enough about that though, it’s time to play Keegan in both formats based solely on his price. The slow greens should play to his advantage again this week and he’ll have plenty of room off the tees to play from wherever his ball lands. I think Top 20 upside is reasonable this week, and he should be close to 100% expected value if that’s where he finishes (I expect low 80’s, high 70’s as far as expected DraftKings points). He absolutely needs to get something going with his putter though, or he’s toast.

ALSO CONSIDER – Patrick Rodgers (DK $8,500) – Look, I’m all for playing P-Rodg at this price if that’s your thing, but I’m taking last week’s surprise finish as just that. His putter got hot and he killed it with a pair of 66’s on Friday and Saturday and managed to gain almost 5 total strokes because he found the zone. Last year, following two decent outings, his putter didn’t show up and he missed the cut after shooting a first round 67. Same thing happened the week after his 2nd place finish of glory at the Wells Fargo Championship. If you play him, make sure you keep your ownership in check for GPP’s and don’t you dare think of using him in cash games – this is your official warning. Chris Stroud (DK $8,200) – Stroud lived up to expectations last week by making the cut and finishing inside the Top 40. Hopefully he can start a trend where his finishing place gets better and better as we limp into the FedEx Cup Playoffs, because we’re kind of in Stroud season right now. Seung-Yul Noh (DK $7,300) – He was featured here last week as well, and paid off with 70 DK points due to 16 birdies and only 11 bogies. I really like how the Korean sets up here and should have sub 5% ownership again this week (he was under 1% in most GPP’s last week).

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,900)
• Tournament History: 44th – 48th – 45th – MC – 6th – MC – 12th – MC – 14th
• Form: 38th – 33rd – 43rd – 38th – MC – 41st – MC – 55th
• Stats: 117th – SG:OTT, 15th – SG:APP, 62nd – SG:T2G, 125th – DD, 84th – DA, 141st – GIR, 66th – Birdie Avg, 87th – Scoring Avg, 4th – Prox, 36th – Rough Prox, 10th – App from >275, 37th – App from 200-225, 8th – App from 75-100, 13th – App from 100-125, 6th – App from 50-125, 17th – App from 125-150, 7th – App > 200, 71st – Par Breakers, 74th – P3 BoB, 46th – P4 BoB, 118th – P5 BoB, 71st – BoB
Other – I thought I was a week late to the “Welcome Back Vaughn Taylor” party this week, but ‘ol Vaughn didn’t have it in him to last the full 72 holes at the Travelers. Opening with a bogey free 64 on Thursday I had my head in my hands thinking I whiffed not mentioning him in this article last week (although Coach Esser did mention him on our weekly podcast). He hung around the top of the leaderboard until Berger’s torrid run on Saturday, but shooting even par on Sunday in optimal conditions typically won’t help your chances at cracking the top 10 in an event where players are posting scores of 64, 62 and 58! Either way, VT looks to have righted his ship the past month and sets up well for TPC Deere Run as long as he makes birdies after Thursday.

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,800)
• Tournament History: MC (2013)
• Form: 25th – 59th – 47th – 41st – 65th – 49th
• Stats: 107th – SG: OTT, 106th – SG:APP, 139th – SG:ARG, 109th – SG:P, 127th – SG:T2G, 110th – DD, 77th – DA, 39th – GIR, 126th – Birdie Avg, 126th – Scoring Avg, 40th – Prox, 85th – Rough Prox, 9th – App from 250-275, 40th – App from 225-250, 49th – App from 100-125, 50th – App from 50-125, 38th – App from 125-150, 61st – App from 175-200, 34th – App > 200, 50th – Scrambling, 140th – Putts inside 10’ (86.81%), 24th – P3 BoB
• Other – Norlander has quietly caught my attention the past few weeks and although he ranks fairly highly as a ball striker, his scoring has been pretty impressive over the past few months; 48 birdies and an eagle in his last three tournaments. He’s exceeded the price he’s at this week, in those last three events as well and should continue to make it rain golf balls in Illinois this weekend. Maybe he too was inspired by Stenson’s win at The Open Championship? Like Scotty “Too Hotty” Brown, statistically he’s just very average, but something has clicked for the Swede and I’m ready to roll out this meatball (Swedish meatball of course).

Jason Bohn (DK $6,600)
• Course History: 12th – MC – 22nd – MC – 30th – 21st – 39th – 24th – MC – 14th
• Form: MC – 62nd – MC – 61st – 34th
• Stats: 135th – SG:OTT, 71st – SG:APP, 72nd – SG:P, 188th – DD, 10th – DA, 64th – GIR, 36th – Birdie Avg, 91st – Scoring Avg, 18th – Prox, 15th – Rough Prox, 42nd – App from 200-225, 61st – App from 75-100, 31st – App from 125-150, 19th – App from 175-200, 50th – Putting Inside 10’, 63rd – BoB, 49th – Par Breakers, 92nd – P3 BoB, 49th – P4 BoB, 59th – P5 BoB
Other – It’s been awhile since I’ve been confident enough to feature Bohn in this article, but I think this is the week to do it. His current form trend looks a bit worrisome, but that’s only on the surface after missing the cut at the PGA Championship where he made far too many bogeys on the tougher of the two nines to go along with a double and a triple due to inconsistent driving (something he’s not known for). Instead, I’ll be focusing more on the positive side of his game and coming back to a familiar track where he’s had ample success. I think Bohn is worthy of a look in all formats this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Wil Willcox (DK $6,900) – Wilcox was in Monterey last week with DraftKings as part of the Coastline Championship promotion and although he was playing golf, my guess is this was more leisure than actual practice. His game sets up really well here with last year’s stats, but he’s been battling swing issues and injuries all year so this is another week to fade the OG of DFS Twitter. Tyrone Van Aswegen (DK $6,600) – Aswegen offers some much needed cap relief this week, especially if you want to start with the absurdly priced ZJ (btw, if you’re paying $13,000 for a ZJ, you may have a problem). He’s been decent since the missed cut at the Wells Fargo (highlighted by a 5th place finish last week at the Travelers and 96 DK Points) and typically meets value or slightly exceeds it. Expect his ownership to be fairly high this week when looking towards the bottom of the field. Luke List (DK $6,600) – List seems to be a popular play every week where bombers are at an advantage and this week is no different. He missed the cut last week because of his lack of birdie opportunities, but there will be ample opportunities this week. I’d expect to see him around the 25+ birdies made mark this week which means he should easily exceed his value.

 

GPP PLAYS:
Jon Rahm (DK $11,400)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 25th – 2nd – 59th – 3rd – 23rd – 10th
• Stats: N/A, but last week he ranked T15 – Birdies, 17th – SG:OTT, 16th – SG:APP, 38th – SG:ARG, 6th – SG:T2G, 63rd – SG:P, 7th – DD, 62nd – DA, 34th – GIR, 60th – Putts per GIR
• Other – Rahmschtein is a pretty exciting player to watch and should be a solid first round leader bet pretty much every week he tees it up. Rahm averages about 5 birdies per round which is great for DrafKings purposes, as well as his aggressive style of play resulting in the occasional eagle (he had one in the 1st round last week as well). He’ll have plenty of birdie opportunities this week and makes for an excellent GPP play.

Robert Garrigus (DK $9,000)
• Course History: 24th – MC – 25th – WD – 65th – 23rd – MC
• Form: 5th – MC – 11th – 29th – 8th – 50th – 4th
• Stats: 47th – SG:OTT, 4th – SG:APP, 33rd – SG:T2G, 21st – DD, 22nd – GIR, 10th – Birdie Avg, 7th – Proximity, 3rd – App from 100-125, 21st – App from 50-125, 8th – App from 125-150, 1st – App from 150-175, 1st – App from 175-200, 9th – App from >200, 22nd – BoB, 11th – Par Breakers, 2nd – P3 BoB, 55th – P4 BoB, 27th – P5 BoB
• Other – Looking at those finishes is exactly why Garrigus is highlighted as a GPP play this week; it wreaks of boom or bust. Garrigus shows up on courses where he has had success previously and this week is no different. The bomber ranked first in Driving Distance last week at the Travelers and 22nd in putting, a stat that has consistently held him back his career. As long as he keeps the short putter rolling he’ll continue to show us the Top 10-15 upside that we need in order to play him and the speed (or lack thereof) this week should help him out again as well.

ALSO CONSIDER – Brian Harman (DK $8,700) – Brian burned me last week in one lineup that had a legit shot at making me some really good money in the 3 max entry and for that reason I wanted to punch myself for rostering him. He made for a good play with his course history, but I was skittish on playing him and ended up giving in to some “advice” by a friend. This week however, I will be much heavier on the lefty as his course history is very solid (highlighted by his win in 2014), coming off a week where he burned a decent amount of people in a weak field. Adam Hadwin (DK $7,500) – Hadwin seems like the only golfer Canada can rely on when needed. The last time he was priced like someone who’s won on Tour he didn’t meet value, but he did make the cut and was a very contrarian play. I think this is another week to take advantage of low ownership on Hadwin and expect some greater returns. He’ll need to continue to score on the Par 5’s this week, which is fine considering all but one is reachable with his length off the tee. Aaron Wise (DK $7,000) – If you haven’t heard of this fella, he’s a former Oregon Duck (NCAA Champions) made his pro debut at the US Open (missed cut), gained full status on the Mackenzie Tour (Canada) via Q School, placed T10 in his first event, won his second, and placed T15 last week after a final round 65. I’m not going to say he’s ready to win on the PGA Tour, but he makes for a fantastic low owned GPP play with some nice birdie upside.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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