Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- John Deere Classic

Welcome Fantasy Golf Insider readers to this week’s preview of the tournament before the Open Championship next week in St Andrews, Scotland.  Oh yeah, it is called the John Deere Classic. Obviously the tournament a week before a major isn’t going to have the best field of the season. That being said there are a few marquee names this week, including Jordan Spieth and Zach Johnson along with 14 other players who have already qualified for The Open. John Deere actually provides a charter flight for those players Sunday night, to fly them over to St Andrews. The final Open Championship berth this week awaits the highest top-5 finisher who hasn’t already punched his ticket to St. Andrews. TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois has been the host for this event since 1971 and was called the Quad Cities Open as well as other sponsors including Miller and Hardees before John Deere started in 1999. TPC Deere Run is a par 71, measures 7,268 yards, and features four par 3s and three Par 5s. The course houses many mature trees along fairways, dramatic elevation changes, and features very small greens guarded by a lot of green-side bunkers. Besides that if you thought the courses over the past two weeks played easy, you have not seen anything yet. The last three years winning scores have been -22, -19, and -20, with the cutline being -3, -4, and -4. Guys are going to need to score this week as there are many birdie opportunities. Five years ago Paul Goydos actually recorded just the fourth 59 on the PGA Tour here.

Last year Brian Harman won his first PGA Tour event using three consecutive birdies down the stretch to pull away from Zach Johnson’s surge with a 5-under 66. A string of three birdies in five holes lifted Johnson into a tie as Harman approached the 14th tee, where Harmon drove into a greenside bunker at the short par-4, but hit a 14-foot birdie putt. Additional birdies at Nos.15 and 16 re-established a two-shot cushion, where a closing bogey didn’t hurt him. Zach Johnson finished runner-up and Jhonattan Vegas and Jerry Kelly tied for third.

Before we get into what statistics we are going to be targeting this week, lets take a look at last week at the Greenbrier and see how we did. Our stud picks were 2 for 4 making the cut and Bubba Watson took T13 and J.B Holmes took T22. We advised to fade Bubba in DFS, and it proved to be correct as he did not provide value for his price. Our sleepers were a mess as the three of them all missed the cut. We did recommend going with a balanced approach and avoiding the high-priced guys along with the low-dollar guys and we hope you listened. The balanced approach turned out to be the way to go because our value plays were amazing. Kevin Kisner and Robert Streb, both recommended value plays, finished runner-up losing in a playoff. Brendon Todd provided a huge T6 and Shawn Stefani a T13. Rodgers (T60), Chappell (T37), and McNeill (T22) rounded out a really great seven out of eight value picks making the cut. In weeks like last week where the high dollar guys are not necessarily that great (Simpson, Haas, Reed), the strategy needs to be a balanced approach.

The statistics that we will be analyzing this week include strokes gained tee-to-green, greens in regulation, driving accuracy, and birdie average, and Par 3 and 4 birdie or better average. Greens in regulation stands apart as the most meaningful statistic this year to analyze. An example of this is last year is when eight players that hit the most greens in regulation six of them finished in the Top 10 standings. As we mentioned earlier, players are going to need to score to win this week so we want those players who can put up birdies in bunches. Driving distance has not been a significant indicator of success here in the past before and last year Jhonattan Vegas and Brian Harmon were the only players who ranked in the top 20 in driving distance that finished in the Top 10. Although Harmon also ranked as the eighth most accurate driver in the field last year and first in greens in regulation. Another key piece of information we uncovered is the propensity for the guys who do well in the first and second rounds to hold on and finish well. This is very different than a lot of tournaments, where the first round leaders are essentially meaningless as they fall back often and others charge from behind. Here are some examples: Last year the eventual winner, Brian Harmon was the co-leader with Zach Johnson, the eventual runner-up after the first round. After the second round Johnson was first and Harmon third and then Harmon took over and held onto first the rest of the way. In 2013, Jordan Spieth was one of the two players in the past five years to come from behind as he was in 64th after the first round and 19th in the second. The eventual runner-up however, Zach Johnson was in first place after the first and second rounds and kept up ahead of everybody but Spieth the rest of the way. Other Top 5 finishers, David Hearn and Daniel Summerhays both started the tournament in the Top 6 after the first round. 2012 was much of the same as Troy Matteson led wire-to-wire and ended runner-up losing in a playoff to Zach Johnson. Johnson was the only other player to come from way behind as he was in 39th after Thursday’s round. Three others finishing in the Top 5 all started in the Top 5 after round 1. In 2011, the entire Top 8 finishers all were in the Top 8 after the first round. Finally 2010, Steve Stricker was in second place after day 1 and ended in 1st and Paul Goydos started in first after day 1 and ended in 2nd. So what good does this information do us and how can we utilize it. Well knowing what players typically start well in tournaments could give us an edge at The John Deere, knowing that year after year guys typically are able to maintain their lead. In DFS it is always important to have a strong starter, because if he can get through the cut, he can accumulate points over an additional two days. Often times, guys who are leading after the first round fall back and can’t maintain their lead while others come out of nowhere to win. This tournament has proven to be different year after year as guys who start strong generally end strong. We are going to thus analyze first and second round scoring average to see who the guys are that get off to strong starts. We will incorporate this information into our recommendations. If you are not a premium member you can find those stats various places on the internet, but for those of you who are premium members, for your convenience, we will list those players in the field that rank highly in first and second round scoring average at the bottom of our recommendations.

Each week we analyze tournament history, but very few tournaments seem to have the same players consistently finish well year after year as the John Deere Classic. Take for example Steve Stricker who has six straight Top 12 finishes including three consecutive wins between 2009-2011. Stricker is not the only person who has had a ton of success here in the past, just check out our tournament history page to see how everybody has played at TPC Deere run over the past seven years.

Also, be sure to check out our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, as it helps identify some outstanding values on daily fantasy sites when compared to how a consensus of sportsbooks rank them. Keep in mind how valuable this tool was last week as it helped identify the likes of Danny Lee and Greg Owen as outstanding values compared to their price.

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Top Stud Picks:

 

Jordan Spieth- By far the class of this field, the only conceivable reason to doubt Spieth is the concern that his mind is on The Open Championship and does not care about The John Deere. That reasoning is obviously impossible to measure, but Spieth’s results the last two years say that he cares about it and we will see his A-game. Last year he finished 7th and in 2013 he won it. His record speaks for itself this year with three runner-up finishes and three championships including the first two majors. He ranks 83rd in driving accuracy, 48th in greens in regulation, 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 12th in Par 3 Birdie or Better %, 1st in Par 4 Birdie or Better %, and 2nd in Birdie Average. In DFS we think Spieth is going to be one of the most heavily owned player, so the strategy may be to fade him and hope he does not perform well and you separate yourself from 30% of the field. (Mostly GPP due to his salary)

Harris English- We like English this week for a couple of reasons. Statistically he sets up really nice ranking 4th in Par 3 birdie or better, 35th in Par 4 scoring, 55th in greens in regulation, and 60th in strokes gained tee-to-green. We talked about how guys who start strong tend to be able to hold on and finish well at The John Deere, well English is a very strong starter and ranks 8th on the PGA Tour in round 1 scoring average (2nd in this field) and 19th in round 2 scoring average. If he can keep that up and get the lead early in the tournament we think he can hold on. Last year he had a great first round shooting a 67, but made some bad mistakes in the second round and fell back shooting a 73 and ended up finishing 74th. In 2013 he opened up with 69s in the first two rounds and ended up finishing well with a 15th. English definitely has the ability to finish high and has proven that several times this year with a T3 at The Sony Open, T10 at Valspar, and runner-up at Farmers. A Top 10 is expected and hopefully a Top 3. (Mostly GPP, but also could be fine for Cash Games)

Steve Stricker- We generally do not recommend Stricker because he is a part-time player and it is hard to really excel in a sport like golf while just dabbling in it. His results back that theory up as he has been very mediocre this season missing the cut last week at Greenbrier, T40 at Memorial, T27 at Crowne Plaza, T38 at The Players, MC at Zurich, and T28 at The Masters. So why are we recommending him this week, you may ask. Well the combination of the lack of talent in the field and his absolute dominating tournament history make it tough to stay away from him. In 13 career appearances here he has Top 10s in 7 of them including championships from 2009-2011. The last three years he was 11th, 10th, and 5th. He does not have enough events to qualify for official rankings on the PGA Tour but his numbers would place him 45th in driving accuracy, 87th in greens in regulation, and 28th in strokes gained tee-to-green. Finally, Stricker is a University of Illinois graduate playing in his old stomping grounds. In a season long league there is no better week to use up Stricker during the entire season, so do it. As with Spieth, the only reason you would avoid him in DFS would be his salary and try and dodge higher ownership. (GPP due to salary)

Zach Johnson- Outside of the U.S Open, Johnson has been playing extremely well lately. A 6th at the Travelers, 5th at Byron Nelson, T19 at Crowne Plaza, T13 at The Players, and T9 at The Masters surrounded the T72 at the U.S Open. Johnson ranks 6th in driving accuracy, 51st in greens in regulation, and 16th in strokes gained tee-to-green. As with Stricker, his tournament history has been dominant with 13 appearances having 5 Top 10s, including runner-ups the last two years, a win in 2012, and a third in 2011. Johnson feels comfortable here and his game sets up great to excel yet another time on this course. In a season long league he is a great play and in DFS if you are completing a stars and scrubs type lineup he is one of the few true stars in this field. (Mostly GPP)

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Kevin Kisner- Another guy we are proud to have told our readers to choose last week as he continued his great play with another runner-up finish. Other recent appearances, Kisner has finished a runner up at RBC Heritage, T28 at Zurich, runner-up at The Players, T38 at Wells Fargo, T5 at Crowne Plaza, T8 at The Memorial, and T12 at U.S Open. He ranks 18th in driving accuracy, 40th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 22nd in Par 4 scoring, and ranks high in second round scoring average. The only concern that we have is that he might have a letdown from last week’s runner-up and looking ahead to his Open Championship appearance. This will be the reason we are not all-in on Kisner although we will have some exposure because he has been playing so well lately. (GPP and Cash Games)

George McNeill- Now a regular in our recommendations, how can you not like what he has done over the last several months. In DFS, McNeill has out-produced his price nearly every single week. The only thing that does not line up this week for him is his tournament history where he has zero Top 10s in six appearances with three missed cuts, although he did finish 15th in 2010. As we say often however, current form will overrule tournament history when a player is playing better golf than he has at any point throughout his career and McNeill is a perfect example of that. Last week he again recorded a solid finish with aT22 at Greenbrier and before that outside the U.S Open where he missed the cut he made 9 consecutive cuts and all but one were Top 35 finishes. He is a guy typically under most people’s radar’s because he has not had better than a 5th place finish this year. But a guy who we can rely on making the cut a delivering a Top 35 finish every single week is not bad. (GPP and Cash Games)

Patrick Rodgers- We saw what Rodgers was capable of last week shooting a 68-65-69 Thursday through Saturday, but unfortunately struggled on Sunday and shot a 74 falling back in the standings to a T60. He is a big time talent who if he can avoid a really bad one round per tournament, you will be seeing him in the Top 10 often. He has made the cut in his last four events played with a T39 at Travelers, T29 at FedEx St Jude, and T40 at The Memorial before Greenbrier last week. Rodgers has three career appearances here at the John Deere with a 15th in 2013 sandwiched in between two missed cuts. Rodgers ranks 79th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 10th in Par 4 birdie or better, and 13th in Par 4 scoring. Finally Rodgers has the second best Round 2 scoring average on Tour, and typically starts tournaments well, which will be more meaningful this week than most. (GPP and Cash Games)

Robert Streb- We are happy to say we recommended Streb last week as he delivered a heroic after his putter broke and he was forced to putt with his wedge and still make it into the playoff and end up finishing runner-up. Get used to seeing Streb in our recommendations a lot again now that he is back after a couple month swoon where he was brutal. Outside of that stretch he has been outstanding this year and we are happy to say that we have recommended him tons. This week we anticipate the same type of high quality performance from him. In his two outings here the last two years he has a 37th and 22nd. Streb’s last several outings have produced a T42 at The U.S Open, T18 at The Memorial, T19 at Crowne Plaza, and T4 at Wells Fargo. We expect another solid performance from him this week and as a sneak peek at the British Open, we like him there, especially on Draftkings. Although he is priced at $9000 this week, his pricing for The Open is dirt cheap at only $6,400. (GPP and Cash Games)

Shawn Stefani- We just realized we could have duplicated the majority of last week’s recommendation because there are so many of the same guys as Greenbrier. But what the hell, we don’t care as long as they are producing results and they most definitely did last week. Stefani finished 13th here last year and missed the cut in 2013. At Greenbrier last week Stefani finished T13. He has been in the mix many times this season with a T9 at Wells Fargo, T17 at Valspar, T19 at Crowne Plaza , and a runner-up at OHL Mayakoba. It is only a matter of time that Stefani breaks through with a win and this could be the week. 51st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 22nd in greens in regulation, 13th in Par 4 scoring, and 16th in Par 4 birdie or better %. (GPP and Cash Games)

Justin Thomas-Probably one of the biggest collapses we have seen in some time on the PGA Tour, Thomas went from leading the Greenbrier on Sunday to finishing T54. A final round 75, featuring a snowman (quadruple bogey) sunk Thomas and cost a lot of his owners a lot of money. Now can Thomas bounce back from that demoralizing finish? That remains to be seen, but we think so. He has the tendency to run hot (and obviously cold) and he is a big-time talent who is capable of finishing high as he has shown several times this year including a T4 at Sanderson Farms, T6 at The Sony Open, T7 at Humana, T10 at Valspar, T7 at Wells Fargo, and T11 at RBC Heritage. His only appearance at TPC Deer Run resulted in a MC in 2013. He ranks 28th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 65th in greens in regulation, and actually ranks near the top in first and second round scoring leaders and we talked about how important that is at TPC Deere Run. We expect Thomas to shake off the mess he made on Sunday and put up a great finish at the John Deere this week. (GPP and Cash Games)

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Scott Brown- Another guy who we have been recommending for the past couple of months and glad we have been as he has been very solid. Brown finished T37 last week at Greenbrier and haa consistenltly been making the cut and finishing in the Top 30. Brown is not however a guy that is going to give you a Top 10 finish as two in 25 events this season. His best finishes have been a T10 at The Shriners in the fall and T10 at Puerto Rico, not exactly star-studded fields. In his three appearances at TPC Deere Run he has a 5th last year, 22nd in 2013, and 7th in 2012. Brown really does not stand out in any statistical categories, it just comes down to his consistency that keeps him afloat. For DFS, Brown is a cut-maker who will accumulate points over the weekend and perfect for a cash game, but his limited upside hurt his GPP value. (Mostly cash games)

Jerry Kelly- A real nice stretch for Kelly between mid-April to the end of May included a T18 at RBC Heritage, T22 at Zurich, T17 at The Players, T10 at Crowne Plaza, and T30 at Byron Nelson. All of a sudden he has missed his last two cuts at FedEx St Jude and the Travelers. We look for Kelly to bounce back this week at a place where he has enjoyed much success in the past with three Top 10s in nine appearances including a 3rd place finish last year and 4th in 2013. He is one of the Top round two scoring average leaders, which gets him through a lot of cuts and as we have seen good finishes at the John Deere. Kelly ranks 15th in driving accuracy, 73rd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 3rd in scrambling, 22nd in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 3 scoring, 53rd in Par 4 birdie or better, and 10th in Par 3 birdie or better. His price on daily sites is not as low as we would have expected ($8,400 on Draftkings) so he is not really a sleeper, price-wise.  (GPP and Cash Games)

Luke Guthrie- A University of Illinois alumni, Guthrie has had a couple solid performances in his three appearances here sporting a 27th last year, MC in 2013, and 5th in 2012. Guthrie has had an up and down year, although mostly down placing T37 last week at Greenbrier, MC at Travelers and FedEx St Jude, T60 at Byron Nelson, T27 at Crowne Plaza, with highlights of T17 at Shell Houston Open and T7 at Valspar. Statistically speaking Guthrie is not much ranking 151st in driving accuracy, 164th in greens in regulation, and 137th in strokes gained tee-to-green. Guthrie is not a guy we love, but in a weak field this week the options are limited and he is capable of playing well on this course. (GPP only)

For those of you who can stomach Will Wilcox after his past two blown cuts, his price is ultra cheap on DFS sites, so you might want to consider giving him another chance.

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:  For those of you who play on Fantasy Feud, there is a blatant error in their pricing.  For some reason Ryan Moore is priced at $30,000 ( the minimum salary). We have not confirmed with Fantasy Feud what happened, but we are not going to tell anybody but our premium members, and we would expect you not to spread the word either.  Although we did not recommend him in our preview, at that price he is providing so much value that he is a must roster.  Our guess is that a lot of people are going to notice the error and do the same, but if you can get into contests (especially head to head and 50/50s) where opponents might not notice it, you will gain a real nice advantage.  Now if Moore completely sucks and misses the cut, it will not be good, but it is one of those things that if you take advantage of often enough the long-term EV is very very positive.  If you do not currently play on Fantasy Feud, this might be the time to jump in.  Be sure to sign up through our affiliate link on our homepage so you get a bonus and we get a little cut.  We appreciate that.  See it pays off to read the entire preview 🙂

Best of luck to all of our members this week and let us know how you do!

-Fantasy Golf Insider

 

Round 1 Scoring Average in the Field at John Deere:

Jason Kokrak
Harris English
Jordan Spieth
Michael Thompson
Tom Gillis
Justin Thomas
Alex Cejka
William McGirt
Brian Stuard
Jim Herman
Zach Johnson
Jason Bohn

Round 2 Scoring Average in the Field at John Deere:
Jordan Spieth
Patrick Rodgers
Zac Blair
Chad Collins
Jerry Kelly
Danny Lee
Tony Finau
Kevin Kisner
Harris English
Geroge McNeill
Shawn Stefani
Justin Thomas
Jason Bohn
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