Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Italian Open (European Package)

OVERVIEW

First off, let’s tip our hats to DraftKings this week for putting out some really nice contests for the Euro Tour. With the PGA Tour taking the week off between the BMW Championship and the TOUR Championship, DraftKings expects the majority of PGA DFS’ers to migrate over to our land this week, which means we should have a nice edge against players that will undoubtedly pick players they know (ignoring some better plays they don’t know). It’s important to note that the Italian Open has been played at the Golf Club Milano only once since 2010 (last year) so we don’t have much course history to go off of. When weighting your stats, I’d lean a bit heavier on current form versus course history as the sample size is minimal. If you’re trying to decide between two players, course history would be the third option of a tie breaker, in my opinion, after looking at statistical comparisons and current form. Lastly, the course is not links style this week, so we can’t just target bombers who spray it off the tee. Yes you’ll still want long hitters, but make sure you look for guys that hit it long and can keep it in the fairway more than 50% of the time.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Golf Club Milano
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,159 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix typically running about 9.5’ on the stimp meter (slow speeds)
• Location: Parco Reale di Monza, Italy
• Expected scoring: Last year’s winner needed extra holes, but the winning score of -19 was still pretty impressive. I’d expect similar scoring again this week.  
• Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Rikard Karlberg -19 in a playoff over Martin Kaymer
• 2014: Hennie Otto -20 over David Howell [-18]
• 2013: Julien Quesne -12 over David Higgins and Steve Webster [-11]
• 2012: Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -24 over Garth Mulroy [-22]
• 2011: Robert Rock -21 over Gary Boyd & Thorbjorn Olesen [-20]
• 2010: Fredrik Andersson Hed -16 over David Horsey [-14]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Greens in Regulation, Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, Putts per GIR
• Important – Current Form, Course History (I wouldn’t put too much stock in this), Player’s home country (this may be a stretch, but I think the Italians show up this week)

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STARS:

 

Byeong-Hun An (DK $10,800)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 3^rd – 11^th – MC – 59^th – 49^th – 44^th
• Stats:97 Scoring Avg, 49.28% – DA, 294.40 yards – DD, 73.33% – GIR
• Other – Benny was featured here last week and didn’t disappoint so he gets the nod again. Precise ball striking on approach shots are his bread & butter and until that part of his game starts to wane I will continue to suggest him for both cash & GPP’s especially now that he’s getting more “reps” this late in the year. His driving distance and accuracy are down, but his greens in regulation and putting averages are the best he’s had in three years.

Danny Willett (DK $10,500)

• Course History: 3^rd
• Form: 12^th – 37^th – 79^th – 53^rd – MC – MC – 37^th
• Stats: 66 – Scoring Avg, 58.33% – DA, 290.42 yards – DD, 71.88% GIR
• Other – Danny showed us some promise his last time out, but as the favorite it was a bit of a letdown and he struggled on Friday and Saturday before firing a Sunday 64. We all know he has the talent to play well week in and week out as we’ve seen it leading up to his win at the Masters, but something is still off. All that being said, he’s not the odds on favorite this week so it might be a good time to invest in young Danny as he sets up very nicely statistically and he’s got a 3^rd place finish here last year.

Rafa Cabrera Bello (DK $10,100)

• Course History: 74^th
• Form: 5^th – 5^th – 49^th – 39^th – 21^st – 4^th
• Stats: 60 – Scoring Avg, 58.78% – DA, 284.44 yards – DD, 75.08% – GIR
• Other – Rafa finally returns to action after a long, but questionable hiatus on both Tours. Rafa has been a DraftKings points monster this year and I see no reason to fade him in either cash or GPP’s because of that. He’s fairly long off the tee, accurate with both woods & irons in his hands, and can putt. Its hard to imagine that he hasn’t won this year on either tour yet, but it could be coming this week and we’ll want to be a part of this. I wouldn’t worry too much about his finish here last year, he’s been lighting up courses since the Match Play event back in the spring and hasn’t really cooled off.

ALSO CONSIDER – Martin Kaymer (DK $11,500) seems to be a decent place to start for cash games this week if you’re looking to pay up. Kaymer hasn’t missed a cut on the Euro Tour since February, but I really hate paying up for the highest priced player when he hasn’t shown any better than a T5 in some pretty weak fields thus far. I think he’s one to fade for GPP’s this week, especially since he’s a well-known name for PGA Tour DFS players and finished 2^nd here last year. Joost Luiten (DK $10,300) has become one of my favorite Euro Tour DFS plays this year and it was nice to see him notch his first victory since 2014 last week. If you don’t mind taking the previous week’s winner, Luiten makes for yet another good play this week and has been close to firing on all cylinders pretty much every week on the Euro Tour. Since his first win in 2011, he’s gone T51, T10, T24, MDF (T93) so there’s some concern for GPP upside, but I think he makes for a decent cash play this week even at this price. Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $10,000) is not someone I’d consider for cash games as he’s pretty spendy and can miss cuts by a mile, but for GPP’s he makes an excellent pivot off of Willett or Luiten (more on him later). With three Top 16’s in his last four events, he provides excellent upside not only in finishing place, but with his birdie making ability.    

 

VALUE PLAYS:

 

  David Lipsky (DK $7,800)

• Course History: 3^rd
• Form: 58^th – 3^rd – 6^th – 64^th – 24^th – MC – MC – 28^th – MC – MC
• Stats: 67 – Scoring Avg, 52.94% – DA, 289.88 yards – DD, 66.99% – GIR
• Other – Lipsky came crashing back to earth at the Omega, but he took last week off and returns to a place he’s had late season success at. I don’t love the suggestion like a lot of these other plays, because I think people will gravitate to him based solely on his finish here last year, but sometimes you have to eat the cheap chalk, and Lipsky could be that this week. I like him as a core play in GPP’s as well as a play in cash games seeing as how he hasn’t missed a cut since June.

Richard Bland (DK $7,500)

• Tournament History: MC
• Form: 16^th – 5^th – 27^th – 32^nd – 21^st – MC – 45^th – 31^st
• Stats:78 – Scoring Avg, 59.98% – DA, 287.43 yards – DD, 70.83% – GIR
• Other – Bland led the KLM for two rounds and slowly fell down the leaderboard, but finishing 16^th wasn’t bad from a projection perspective considering no one expected him to lead for more than one round. You know I like this guy every week and this is just a formality, but he’s solid as a cut maker and provides birdie & finishing place upside every week. Make him a part of your core again this week.

Padraig Harrington (DK $7,300)

• Tournament History: 33^rd
• Form: 21^st – 64^th – 13^th – 36^th – 21^st – 30^th – 9^th
• Stats: 00 – Scoring Avg, 59.52% DA, 287.46 yards – DD, 65.74% GIR
• Other – Paddy might be the chalk play of the week, but sometimes you need to eat some chalk in order to get that big payday. Harrington has been nothing less than consistent this year on the Euro Tour (and for the most part on the PGA Tour) so I like him as a core play for both cash & GPP’s. He’s old, he knows how to think his way around a golf course, and typically doesn’t make too many mistakes. Plug him in and worry about the other five guys in your lineup this week.

ALSO CONSIDER –Chris Wood (DK $7,800) has been china doll-like this year with numerous withdrawls, but when you write a player off as a health concern, they usually end up biting you the next time they play. Last week he played mediocre (putting it lightly) at best finishing 59^th, but he needs his game to start ticking upwards if he wants to see more than one day of fourball/foursomes and singles matches at Hazeltine. This week will be a good test to see if he’s able to step it up a notch before heading to Chaska. Nino Bertasio (DK $7,400) looks like he’s kicked the sand out of his shorts finally after hanging around the first page of the leaderboard for the majority of the KLM Open. Unfortunately he dropped to 24^th when it was all said and done, but making two cuts in a row is a good sign. Oh, and he’s Italian.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 

  Craig Lee (DK $6,900)

• Tournament History: 56^th
• Form: 51^st – MC – 44^th – 19^th – 32^nd – MC – MC
• Stats: – 72.13 – Scoring Avg, 59.64% – DA, 281.80 yards – DD, 66.91% – GIR
• Other – Lee isn’t someone I’ve really looked at in previous events, but he comes in making four of his last five cuts and is cheap. All we’re looking for in this price range is someone to help boost our total number of players through the cut on Friday and provide a little upside on the weekend. Based on his statistics for the year, I think Lee fits the mold for this week and might even surprise some people with where he finishes come Sunday. His driving distance numbers are the lowest they’ve been in his career, but as long as he’s hitting greens in regulation and two putting or better, he should be fine.

Daniel Brooks (DK $6,800)

• Tournament History: 33^rd
• Form: 45^th – 35^th – 18^th – 62^nd – 16^th – MC – MC
• Stats: 17 – Scoring Avg, 51.93% – DA, 290.61 yards – DD, 65.04% – GIR
• Other – Brooks is decently long off the tee, and pretty accurate on approaches, but his birdie making ability is something that has gone under the radar the past few weeks. During the KLM, Omega & Czech Masters he totaled thirteen birdies in each event, and at the Made In Denmark he posted twenty total birdies. What am I getting at here? Well, he has the ability to meet value at this price, something he’s done in all four of his last four events, and has exceeded his value in all but one of them (63.5 DK FPts @ $6,900, 86 DK FPts @ $6,300, 84.5 DK Fpts @ $6,300 and 56.5 DK FPts @ $6,600). He looks like a fine play for cash games, and a low owned option for GPP’s this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Benjamin Hebert (DK $6,900) returns again even though he missed the cut last week. Greens & accuracy off the tee will play to his benefit this week, and he hasn’t missed back to back cuts yet this year (a metric I put a lot of confidence in when looking at how a player typically responds to missing cuts is something you can’t find in a statistics table) and both he and David Drysdale (DK $6,500) both missed the cut by one shot at the KLM (Drysdale missed because of two rounds of 71, where Hebert actually tried to grind out his Friday round with a 69 after shooting himself in the foot with a Thursday 73). I’m fine with both of these guys in cash or GPP’s this week. Chris Hanson (DK $6,200) has seen his fair share of suggested plays in this article this year and he paid off handsomely last week finishing 8^th. I like the way his game is trending again and having a share of the lead for a small part of Thursday and not gagging all of the strokes away by Sunday afternoon should’ve given him some much needed confidence. This price range is his wheelhouse for him as a value play after being over $7k twice in the last three weeks.

 

GPP PLAYS:

 

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $9,400)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: MC – MC – 17^th – 10^th – 5^th – 2^nd – 33^rd – MC
• Stats: 34 – Scoring Avg, 60.95% – DA, 292.61 yards – DD, 69.78% – GIR
• Other – If Kjeldsen is the Hatton pivot for GPP’s he should come at some seriously low ownership, but Hatton himself makes for a nice GPP play as well coming off of two straight missed cuts. Hatton is long and accurate off the tee, hits a boat load of greens in regulation and can putt, so what the hell has gone wrong the last two events? Birdies. He wasn’t able to make enough of them on Thursday at the Omega. When he did finally start draining them on Friday it was too late and he was in too deep of a hole. Hopefully the week off allowed him to get dialed back in and we can see more of what we saw during August out of him.

Soren Kjeldsen (DK $9,300)

• Course History: MC
• Form: 8^th – 21^st – 64^th – 33^rd – 9^th – 21^st – 42^nd – MC – 20^th – MC – 19^th – 43^rd
• Stats: 25 – Scoring Avg, 62.59% – DA, 273.09 yards – DD, 66.67% – GIR
• Other – Targeting Soren for GPP’s seems like a good idea for different reasons. One, he missed the cut here last year, so right away people will avoid him. Two, he’s right below Francesco Molinari (Italian) who should be highly owned, and above regular DFS favorite Tyrrell Hatton. Three, he’s trending upwards over his last four events and even though he didn’t win in Denmark, he played well enough to hang around for most of the tournament. Sometimes that’s all a player needs to boost his confidence.

ALSO CONSIDER – Peter Uihlein (DK $7,300) makes his return after wrist surgery in May. There’s no doubt he’s a talented golfer, but wrist surgeries are no joke and we saw how long it took Furyk to get back to his old ways after his recovery from wrist surgery. My thinking here is that people will wait on him because of that line of thinking and it could be to our advantage as Uihlein comes from Titleist money, and one would expect him to be working on his swing once doctors cleared him. If you don’t want to risk it with PU, take a look at George Coetzee (DK $7,100) or Jamie Donaldson (DK $7,000). Coetzee missed the cut last week after finishing 18^th the week before and has no course history here. Donaldson hasn’t played since the Made In Denmark where he started out hot and fizzled the next two days. As long as both players can avoid making doubles or worse they should be able to meet value this week. Rounding out the last of the GPP plays is Raphael Jacquelin (DK $6,800) who missed the cut after firing an opening round 67 by absolutely ejecting on Friday with a 75. Whenever he’s made the cut, he’s exceeded his value 100% of the time regardless of where he was priced – 74.5 DKFpts @ $6,300 (Dubai), 80.5 DK Fpts @ $6,300 (Nordea), 93 DK Fpts @ $6,900 (BMW Int’l), 66 DK FPts @ $6,900 (Scottish Open), 85.5 DK Fpts @ $6,400 (Omega).

 

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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