Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Hong Kong Open (European Package)

First of all let’s acknowledge how DraftKings has bumped up the GPP’s this week. It’s not much, but as I noted on Twitter this morning, my expectations have reached an all-time low with their payouts so I’m very happy to see a payout that includes a comma for first and second place in their “featured” GPP’s. Secondly, Justin Rose withdrew from the Hero World Challenge last week after a horrible first round and claimed his back issue was flaring up again. I’m not sure if that’s true or not considering he didn’t seem to have any issues during the Ryder Cup, but he was guaranteed some kind of paycheck regardless after teeing it up Friday so my thought is that it was a minor issue that resulted in poor play and his focus was on a real tournament this week as defending champion. His ownership will be much lower considering the risk and he’ll be highlighted below as a GPP only play this week. Ball strikers hold the course record here (Jose Maria Olazabal & Ian Poulter) so we’ll be targeting strong iron players this week which is different from targeting bombers on these types of courses. Lastly, an American hasn’t won this event since Gary Webb did it in 1995 from 1995 to present day past winners include Miguel Angel Jimenez (4x – as recently as 2014 at age 49) and Colin Montgomerie (2006 – age 43) so it might be warranted to target some older gentlemen this week.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND
o The Course
• Hong Kong Golf Club
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 6,699
• Greens: Bermuda
o Location: New Territories, Hong Kong
o Expected scoring: One winner has exceeded the -20 threshold in the past 10 years, and 30% of the tournaments in that span have been decided in a playoff. I think we see another playoff this year and the winning score is -15
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Justin Rose -17 over Lucas Bjerregaard [-16]
• 2014: Scott Hend -13 in a playoff over Angelo Que
• 2013: Miguel Angel Jimenez (4x) -12 in a playoff over Stuart Manley & Prom Meesawat
• 2012: Miguel Angel Jimenez (3x) -15 over Fredrik Andersson Hed [-14]
• 2011 Rory McIlroy -12 over Gregory Havret [-10]
• 2010: Ian Poulter -22 over Simon Dyson & Matteo Manassero [-21]

KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – Ball Striking, Greens In Regulation, Driving Distance
o Important – Course History, Current Form, Driving Accuracy, Asian nationality

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STARS:

Patrick Reed (DK $12,100)
• Course History: 3rd
• Form: 10th
• Stats: 71.80 – Scoring Avg, 54.08% – DA, 281.29 yards – DD, 65.87% – GIR
• Other – Reed’s 10th place finish last week wasn’t as good as it sounds. First of all he finished 10th out of 17 players and made a bunch of really bad swings thru 36 holes. I won’t fade him completely this week, but he’s a GPP only play and I’m setting my expectations low with how he’s performed as a favorite this year. I’ll be underweight on my Reed ownership with a target of 15-20%.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $10,400)
• Course History: 15th (2011) – MC (2009)
• Form: 23rd – 55th
• Stats: 70.58 – Scoring Avg, 58.97% – DA, 286.11 yards – DD, 75.96% – GIR
• Other – It’s been well documented in this article that RCB is a much better player now than he’s ever been. He’s my favorite play out of the top guys this week and a guy I’ll be looking to have the most exposure to in cash and GPP’s and he’ll be the base of my core this week. RCB hits on every metric we’re looking at this week (aside from his nationality) so be sure to have him in a few lineups.

Justin Rose (DK $10,100)
• Course History: Win – MC (2011)
• Form: WD
• Stats: 69.56 – Scoring Avg, 63.01% – DA, 294.13 yards – DD, 77.78% GIR
• Other – Rose will be much lower owned this week due to the WD as mentioned in the preview, but this is a perfect opportunity to put recency bias aside and get a good player (who may or may not be dealing with a back injury) in a relatively weak field. Rose is a ball striker by nature whose putter decides whether or not he contends so the chances will be there this week assuming he tees it up. I wouldn’t go all in on him as that would be the ultra-contrarian play, but I think 15-20% ownership should suffice.

ALSO CONSIDER – Danny Willett (DK $10,600) has played this event once, 21st in 2011 and has been really bad by his standards over the past four months (one second place finish, one eleventh place finish, one missed cut, three >T50 finishes). Danny is considered a GPP wild card at this price, so don’t look at him for cash games. Thongchai Jaidee (DK $9,300) has by far the best course history outside of Miguel Angel Jimenez, and should be the second, if not the first player you plug in for cash games. His ownership will be extremely high in cash and GPP’s this week, but it’s merited with his four T10’s, eight T15’s and no missed cuts at this event.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Ian Poulter (DK $8,800)
• Tournament History: 29th – 4th – Win – 5th – MC (2004)
• Form: 21st – 36th – MC – MC
• Stats: 71.00 – Scoring Avg, 69.05% DA, 296.17 yards – DD, 77.78% GIR
• Other – Poults looks to have shaken off the rust post rehab to the tune of three Top 30’s and coming back to a place where he’s had success should be beneficial to those who invest in him this week. Ball striking and putting are where Poults makes his money, as well as continuously contending on the same courses year in and year out. I expect him to be fairly popular in cash this week, but I will be fading in GPP’s personally.

Dylan Frittelli (DK $7,800)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 25th – 8th – 36th – 42nd – 6th – 6th
• Stats: 71.55 – Scoring Avg, 65.93% – DA, 291.17 yards – DD, 68.38% – GIR
• Other –Frittelli was highlighted in this section last week and paid off with the 25th place finish. It’s pretty clear he’s firing on all cylinders right now and should be considered as a rotational GPP play only this week as he doesn’t have any course history to indicate any level of comfort in Hong Kong. Bombing it off the tee and hitting the majority of fairways will always put a player in my good graces and this week is no different.

Marcus Fraser (DK $7,400)
• Course History: 32nd – 5th – 47th – 3rd – 11th – 10th – 34th – 7th
• Form: MC – 52nd – 53rd
• Stats: 71.94 – Scoring Avg, 61.60% – DA, 271.28 yards – DD, 61.61% – GIR
• Other – The finishes haven’t quite gotten to a point where ownership will be too heavy on Fraser this week, outside of the course history buffs, but I think it’s a good time to get on board for both cash & GPP’s this week. Fraser is a hot putter away from being a threat week in and week out and is a tremendous value considering this upside.

ALSO CONSIDER – Benjamin Hebert (DK $8,700) paid off his price tag and then some last week with his 4th place finish. There is slight concern without any course history that maybe he’s due for a letdown, but when a player hits as many greens as he does and is at least a semi-decent putter. The price tag is a bit hefty this week so I’d reserve him as more of a GPP play this week due to what seems like an obvious regression spot after a solid performance last week. Miguel Angel Jimenez (DK $7,900) will undoubtedly be popular this week as a four time champion of this event, but I think it’s warranted to fade for GPP’s. He’s missed his last two cuts at this event and most people will look at his current form (where he hasn’t missed a cut in over four months), but we’ve been down this road with MAJ before where he’s been a multiple tournament winner and misses the cut by one or more. If it seems too good to be true; it probably is especially for “the most interesting 52 year old man in the world”. Prom Meesawat (DK $7,600) is someone I’m considering for cash games only this week due to his laundry list of years played at this event, but because he’s not considered an above average player on the Euro Tour, I won’t be including him in my core plays. In eleven appearances he’s only missed fourcuts, and most recently he’s cracked the Top 5 in one of four tries. I think the upside of a Top 15 has some merit, but a Top 25 is probably more realistic this week. Thomas Detry (DK $7,100) is another player who falls into this category as well, but I think he’s in play for both cash & GPP as he’s had more Top 10 finishes in the last month than Hebert. Last week Detry managed to play all four rounds under par for the first time since the Kazakhstan Open where he also finished in the Top 10, if he can continue to keep his scores in the 60’s again this week he should return value with ease.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

David Drysdale (DK $7,000)
• Tournament History: 18th – MC – 39th – 21st – 31st
• Form: 11th – 49th – 13th – 44th
• Stats: 71.26 – Scoring Avg, 69.57% – DA, 280.48 yards – DD, 74.43% – GIR
• Other – Drysdale paid off tremendously even at his elevated price tag last week, but this week we get him at a price that’s more comfortable for roster construction. As always with Double D, I think his upside will be capped this week as he’s not been able to turn in good performances in sequential events, but he makes for a nice cut making play and offers some decent salary relief in both formats. I have Drysdale listed above Kruger as I like him more for cash this week. Both are solid value plays in their respective formats.

Jbe’ Kruger (DK $7,200)
• Tournament History: 41st – 21st – 24th – 46th – 38th – MC
• Form: 32nd – 10th – 10th
• Stats: 71.46 – Scoring Avg, 55.59% – DA, 293.26 yards – DD, 70.52% – GIR
• Other – Not quite the follow up to back-to-back Top 10’s that I had hoped, but Kruger made the cut and snuck in for a placing bonus last week. Having only missed one cut over five years ago, I think Kruger makes for an interesting HuLo play in cash and a legitimate GPP play as he was only 16% owned last week and didn’t make a huge splash where people will want to tail last week’s performance.

ALSO CONSIDER – Angelo Que (DK $7,200) has made his last three cuts at this event and finished 2nd two years ago, which followed a 5th place finish the year before. He hasn’t teed it up in a couple weeks, but prior to his short break he had made the cut in 3/6 and finished 11th and 8th during that span. Peter Uihlein (DK $6,400) is far too talented of a golfer to be priced this low and should be completely healed after wrist surgery. I think this is a great spot to take him in GPP’s as many will see the three missed cuts in his last four months and probably pick someone else. Lin Wen-Tang (DK $5,900) has ample course history (three missed cuts, four Top 25’s including a 7th and a win) and can provide enough upside at this price as long as he makes the cut. This play is primarily a nationality play, with course history and current form backing the gut call.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Gregory Bourdy (DK $8,400)
• Course History: 35th – 22nd – 53rd – 11th – Win – 81st – MC – 11th
• Form: MC – 35th – 20th – 31st – 52nd
• Stats: 70.91 – Scoring Avg, 67.50% – DA, 280.94 yards – DD, 71.41% – GIR
• Other – Bourdy killed every lineup I had him in last week and was the only player to miss the cut in those lineups so needless to say I was a bit tilted on Thursday after he posted his round. The worst part is I ended up bubbling on GPP’s on those same teams which means had he just made the freaking cut, it would’ve been a profitable week. Bourdy was 30%+ owned last week and I assume that percent will be cut in half this week because recency bias will make players choose golfers that played well last week in the same price range. His history here indicates he’s going to bounce back and I’m more than willing to let him redeem himself.

Pablo Larrazabal (DK $8,300)
• Course History: 8th – MC – MC – 22nd – 4th
• Form: 23rd – 52nd – 39th – 8th – MC
• Stats: 70.98 – Scoring Avg, 57.06% – DA, 286.20 yards – DD, 69.32% – GIR
• Other – Pablo was featured here last week and we’re going back to the well again. He’s let us down in previous “riding the warm hand” situations as of late, but I still think he makes for a fine GPP play again mainly due to how many looks at birdies he’s been giving himself over the last month of play.

ALSO CONSIDER – Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,900) has the ability to win you GPP’s every week he tees it up. He’s still riding a pretty solid hot streak since August having not missed a cut and finished in the Top 10 in three of his last eight events. Even his “bad performances” have resulted in Top 15 finishes. David Lipsky (DK $8,500) is a name some may be familiar with as he’s popped up in this article during the fall swing on the Euro Tour. His finishes here have been less than desired, but he won on a similar course (Crans – Swiss Alps) and keeps the ball in the fairway. Jazz Janewattananond (DK $6,500) is my dart throw of the week. He’s been under par in six of eight rounds on this course and on Sunday was sitting in 2nd place at the Panasonic Open. Unfortunately he shot a Sunday 79 which dropped him down to 30th, but it’s the fourth time in five starts he’s been on the first page of the leaderboard; eventually players use these disappointments as learning experiences and grow from them.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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