Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Hero World Challenge

OVERVIEW

Since this is an extremely limited field, I’d like to lead off by saying DO NOT PLAY CASH GAMES this week. If for some reason one of the six players in your lineup gets a fluke injury or washes up on shore after a night of beverages, your cash team will be sunk and you will probably tilt enter some other contests (which is a bad move regardless of the sport you’re playing) to try to win your money back. Also, since this is an extremely small field I don’t recommend fading any one player completely unless you’re only playing one lineup. That being said, if you wanted to fade Tiger altogether I wouldn’t say that’s a bad play. He is a member at the course so maybe that also played into his decision to return to “competitive” golf this week. Either way, the event gives us an opportunity to make some money, so let’s get into the plays!

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Albany, New Providence
• Par: 72
• Yardage: Played at 7,267 yard last year, but can play up to 7,400 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
• Location: The Bahamas
• Expected scoring: Should be a birdie fest as this event is supposed to be a fun getaway for the players. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Spieth’s record of -26 get beaten this week.   
• Past Champion:
• 2016: Bubba Watson -25 over Patrick Reed [-22]

 

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – SG:OTT, SG:APP, SG:T2G, SG:APP, Birdie Or Better
• Important – Scrambling

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STARS:

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200)

• Course History: 15^th      
• Form: 35^th – 6^th
• Stats: 2^nd – SG:OTT, 26^th – SG:APP, 36^th – SG:P, 3^rd – SG:T2G, 2^nd – DD, 43^rd – GIR, 1^st – Birdie Avg, 70^th – Scrambling, 1^st – BoB%
• Other – DJ & Paulina in the Bahamas, this should be an entertaining week on social media. First off, let’s not ignore the picture of Tiger & Paulina at the Ryder Cup celebration party. There have been several rumors about Tiger & Paulina over the past few years, but most of them have been just that. As much as I’d like to play DJ this week, I think there’s too many things to take his focus away from a charity event for him to get up for this one and I’ll be extremely underweight on him. I just don’t see how he gets excited enough to win this event and could easily see him placing outside the Top 10 again this year. His stats backup the fact that he should dominate, as he did on basically every course he played last season, but again it’s the “effort” thing that concerns me.

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,300)

• Course History: 4^th
• Form: Win – 17^th
• Stats: 32^nd – SG:OTT, 87^th – SG:APP, 26^th – SG:T2G, 2^nd – SG:P, 51^st – DD, 145^th – GIR, 3^rd – Birdie Avg, 9^th – Scrambling, 4^th – BoB%
• Other – Spieth’s win in his last event didn’t come on the PGA Tour, but a win is a win and he actually had to play some golf during the Emirates Australian Open beating Ashley Hall & Cameron Smith in a playoff. Spieth’s record at this event is good with the 4^th place finish in the debut at the new course and setting the tournament record for lowest score the year before. I think he takes these events a bit more seriously than others, and for good reason. Spieth needs to set the tone for Kapalua.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,900)

• Course History: 17^th
• Form: Win – Win – 2^nd – Win – 5^th
• Stats: 17^th – SG:OTT, 3^rd – SG:APP, 6^th – SG:T2G, 103^rd – SG:P, 65^th – DD, 35^th – GIR, 4^th – Birdie Avg, 46^th – Scrambling, 6^th – BoB%
• Other – Mats has three wins in his last four events and even more impressive is the fact that he’s finished in the Top 5 in his last five. The caveat here is that two of the wins came on the Japan Tour, and the HSBC Champions was about as weak of a field event as you could get, but like Spieth’s win in Australia I’m not discounting it at all. Matsuyama tied for last place last year with Anirban Lahiri but it was mainly due to his first two rounds of shooting over par. I’d expect him to start more like he finished (66) this year as he’s been pretty dialed in the past month.

ALSO CONSIDER – Henrik Stenson (DK $9,400) has been playing a lot of golf on the European Tour so the fatigue factor might be in play this week. He’s got three Top 10’s in his last three events, but he was also grinding out those finishes trying to capture the Race to Dubai title. Stenson is an elite player with all-around game so the fact that he didn’t play here last year may have others looking to play Brooks & Reed over him. I’ll be over weight on Stenson this week as a result of that. Brooks Koepka (DK $8,900) finished 7^th last year and if not for a 2^nd round 70, he would’ve been even closer to eventual winner, Bubba Watson. If Brooks can shoot at least one round under 65 this week he should finish inside the top three. He’ll be a popular play this week, so if you’re looking to fade the chalk, he’d be the guy to do so. I’ll have a hard time doing it personally. Patrick Reed (DK $8,600) finished 2^nd last year and has some less than desirable form coming in (albeit a month removed from his last competitive round). Coming off of time away from golf he’s been a bit of a slow starter, but if you know anything about Reed you know that he’s motivated by the Big Cat and I expect to see some more low scores out of him this week. He’s another player I’ll be overweight on this week.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Justin Rose (DK $8,200)

• Tournament History: 13^th
• Form: No events in the last 10 weeks
• Stats: 5^th – SG:OTT, 39^th – SG:APP, 134^th – SG:P, 5^th – SG:T2G, 16^th – DD, 40^th – GIR, 21^st – Birdie Avg, 102^nd – Scrambling, 23^rd – BoB%
• Other – Rose is a member here and when you combine that with the fact that people don’t like him in general, his lack of current form and his subpar performance last year you get a very nice GPP play on a ball striker who hits fairly high in most categories. Remember the Olympics in Rio? Nobody really gave him a chance in that field and with the help of a hole in one, he was able to claim gold. I will have a ton of exposure to Rose this week.

Bubba Watson (DK $7,600)

• Tournament History: Win
• Form: 54^th – 10^th
• Stats: 3^rd – SG:OTT, 40^th – SG:APP, 165^th – SG:P, 4^th – SG:T2G, 4^th – DD, 18^th – GIR, 48^th – Birdie Avg, 176^th – Scrambling, 36^th – BoB%
• Other – Bubba’s win here last year came as a surprise to me primarily because I didn’t think he cared much for these types of events; boy was I wrong. Bubba’s length off the tee on open tracks gives him a huge advantage as it leaves him with a lot of short wedges into the greens on par 4’s as well as ample opportunities to get home in two on Par 5’s. He’s a threat this week to repeat, even though I don’t think he does. I still think he has the ability to exceed his price and should be part of your core this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Rickie Fowler (DK $7,900) played much better than I expected during the world golf event last week, but I’m having a hard time deciphering whether or not that has more to do with being partnered with his old (emphasis on old) buddy Jimmy Walker or if the course actually suited his game. Rickie finished 3^rd here last year after opening with a 70 and scored better in each of his following rounds (68, 65, 54). I really like Fowler as a wild card this week and will be making him part of my core. Russell Knox (DK $7,400) is one player I’d like to make a core play as well this week, but I’m not sure if I can based on how pure ball strikers who lack length off the tee faired here last year. There’s no doubt he’s rolling right now and he basically carried the Scottish team during the World Golf event last week. I’m torn as of writing this, so if you were planning on making him a core play go with it. Matt Kuchar (DK $7,000) will probably be more focused on the extracurricular activities than the golf this week as we’ve seen a dip in his production when traveling to vacation destinations for golf tournaments; MC @ Safeway (Wine Country), T68 @ Mayakoba last year (Viva La Mexico), MC @ API (Disneyworld) – ok maybe the last one was a stretch, but I still stand by the fact that I think being underweight on Kuchar this week is a smart play. His value lies in events where there’s a cut.  

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,900) 

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 16^th – 10^th – 11^th – 17^th – 26^th – 10^th
• Stats: 28^th – SG:OTT, 64^th – SG:APP, 48^th – SG:T2G, 108^th – SG:P, 67^th – DD, 27^th – GIR, 26^th – Birdie Avg, 156^th – Scrambling, 35^th – BoB%
• Other – That current form looks very inviting. The only issue I have with putting too much stock in the results is the field strength, but Grillo’s overall skill trumps any kind of hesitance I may have. Grillo is a ball striker whose success depends on the temperature of his putter. When he’s on, he’s really on. Love him this week and will have somewhere around 50% exposure this week.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $6,400)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: MC – 77^th – 28^th
• Stats: 94^th – SG:OTT, 76^th – SG:APP, 33^rd – SG:P, 51^st – SG:T2G, 75^th – DD, 90^th – GIR, 21^st – Birdie Avg, 16^th – Scrambling, 32^nd – BoB%
• Other – Sneds is a savvy vet who primarily putts much better on poa greens than Bentgrass or Bermuda. Looking at his stats through three rounds this year, where he’s played predominantly on Bermuda greens, he currently ranks 15^th in SG: Putting. I know the sample size is small, but when people consider a player a “bad Bermuda putter” they will opt for players around him making him an excellent leverage play for tournaments; and that’s exactly what I like in Sneds this week. He plays smart golf, keeps it in the fairway and looks to be in the zone statistically with the putter. 30% ownership on Sneds will be my target this week and I think you should be somewhere in the 20-30% if you really want to make your mark in GPPs at this low price.

ALSO CONSIDER – Louis Oosthuizen (DK $7,200) & JB Holmes (DK $6,800) both bomb the ball off the tee and have issues with their putters. Priced similarly, if choosing between one or the other I think Louis would be my pick. People are hesitant to roster him especially in no cut events because recency bias with him. The thing is, he hasn’t withdrawn from an event since the 2015 Tour Championship, apparently some people just can’t let things go. He should see a fairly small ownership percentage this week and has a ton of upside. Holmes on the other hand will probably garner more ownership because there is less perceived risk with the play at a cheaper cost so based solely on that, I’ll have more King Louis lineups than JB. Jimmy Walker (DK $6,500) posted three of four rounds in the sixties last year and played well with partner Rickie Fowler last week in Australia. Again, I’m not sure if that’s the partnership getting optimal results in a team atmosphere or if he’s found his game, but at $6,500 I’m more than willing to roster him over the likes of Zach Johnson or Tiger Woods (which pains me to say). I tried to leave off one player in this article, so I guess that leaves me with writing up the host, Tiger Woods (DK $6,600). Zach Johnson is a boring golfer to me, and I struggle to find good things to write about him, so HE GONE! Big Cat returns to competition since the Wyndham Championship where he played well for three days and couldn’t hold it together shooting a final round 70. That was August of 2015, it’s now November/December of 2016 and he hasn’t played a real competitive round of golf yet. He finished DFL in 2014 of his own event which was the icing on the cake for his 2014 season as well. I just don’t see how you can invest your hard earned money on him this week. It’s definitely a week to take a “wait and see” approach with him.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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