Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview – Greenbrier Classic

Another week is upon us and if you are reading this you survived the massacre that was last Friday and the cut-line. We hope that you were able to get the majority of your players through the cut in DFS, but if you were not, do not feel too bad. Here are some numbers from Draftkings that show you just how impossible it was to get all six guys or even five guys through the cut:

In the $3 PGA $300K Drive the Green [$100,000 to 1st] Only 2,019 teams had six guys that made it through the cut out of 110,646 teams in the contest, which equals 1.8%. Crazy.

In the $300 PGA $100K 3-Wood [$20,000 to 1st] Only 4 teams had six guys that made it through the cut out of 370 teams in the contest, or 1%. And only an additional 47 teams had 5 guys through, every other team had 4 guys or less, so only 12% of teams had 5 or six guys playing this weekend, everybody else has 4 or less.

Out of our 14 recommended players last week, 8 made the cut, which is not too shabby, but overall we were not real happy with the results and will work harder and longer to make sure we get back to the winning weeks we have enjoyed throughout the season. A week like this helps stress the fact that we need good bankroll management. There are going to be outlying weeks like this every once and a while and we need to stay alive for the majority of the weeks that are winners. Our stud picks were very solid. We recommended Bubba Watson in most formats, but said that it would probably be best to fade him in DFS because of his price. Well just about the worst case scenario happened and he won the tournament. Here is some interesting information that will reiterate our stance on fading the high priced favorite. Despite the fact that Bubba won the tournament, 9 teams in the top 20 in the $300 GPP with 370 entrants did not have Watson on their roster including teams that finished in 3rd and 5th place. The winner actually had both Watson and Casey, the runner-up. So even in the worst situation where the highest priced player wins the tournament, you would still have a real good chance even if you faded him. If he finishes anywhere but in the Top 5, which will happen more times than not, you would have been very well off to fade him. Now how about the $3 GPP with 110,000 teams. This is obviously a different scenario, where you pretty much need to hit a perfect lineup. This week’s winning roster was Watson (1st), Casey (2nd), Harmon (3rd), Snedeker (10th), Anderson(15th), and Knost (39th). That shows you just how perfect you need to hit your roster to win one of those huge GPPs. The interesting thing that we found is that six of the Top 20 teams did not have Watson. That was very surprising to us. We would have thought that everybody in at least the Top 20 would have had to have Watson in a field this large, especially considering he was owned by 21% of the field. What do we take away from this? Well we would say that in super large GPPs like the $3 GPP with 100,000 entrants we will pretty much need to have the winner (along with 3 or 4 other top guys who finish in the top 10) to win it. In smaller GPPs that have under 1,000 entrants, we still believe that the play is to fade the high priced favorite. It might happen once or twice during the year that they actually win the tournament and make us pay, but every other week we will be better off. Even when they do win, we have shown that all is not lost if you have a solid team without the favorite.
Our other stud picks Brandt Snedeker and Sergio Garcia performed ok, but not great finishing T10 and T25 respectively. Our value picks were nothing to brag about either but did have both Francesco Molinari and Brendan Steele finished T25. One of the most consistent guys on the PGA Tour over the past couple months, Kevin Na looked terrible and missed the cut and hurt many of our cash game teams. Also Justin Thomas and defending champ Kevin Streelman decided to lay eggs as well. In the most bizarre happening last week, Russell Knox played absolutely awful on Thursday and decided to withdraw from the tournament. His excuse was that he was not feeling well. His withdrawal really hurt several of our GPP and cash game teams as he was a great fit for both last week. What we lacked with our value picks we kind of made up for with our sleepers. Patrick Rodgers was awesome until Sunday when he put up a 73 and finished T39, although he did outperform his price. Also, Scott Brown started strong but faded to T54 and Jim Herman squeaked through the cut. Will Wilcox was a real disappointment as he had been playing very well coming into the Travelers. Overall not great, but not terrible.

This week the PGA Tour takes us to White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia and The Old White TPC Course for The Greenbrier Classic. It made its debut in 2010 when it replaced the long-standing Buick Open on the PGA tour schedule. The Old White course is a Par 70, measuring 7,287 yards long and features two Par 5s and four Par 3s. The average winning score over the past five years is 13 under par with the highest being -10 and the lowest being -22. The winners over the past five years have been Angel Cabrera, Jonas Blixt, Ted Potter, Jr., Scott Stallings, and Stuart Appleby. Not exactly elite talent is winning the Greenbrier Classic, so keep that in mind. In order to watch television coverage you will need to tolerate a nauseating amount of commercials featuring Bubba Watson, Denny Hamlin, and John Smoltz telling you how wonderful the Greenbrier area is and that you need to buy your vacation home there. I don’t know about you but if we saved money for the next 30 years we would probably only have about enough to afford a house there the size of Bubba Watson’s third garage stall. Nah I am good.

Much like last week there is not much depth of high quality players in the field as only six of the Top 30 in the world will be making their way to West Virginia this week. Bubba Watson, will play his second straight week and try and keep rolling after winning last week at The Travelers. Tiger Woods will also be playing this week and try and prove that he is still capable of competing on the PGA Tour after some embarrassing performances thus far this year. Tiger has played in this tournament once before in 2012 when he missed the cut.

The meaningful statistics this week just so happen to be very similar to those that were important last week. Next to strokes gained tee-to-green, the statistic that proves the most important in determining success this week is greens in regulation. Upon analyzing the past five years results, year after year the top finishers consistently are near the top in greens in regulation. As a matter of fact, last year Angel Cabrera and George McNeill finished first and second in greens in regulation as well as the standings. Another stat that we will be looking closely at this week is Par 4 scoring. Last year, of the 12 players who ranked the best in Par 4 scoring, nine of them finished in the Top 10. Prior year’s show the same importance of Par 4 scoring. One of the more surprising findings from last year was how little of a factor putting was in success. Last year of the Top 15 in the standings, eight of them were outside the best 25 putters. Cabrera and McNeill were tied for the 29th best putters on the week. In 2013, nine of the Top 15 were not in the best 25 putters, although the winner Jonas Blixt did finish as the best putter and in 2012 putting was a large factor as of the Top 6 players in the standings, five of them were amongst the seven best putters in the field. This week we will recognize strokes gained putting, but it will not hold as much weight as the other stats.
Last year Angel Cabrera won his first tournament that was not a major, by shooting a 64-64 over the weekend to hold off George McNeill’s closing 61 for a two-shot victory. Cabrera, had birdies on #11 and #12 and a hole-out for eagle at #13 to build a three-shot lead before a pair of late bogeys shrunk the lead a bit, but . But Cabrera reached the green in two on the way to a birdie at the 616-yard, par-5 17th and parred his final hole. McNeill finished runner-up and Webb Simpson in 3rd.

One of the factors that needs to be analyzed this week and every week is tournament history. When you look at our tournament history page you will see a lot of guys who have had success on this course in this tournament. For a complete tournament history for every player click here to go to our tournament history page.

Also, be sure to check out our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, as it helps identify some outstanding values on daily fantasy sites when compared to how a consensus of sportsbooks rank them.

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, and more, become a premium member.

 

Brian Harmon and Mike Weir have both withdrawn from The Greenbrier and Will Wilcox and Partrick Rodgers are now in the field. Both are included in Draftkings pricing. As a side note, the pricing on DK is extremely tight this week. Generally when it is this tough we like to become more balanced with our lineups. This tournament this is especially the case because the bottom end talent is so weak that it will be tough to find low-dollar guys that can perform well. For example, just rostering one high end guy like Bubba Watson limits you to an average of $7,400 per player for the rest of your team. Finding five guys around that price that are going to make the cut will be tough enough much less getting them to finish Top 30.

 

Top Stud Picks:

 

Bubba Watson- Well, Well, Well, here we go again with Mr. Watson. Last week he was our top stud pick and we proved correct. This week he heads to the place where he has one of his vacation homes, Greenbrier. We think that is probably overdone the fact that he maintains a vacation home here. He looked really good last week at The Travelers and there is not much reason to think that he will not continue his solid play this week. Before his win, he missed the cut at The U.S Open, placed T42 at The Players, T38 at The Masters, and T29 at the Shenzhen Open on the European Tour. He has not had the same success in the past here at the Greenbrier as he has had at The Travelers. In his two appearances, he has a 16th last year and 30th in 2013. He ranks 4th in driving distance, 124th in driving accuracy, 100th in greens in regulation, and 8th in strokes gained tee-to-green. Our advice will be the same this week as last week. In season long leagues if you did not pull the trigger last week like we told you to, go ahead and do it this week. For you DFS players, we still like the fade of Bubba. As we discussed earlier in the article, many more times than not he is not going to pay off his high price. Even when he does go on to win the tournament, you still have a chance with a solidly built lineup without him. This is because the high salary makes it so difficult to roster other guys that will perform well at such a cheap price. (GPP only in large contests that require you your roster to be near perfect but fade him in all others)

Bill Haas- Always steady, Bill Haas looks like a no-brainer pick this week. A solid tournament history with a 23rd last year, 9th in 2013, 33rd in 2012, and runner-up in 2011. He did miss the cut at Chambers Bay, but before then he had a T18 at The Memorial, T68 at Wells Fargo, and T4 at The Players. Haas ranks 105th in driving distance, 68th in driving accuracy, 42nd in greens in regulation, 32nd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 133rd in strokes gained putting, and 26th in Par 4 scoring. The only red flag that we see with Haas this week is his ownership in DFS. He looks to be one of those guys that will command a lot of attention and a high ownership. Obviously cash games are a go for Haas, but you might want to fade him on a couple of lineups if you are doing multiple in DFS. (GPP and Cash Games, but keep in mind that he will most likely be highly owned in GPPs)

J.B Holmes- Basically a Boom or Bust play all season long, Holmes is your prototypical GPP player for you DFS players. His last ten tournaments resulted in T27 at the U.S Open, MC at Wells Fargo, T51 at The Players, T9 at WGC Match Play, MC at the Masters, won the Shell Houston Open, MC at Arnold Palmer, runner up at WGC Cadillac, T22 at Northern Trust, and T10 at Pebble Beach. He has had some decent, but not sensational results at The Greenbrier in the past with a 23rd last year, 27th in 2012, MC in 2011, and 16th in 2010. We all know that Holmes is a long-ball hitter, ranking 7th in driving distance, 102nd in greens in regulation, 11th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 40th in Par 4 scoring. Holmes is not very accurate off the tee ranking 165th and not great putting either ranking 152nd. If you are playing season long leagues, and you have not used Holmes, this might be a good spot. If you are a DFS player, take your shot with him in GPPs but not cash games because he far too volatile. (GPP only)

Webb Simpson- On a course that benefits ball strikers and does not penalize as much poor putters, this place might as well be Mecca for Webb Simpson. 35th in greens in regulation, 34th in driving accuracy, 84th in driving distance, 7th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 174th in strokes gained putting. Simpson has made 12 cuts in 14 events this season with 6 Top 25s and 4 Top 10s. He has a T46 at the U.S Open, MC at FedEx St Jude, runner up at Wells Fargo, and T66 at The Players in his last four tournaments. As if his stats were not enough to demonstrate how good of a course The Old White TPC Course is for Simpson, his tournament history does- 3rd last year, 41st in 2013, 7th in 2012, and 9th in 2011. Simpson looks like a great bet to finish near the top this week. (GPP and Cash games)

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Kevin Kisner- There are not too many guys in the world that have played as well as Kisner has over the past 3 months. Since he missed the cut at the Shell Houston Open, he has strung together a runner up at RBC Heritage, T28 at Zurich, runner-up at The Players, T38 at Wells Fargo, T5 at Crowne Plaza, T8 at The Memorial, and T12 at U.S Open. Those results make him such an incredible high floor, high ceiling type of player. The one concern is that he has three appearances here at the Greenbrier and has missed the cut all three times. We have to keep in mind that Kisner has never been on such an influencial run or played as good of golf as he has this season. Generally, we use current form as an overriding factor and we will in this case as well. There is nothing that this course features that Kisner’s game does not possess. He ranks 125th in driving distance, 18th in driving accuracy, 67th in greens in regulation, 50th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 52nd in strokes gained putting, and 26th in Par 4 scoring. (GPP and Cash Games)

Brendon Todd- We think we have established that Todd will not be a part of our British Open recommendations having completely bombed in his first two majors this year, looking really bad. Outside of those two events he has played pretty consistently making 14 cuts in 18 events played with seven Top 25s and three Top 10s. Outside of his missed cut at The U.S Open he took 17th at The Memorial, MC at Byron Nelson, T43 at Crowne Plaza, T51 at The Players, and 4th at RBC Heritage. Last week he played very well shooting 67-70-67-67 to finish T15 at The Travelers. He has played in this tournament twice before and finished 46th in 2012 and 4th last year. Todd ranks 189th in driving distance, 10th in driving accuracy, 89th in greens in regulation, 43rd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 13th in strokes gained putting, and 67th in Par 4 scoring. The Old White TPC Course is a great fit for Todd’s game and he looks to be a great play in all formats this week with some momentum coming in from last week. (GPP and Cash Games)

George McNeill- Chambers Bay proved to be too much for McNeill to handle as he missed the cut for the first time in over three months. That is o.k. because The Old White TPC is not at all like Chambers Bay and much like a lot of the courses, McNeill has played so well on thus far this season. Since mid-March, he has recorded five Top 20s in ten events played, including a T12 at Zurich, T17 at The Players, T5 at Crowne Plaza, and T13 at The Memorial. McNeill ranks 121st in driving distance, 62nd in driving distance, 135th in greens in regulation, 65th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 38th in strokes gained putting, and 40th in Par 4 scoring. The last two years here at the Greenbrier, McNeill had a 17th in 2013 and runner-up last year. During the tournament last year, McNeill was dealing with the fact that his sister was in the final stage of her fight against cancer and actually passed away shortly after. McNeill currently ranks 9th in our Who’s Hot rankings showing just how great he has performed this season. (GPP and Cash Games)

Daniel Berger- The last we saw of Berger, we were being disappointed by him blowing up at The Memorial. There is a decent chance he does the same this week at the Greenbrier. There is also a decent chance he ends up in the Top 10. That is just Daniel Berger’s style, he is boom or bust. In his last six events played he has three missed cuts, a T10 at Byron Nelson, T28 at Wells Fargo, and T6 at Zurich. Berger also has a runner up at the Honda Classic, and T10s at Phoenix Open and Pebble Beach. He is an explosive player and he has the ability to score, which is important in this tournament. Berger has never appeared at the Greenbrier. He ranks 17th in Par 4 scoring, 15th in driving distance, 21st in greens in regulation, and 28th in strokes gained tee-to-green. Berger is a great play on daily sites, like Draftkings that overweight birdies and eagles in comparison to punishing for bogeys. (GPP only)

Shawn Stefani- A really solid season for a guy we have recommended quite a few times in this preview. Stefani has made 15 cuts in 19 events played with nine Top 25s and three Top 10s. He has now had a couple weeks of rest as his last appearance was FedEx St Jude, where he missed the cut. Before that he had a T40 at The Memorial, T19 at Crowne Plaza, and T9 at Wells Fargo. He has two appearances here at Greenbrier and had a 59th in 2013 and 35th last year. His strengths line up well with what it takes to succeed here ranking 35th in driving distance, 110th in driving accuracy, 31st in greens in regulation, 60th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 38th in strokes gained putting, and 22nd in Par 4 scoring. A very consistent guy who will most likely make the cut and could give you a Top 20, we will take it. (GPP and Cash Games)

Robert Streb- A T42 at the U.S Open was not an outstanding result, but it also was not horrible on that course with that strength of field. Streb has been on a bit of a roll again with a T18 at Memorial, T19 at Crowne Plaza, T4 at Wells Fargo, and T30 at The Players, after an early season slump. He has the game to finish high as he has shown with six Top 10s this season including a win at MacGladrey in the fall. He currently ranks 45th in driving distance, 126th in driving accuracy, 18th in greens in regulation, 36th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 34th in strokes gained putting, and 17th in Par 4 scoring. His tournament history is not sterling, but then again he has never played as well in his career as he has this year. He took 71st last year and 41st in 2013. He fits the bill as a good high floor, high ceiling guy this week at The Greenbrier. (GPP and Cash Games)

Patrick Rodgers- We really like Patrick Rodgers here at FGI and we recommended him last week. He was in the hunt at the beginning of Sunday’s round, but a final round 73 made him plummet in the standings. He finished T39, which was still fine for his price. That Sunday setback gives us the opportunity to pick him again at a reasonable price. Rodgers finished runner-up at Wells Fargo. Since then he has finished T74 at Crowne Plaza, MC at Byron Nelson, T40 at The Memorial, and T29 at FedEx St JudeHe has played the Greenbrier last year for the first time and finished 45th. He ranks 4th in driving distance, 185th in driving accuracy, 136th in greens in regulation, 71st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 91st in strokes gained putting, and 60th in total strokes gained. (Mostly GPP)

Kevin Chappell- This seems like a pretty good spot for Chappell to break out. Over the past month and a half he has been in the mix, but not able to break through. A T46 at the U.S Open, T22 at FedEx St Jude, T49 at The Memorial, T19 at Crowne Plaza, T16 at Wells Fargo in his last five events following three missed cuts. His history in this tournament is much the same hovering but hasn’t broken through yer with a 16th last year, 41st in 2013, and 17th in 2012, MC in 2011. HE ranks 54th in driving distance, 80th in driving accuracy, 122nd in greens in regulation, 119th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 103rd in strokes gained putting, and 86th in par 4 scoring. He has missed eight cuts this season so he is a bit volatile, but if you look at our Who’s Hot rankings, you will see he is a streaky player and often strings together sold finishes. Everything seems to be lining up for Chappell to breakout one of these weeks and it could be this one. (Mostly GPP because of amount of cuts this season)

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Jon Curran- Another nice result for Curran last week at The Travelers taking T10, this after a T53 at FedEx St Jude, T6 at Byron Nelson, and T33 at Crowne Plaza. This will be Curran’s first appearance here. He is a very accurate player off the tee ranking 28th in driving accuracy, 69th in greens in regulation, 99th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 61st in Par 4 scoring. He has been the model of consistency over his last four events, not having shot worse than a 72 in any round during that time. Even though he had a nice performance last week, he will most likely still be under most people’s radar. (Mostly GPP)

Ken Duke- The “Duker” has obviously found something in his game since he missed six cuts between the end of March and the end of May. Since then he has strung together solid performances of T34 at Byron Nelson, T65 at The Memorial, T29 at FedEx St Jude, and T10 at the Travelers last week. He has finished 73rd in this tournament last year, mc in 2013 and 7th in 2012. HE ranks 178th in driving distance, 35th in driving accuracy, 173rd in greens in regulation, 156th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 106th in strokes gained putting, and 117th in Par 4 scoring. We could have just said his stats stink. However he is playing well and if you are looking for a guy to round out your roster that is a cheap option and can make the cut, take a shot on the “Duker”

Peter Uihlein- Before we talk about this guy, we need to preface this as a total shot in the dark, $3 GPP type play. He is a 26 year old guy out of Oklahoma State who won the 2010 Amateur Championship at Chambers Bay. He played last week at The Travelers and there was a little attention on him, but he let those people down with a missed cut. So anybody who did not like him last week will not like him this week and those that did like him last week certainly will not like him last week. Do you see what we are getting at? Nobody is going to own this guy. Why should we? Well he is capable of making a run as he has a few Top 10s this year including a T4 at Sanderson Farms, T8 at Volvo and T4 at Shenzhen on the European Tour in April. He ranks 59th on the European Tour in greens in regulation, 90th in putting, and 200th in driving accuracy. Let us be clear, he has about a 50/50 chance of making the cut, but if you are doing a bunch of $3 teams on Draftkings you might want to mix him in. He was not awful last week shooting a 72-70 and now with a week of gold in the U.S under his belt he may feel more comfortable. (GPP only)

As always best of luck to all of you and be sure to let us know how you are doing!

-Fantasy Golf Insider