Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- FedEx St Jude Classic

OVERVIEW

• The Course
• TPC Southwind
• Par: 70 (two Par 5’s, four Par 3’s)
• Yardage: 7,244
• Greens: Bermuda (tough to hit greens)
• Location: Memphis, TN
• Expected scoring: Looking at previous results, if a player can average two to three under par per day they have a good shot at winning the tournament (with the two outlier years being 2009 & 2008). Also when looking at previous winners and runners up, the course doesn’t play into the hands of bombers (Dustin Johnson & Harris English being the two winners who bomb it off the tee) so we’ll be looking at ball strikers primarily for our winner. The fairways at Southwind are fairly difficult to hit, so I wouldn’t get too wrapped up in just looking at the top of the rankings in driving accuracy this week and instead focus on how your favorite players are gaining strokes overall (SG:OTT [off the tee], SG:APP [approach], SG: ARG [around the green] and Putting). One last note that warrants mentioning, over the past 5 years there have been 29 mid tournament withdrawals mainly due to where this event falls in the players schedule (2014 had the most WD’s with 12, due to the weather), so it may be a sharp play to make a lineup or two that doesn’t include any players currently in the field at Oakmont next week.
• Past Champions (dating back to 2005):
• 2015 – Fabian Gomez -13
• 2014 – Ben Crane -10
• 2013 – Harris English -12
• 2012 – Dustin Johnson -9
• 2011 – Harrison Frazer -13 (playoff over Robert Karlsson)
• 2010 – Lee Westwood -10 (playoff over Robert Garrigus & Robert Karlsson)
• 2009 – Brian Gay -18
• 2008 – Justin Leonard -4 (2x winner) (playoff over Robert Allenby & Trevor Immelman)
• 2007 – Woody Austin -13
• 2006 – Jeff Maggert -9

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KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring
• Important – Scrambling, SG:Putting, P4 Birdie or Better %, P5 Birdie or Better %, Par 3 Birdie or Better %

 

THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS:

STARS:

Dustin Johnson (DK $12,800)

• Course History: WD – 24^th– 10^th – 1st
• Form: 3^rd (Memorial) – 12^th (Byron) – T28 (PLAYERS) – T4 (Masters) – 3^rd (Shell) – T14 (WGC – Cadillac)
• Stats: 3^rd SG:OTT, 28^th SG:APP, 7^th SG:T2G, 48^th SG:Putting, 3^rd Driving Distance, 3^rd Birdie Avg, 26^th Proximity to hole, 73^rd Scrambling, 3^rd Birdie or Better Conversion %, 11^th P3 BoB, 4^th P4 BoB
• Other – DJ will forever be in this article as long as he doesn’t WD prior to the tournament mainly due to his 100% made cut percentage thus far this year and his extreme upside. Yes, last week was disappointing, but DJ hit some wayward drives that really put him behind the 8ball on approach shots on a very tough golf course. The concern of the WD is relevant, as well as fading the highest priced player in the field, but I’d be a moron not to mention him this week.

 

Phil Mickelson (DK $11,300)

• Course History: 3^rd – 11^th – 2^nd – 58^th
• Form: T20 (Memorial) – MC (PLAYERS) – T4 (WF) – MC (Valero) – MC (Masters) – T13 (Shell) – 5^th (WGC Cadillac)
• Stats: 10^th SG:APP, 12^th SG:ARG, 16^th SG:T2G, 3^rd SG:Putting, 4^th SG:Total, 9^th Birdie Avg, 20^th Going for the Green Birdie or Better, 12^th Scrambling, 7^th Birdie or Better Conversion
• Other – Aside from DJ, Phil’s had some really good success at Southwind. We all know he likes to tee it up the week before a major to keep his mind focused on tournament golf rather than practice. Statistically the best he’s been in the past 5 years so he may be a popular play (when isn’t he?), but my concern lies within how he scores after round 1 as is the case with players teeing it up the week before a major. That being said, he has never MC’d here, and his 58^th place finish in 2009 shows he’ll grind it out even if his focus is on Oakmont.

 

Brooks Koepka (DK $11,100)

• Course History: 3^rd – 19th
• Form: 2^nd (Byron) – T35 (PLAYERS) – MC (Valero) – T21 (Masters) – MC (Shell) – T23 (WGC Cadillac)
• Stats: 8^th SG:OTT, 40^th SG:T2G, 9^th Driving Distance, 42^nd GIR, 16^th Scoring Avg, 96^th Proximity to Hole
• Other – Brooks had a shot at winning his second tournament back at the Byron Nelson, but ultimately came up short losing in a playoff to Sergio Garcia. After taking the Memorial off, BK comes in with good form and even better course history and thoughts of last year’s disappointing 3^rd place finish (Brooks had the lead after 36 holes and couldn’t hold off Fabian Gomez). Brooks will no doubt be a popular play this week, but I’m not sure if the strategic fade is the play here since people will be scared of the DJ WD & who knows how Phil will be treating this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Ryan Palmer ($10,800) – #TeamCH 22^nd-32^nd-4^th-3^rd-MC-MC-MC-10^th, got rocked while trying to qualify for the US Open and needs to climb two spots to get in now #Motivation, Gary Woodland ($10,400) – like Palmer, Woodland is on the outside looking in for the US Open and playing some phenomenal golf, Daniel Berger (DK $10,100) – Saturday 76 at Memorial derailed him, should bounce back with low-ish ownership.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Charles Howell III (DK $9,400)   

• Course History: MC – 28^th – 39^th – 27^th – 3^rd – 44^th – MC – MC
• Form: T48 (Memorial) – T4 (Byron) – MC (PLAYERS) – MC (WF) – T11 (Zurich) – T23 (Heritage) – T7 (Shell)
• Stats: 76^th SG:OTT, 22^nd SG:ARG, 42^nd SG:T2G, 26^th SG:Total, 11^th Scoring Avg, 12^th Going for Green – BoB, 23^rd Scrambling, 35^th P4 BoB, 15^th P5 BoB
• Other – I’m not worried about the missed cuts here, even though last year’s was a bit disappointing. Howell’s game and the way he takes advantage of these types of fields (semi-weak) is how he’s made his living on Tour for over 15 years. Howell bounced back nicely after his MC at the PLAYERS to the tune of a T4 and played equally as well in a very strong field at The Memorial.

 Francesco Molinari (DK $8,100)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: MC (Memorial) – T7 (PLAYERS) – T17 (WF) – T42 (Valero) – T45 (Heritage) – T9 (API)
• Stats: 80^th SG:OTT, 31^st SG:APP, 36^th SG:ARG, 29^th SG:T2G, 47^th SG:Total, 59^th Scrambling, 20^th P5 BoB
• Other – The Italian Stallion ruined his cut made streak last week with a very subpar performance on a course that was yielding extremely low scores for two rounds. Hopefully the weekend off after traveling from Europe to the states was used to get rested and refocused to make a run this week as Moli is a very nice statistical fit for Southwind. Expect lowered ownership this week after the MC & no course history.

Will Wilcox (DK $7,400)

• Course History: 12^th – 19^th
• Form: MC (D&D) – T49 (Byron) – T72 (PLAYERS) – MC (WF) – T15 (Zurich) – T33 (Heritage) – MC (Shell)
• Stats: 53^rd Total Driving, 96^th SG:APP, 96^th SG:Putting, 64^th Total Birdies, 69^th P4 BoB
• Other – Whether he tells DFS Twitter to send, I’m all in on Wilcox this week even before looking at his course history. Will’s been a bit up and down this year, but that’s to be expected coming off a breakout rookie campaign. He recently followed me so I decided to slide his DM’s and ask him about his game and how he feels, unfortunately I didn’t get much of a response other than “hope I’m not choppin this week”, but I think that’s his reverse psychology kicking in.

ALSO CONSIDER – David Toms (DK $7,600), Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – He’ll no doubt be the chalk play by Wednesday at this price, especially considering his course history and statistical fit. Hudson Swafford (DK $7,400) – He’s been a First Round Leader front runner for a few weeks in a row now, assuming he continues to limp through the cut line he makes for a fine play. Lee McCoy ($6,700) – Fresh off losing the NCAA Championships to Oregon, McCoy showed how strong his game is at the Valspar Championships with a 4^th place finish on a course that requires the same skill set as Southwind.

 

PLAYS THAT MAY GO OVERLOOKED THIS WEEK:

 

David Hearn (DK $8,400)

• Course History: 45^th – MC – 18^th – 42^nd – 47^th – 70^th
• Form: T27 (Memorial) – T17 (D&D) – T28 (PLAYERS) – MC (WF) – T20 (Zurich) – T13 (Valero) – MC (Heritage)
• Stats: 38^th SG:APP, 77^th SG:ARG, 71^st SG:T2G, 62^nd SG:Total, 29^th Driving Accuracy, 38^th GIR, 58^th Scrambling, 13^th P3 BoB, 53^rd P4 BoB
• Other – If Hearn could’ve kept it together on Friday & Saturday at the Memorial he could’ve given me a sweat I haven’t experienced before. Instead, he shot +1 for those two days (he was -10 Thursday & Sunday) and given his price last week I’m still happy with the end result. Hearn has been playing really well on tough courses this year and in strong fields, now this week we get half of that equation in the tough course, but his history here indicates his ball striking ability is rewarded.

 

Boo Weekley (DK $8,000)

• Course History: 8^th – 46^th – 27^th – 27^th – 32^nd – 53^rd – MC – 4^th – MC
• Form: MC (D&D) – T41 (Byron) – T16 (PLAYERS) – T35 (WF) – MC (Zurich) – T39 (Heritage) – T57 (Shell)
• Stats: 14^th SG:OTT, 32^nd Driving Accuracy, 58^th GIR, 70^th Birdie Avg, 16^th Total Driving, 40^th Proximity to the Hole, 53rd ^P3 BoB, 28^th P5 BoB
• Other – According to futureoffantasy.com, Boo has gained 28.59 strokes on this course in 24 rounds (5^th most), having played 24 rounds here seems like a big enough sample size to warrant a roster spot this week.

 

 Retief Goosen (DK $7,600)

• Course History: MC – 32^nd – 3^rd – 15^th 28^th – MC – 30^th
• Form: T12 (PLAYERS) – T14 (WF) – T72 (Zurich) – T66 (Shell) – T21 (PRO) – T46 (API) – T11 (Valspar)
• Stats: 6^th SG:ARG, 27^th SG:Putting, 52^nd SG:Total, 68^th Scrambling, 26^th Total Putting, 19^th Putting Avg
• Other – Chief Tief comes in having made his last 10 consecutive cuts and has pretty decent course history too. Statistically he’s not screaming “PLAY ME”, but you can’t ignore how he’s been getting it done. If he misses the cut, it’ll be because his putter showed up ice cold.

 

ALSO CONSIDER – Matt Jones ($7,700) – 3^rd last year, went 68-68-71 Friday-Sunday at Memorial. Patrick Rodgers ($7,000) – Lit the course on fire during US Open qualifying today and like Web.com events you have to go low, so I’m hoping some of that can carry over this week.

 

CALCULATED GPP DART THROWS:

 

Colt Knost (DK $9,700)

• Course History: 12^th – MC – 15^th – MC
• Form: 67^th (D&D) – T4 (Byron) – T3 (PLAYERS) – T41 (WF) – T14 (Heritage) – T38 (Shell) – T57 (API)
• Stats: 44^th SG:APP, 31^st SG: Putting, 2^nd Driving Accuracy, 56^th GIR, 12^th Proximity to the Hole, 24^th Scrambling, 67^th P3 BoB
• Other – Colt has only missed one cut this year (Valspar) and possesses the type of game for success at Southwind. He let everyone down at the Dean & Deluca, which means ownership should be down this week and its a perfect time to go back to the Big Gravy. #TeamCourseHistory may be off of him as well due to the inconsistent finishes, but as you can see, he’s got plenty of upside and the price should keep people off.

 

Wesley Bryan (DK $9,000)

• Course History: N/A
• com Form: T16 (BMW) – T40 (Rex Hospital), T18 (United Leasing) – Win (El Bosque Mexico) – T6 (Sevientrega Championship) – T35 (Brasil Champions) – Win (Chitimacha Louisiana Open)
• Stats: 1^st Putting avg (1.63 putts), 3^rd Birdie Avg (4.59), 2^nd Scoring Avg (69.18), 97^th Driving Accuracy (64.2%), 4^th Birdie or Better Conv (38.97%), 5^th P3 Scoring (2.93), 3^rd P4 Scoring (3.94), 9^th in P3 & P4 Birdie or Better Conversion %
• Other – If you’ve never heard of Wesley Bryan, you haven’t been paying attention to one of the hottest golfers on the Web.com circuit this year. Wesley has four Top 10’s including two wins (one came with Callaway rep Hashtag Chad as his caddie, the other with his brother George on the bag – who’s also a pretty good stick) and is considered an above average ball striker and elite putter. All of this makes sense considering he’s one half of the trick shot duo Bryan Bros Golf. Of all the first timers in the field, Wesley’s got the most talent, and should reward those that are willing to play him.

 

ALSO CONSIDER – Brendan Steele (DK $7,900) – Three Top 20’s in his last four and that price is way too juicy to pass up.

 

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

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