Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- FedEx St Jude Classic

What an exciting finish in Ohio for The Memorial last week at Jack’s tournament. If any of you picked David Lingmerth to win The Memorial, please email us directly because we need you on our staff. The PGA tour moves to Memphis, Tennessee and TPC Southwind for the FedEx St Jude Classic. This tournament has been held since 1958, when it was called the Memphis open and FedEx became the title sponsor in 1986. TPC Southwind has been home for this tournament since 1989. The course is a Par 70 and measures 7,239 yards long, exactly the average length of all courses on tour this season. There are four par 3s and only 2 par 5s at TPC Southwind. Like with Muirfield last week, there will be a lot of trees to contend with along with quite a bit of water lining fairways and lurking around greens, including an island green on hole #11 that resembles #17 at TPC Sawgrass.

With the U.S Open coming next week, many top players have chosen not to play this week. A few of the big names who will use this as a tune-up for Chambers Bay include Dustin Johnson, Billy Horschel, and Phil Mickelson. Overall only six of the top 30 players in the world will be at TPC Southwind this week.

Last week was a very good week for our picks outside of a few guys that we were counting on missing the cut. Our stud picks were outstanding with Dustin Johnson rebounding from a lame first two rounds to end T13. Hideki Matsuyama and Kevin Na both finished strong and finished T5 and T13 respectively. We nailed Kevin Kisner who finished T8 and George Mcneill T13 and got Koepka, Perez, Stefani, and Streb through the cut. Now we come to those guys that made us sad on Friday afternoon, Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, and Russell Henley. Every week we try and take something away from the week prior and learn from it to make us better. Last week was a great example of what we have talked about many times when we compare the differences between cash games and GPPs (larger field tournaments) for those of you who play daily fantasy golf. Daniel Berger is our Exhibit A, the perfect example of great GPP player, but not a great cash game player. For an in-depth discussion of cash games vs GPPs please read the section How to win playing Daily. In our recommendations last week we included Berger as a good play, but in the parentheses we stated that he should only be played in GPPs. The reason is because he is a volatile player who has the ability to charge up the leaderboard and contend for a win, while at the same time he is also susceptible to missing the cut. He is very streaky and the type of player that you are willing to take a risk selecting in a GPP, but not a cash game. When you are building cash game lineups keep this in mind and select those players that are more consistent and steady (even if you are sacrificing upside) and have the best chance of making it through the cut.

Last year at the FedEx St Jude, Ben Crane went wire to wire for the win at The FedEx St Jude Classic as he started with an opening round 63 and never looked back. Storms reeked havoc on the tournament and Crane had to complete the final 12 holes of his third-round on Sunday. Crane rattled off eight straight pars that gave him a two-shot cushion heading to the final hole.

Although TPC Southwind is not the longest course on tour, it definitely favors long hitters as they will be able to clear bunkers with tee shots on many holes. In addition, water lurks in front of several greens and most players approach shots will be with middle irons (6 or 7s) but long hitters will have the luxury of using an eight or nine which will allow them to be more accurate and avoid the hazards. For these reasons we are going to be looking closely at driving distance this week. In addition those who are accurate to the green are going to have a big advantage as well so greens in regulation will be important. As we say every week, Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green is the best statistic to be analyzing when trying to predict success, for proof please read our in-depth articles: Do statistics really matter in fantasy golf.

One of the most important factors that needs to be analyzed this week at The FedEx St Jude Classic is tournament history. A few of the guys who stand out as having great tournament history include Phil Mickelson, Billy Horschel, and Ryan Palmer. For a complete tournament history for every player at the FedEx St Jude Classic, check out our tournament history page.With that being said never completely ignore current form in favor of tournament history.   If you used tournament history exclusively you might have a lineup composed of Camillo Villegas, Boo Weekley, Ben Crane, and Robert Allenby.  Use both pieces of information in your decision making.

Also, be sure to check out our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, as it helps identify some mis-priced players that present great value on the daily sites.

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Be sure to note that Robert Streb, Brendon Todd, and Y.E Yang have all withdrawn from the FedEx St Jude Classic this week. Be aware that there maybe more to come this week. We will keep you posted.

 

Top Stud Picks:

 

Dustin Johnson- You saw the explosiveness in Johnson’s game when he had a 29 on the front nine on Saturday last week at The Memorial. He finished up T13. He has also demonstrated his explosiveness by his win at The WGC Cadillac, 2nd at Northern Trust, T4 at AT&T Pebble Beach, and T8 at the AT&T Byron Nelson two weeks ago. His long game is such a good fit for TPC Southwind and he has shown that in the past with a 24th last year, 10th in 2013, and a championship in 2012. As we have said in the past, if his putting can be just average, his ball striking can win it for him. He ranks 1st in driving distance, 90th in greens in regulation, 8th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 4th in scoring average and 9th in Total Strokes Gained. He ranks 143rd in Strokes Gained Putting.(Mostly GPP because of his salary)

Ryan Palmer- A player that has made many people throw up their arms in the air over his last two appearances as he shockingly missed the cut at his home course at Colonial and then bounced back the following week and finished with a T10 at the Byron Nelson. He has the type of game that fits TPC Southwind very well ranking 13th in driving distance, 46th in greens in regulation, 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 67th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 8th in Total Strokes Gained. In his last three years at TPC Southwind he has a 32nd last year, 4th in 2013, and 3rd in 2012. Overall Palmer has made 10 of 13 cuts and eight Top 25s with his best finish being a runner-up at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. A great one-and-done play this week as he is the favorite. Also a solid DFS play as he should play well and people may still have a sour taste in their mouth from when he burned them at Colonial keeping his ownership levels down. (MOstly GPP but can be used in cash)

Billy Horschel- Not a guy who we recommend a tremendous amount, but this week looks like a prime opportunity to make a Top 10 or better. He has the distance that gets rewarded here, ranking 45th in driving distance, but is also deadly accurate to the greens ranking 10th in greens in regulation. He is 115th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 29th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 75th in Total Strokes Gained. His distance and accuracy to the greens have shown here at TPC Southwind in the past. The last two years he has two Top 10s, a 6th last year and a 10th in 2013. He made the cut in 2012 finishing 72nd and missed the cut his two appearances before that. He has been showing signs of a breakthrough lately as he had a T11 last week at The Memorial and a T13 at The Players. With the lack of top end talent here this week, we think Horschel can step up and do some damage. (GPP & Cash)

Brooks Koepka- This is the third week in a row we have recommended Koepka and he played well for us at the Byron Nelson with a T16 and then made the cut, but disappointed a bit with a poor Sunday round that dropped him to T52 last week at The Memorial. We talked last week about his ability to accumulate points in bunches on Draftkings and he did just that scoring 71 points despite not being in the Top 50. He actually ranks first in eagle on tour and 17th in birdies. Even if Koepka does not finish in the Top 10, he still scores enough points with birdies and eagles that his score looks like he did. Earlier this season Koepka won the Waste Management Phoenix Open and also added a T17 at WGC Cadillac and T33 at The Masters. His rib injury that he was dealing with earlier this season does not appear to be an issue. We like the guys who can bomb it this week and he falls in that category and ranks 9th in driving distance this season on the PGA Tour. Koepka also ranks 33rd in greens in regulation, 29th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 22th in Strokes Gained Putting, 7th in scoring average, and 11th in Total Strokes Gained. He looked good here last year as he finished up 19th. Everything makes sense for Koepka to contend this week. (GPP and cash games)

 

Top Value Plays:

 

Shawn Stefani- Another guy who we recommended last week and he had a decent showing as well with a T40. He has become one of our go to picks this year and for good reason making 15 of 18 cuts with nine Top 25s and three Top 10s. Before last week he took T19 at Crowne Plaza and T9 at Wells Fargo. He is a long hitter ranking 30th in driving distance and also hits a lot of greens ranking 28rd in greens in regulation. Stefani ranks 58th in Strokes Gained-Tee-To-Green, 3t6h in Strokes Gained Putting, and 34th in Total Strokes Gained. He did have a Top 10 at TPC Southwind with a 7th place finish in 2013 and a 63rd last year. (GPP & Cash Game)

George Mcneill- How long is this guy going to be considered a sleeper? Well as long as people continue to not pick him. Last week Mcneill barely made it through the cut, but then on the weekend turned it on and finished T13. In his last performance before that, Mcneill took T5 at Colonial, T28 at Wells Fargo, T17 at The Players, T12 at Zurich, T44 at RBC Heritage, and T20 at Valero. Unlike a lot of our recommendations this week, Mcneill is not a long ball hitter ranking 131st in driving distance. He ranks 73rd in driving accuracy, 146th in greens in regulation, 92nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 55th in Total Strokes Gained. He has made the cut at The FedEx St Jude Classic three out of the past four year (28th last year, mc in 2013, 38th in 2012, and 47th in 2011). Mcneill is playing so much better than he ever has in his career that we cannot put a lot of emphasis on tournament history. We have been recommending Mcneill for several weeks now and in Daily fantasy golf he has been extremely overlooked. Last week for the Memorial his ownership was up a bit, but we can still get in with a guy who is playing great and most people have not become wise to it. (GPP and Cash Game)

Charles Howell III– In full disclosure, we had included Robert Streb and Brendon Todd in our original recommendations before they withdrew from the tournament and we are certain that they would have finished first and second had they played. So we needed to replace those guys and CHIII is one of those sloppy seconds. Last year he was an excellent cut-maker, but this year he has already missed five cuts. He took T31 last week at the Memorial, MC at Byron Nelson, T38 at Wells Fargo, T56 at The Players, and missed the cut the two previous before that. Not exactly exhilarating finishes, but then again this field is thin and weak. CHIII ranks 17th in driving distance, which is one of our key stats this week, is 20th in greens in regulation, and 35th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. His putting stinks and ranks 140th in Strokes Gained Putting. He has played consistently at the FedEx St Jude with a 28th last year, 39th in 2013, 27th in 2012, 3rd in 2011, and 44th in 2010. According to our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool CHIII is underpriced, which presents an opportunity for us in cash games and GPPs. He is not a guy that will probably contend, but if we can get him through the cut and into the Top 30, he will be alright. (GPP and Cash Game)

Harris English- This is the opposite of a sure thing, as English has missed five cuts, but he has also played well at certain points with a T10 at Valspar, runner up at Farmers, and T3 at Sony. His last two tournaments he has a T60 at Byron Nelson and a T18 last week. We like the way English looked last week at The Memorial and think he might be trending in the right direction and no better place than TPC Southwind, where he has been victorious before (2013). He did miss the cut here last year. English’s game sets up really well for this course as he ranks 21st in driving distance, 29th in greens in regulation, 48th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 24th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 24th in Total Strokes Gained. (GPP and Cash Games)

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Will Wilcox- We are not sure if anybody has noticed how well Wilcox has played this season, but we have, and we have recommended him a couple of times already this year. Dating back to the fall he has made 6 of 8 cuts, with four Top 25s. Since the start of calendar year 2015 Wilcox has a T22 at Byron Nelson, MC at Zurich, T33 at Valspar, T6 at Puerto Rico, and T18 at Pebble Beach. His only appearance here was a 19th place last year. He only has eight events played this season, but the results from those have ranked him 76th in driving distance, 21st in driving accuracy, 5th in greens in regulation, 71st in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 58th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 54th in Total Strokes Gained. He rarely misses greens, but when he does he ranks 7th in sand save percentage. Wilcox is a good play this week and has a chance to finish high with the weaker field. (Cash Game and GPP)

Bryce Molder- With a sleeper we are mostly looking for a guy who can make the cut and accumulate points for an additional two days. Over his last five tournaments, Bryce Molder has done just that with a T15 at RBC Heritage, T33 at Zurich, T63 at The Players, T58 at Colonial, and T22 at Byron Nelson. Molder did not play here last year and missed the cut in 2013 and 2011, but did have a 24th in 2012 and a runner-up finish in 2009. The only thing Molder does well statistically is putt and ranks 14th in Strokes Gained Putting. He also ranks 148th in greens in regulation, 178th in driving distance, and 123 in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. He is a guy who know the course, has had a little success, and has been playing really consistent. (Mostly GPP)

John Merrick- Normally not one of our favorite players here at Fantasy Golf Insider, not because he is a bad guy, just because he is not that good. This year he has made 11 cuts in 18 tournaments played and only three Top 25s. He has placed in the Top 40 in his last two events including a T16 at Byron Nelson and T38 at Wells Fargo. For some reason he has had great success here at TPC Southwind with 6 straight made cuts, 63rds the last two year, runner-up in 2012, 11th in 2011, 53rd in 2010, and 73rd in 2009. His stats are not much to brag about, but not terrible ranking 149th in driving distance, 30th in driving accuracy, 78th in greens in regulation, 68th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. His putting is atrocious, ranking 193rd in Strokes Gained Putting. Look, we have an already weak field plus there have been some withdraws, it is just tough finding decent options for sleepers. (GPP only)

 

Deep Sleeper:

 

Austin Cook- For those of you that are looking for a completely under the radar pick that very few have even heard of, let us introduce you to Austin Cook. For those of you who pay really close attention, you will remember The Shell Houston Open when Cook put up a first round 68 (T15), followed by a second-round 65, which put him one stroke back of 36 hole leader Andrew Putnam. The 65 included five birdies in a row. Cook was paired with Phil Mickelson on Saturday and shot 70 to retain his T2 spot, again one back of Putnam. He actually took the lead on Sunday after birdieing two of the first four holes and remained in contention until he made five bogies (and no birdies) over his last 10 holes. He ended up finishing T11. Not bad for a guy that got into the tournament by shooting a 64 in a Monday qualifier. He has mainly competed on the Adams Pro Tour, but did make an appearance here in the FedEx St Jude Classic last year, which he pulled off a 13th place finish. The only other event he has played this year was the AT&T Byron Nelson a couple of weeks ago where he missed the cut, but keep in mind he only missed the cut by 1 stroke and he put up a second round 65, it just was not enough to overcome a first round 74. He is 24 years old and has obviously shown some glimpses that he can really play. In his two tournament appearances he averaged driving distance of 287.6 yards, which is the average distance on tour. Whether you want to take a risk on a guy with such a limited track record is up to you. We will be mixing him into a couple of DFS GPP teams and see if he can surprise as a lowly owned guy. (GPP only)

Best of luck to all of you this week and be sure to let us know how you do.

-Fantasy Golf Insider