Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview – Farmers Insurance Open

OVERVIEW

This week the Tour heads to sunny La Jolla where Brandt Snedeker will defend his title from last year. Speaking of last year, the weather was horrible, it was cold, windy, and rainy and it was so bad that they delayed part of the final round to Monday where everyone playing their fourth round was over par. Snedeker finished his round on Sunday, playing potentially the round of the year (Furyk’s 58 was pretty good as well) in terrible weather conditions and watched Jimmy Walker & KJ Choi finish their rounds on Monday, unable to hold their leads away in the afternoon. With all that being said, I think it’s a fair statement to say you can throw out last year’s results from course history. If you don’t believe me, watch this. Historically the South course has played as the tougher of the two, but they recently renovated the North course and it’s expected to play closer to the South in difficulty so there doesn’t seem to be an edge in playing guys starting out on the North course this week.

 

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Torrey Pines North (3 rounds played) & South (1 round) Courses
• Par: 72 (both courses)
• Yardage: 7,258 yards (North) & 7,698 yards (South)
• Greens: Poa Annua (North), Bentgrass (South)
• Location: La Jolla, California
• Expected scoring: Assuming the weather doesn’t go bananas I’d say we see the winner in double digits at -11 and I’ll also say that a past champion wins this week.  
• Past Champions:
• 2016: Brandt Snedeker -6 over KJ Choi [-5]
• 2015: Jason Day -9 over Harris English, JB Holmes & Scott Stallings in a playoff
• 2014: Scott Stallings -9 over KJ Choi, Jason Day, Graham DeLaet, Pat Perez & Marc Leishman [-26]
• 2013: Tiger Woods -14 over Brandt Snedeker & Josh Teater [-10]
• 2012: Brandt Snedeker -16 over Kyle Stanley in a playoff

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – SG:OTT, SG:T2G, SG:APP, SG:P, Birdie Or Better
• Important – Greens in Regulation, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance

THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS

STARS

Jason Day (DK $11,400)

• Course History: MC – Win – 2^nd – 9^th – MC – 35^th – 49^th         
• Form: 12^th
• Stats: 64^th – SG:OTT, 34^th – SG:APP, 1^st– SG:P, 14^th – SG:T2G, 15^th – DD, 53^rd – GIR, 5^th – Birdie Avg, 26^th – Scrambling, 3^rd – BoB%
• Other – Day didn’t light the world on fire in Hawaii, but I’m sure his focus was on mapping distances from planned tourist attractions to the local hospital for his latest batch of health drama so a 12^th place finish is okay in my book considering how lit Thomas was that week. His game fits the course perfectly and that’s reflected in his success here. At the time of writing, I’ll be making Day a part of my core this week. It’s not difficult to make lineups that feature both he and DJ since there’s so much value at the bottom, so don’t be afraid to try to bulk up your lineups in GPP’s this week.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000)

• Course History: 18^th – MC – 51^st – 43^rd – 3^rd – MC – 19^th – 48^th
• Form: 6^th
• Stats: 2^nd – SG:OTT, 26^th – SG:APP, 36^th – SG:P, 3^rd– SG:T2G, 43^rd– GIR, 1^st– Birdie Avg, 70^th – Scrambling, 1^st – BoB%
• Other – DJ is currently lighting the European Tour on fire after a 3^rd round 64. DJ seems to be picking up where he left off last year so I don’t think fading him on a course that caters to bombers is a good idea. He’s finished in the Top 5 once in his career here, so I guess you could make an argument for fading the 2^nd highest price player in the pool, but again, things are clicking for him and I don’t want to lose out on money because I faded DJ.

Justin Rose (DK $10,200)

• Course History: MC – MC – 33^rd – 25^th – 22^nd – MC – 51^st – MC
• Form: 2^nd
• Stats: 5^th – SG:OTT, 39^th – SG:APP, 5^th – SG:T2G, 134^th – SG:P, 16^th – DD, 40^th – GIR, 21^st – Birdie Avg, 102^nd– Scrambling, 23^rd  – BoB%
• Other – So Mr. BluBlockers takes 2^nd in Hawaii after his “back pains” caused him to withdraw from the Hero in December. Call me crazy, but I think Rose is a fade this week. He’ll see increased ownership from people chasing his finish at the Sony and he hasn’t done anything of note here in past appearances. Two Top 25’s in eight appearances is not someone I’m willing to roster at this price.

ALSO CONSIDER – Phil Mickelson (DK $10,000) showed no signs of fatigue or rust on Thursday at the Career Builder coming out of the gates firing a -4, 68. Phil’s got all the tools in the bag to be successful here, but for whatever reason he doesn’t play too well. Normally I’d say he’d be fine for cash games, but missing three straight cuts here is a huge concern for your cash plays especially when you’ve got defending champion (and two time champion) Brandt Snedeker (DK $9,500) for $500 cheaper (Sneds is in play in all formats this week). Jimmy Walker (DK $9,400) was the chalk trap at Sony and you can bet he’ll be low owned after burning a bunch of your opponents money. Walker’s success here is weird considering how difficult it is to hit fairways, but I’m not going to argue with results and getting him at a lower ownership this week will be a perk. Fire up West Coast Jimmy.

 

VALUE PLAYS

Gary Woodland (DK $8,600)

• Tournament History: 34^th – 2^nd – MC – 56^th – 67^th – MC
• Form: 6^th – 31^st
• Stats: 12^th – SG:OTT, 30^th – SG:APP, 122^nd – SG:P, 12^th – SG:T2G, 23^rd – GIR, 52^nd – Birdie Avg, 59^th – Scrambling, 49^th – BoB%
• Other – Woodland pops up on this list because I see a ton of value in his price. The GPP play in the $8,700 – $8,300 would be Grillo after the debacle at Career Builder (yes that’s my endorsement for him), but I like Woodland for both cash and GPP this week. 6^th at the Sony where he gained strokes in every category except around the green (scrambling). This is a very good sign for Gare-Bear who has struggled with the putter a lot last year (aside from at this event where he gained 1.3 strokes on the greens).

Marc Leishman (DK $8,500)

• Course History: MC – 27^th – 2^nd – MC – 52^nd – 9^th – 2^nd – 26^th
• Form: 20^th
• Stats: 66^th – SG:OTT, 127^th – SG:APP, 44^th – SG:P, 72^nd – SG:T2G, 100^th – GIR, 95^th– Birdie Avg, 56^th – Scrambling, 98^th – BoB%
• Other – Leishman hits all of the major and secondary categories we’re looking for this week and I assume he’ll be fairly chalky in cash games. For that reason I think I’m going to fade him altogether as his birdie numbers were pretty low last year and he’s shown a propensity to miss cuts in optimal spots. The 20^th place finish at Sony is encouraging, but we’ve seen his game go up and down for two seasons now so be cautious with this selection if you decide to go down this road.

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,500) 

• Course History: 18^th – 11^th – 59^th – MC – 60^th – 3^rd
• Form: 30^th
• Stats: 23^rd – SG:OTT, 86^th – SG:APP, 77^th – SG:P, 54^th – SG:T2G, 14^th – DD, 10^th – GIR, 67^th – Birdie Avg, 84^th – Scrambling, 57^th – BoB%
• Other – Vegas didn’t take advantage of the optimal scoring in Hawaii, but made up for it during the first two rounds at Career Builder. Insert a trip to Torrey where he’s made every cut but one and I think you have a nice low owned cash game option with upside. He’s long off the tee, and that’s huge here. Looking at his history it makes sense that he’d play well. His form is in good shape right now too.

ALSO CONSIDER – Brendan Steele ($8,000) was recommended in this space last week and as of Saturday night sits T7 at the Career Builder. He hasn’t finished higher than 17^th in 2011, so I’d reserve him for your cash teams as a value play/ cut maker with some upside this week. Tiger Woods (DK $7,900) should garner a decent amount of ownership this week at this price and there’s merit to playing him. My only concern is if it rains, there’s speculation that the rough will be pretty thick and his new swing hasn’t seen thick rough yet (the rough in the Bahamas was nonexistent). Another concern of mine is his length off the tee. He’s much shorter now than ever, regardless of what the Golf Channel says, so his iron game will bear the burden of making up strokes lost. Tiger knows this course like the Perkins wait staff’s schedule, so I think he can make the cut even with his new “C game”, but thinking that he’s going to contend might be far-fetched. Billy Horschel (DK $7,800) made the news at this event last year because he played with his hat backwards during the tsunami winds on Monday, but what you didn’t hear about is how he gained 2.08 strokes from Tee to Green during this event (22^nd in the field) and finished T8. Billy’s had a bit of a tough time at Torrey, but has a ton of upside. I like him for all formats this week and if he finishes in the Top 20, we’re going to be riding him out until he wins.

 

DEEP DIVERS

 Si Woo Kim (DK $7,000)

• Tournament History: 18^th
• Form: 30^th – MC – WD
• Stats: 41^st – SG:OTT, 136^th – SG:APP, 120^th  – SG:P, 40^th – SG:T2G, 112^th – GIR, 50^th – Birdie Avg, 20^th – Scrambling, 46^th – BoB%
• Other – Si Woo is back! He played like three day old Sashimi in Hawaii (don’t be fooled by that “30^th place”), but he’s not built for playing on the Coors Field of golf. This event is perfect for him to play for par when he should and take his shots for birdies as they come. Finished 18^th here last year as an unknown, and this price is great for a winner on Tour.

KJ Choi (DK $6,800)

• Course History: 2^nd – 53^rd – 2^nd – 9^th – 29^th – 15^th – MC – MC – 37^th
• Form: MC – MC – MC
• Stats: 172^nd – SG:OTT, 78^th – SG:APP, 31^st – SG:P, 131^st – SG:T2G, 97^th – GIR, 115^th– Birdie Avg, 33^rd – Scrambling, 121^st – BoB%
• Other – KJ has been very profitable in this event over his career. He hasn’t made a cut yet this year, but that changes this week on a course he’s comfortable at regardless of weather conditions. Choi doesn’t make big mistakes typically, is sneaky long off the tee and a good putter. He’ll probably be fairly chalky in cash at this price, but I think it’s worth it.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,700) 

• Course History: MC – 24^th – MC – 39^th – 51^st – 9^th – 3^rd – MC – MC – 4^th – MC
• Form: In Progress at Career Builder, currently T32
• Stats: 11^th – SG:OTT, 46^th – SG:APP, 132^nd – SG:P, 28^th – SG:T2G, 35^th – DD, 1^st – GIR, 30^th – Birdie Avg, 123^rd – Scrambling, 32^nd – BoB%
• Other – Last week I mentioned he wouldn’t be a guy I feature in this space often and what do you know, here he is again. Glover is a US Open winner, this course hosted a US Open and plays as tough as one. The green speeds might help his putting woes this week, but I think I’d stick to having ownership on him primarily in GPP’s even at this cheap of a price.

Also consider – Michael Kim (DK $6,600) is from the area, played high school golf at Torrey High School and their home course was Torrey Pines so I think he might know how to play both of these courses. Kim has done well so far through three rounds, but he’s losing strokes in all of the wrong places which is holding him back this week. I think that changes this week. Finishing 31^st last year makes me feel pretty good about rolling him out this week. Martin Laird (DK $6,500) is gaining strokes in all facets of his game right now and has two straight Top 10’s at the FIO. He’s not a guy I typically roster unless things are going well, and that’s exactly what’s going on right now. He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2010 so I think he’s a fine cash game play and is definitely worthy of seeing your GPP rosters at this price. Getting Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,300) right on the right weeks is probably harder than predicting winning lottery numbers, but at this price I’m willing to take a chance on a young bomber who’s from California and putts better on poa greens than he does on Bermuda. Rodgers has the game from tee to green, just needs a warm putter.

GPP PLAYS

Rickie Fowler (DK $9,700): Originally I was going to list Brooks Koepka here, but he’s sure to have way more ownership than little Rickie and there’s a good chance Brooks gets a case of the first event blues. Rickie is shaking off the rust in Europe as of writing and has been grinding it out for the past three days. We know he’s over rated as a golfer, but he can win events he’s not leading after three rounds. He missed the cut here last year, but has two Top 6’s since 2010.  

Jon Rahm (DK $9,200): Same as last week except he’s got 4 rounds under his belt now in 2017. Rahm gave us a little scare at Career Builder through 2 days. Luckily, the cut wasn’t until Saturday and he was able to get himself through the cut comfortably. Rahm has the ability to rack up more points in two days than some in four, so even if he does miss a random cut, he shouldn’t hurt you as much and he’s sure to be owned in high dollar GPP’s (He was 42% in the $150 3 Max GPP last week).

Hudson Swafford (DK $7,500): Swaff is in play every week until further notice. He should be a part of your GPP core & cash games as he makes a ton of birdies and has no issues making cuts. This year he looks less like the Swaffbuckler and more like the Swafficer in that he’s not gagging away all of his strokes gained on the weekend, which makes him an excellent GPP play even when he’s 20% owned.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,000): Kiz looks to be back in our good graces after losing his game midway through last season. He’s long off the tee, solid with his irons and drops a ton of birdies. I’m a big fan this week at this price coming off his strong play at Career Builder. Kiz finished 8^th here last year.

Scott Stallings (DK $6,800): Stallings has figured out Torrey the last few years after missing the cut in his first two appearances. My only concern is the long layoff, but he’s done this before. 25^th last year preceded by a 2^nd and a win. Large GPP pool only play and I’d keep exposure between 10 & 15%.

Beau Hossler (DK $6,100): Hossler is a major dart throw of a GPP play this week for a few reasons. It’s his first event since the NCAA Championships last summer and he’s coming off a shoulder injury that held him out of the championship round. Some of you may recognize the name from the 2012 US Open where he was on the first page of the leaderboard for three days and ultimately finished 29^th. He’s got a ton of talent and has shown he can hang with the pros, so taking a flier or two on him seems like a good idea for large pool GPP’s this week.

 

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team! 

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)