Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- European Tour Scottish Open

OVERVIEW
The final tune-up before The Open Championship, the Scottish Open is played on a rotation of courses located in Scotland and has been played at Castle Stuart Golf Links on three previous occasions – 2011 through 2013. Since 2010, five players have won the Open Championship the week following playing the Scottish Open, so keep an eye on some of these players next week when making your rosters. Since opening the course in 2009, several tees have been added to add more length to the course and for the most part, the fairways are large. As with traditional links courses, there are numerous bunkers that come into play and seven holes are adjacent to the Moray Firth (water hazard). To become more familiar with the course, click here for a course tour.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
o Castle Stuart Golf Links
o Par: 72
o Yardage: 7,193
o Greens: Fescue, typically run between 10’ and 10.5’
• Location: Inverness, United Kingdom – Scotland
• Past Champions (2013 – 2011):
o 2013 – Phil Mickelson -17 in a playoff over Branden Grace
o 2012 – Jeev Milkha Singh -17 in a playoff over Francesco Molinari
o 2011 – Luke Donald -19 over Fredrik Andersson Hed (event was shortened to 54 holes)

For access to our key stats to target, strategy, and top picks this week, sign up for our European Tour Premium Membership.

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KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, Greens In Regulation, Putting Avg, Par 4 Scoring Avg
• Important – Scrambling, Sand Save %
European Tour statistics are very bland, not very detailed and tell even less of a story than the robust amount of stats PGATour.com provides. If a player has PGA Tour stats, I’d put more confidence in trusting what you’re there seeing versus what EuropeanTour.com provides.

STRATEGY
This is a very good week to mix and match the types of rosters you construct. If you’re a one lineup warrior, I’d stick to the balanced approach. If you’re making ten, I’d look to make five stars and scrubs, and five balanced (based around a core of value plays). Two weeks ago was an anomaly with a lot of big names missing the cut. There will be some random players who play well this week, but for the most part, the class of the European Tour will be highlighting the leaderboard, so when building your stars and scrubs lineups I’d lean more towards younger players who are in form rather than searching for guys you know.

STARS:

Henrik Stenson (DK $12,200)
o Course History: 3rd – 8th
o Form: WIN – WD – 4th – MC – MC – 24th – 2nd – 3rd – 11th – 28th
o Stats: 78.3 – DK FPPG, 19th – SG:OTT, 2nd – SG:APP, 7th – SG:T2G, 78th – DD, 11th – DA, 3rd – GIR, 9th – Birdie Avg, 24th – P3 BoB, 10th – P5 BoB, 7th – Overall BoB
o Other – Henrik coming off his win probably is a good fade candidate this week, but I’m sure I’d hear it if I didn’t mention him. Stenson is 29 under in two appearances at Castle Stuart and doesn’t have a win. Compare that to someone who’s placed well here in three appearances; Soren Kjeldsen is 15 under, so Henrik’s scoring ability makes him an intriguing option for those looking for reasons to play the highest price player this week.

Phil Mickelson (DK $10,900)
o Course History: WIN – 16th – 58th
o Form: 27th – MC – 2nd – 20th – MC – 4th – MC – MC – 13th – 64th
o Stats: 68.1 – DK FPPG, 14th – SG:APP, 21st – SG:ARG, 16th – SG:T2G, 4th – SG:P, 50th – DD, 8th – Birdie Avg, 9th – Sand Saves, 14th – Scrambling, 9th – P3 BoB, 51st – P4 BoB, 10th – P5 BoB
o Other – Phil’s been playing like hot garbage off and on this year, but he’s played well where he typically has done well on in the past (Pebble, Shell, Wells Fargo) and he’s played well here. Statistically he’s still as good as he was earlier in the year, it’s just been a few shots here and there that have derailed his rounds as his putter has been the most consistent this year. There’s something about the Scottish Open in general for Phil that just seems to click for him and I assume Patrick Reed will be the popular play this week in this range, so I’ll be playing Phil instead of Reed in both cash & GPP’s.

Shane Lowry (DK $10,500)
o Course History: 31st – 11th – 14th
o Form: 36th – 2nd – MC – 23rd – 16th – MC – 39th – MC – 64th – 35th
o Stats: 58.6 DK FPPG, 16th – SG:OTT, 73rd – SG:ARG, 45th – SG:T2G, 139th – Birdie Avg (3.36), 35th – DD, 63rd – DA, 6th – P3 BoB
o Other – Lowry was a favorite play last week amongst a lot of touts and punters and I get it, but last year’s win at Firestone was out of nowhere and he needed everything to go right for him to win. Fast forward to last week and he was never in contention, and didn’t shoot par until Sunday when he was already out of it. Now, after reading that you’re probably wondering why he’s listed here. My reasoning – he’s more expensive this week, he’s back on a links course where he has had some success and people will be off of him; I don’t think that’s a good move this week

ALSO CONSIDER – Branden Grace (DK $11,600) – Grace is close to breaking out again for his next tour win, I’d be a fool to not mention him considering how well he played last week. My concern is the price for someone who looks to be peaking for the Open Championship instead of the week before, so I’d only recommend him for GPP’s this week. Another guy I like for GPP’s only, is Andy Sullivan (DK $9,800). People tend to focus more on course history than they should (with limited course history for a majority of the field, I think we need to look at a few players who have been close) even though he’s a bit high in price, he’s been churning out Top 25’s at a fairly high rate and can score with the best in the game.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Joost Luiten (DK $9,600)
o Course History: MC (2011)
o Form: 9th – 16th -6th – 27th – MC – 44th – 2nd – 2nd
o Stats: 76.9 DK FPPG, 70.29 Stroke Avg – 63.14% DA – 289.03 yards DD – 74.70% GIR, 29.95 Putts Per Rd
o Other – Luiten’s been the most consistent player in the upper echelon of players on the Euro Tour since DraftKings introduced the product. If you’re not comfortable paying for guys in the 5k range this week, I strongly suggest starting your lineups with Joost. His course history is minimal so I’m not putting too much stock into that for him this week, instead I’m leaning more on his current form and his drive to make the Ryder Cup.

Luke Donald (DK $8,100)
o Course History: 16th – WIN (2011 – 54 holes)
o Form: 45th – MC – 68th – 27th – MC – 71st – 13th
o Stats: 55.7 DK FPPG, 34th – SG:APP, 10th – SG:ARG, 57th – SG:P, 69th – Prox, 17th – Rough Prox, 7th – Scrambling, 13th – Three Putt Avoid, 23rd – P4 Scoring Avg
o Other – Luke sees this article again this week based on his consistency and lack of blowup holes. I’d definitely fade him for GPP’s this week as his scoring ability just isn’t there and on this course, if youre not scoring you’re going to be fighting to make the cut/fighting for DFL come Sunday. I’d only reserve Donald for cash games this week as I don’t see him repeating what he did in either appearance here previously.

Jamie Lovemark (DK $6,800)
o Course History: N/A
o Form: 62nd – 52nd – 59th – 64th – 53rd – 2nd – MC – 18th – 6th – 37th
o Stats: 63 DK FPPG, 16th – SG:OTT, 23rd – SG:ARG, 52nd – SG:T2G, 10th – DD, 26th – Birdie Avg (3.88), 55th – Sand Saves, 85th – GIR (65.54%), 10th – Scrambling, 21st – P4 BoB, 28th – P5 BoB
o Other – Since his runner up at the Heritage, Lovemark has regressed in finishes and overall performance, but at $6,800 I think it’d be a shame to ignore him. His length off the tee should give him plenty of opportunities to hit low irons into the greens and setup birdie opportunities. He’ll just need to convert on those opportunities or he’ll be going home early this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Gregory Bourdy (DK $7,600) – I debated between writing up Bourdy over Donald, but decided the tie breaker was the availability of the PGA Tour stats for Donald, so don’t think I like Donald more than Bourdy, because I don’t. Bourdy’s been playing really well lately with five straight Top 25’s and seven since March. Tyrell Hatton (DK $7,400) – Eventually Hatton will go back to being the cut-maker he had been when we started playing Euro Tour DFS. I’m not sure if he’s in a funk right now or what, but his play on Thursdays and Fridays has been less than desired. Regardless, I think he finally gets things clicking again this week and avoids slamming his trunk on Friday afternoon. Richard Bland (DK $6,000) – Bland missed the cut and broke my heart last week, but that doesn’t mean I’m throwing him aside. We’ve seen many players have a hiccup one week only to come back the following and play well so that’s my hope for the European Tour version of Charles Howell III.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 

Johan Carlsson (DK $6,600)
o Course History: N/A
o Form: 16th – 21st – 38th – 30th – 33rd – MC – 16th – 48th – MC
o Stats: 65 – DK FPPG, 71.47 – Stroke Avg, 52.96% – DA, 301.61 yards – DD, 67.55% – GIR, 29.38 – Putts/Rd
o Other – Johan has been on a tear this year and I’m going to keep going back to the well. He’s shown he’s a cut maker as he comes in with 15/17 cuts made, and has shown the upside in birdie making and finishing with three Top 25’s in his past seven events. I also love that he bombs it off the tee and has shown he can hit greens in regulation at over 65% for each of the first three years on tour.

David Horsey (DK $6,200)
o Course History: 24th – 36th – 49th
o Form: MC – 7th – 31st – 37th – MC
o Stats: 48.6 – DK FPPG, 71.68 – Stroke Avg, 58.61% – DA, 282 yards – DD, 65.36% – GIR, 29.41 – Putts/Rd
o Other – Horsey’s missed cut last week was unfortunate for those that played him coming off a Top 10, but that works to our favor this week. I’m leaning on his course history and what I perceive to be an ability to bounce back after missing cuts. I’m not expecting anything crazy other than making the cut, and like a lot of the cheaper players, if I don’t have to spend a lot of money to get a cut maker I won’t.
ALSO CONSIDER – Romain Wattel (DK $6,500), Magnus A Carlsson (DK $6,200) – Part of “The Brothers Carlsson” (as I’ve dubbed he and Johan), Magnus is 9/16 cuts made on the year, but he’s adjusting to life on Tour and that shows primarily in his last four events where he’s not only made the cut, but finished inside the Top 40 in each event. Daniel Brooks (DK $5,200) – Brooks has made 12/17 cuts this year so there is some risk with this play, but like many cheapies in this writeup, I think the reward outweighs the risk for cash and GPPs.

 

CALCULATED GPP DART THROWS:

Nicolas Colsaerts (DK $8,600)
o Course History: 8th – 36th – 3rd
o Form: 22nd – MC – 3rd – 22nd – 23rd – 3rd – 15th – 58th – MC – 10th
o Stats: 55.5 – DK FPPG, 71.34 – Stroke Avg, 52.73% – DA, 302.50 yards – DD, 75.11% – GIR, 31.04 – Putts/Rd
o Other – Six Top 25’s in seven starts for the Belgian Bomber is the basis of this play especially considering he’s sprinkled in two Top 5’s in that same span. The course history and length off the tee only helped solidify this selection. Whenever you see a player with good form, good history and seems to be a few lucky bounces or putts away from making a nice run you have to play him and that’s how I feel about Nicky Big Stick this week.

Raphael Jacquelin (DK $6,900)
o Course History: 8th – 16th – 49th
o Form: MC – 4th – 8th – MC – 23rd – 55th – 56th – 24th – 53rd – 65th – MC
o Stats: 51.5 – DK FPPG, 72.06 – Stroke Avg, 59.05% – DA, 274.69 yards – DD, 63.22%- GIR, 28.76 – Putts/Rd
o Other – Raphael may be a bit of an unknown in the DFS community, but he’s a familiar face to the Scottish Open. Last year’s runner up at Gullane Golf Club missed the cut last week and I couldn’t have been happier, mainly due to his price this week and the fact that he’s a collective -33 in three showings at Castle Stuart.

ALSO CONSIDER – Martin Kaymer (DK $11,200), Thomas Pieters (DK $8,000), Andrew Johnston (DK $7,000) – BEEF makes his return to the European Tour preview article after missing the cut at the BMW International. He played like rubbish (I need to incorporate more British lingo in these write-ups) on Thursday, fought back to get above the cut line on Friday, but it wasn’t enough to continue his made cut streak. Regardless, he earned a payday at the WGC-Bridgestone (he even played well on a tough course) and looks to keep that momentum going as we near The Open Championship. Robert Dinwiddie (DK $6,100) – Dinwiddie’s been a main feature in this article for the past few weeks and he continues to help our teams. Last week he turned in a decent Top 30 finish and this week we get him $800 cheaper, I’m big on playing guys whose prices drop a week after playing four days. To finalize the GPP plays I have to mention Chris Hanson (DK $5,200) who comes in with six straight made cuts and has finished as high as 5th during that run. All we need out of him is a made cut and with how volatile the Euro Tour has been this year, I’ll be more than ecstatic if he can make the cut at more than half the price of Stenson.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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