Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- European Tour- Omega European Masters

OVERVIEW

Buckle up for Masters Week! No, not THAT Masters, the Omega European Masters is finally upon us! The Race to Dubai continues this week, and it’s an important one as Danny Willett looks to hold onto the lead again this week (since the closest competitor is Chris Wood in 7^th and trails by ~1,500,000 points; that’s not an exaggeration either, Willett has 3,169,940 points to Wood’s 1,600,862). This week the course throws us a bit of a curveball as it’s not very long compared to what we’ve been seeing on the European Tour, but the greens are very small and have run-offs which make them hard to keep the ball on the putting surface; proximity to the hole will be an important stat to look at (make sure you head over to PGATour.com to see if any of the players you’re targeting have statistics listed, don’t worry so much about their ranking, but the actual measurement). The course features TWO driveable Par 4’s on holes 6 & 7, with the 6^th being the riskier of the two if players elect to go for it off the tee and is littered with hazards (primarily on the back 9). If you haven’t noticed yet, I’ve updated the key stats to target the past few weeks, and will continue to do so as more information is available.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Crans-Sur-Sierre GC
• Par: 70 ( five Par 3’s, 3 Par 5’s – the longest being 633 yards)
• Yardage: 6,848 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass/Poa annua mix typically running about 10.5’ on the stimp meter
• Location: Crans Montana, Switzerland
• Expected scoring: Scores have been pretty low here over the years and players seem to be better relative to par this year than they have in the past so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a birdie fest this week, with the winning score being close to -20.  
• Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Danny Willett -17 over Matthew Fitzpatrick [-16]
• 2014: David Lipsky -18 in a playoff over Graeme Storm
• 2013: Thomas Bjorn -20 in a playoff over Craig Lee
• 2012: Richie Ramsay -16 over Fredrik Andersson, Marcus Fraser, Romain Wattel & Danny Willett [-12]
• 2011: Thomas Bjorn -20 over Martin Kaymer [-16]
• 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez -21 over Edoardo Molinari [-18]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Greens in Regulation, Driving Accuracy, Putts per GIR
• Important – Current Form, Course History, Proximity to Hole, Driving Distance (due to being up in the mountains, the ball will fly a bit further this week for everyone)

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STARS:

Danny Willett (DK $12,400)

• Course History: WIN – 5^th – 26^th – 2^nd – 25^th – 42^nd – 23^rd
• Form: 37^th – 79^th – 53^rd – MC – MC – 37^th
• Stats: 88 – Scoring Avg, 57.4% – DA, 286 yards – DD, 71.23% GIR
• Other – It’s been awhile since we’ve seen good Danny (say, The Masters), but with course history like this he can’t be ignored this week even if he is the most expensive player in the field. With three Top 5’s in his last four trips, you have to expect a large ownership percentage this week in all formats, so if you’re extremely confident in Willett this week, make sure you’re near 40%+ because I think he’s going to be highly owned. I personally will be on the fade train as I don’t like to pay for the most expensive player, even if he meets my #TeamCourseHistory brand.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $11,400)

• Course History: 2^nd – MC
• Form: MC – 5^th – 16^th – 49^th – MC – MC – MC – MC – 54^th – WIN
• Stats: 63 – Scoring Avg, 63.77% – DA, 278.54 yards – DD, 74.84% – GIR
• Other – Fitz has been on quite the run the past month and continues to trend in the right direction to finish out the season. It almost looks like he learned something during his torrid run of four straight missed cuts and has developed a new level of confidence when watching him play. His strength this week, hitting greens in regulation, will be tested and he’ll need to up his proximity game if he expects to play all four days something that he didn’t do very well on Friday at the Made In Denmark, which cost him a shot at the weekend. I won’t like him for cash for the foreseeable future, so limit your exposure to GPP’s only this week.

 David Lipsky (DK $10,300)

• Course History: 16^th – WIN – MC – 59^th
• Form: 3^rd – 6^th – 64^th – 24^th – MC – MC – 28^th – MC – MC
• Stats:39 Scoring Avg, 56.07% – DA, 280.12 yards – DD, 68.10% – GIR
• Other – So I guess I was wrong in thinking Lipsky’s form would tail off last week finishing T3 and only two shots back of winner Thomas Pieters, backing up his 6^th place finish at the Czech Masters. The price is a bit higher than I’d like for him, but when looking at his career record on the Euro Tour he seems to peak around this time so I’m willing to give him one more shot before looking elsewhere. Clearly he’s comfortable here, judging by his finishes, so hopefully he doesn’t burn us this week in a spot that seems too good to be true.

ALSO CONSIDER –Tyrrell Hatton (DK $12,200) – For starters he’s back on his home Tour after a little stint on the PGA Tour (where he made four of five cuts all of which were Top 20’s with a T5 being the best at the Open Championship). Secondly he’s 4^th in scoring average on the European Tour with a stroke average of 70.29. Ty is hitting greens in regulation at about 70% (combined on both Tours) this year and is fairly long off the tee (292.13 yards – DD on the Euro, 292.6 yards – DD on the PGA), I like how his game translates to success here. He’ll be a core play for me this week in both cash & GPP’s and I could see him taking the trophy come Sunday. Lee Westwood (DK $11,000) – Westy seems to be the player I start making my cash lineups with this week and should be fairly chalky this week. Westy’s cut making ability (6/6 including three Top 25’s) is what I’m looking at, but his lack of upside means I’ll be pivoting in GPP’s. It sounds like he’s basically locked up one of the Captain’s picks for the European Ryder Cup team, but he’ll want to keep his good momentum going until the team lands in Chaska in a few weeks. Bernd Wiesberger (DK $10,600) – Wiesberger’s year has been a bit of a disappointment compared to last year, but he has a lot of positives for this course beginning with his history here – 3/4 cuts made, best finish was 6^th in 2012, and currently sits 15^th in greens in regulation. His form is actually pretty decent when you look past the two missed cuts at the last two majors (four Top 11’s and three missed cuts in his last 7 events), but based on the lack of consistency I’ll only be looking at him for GPP purposes this week.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

 Andrew Johnston (DK $9,700)

• Tournament History: MC
• Form: 60^th – 8^th – MC – 42^nd – MC – 54^th – 12^th
• Stats:52 – Scoring Avg, 64.80% – DA, 292.94 yards – DD, 73% – GIR
• Other – BEEF is back, and while he probably would’ve made this article regardless of price, I think he makes for a really good play this week after several weeks of rest and perhaps more importantly – his hype has died down since The Open Championship. He’ll still be a popular play among DFS circles, but I don’t think you’re going to see absurd ownership percentages this week, mainly due to his missed cut here last year. He’s a different player now that he’s won and should back up my suspicions this week.

 Chris Wood (DK $9,300)

• Course History: MC – WD – MC – 15^th – 32^nd – MC
• Form: 32^nd – MC – WD – 11^th – 23^rd – 6^th
• Stats: 67 – Scoring Avg, 52.94% – DA, 289.88 yards – DD, 66.99% – GIR

Other – Playing Wood this week is not recommended for anyone with known heart conditions. His form is pretty bad, especially when considering how weak the field was at the Olympics and his tournament history here is about as good as mine would be (obviously pointing to the fact that he hasn’t played many weekends), but the price on him is very nice considering he does possess birdie making ability. Wood is a GPP only play this week for me, and even then I may only have him in about 1-2 lineups as a hedge; I think 10-15% of your lineups should be plenty if you want exposure to him this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Stewart Cink (DK $7,000) – Its weird to see Cink’s name listed as a participant in a European Tour event that isn’t a major, but here we are. Cink’s strength is accuracy whether its off the tee or from the fairway so its no surprise that I like him this week. He has no course history here so I’m going off the paved road with this suggestion, but he played well in his last start at the Wyndham where he finished T14 which was primarily due to shooting eight under on the weekend. Gregory Havret (DK $6,700) – Havret, like Johan, is another player who hits a ton of greens in regulation (70.1%, ranks 39^th on Tour) and actually has a substantial sample size to consider him someone who hasn’t just had a couple good tournaments where he hit a bunch of greens (1,044 greens played). The biggest difference between he and Johan is the driving accuracy – where Havret ranks 5^th on Tour, hitting 71.5% of fairways in regulation. Getting good ball strikers at a cheap price this week is where I’m going with most of these suggestions. I also think Havret makes a good enough play for both cash and GPP’s. Johan Carlsson (DK $6,500) – Making another appearance in this article is my main man Johan. Yes he and Magnus both let me down last week, but I’m only moving away from the other one this week. Johan ranks 79^th in greens in regulation (hitting 67% of greens) and if the European Tour had a limit of greens played like the PGA Tour does, his rank would be even more appealing as he’s played the most greens out of anyone in the Top 80. I don’t suggest him for cash games as he’s shown some volatility, but he makes for a very nice value play in GPP’s this week.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 Benjamin Hebert (DK $6,800)

• Tournament History: MC – 61^st
• Form: 13^th – 64^th – 76^th – MC – 59^th – MC
• Stats: 15 – Scoring Avg, 63.71% – DA, 284.47 yards – DD, 75.24% – GIR
• Other – Hebert makes his debut in this article a week after he showed up on my radar when looking into his stats. Benjamin currently ranks 8^th in greens in regulation and 37^th in driving accuracy and if not for my lack of confidence in his form last week he would’ve been a great addition to this article as he finished 13^th last week, easily paying off his low salary. I’m not expecting another top 15 finish this week as his history here isn’t the best, but when his stats tell this kind of story, you can’t ignore someone who’s this cheap.

  Simon Dyson (DK $5,800)

• Tournament History: 22^nd – 27^th – 16^th – 60^th – 7^th – 32^nd – WD – 12^th – 69^th – 16^th
• Form: 61^st – MC – MC – MC – MC – MC – 68^th
• Stats: – 74.08 – Scoring Avg, 47.16% – DA, 284.70 yards – DD, 58.33% – GIR
• Other – Dyson isn’t a very good statistical fit and his form is pretty sloppy, but we need to look at positives if we’re going dumpster diving this week. His course history might be Top 5 in this field so there’s your glimmer of hope with him this week. Definitely not a recommended cash play, but if he finds his game on a familiar course he could be a difference maker in GPP’s. I don’t think you need any more than 10% ownership on him this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Edoardo Molinari (DK $6,100) – I recommended Moli last week and he didn’t disappoint me and my low expectations finishing 26^th and reaching value at his price. This week he has more course history to convince anyone weary of playing him (four Top 14’s in eight appearances, only two missed cuts during that span). Like 80% of the other recommendations in this article, Molinari is an accuracy guy and should get a nice bump in distance off the tee as well. David Drysdale (DK $5,800) – The name indicates this might need to be a baseball recommendation, but Drysdale is in fact a 41 year old professional golfer. He’s made five of ten cuts here, and has made the cut in four of his last five with his best finish being 13^th at The Scottish Open. If the form and history isn’t enough for you, he ranks 14^th in greens in regulation and 6^th in driving accuracy. His length is usually an issue, but with the altitude change and shortness of the course I don’t see that being an issue this week making him a very deep sleeper for GPP’s. If you’re looking for a dart throw GPP play, look at Michael Hoey (DK $6,200) who has two Top 16’s in his last three events. He missed the cut last week, but has ample course history (7/8 cuts made, best finish of 48^th) and is pretty darn cheap.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Miguel Angel Jimenez (DK $8,800)

• Course History: MC – 5^th – 11^th – 9^th – WIN – 4^th – 3^rd – MC – 37^th – 13^th – 2^nd
• Form: 2^nd – 2^nd – 3^rd – 18^th – MC – MC – 2^nd – 2^nd
• Stats: 97 – Scoring Avg, 68.13% – DA, 273.69 yards – DD, 67.31% – GIR
• Other – The Mechanic returns from the Champions Tour this week and my first thoughts on him were to fade because I figured he’d be the massive chalk play. While nursing my hangover this weekend I thought more about it and came to the conclusion that nobody is going to want to pay this much for a 52 year old who hasn’t done much on the Euro Tour in limited starts this year. All of his good form is via Champions Tour where they only play three days and the competition (for the most part) is older than he is and probably not in as good of shape either so he’s got an edge there. Aside from the form and history, former winners include fellow Spaniards Seve Ballesteros (he also redesigned the course in 1999) and Jose Maria Olazabal; so we’ve got some Spain narrative working in his favor as well this week.

 Graeme Storm (DK $6,300)

• Course History: 37^th – 2^nd – MC – 41^st – 58^th – 32^nd – 23^rd – 20^th – MC – 48^th
• Form: 71^st – 7^th – 32^nd – MC – MC – 9^th – MC – MC
• Stats: 18 – Scoring Avg, 64.19% – DA, 276.57 yards – DD, 65.87% – GIR
• Other – Storm has the history and the form this week on top of his solid ball striking skills. Some may look at the 7^th place finish at the Czech Masters as a blip on a very unimpressive radar, but that’s ok as we’re only targeting him for GPP’s this week and at an anticipated low ownership. His previous appearance to the Top 10 was sandwiched by missed cuts, so the form has improved since then and his lack of length off the tee shouldn’t hinder his ability to get around this track.

ALSO CONSIDER – Callum Shinkwin (DK $7,800) – Hitting 70% of greens in regulation, 67% of fairways while being able to bomb it off the tee without an altitude change is a good thing this week. Shinks hasn’t played here prior to this week so he doesn’t get the endorsement from #TeamCourseHistory, but he does get mine. After taking some time off he’s slowly working thru some struggles in his game, but he’s trending in the right direction and I don’t think people will play him at this price. Gregory Bourdy (DK $7,700) – Bourdy was a beast in the  two major championships he played this year finishing T18 at the US Open and PGA Championship so he’s no stranger to strong field events. His success this year can be accredited to his accuracy off the tee (24^th – 66.5%) and approach shots (41^st – 70%) as well as his ability to putt (29.1 putts per round). With so many options at the top this week, I expect Bourdy to go overlooked in GPP’s, and that is a mistake. Brett Rumford (DK $6,000) – Five Top 20’s in his last eight appearances including a win in 2007, Rumford looks to be the best play in this range as far as #TeamCourseHistory goes. After seeing he missed the cut on Friday at the Made in Denmark, I immediately put his name in this article and went back about my business. His form had been pretty sloppy going in to last week, but you can’t ignore someone with no missed cuts in eleven appearances. I don’t mind mixing him into your cash teams either.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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