Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- European Tour- Made in Denmark

OVERVIEW

All but three spots have been claimed for Europe’s Ryder Cup team this year and even though qualification has been finalized, we get a fairly strong field to build our lineups with this week. The course was designed by Philip Spogard who also designed Carya Golf Club (host site for the Turkish Airlines Open, so look at the results from that event as a comparison). At this point in the year, I think it’s safe to assume all courses on the Euro Tour are links style unless noted otherwise, so keep that in mind going forward. The difference this week is that it’s not a “coastal” links course, it’s still susceptible to the strong winds that the course cannot defend due to the lack of trees. The par 5’s aren’t crazy this week, but one of the three is 644 yards (the shortest one is 471 yards which is the same distance as one of the Par 4’s they’ll be playing as well) so Par 5 scoring should be a lock as well as driving distance. Scoring will mostly take place on the short Par 4’s as the course plays host to five holes that play under 400 yards.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Himmerland Golf and Spa Resort (Backtee Course)
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,033 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Farso, Denmark
• Expected scoring: Nailed last week’s winning score at -15, so let’s keep things going with this week’s projection of -12. If it rains it could soften the course, but as mentioned above, the winds will keep scores higher than what we’ve seen thus far.  
• Past Champions (dating back to 2014):
• 2015: David Horsey -13 over Kristoffer Broberg, Daniel Gaunt, Soren Kjeldsen, Terry Pilkadaris [-11]
• 2014: Marc Warren -9 over Bradley Dredge [-7]

 

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy (the combination of the two driving stats have proven to be effective here the last two years) Greens in Regulation, Putts per GIR
• Important – Current Form, Course History

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Stars:

Martin Kaymer (DK $12,400)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 15^th – 7^th – 36^th – 13^th – 5^th – 37^th – 7^th – 5^th – 39^th – 41^st – 6^th
• Stats:36 – Scoring Avg, 58.93% – DA, 290.31 yards – DD, 68.58% GIR
• Other – Kaymer is by far the best all-around player in the field this week and that’s reflective in his price/odds. He hasn’t quite lived up to expectations when being the favorite in the field this year, so I don’t mind the fade this week especially at this price. Kaymer typically plays better on this side of the pond, so I don’t think you need to worry about him completely tanking it, but his dip in greens in regulation this year over last (76.14%) is a bit of a concern and he’s made a few more big mistakes as of late which isn’t something he typically does.

Soren Kjeldsen (DK $10,600)

• Course History: 2^nd – 15^th
• Form: 21^st – 64^th – 33^rd – 9^th – 21^st – 42^nd – MC – 20^th – MC – 19^th – 43^rd – 4^th
• Stats: 85 – Scoring Avg, 56.02% – DA, 286.50 yards – DD, 63.89% – GIR
• Other – Here’s your chalk play of the week. Kjeldsen is a home native who has good form, tournament history and isn’t the most expensive player in the field. I imagine a large percentage of DFS players will start their roster construction with the Great Dane. One thing I’ve noticed on the Euro Tour this year is that these guys seem to bring their game to another level when playing in their home country events as opposed to over on the PGA Tour where players haven’t taken advantage of playing on their “home courses”. I’d be overweight on Kjeldsen this week.

 Ross Fisher (DK $9,600)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 42^nd – MC – 39^th – 22^nd – 28^th – 6^th – MC – 54^th – 44^th – 16^th – 6^th
• Stats: 21 – Scoring Avg, 63.75% – DA, 295.18 yards – DD, 73.07% – GIR
• Other – Fisher has been priced in the $9k range twice since June ($9,300 @ Nordea where he exceeded value scoring 101 DK Pts, and $9,300 at BMW Int’l where he almost met full value scoring 74 points). Normally I wouldn’t look at him on a course where he has no history, but I think this could be a solid GPP play as most will look at his game log and see he was priced in the $6k range his last two events and deem him as overpriced. I liked what I saw at the PGA Championship thru 36 holes enough for me to get on board this week even though this course will play nothing like Baltusrol. I love what he’s been doing off the tee (DD & DA are important on this course) as well as with his approach shots this year, hitting over 70% of greens and with the amount of variance in putting, it has to come around at some point.

ALSO CONSIDER – Thomas Pieters (DK $11,500) – Pieters had last week all but wrapped up when play started on Sunday, but backing up his Saturday 70 with a matching score is what cost him the tournament in the end. Pieters is a hot head, so I’m sure the bogey start didn’t sit well with him, but he only had three birdies the rest of the day and only took advantage of his length on one of the par 5’s Sunday which is what really did him in. I like Pieters to bounce back this week, but he’s going to need to make putts like he did through 36 holes last week. Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $11,300) – Fitz has locked up his Ryder Cup spot for the Euro team and has been playing much better the past month (5^th – 16^th – 49^th). Sometimes being named to the team can be a curse as players are relieved to hear their name called, but I think Fitz continues his strong play this week and uses the nomination as motivator. Bradley Dredge (DK $9,700) – Dredge disappointed me last week after seeing him on the first page of the leaderboard after the cuts took place with a 47^th place finish. I mentioned on Twitter Wednesday that he’d be a chalky play this week with two Top 6’s in this event the past two years and I still stand by that. For GPP purposes it may be wise to fade or be underweight on your Dredge exposure this week.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

  Thorbjorn Olesen (DK $8,800)

• Course History: MC – 7^th
• Form: 30^th – MC – MC – MC – WD – 2^nd – MC – MC – 10^th – 15^th – 8^th – 19th
• Stats:57 Scoring Avg, 57.14% – DA, 286.49 yards – DD, 71.82% – GIR
• Other – Thorbjorn has been a constant disappointment this year in the respect that when he’s played well, he’s backed it up with horrendous play. Like Kjeldsen, Olesen is a Danish player who will undoubtedly will have some friends & family following his rounds this week. Two years ago he led the field in putting (which is an important stat to consider this week), the only positive to build off of in his recent form is the T30 at the Olympics, and even that was a bit of a letdown. I only like him as a GPP play this week.

 David Horsey (DK $7,700)

• Tournament History: WIN – 39^th
• Form: 47^th – 32^nd – MC – MC – 7^th – 31^st – 37^th – MC – MC
• Stats:78 – Scoring Avg, 59.11% – DA, 281.38 yards – DD, 65.56% – GIR
• Other – It’s not too often I’ll recommend playing a defending champion, but when he comes at a discount and has two solid finishes at a tournament I can’t ignore him. He’s not a very well-known player to most DFS circles, but has shown upside not only this year, but last year finished T3 at the Russian Open following his win. I’d prefer to see something better than a couple page 3 finishes coming in, but I still think he’s a good option for both cash and GPP’s this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Eddie Pepperell (DK $8,000) – Pepps was highlighted in last week’s article and took himself out of the tournament on Thursday with a double bogey on the tenth hole. Obviously that one hole wasn’t the only reason he missed the cut, but had he made par instead of double he would’ve been on the cut line and may have pressed a bit harder on Friday. Pepps is a good player (finished 4^th here two years ago, didn’t play last year) who is just very inconsistent, so don’t be afraid to fire him up in GPP’s this week. Stephen Gallacher (DK $7,200) – Gallacher has been struggling this year compared to last, but he continues to remain a solid links player. He’s made four of nine cuts this year and hasn’t been this expensive since DraftKings introduced Euro Tour DFS, so his ownership will be low. The thing I really like about him at this price is his birdie making ability, which is setup by his length off the tee (295.76 yards – DD) and Greens in Regulation percentage (66.87%). He needs to have a strong start like  at the Volvo & Irish Opens, where he made 32 total birdies.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 Tom Lewis (DK $6,800)

• Tournament History: 20^th – 15^th
• Form: 27^th – 9^th – 65^th – 26^th – MC – MC – 43^rd – MC
• Stats: 09 – Scoring Avg, 52.69% – DA, 297.35 yards – DD, 62.50% – GIR
• Other – The 25 year old won the 2009 Boys Amateur Championship, lost in a playoff in 2010 at the New South Wales Open, and turned pro in 2011 after the Walker Cup. In his pro debut he shot 74 in the first round and ended up finishing T10, two tournaments later he won his first tournament beating Rafa Cabrera Bello at the Portugal Masters. Since then he hasn’t caught the attention of many on the Euro Tour, but his 27^th place finish last week and that daunting driving distance average give me a glimmer of hope this week.

 Chris Hanson (DK $5,900)

• Tournament History: 39^th
• Form: 76^th – MC – 70^th – 45^th – 38^th – 10^th – 25^th – 34^th – 5^th – 4^th
• Stats: – 72.41 – Scoring Avg, 59.21% – DA, 291.51 yards – DD, 64.78% – GIR
• Other – So, things have kinda dropped off for the one that catches predators since his big run in the late spring, but he’s still making cuts (12/15 total) and really at this price, that’s all we need. The key for Hanson this week will be to avoid the dreaded double bogey like he was able to during the Lyoness Open where he fired off 15 birdies, 8 bogeys and zero doubles for a 10^th place finish and exceeded his value at $7,200.

 Shiv (S.S.P.) Chawrasia (DK $5,800)  

• Course History: MC – 9^th
• Form: 50^th – 43^rd – MC – MC – 50^th – 39^th – 27^th – MC – MC – 51^st – 56^th
• Stats: 33 – Scoring Avg, 63.35% – DA, 260.57 yards – DD, 63.01% – GIR
• Other – The 234^th ranked player in the world has now made two consecutive cuts (granted the last “cut” he made was in a no-cut event – Olympics), but I’d like to think he’s going to use how he played as a motivator going forward. At his price, we only need him to make the cut and I doubt he’ll have any kind of ownership to speak of in GPP’s (which is only where I’m suggesting playing him, he’s not even close to cash game worthy at this point). He’s shown flashes of some upside with his win at the Indian Open (home event) and the T27 he posted at the BMW PGA Championship.

ALSO CONSIDER – Edoardo Molinari (DK $6,700) – He’s not the better of the two Molinari’s, but Eddy has been pretty consistent since April having only missed one cut in that span. You’re not going to get much upside with this play, but if you set your expectations low to begin with you won’t be disappointed unless he misses the cut and when looking at his statistical breakdown, he’d have to really blow it here (280 off the tee, 59% of Greens in Regulation). Peter Lawrie (DK $5,700) – As far as old guys are concerned this week, Lawrie is my guy with the course history (14^th & 61^st). Outside of course history there’s not much to go off of, but I’m comfortable suggesting a 42 year old player who’s made the cut in both appearances and missed the cut on the number last week.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Marc Warren (DK $9,000)

• Course History: 44^th – WIN
• Form: 11^th – 16^th – MC – 62^nd – 65^th – MC – 31^st – 65^th – MC – 23^rd – 53^rd – MC – MC
• Stats: 70 – Scoring Avg, 52.35% – DA, 287.63 yards – DD, 61.32% – GIR
• Other – Warren was mentioned last week as a value play based on his extremely cheap price and paid off handsomely with an 11^th place finish, following up his 16^th place the previous event. As I mentioned last week, Warren is a bit of a late bloomer and plays some strong golf in the month of August so I’m looking at him again this week, but mainly for GPP’s as he’s a former winner here and is trending in the right direction. His price makes it difficult for me to stomach in cash games.

Nino Bertasio (DK $7,400)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 35^th – 30^th – 34^th – MC – 21^st – 19^th – 12^th – 41^st – 5^th – 11^th
• Stats: 96 – Scoring Avg, 55.17% – DA, 283.29 yards – DD, 65.44% – GIR
• Other – Nino continues to be a strong play in his rookie year following up his 30^th place finish at the Olympic games in Rio with a 35^th place finish at the Czech Masters. Nino birdied the 1^st hole every day except for Sunday where he made a bogey – and ultimately was the difference between a Top 20 finish and where he ended up. Its time to lean on the Italian Stallion one more week as they close out the Race to Dubai, where he currently sits 89^th. Just like the FedEx Cup, the Race to Dubai motivates these guys to play well down the stretch.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jaco Van Zyl (DK $9,300) – Many will look at this price and scoff, but when building GPP rosters you must go against the grain in certain situations. I have a feeling people will think David Lipsky will continue to build off of what he did last week, but I have a strong feeling about him falling flat so I’m looking at Jaco instead. Finishing 19^th after the Olympics may not seem all that impressive, but he improved every day this past weekend (75-68-70-70) and is a streaky player in his own right. Johan Carlsson (DK $8,000) Johan has actually been the better of the two “brothers” this year and possesses more upside, in my opinion. His history is equally as crappy as Mags’ (MC, 45^th), but his form is a bit more consistent as far as the finishes go (four Top 20’s, best finish being 8^th, worst finish in his last seven events is 54^th). I’ll be happy with anything inside the Top 25 this week. Magnus A Carlsson (DK $7,000) –  I can’t mention one Carlsson without mentioned the other (I’m contractually obligated as the founding member of #TeamBrothersCarlsson). Magnus has been a favorite of mine all year and this week is no exception. His history here is a bit shotty (58^th, MC), but his form has been above average enough for the past four months (no cuts missed, two Top 30’s, worst finish being 38^th) to be considered this week as a cut maker for our teams.  

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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