Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- European Tour- Czech Masters

OVERVIEW

We’re back on the Euro Tour this week with the Czech Masters! If you haven’t noticed yet, pretty much all the tournaments on the European Tour end with “Masters or Open”, and the “Masters” versions are somewhat prestigious just like our own Masters tournament… Well, not “just like it” but you know what I mean. Anyways, we head to a tournament that’s still in its infancy as there have only been two previous editions of this event. The course is links style with minimal trees (one tree may come into play on hole 11 and right of the landing zone on holes 15 & 18), water hazards come into play on seven holes (including 16-18 so there could be some drama!) and the course will play long regardless of winds speeds. The course also features five par fours over 440 yards (the longest being 490) and two par fives over 600 yards so driving distance will definitely be a key stat to look at this week.

 

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Albatross Golf Resort
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,516 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Prague, Czech Republic
• Expected scoring: I think we’ll see the leaders shoot somewhere around 15 under or better, but the gap between the top guys and the middle tier is where I’m most concerned. There’s a bevy of scrub golfers that can turn it on for a day or two so hopefully those guys don’t shoot themselves in the foot on Day 1.
• Past Champions (dating back to 2009):
• 2015: Thomas Pieters -20 over Pelle Edberg [-17]
• 2014: Jamie Donaldson -14 over Bradley Dredge [-12]

 

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, Greens in Regulation, Putts per GIR
• Important – Current Form, Course History

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STARS:

Andy Sullivan (DK $12,400)

• Course History: 52^nd
• Form: 49^th – 12^th – 6^th – 5^th – 21^st – 23^rd – 22^nd – MC – MC – 16^th
• Stats:22 – Scoring Avg, 60.32% – DA, 290.06 yards – DD, 70.99% GIR
• Other – Well, this was a bit of a shock to be honest. I figured Pieters would be the most expensive player coming off a solid performance at the Olympics and being the defending champion, but here we are with Sullivan at the top. Sullivan is a fade for me, but I don’t think he deserves to be faded 100% because he has plenty of game and doesn’t possess the volatility that Pieters does with injury concern or his temper. I think owning around 15%+ of Sully is a good spot for GPP’s. I wouldn’t consider him for cash games this week though.

  Thomas Pieters (DK $12,300)

• Course History: WIN – MC
• Form: 4^th – 86^th – 30^th – 29^th – 16^th – DQ – 27^th – MC – 26^th
• Stats: 09 – Scoring Avg, 53.99% – DA, 300.31 yards – DD, 67.81% – GIR
• Other – As mentioned above, Pieters is the defending champion this week. I don’t mind fading him with the thought that he’s tired from playing in Rio, but I think that the general consensus will be to fade him this week, so for that reason (as well as his driving ability which sets him up for shorter irons into the greens) I like him a lot for GPP’s.

Lee Westwood (DK $11,300)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 85^th – 22^nd – 11^th – 32^nd – 8^th – 15^th – 10^th
• Stats: 85 – Scoring Avg, 56.02% – DA, 286.50 yards – DD, 63.89% – GIR
• Other – Westy is back on the Euro Tour this week where he’s played substantially better this year. I don’t mind this price considering the strength of the field and some of the options we have down below for cash games as you need someone consistent up at the top to anchor your teams. Westy has only missed three cuts all year, but his best performance was at The Masters this year (in terms of DK points) so I think I’d fade him in GPP’s this week as he doesn’t seem likely to meet value at this price.

ALSO CONSIDER – Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $10,700) – It wasn’t too long ago that Fitz was sub $7k, and naturally he has played better since those days, but in this weak of a field there’s no way we could’ve asked for him to be cheaper than he is especially since he’s the 4^th highest ranked player in the OWGR in this field. Obviously that’s not an actual reason to play him, but his 9^th place finish at the Paul Lawrie Match Play is encouraging enough for me to give him a nod in GPP’s this week. Jamie Donaldson (DK $10,200) – Being a former winner is probably the only reason why he’s priced this high. He’s been below $7k on the PGA Tour the past few weeks and didn’t even come close to playing the weekend at that price so I can’t recommend him as a play this week except for as a GPP play & pray option. He has played more weekends on the Euro Tour this year, but I just don’t see it from him this year at all, so it’s tough for me to suggest him with any confidence (which usually means he’ll make a run at the top of the leaderboard for a couple days). Bradley Dredge (DK $9,500) – Dredge made the cut at the PGA Championship and finished 2^nd here in 2014, he’s ben up and down for the most part this year, but I think coming back to a course where he’s had success in the past is a good thing. His putting and scrambling numbers aren’t terrible either, so that should result in some low scores as long as he’s not putting tee shots in any hazards.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

 Matthew Southgate (DK $9,300)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 32^nd – 12^th – MC – 11^th – MC – 19^th – MC – 4^th – 50^th – 22^nd – 19^th – MC
• Stats:50 – Scoring Avg, 62.73% – DA, 279.32 yards – DD, 63.89% – GIR
• Other – Southgate stormed on the scene at the Open De France (finishing 11^th) and flashed some brilliance again at the PGA Championship (finishing T12). I didn’t see much of his rounds at the PGA, but they did mention him on the telecast a few times and the kid looked good. The “every other missed cut” trend is a concern especially at this price, but I think he presents a very nice contrarian option for GPP’s this week as a bit of an unknown player with good birdie making ability.

 Eddie Pepperell (DK $8,100)

• Tournament History: 22^nd – 5^th
• Form: 6^th – 54^th – 45^th – MC – MC – MC – 8^th – DQ – 45^th
• Stats: 13 – Scoring Avg, 47.45% – DA, 286.41 yards – DD, 66.42% – GIR
• Other – Fast Eddie is back in action this week on yet another links course to tickle his fancy. Pep let us all down at the BMW International and since then hasn’t done much. He has the tournament history here with a last year and the current form (three consecutive cuts made). He has full potential to meet & exceed value at his price this week and makes for a solid value play with high upside.

ALSO CONSIDER – Lee Slattery (DK $7,800) – Slatts has posted two Top 35’s in two appearances here (T30 & T34 respectively), and has posted four full events in the Czech Republic over his career as well, so there could be some comfort playing within the country itself. Marc Warren (DK $7,000) – Marc’s never played here, but he has made the cut in three appearances at events played in the Czech Republic. He tied for 9^th at the Match Play so the form could be there, and looking back at his career, he’s posted some of his strongest tournaments in the month of August (which means maybe he’s just a late bloomer, albeit every year). David Lipsky (DK $7,400) – He’s not the American player I would typically suggest playing in Euro Tour events, but Lipsky has had two good performances in this event (T19 & T22 after sitting in the Top 10 after 54 holes. His season has been a bit of a disappointment as far as potential not being met, but he still has time to make a run at finishing the season on a strong note.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Thomas Bjorn (DK $6,500)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 64^th – 62^nd – 61^st – 65^th – WD – 74^th – 52^nd – MC – 19^th
• Stats: 24 – Scoring Avg, 51.48% – DA, 274.57 yards – DD, 62.09% – GIR
• Other – As the season drags on, Bjorn continues to limp through to Sundays. His best finishes of the year were way back at the beginning of the season, but he has made eight of ten cuts this year and has met value in all 8 of those events. The concern here is distance off the tee and overall old man fatigue, but I think based on the fact that he’ll grind through whatever the course gives him he deserves some attention as the final piece of your roster puzzles this week.

 Dean Burmester (DK $6,300)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: MC – 20^th – 25^th – MC – MC – 38^th – DQ – 62^nd – 14^th – MC – 13^th
• Stats:09 – Scoring Avg, 54.40% – DA, 320.68 yards – DD, 67.52% – GIR
• Other – Burmy the bomber is just that – a bomber, which should allow him some short irons into a vast majority of these holes (especially the par 4’s). Burmester is coming off a T20 at the King’s Cup and I’m more than satisfied paying this price for someone who didn’t feel the weight of their homeland on their shoulders for the last week and could be seeing some positive momentum in his game.

 Tom Murray (DK $5,700)  

• Course History: MC
• Form: MC – 21^st – MC – MC – MC – MC – 5^th – 17^th – 23^rd – MC – 12^th
• Stats:70 – Scoring Avg, 52.86% – DA, 300.22 yards – DD, 61.67% – GIR
• Other – Who? Murray has played primarily on the Challenge Tour this year (Europe’s version of the Web.com Tour) and even though he’s got a lot of missed cuts in his current form, statistically he’s solid – especially off the tee. It’s a big flier to suggest him, but once you get past the $6,500 range it’s all a giant flier. I think Tom might be the best option out of all of the players down near the bottom of the barrel this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Oliver Fisher (DK $7,000) – Winner of the Czech Open in 2011 (with limited course history it might be worth it to look at the results from other events played in the Czech Republic) Oliver doesn’t present a ton of value with his lack of good performances, but you have to dig deep in these fields and having someone who’s won in this country previously isn’t the worst idea in the world. Chase Koepka (DK $5,800) – Relying mostly on name recognition here, the younger brother of our beloved Brooks tees it up on the Euro Tour again this week following a 54^th place finish on the Challenge Tour last week. He’s fairly long off the tee (it must run in the family) and was a force in college at USF. If you’re going this far down to find a player, why would you look at anyone else?

 

GPP PLAYS:

Max Kieffer (DK $8,300)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 8^th – 45^th – MC – MC – MC – MC – 5^th – 48^th – MC – 29^th
• Stats: 73 – Scoring Avg, 63.66% – DA, 280.32 yards – DD, 69.44% – GIR
• Other – It doesn’t take much research to see how Max fits as a GPP only play with several missed cuts and a couple Top 10’s sprinkled in between. He’s also has a 4^th place finish in a Challenge Tour event played in the Czech Republic so hopefully coming back to the Republic drums up some good memories of that event.Even in his T48 finish at the China Open, he scored 77 DK points, which is close enough for me to say he can meet value even if he’s not pegging Top 10’s.

Nino Bertasio (DK $8,000)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 30^th – 34^th – MC – 21^st – 19^th – 12^th – 41^st – 5^th – 11^th
• Stats: 96 – Scoring Avg, 55.17% – DA, 283.29 yards – DD, 65.44% – GIR
• Other – Nino did a good job representing Italy last week, obviously it’s a bit disappointing not finishing in the Top 25, let alone the Top 3, but he saw some of the strongest competition he’s probably ever seen last week. Fast forward to this week and he’s back to being a solid value play at his price and presents good birdie making upside and has the ability to get you those coveted finishing place bonus points.

ALSO CONSIDER – Callum Shinkwin (DK $9,000) – Shinks is taking up the spot of Wesley Bryan or Jon Rahm this week on the Euro Tour as “overpriced rookie”, but just like those two, he merits his price. Shinks has only missed four cuts this year (one being at the Open Championship where he was very close to sneaking thru the cut) and you can’t ignore the back to back Top 10’s he had at the Scottish Open and the Open De France (mainly because you need to have some kind of optimism if you’re going to be rostering him at almost a $3,000 price increase from the last time we were able to play him). There’s no doubt his ownership levels will be suppressed this week, which makes him a great GPP play, he just needs to play like we’ve seen him play prior to the Open and hope that his confidence wasn’t shaken. Richard Bland (DK $8,400) – Mr. Bland is back in my good graces this week after following up his missed cut at the Open De France with a T21 at the Scottish Open. Bland is just consistent at making cuts and knows how to grind it out hole after hole. I’m really liking the middle tier this week for GPP’s and I think it could be the contrarian way to build your lineups. Zander Lombard (DK $7,700) – Having made eight of ten cuts this year is a good start for someone you probably haven’t ever heard of. Zander made me take a longer look at him after his 21 birdie performance at the Lyoness Open where he took 5^th and backed that up with a T21 at the BMW International Open. South Africa doesn’t have a lot of talent on both tours, but what they lack in quantity, they more than make up for in quality of golfers.  

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

 

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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