Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- DP Championship (European Package)

OVERVIEW

This is it, the final event of the season for the European Tour. Last week we saw late bloomer Alex Noren capture his third win in four months and leap frog to number 9 in the world. Is he a contender or a pretender? That’s to be seen this week when he tees it up versus Rory, Iceman, Sergio and King Louis (among others) to win the Race to Dubai Championship. Stenson & Rory have won the last four Championships between them – Rory bookended Stenson’s back to back wins. So the question this week is, Rory or Iceman? If judging solely on how they played I’d lean Rory, but Stenson’s overall game may be enough to make me consider taking him over Rory before lineups lock on Thursday morning. Since this is a limited field event with no cut, I’d strongly consider not playing any cash games this week and reduce the amount you play normally by 50% and only play GPP’s. We’ve seen how volatile the European Tour has been all year and it’s just not worth the risk this week. That being said, all players listed will be listed as GPP only plays this week; we’ll pick up the cash game plays when the new season starts in a couple weeks.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Jumeirah Golf Estates
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,017 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
• Location: Dubai, United Arab Emirates
• Expected scoring:   
• Past Champions:
• 2015: Rory McIlroy -21 over Andy Sullivan [-20]
• 2014: Henrik Stenson -16 over Victor Dubuisson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose [-14]
• 2013: Henrik Stenson -25 over Ian Poulter [-19]
• 2012: Rory McIlroy -23 over Justin Rose [-21]
• 2011: Alvaro Quiros -19 over Paul Lawrie [-17]
• 2010: Robert Karlsson -14 over Ian Poulter in a playoff

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Greens in Regulation, Driving Distance, Ball Striking, Putts per GIR
• Important – Course History, Current Form, Scrambling

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STARS:

Rory McIlroy (DK $12,500)

• Course History: WIN – 2^nd – 5^th – WIN – 11^th – 5^th – 3^rd
• Current Form: 4^th
• Stats:78 – Scoring Avg, 58.57% – DA, 299.15 yards – DD, 78.33% – GIR
• Other – Rory is the favorite this week and for good reason. He’s the defending champion, has two wins here and in seven appearances he’s only finished outside the Top 10 once. His game has looked really sharp since he won the Tour Championship and the Fed Ex Cup, and I think he wants this win to solidify his status as best golfer in the world. If he wins here he jumps to #1 and you have to think he’s aware of that. I think he repeats and will be on 60% of my GPP teams this week.

Henrik Stenson (DK $11,600)

• Course History: 59^th – WIN – WIN – 7^th – 24^th – 23^rd
• Form: 8^th – 2^nd
• Stats:04 – Scoring Avg, 77.32% – DA, 289.09 yards – DD, 78.17% – GIR
• Other – Iceman is the 1b play this week and also for good reason. Personally, I’ll be under owned compared to the field this week on him, mainly because he’s shown us that when he’s not on, he’s really off. Last year’s 59^th place finish is the first indicator, as well as how he played during the Fed Ex Cup playoffs. The argument against that is that he’s finished 2^nd & 8^th in his last two events, but if you saw any Euro golf this weekend you’d see that he’s a tired looking man out there and unless he’s paired with Rory (which I would hope he would be) I don’t know if he can start fast enough to keep up with the first round leader and if it turns into a birdie fest he might not have enough birdies in him to make up the difference.

Alex Noren (DK $10,200)

• Course History: 38^th – 39^th – 37^th – 6^th
• Form: WIN – 12^th – 37^th – WIN
• Stats: 03 – Scoring Avg, 57.59% – DA, 289.12 yards – DD, 72.39% – GIR
• Other – I’m not going to spend much time on him this week. After each win this year he’s made the cut, but hasn’t done much else. Yes this is a no cut event and yes, he’s within sight of the Race to Dubai Championship, but I just don’t see it out of Noren. I’ll be more than happy to be burned by him this week at this price considering who we can get below him.

ALSO CONSIDER – Branden Grace (DK $9,700) played as well as expected last week and I think that continues again this week. Grace has the form coming in now and paired with his history at this event (three Top 10’s in four tries) I’ll definitely be pairing him with Rory & Henrik in my lineups. Andy Sullivan (DK $9,500) has been playing some weird golf lately. He finished 3^rd last week and could’ve actually made a run if not for a slow start on Thursday and a disappointing Sunday 72. His biggest thing this week will be eliminating bogies. If he can do that, he’ll easily pay off this salary. I’d play Charl Scwartzel (DK $9,100) in at least one lineup with each of Rory & Henrik this week. He disappointed a lot of people and when professional golfers disappoint in optimal situations, DFS players move away from good plays and that’s what Charl is this week. The history and form aren’t quite there, but he’s still considered the upper echelon of this field and deserves to be rostered this week.   

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Francesco Molinari (DK $8,900)

• Tournament History: 4^th – 16^th – 13^th – 34^th – 6^th – 6^th – 30^th
• Form: 4^th – 6^th – WIN
• Stats:54 – Scoring Avg, 74.55% – DA, 282.91 yards – DD, 70.14% – GIR
• Other – Since capturing his win at the Italian Open, the Italian Stallion has become quite the birdie maker on the European Tour. Known primarily for his accuracy off the tee, Franny has been crushing value at whatever price DraftKings decides to put him at and this week should be no different. I just hope the slow reduction in birdies is a coincidence and not a trend. As long as he doesn’t see double digit bogeys this week he should easily hit 89 DK points.

Byeong-Hun An (DK $8,800)

• Course History: 4^th
• Form: 10^th – 63^rd – 39^th
• Stats:88 – Scoring Avg, 48.32% – DA, 293.17 yards – DD, 72.59% – GIR

Other – Benny An has been up and down all year, but you can’t deny the upside he presents every week he tees it up. He didn’t look sharp in Shanghai and we got punched in the face in a no cut event. I think a lot of people will look at his price and the 4^th place finish here last year, click his name and move on. I don’t think that’s what we should be doing this week. He hasn’t fared well in no cut events this year outside of a weak field Olympics. I’ll be fading him 100% this week.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $8,100)

• Course History: 22^nd – 9^th – 14^th – 40^th – 26^th – 30^th
• Form: 55^th – 19^th – 10^th – 31^st – 12^th
• Stats: 61 – Scoring Avg, 59.57% – DA, 285.53 yards – DD, 75.44% – GIR
• Other – Rafa’s performance wasn’t good for us last week, but it was for this week. He should be lower owned due to the result and because of his price compared to others around him and how they performed last week. RCB continues to be a birdie making master and has bounced back well after sub-par performances. This is one of those spots.

ALSO CONSIDER – Joost Luiten (DK $8,000) has been doing things again since his September slumber 14^th last week, 16^th two weeks ago makes me think he’s back in it and headed for another Top 10 finish this week. The guy is a trender and he’s trending in the right direction leading up to the finale. Thorbjorn Oelsen (DK $7,900) was a fade last week coming off an overdue win, but it’s time to jump back in. TBO is considered overpriced this week compared to his Vegas odds so I assume people will be off of him, especially coming off last week’s poor performance. The thing that stands out to me this week, aside from his superior ball striking, is that he’s finished in the Top 21 in every appearance (5). He must be comfortable with his game on this course as he’s come in with similar poor form and played well every year. Victor Dubuisson (DK $7,600) decided he was due to wake up from his 2016 slumber last week finishing 3^rd, which pisses me off considering I’ve recommended him in similar situations and he came up flat. We want to be ahead of our competitors in this industry and it looks like I was a couple weeks early. His history (13^th – 2^nd – 3^rd – 36^th) will definitely stick out to sharper players, so the hope is that the public doesn’t. Richard Bland (DK $7,400) grabbed another Top 25 last week and as always should be in your lineups this week. He doesn’t have any course history so hopefully the ownership will be reduced this week.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

   Ricardo Gouveia (DK $6,700)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 3^rd – 13^th – 22^nd
• Stats:47 – Scoring Avg, 60.42% – DA, 288.09 yards – DD, 70.12% – GIR
• Other – Ricardo isn’t exactly a household name, but he’s been trending upwards since the playoffs started (see: form). Gouveia “burst” on the scene during the Rio Olympics for most people as casual players hadn’t really heard of him, but now you can’t ignore what he’s doing and even better yet, we’re getting an upwards trending player and a huge discount this week. I’m not saying he’s going to win, but as long as he gets around 15 birdies and stays under 10 bogeys he should smash value.

Nacho Elvira (DK $7,000)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: 25^th – 9^th – 9^th
• Stats: 72 – Scoring Avg, 54.43% DA, 292.87 yards – DD, 66.19% GIR
• Other – The Bombing Spaniard is another “trender” that’s a pretty good value play this week. I’m listing him below Ricardo as I feel like he’s the best value in the cheap price range, but Nacho is second. Nacho’s birdie numbers have spiked over the last three events and I’m not sure if he’s got things figured out in his game or if he’s just in the zone right now and benefitting from no cut events. Either way, fire him up with confidence this week. As long as he gets the finishing position bonus he should hit value at this price.

Raphael Jacquelin (DK $6,800)

• Tournament History: 48^th – 44^th – 16^th – 48^th – 21^st – 30^th
• Form: 11^th – 17^th – 22^nd – 49^th – MC – 36^th
• Stats: 28 – Scoring Avg, 61.39% – DA, 279.52 yards – DD, 66.89% – GIR
• Other – We’re going to keep riding the hot hand here after he’s helped us to some cash the last few weeks. He gets a small price bump this week ($300), but that’s not enough for me to look elsewhere. Raph is a savvy vet who may not have good course history, but has the form we like in GPP plays. I’ll be using him with Ricardo & and a pivot to Ricardo in spots where I don’t need the extra salary relief this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Renato Paratore (DK $7,300) has two Top 25’s in his last two events and three in his last four. Had I not looked I wouldn’t have known that. He’s another guy we were introduced to during the Olympics in Rio and has had flashes of Top 10 upside. I don’t see why he can’t do it again this week where there’s no cut to grind over. Andrew Johnston (DK $7,100) may seem like an underpriced play this week based on his popularity alone, but he hasn’t done much since his great finish at the Open Championship. I’ll let others play an underwhelming Beef this week. Gregory Bourdy (DK $7,100) has been a DFS dandy for small periods of time this year and I assume people will go back to him again this week at this price. I don’t hate the play because on paper he does have the game to be in the Top 20 of this field and has been trending upward in each of his last three starts (20^th – 31^st – 52^nd). Pablo Larrazabal (DK $6,900) will probably be popular this week considering his course history (22^nd – 16^th – 26^th – 36^th – 10^th) and should be used as a pivot off of Nacho & Raphael in spots. I also like creating lineups with all three, which gives me a remaining salary of $29,600 for the last 3 players in my lineup ($9,866/ea). 

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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