Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Deutsche Bank Championship

OVERVIEW
Iceman killed me last week. I was 100% locked in on him and he came out flat, made up some excuse to leave early and turned my team of six into a team of five before Friday. I wish that was where the bad news ended, but apparently I was preoccupied from Tuesday through Thursday night and never changed my placeholder lineup. Five of six turned into four with KJ Choi missing the cut by a million shots, and then three after Charles Howell III reminded me of why you never play someone in their first event off of any kind of swing related surgery. Learn from my mistake this week, and make sure you double check your lineups before you go to bed on Wednesday. It was an expensive price to pay, but I won’t make that mistake again. We’re at Stage 2 of the FedEx Cup playoffs and the last event with a cut this week. There’s only 99 players in the field this week, so making sure you have 6/6 through will be imperative and if you’re looking to win GPPs you’re going to need to have the nuts for your lineup. One item I will note is to try building rosters without looking at pricing. Play your strongest plays and leave whatever you have on the table, your lineup will be extremely unique and you’re going to need to be unique from here on out if you want to keep all the monies to yourself.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• TPC Boston
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,297 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
o Location: Norton, MA
o Expected scoring: Last week I overshot the winning score by 3 shots. There will be low scores this week and it could be a birdie fest, or close to it. Expect some low scores, -19 wins it in my opinion this week.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Rickie Fowler -15 over Henrik Stenson [-14]
• 2014: Chris Kirk -15 over Geoff Ogilvy, Billy Horschel & Russell Henley [-13]
• 2013: Henrik Stenson -22 over Steve Stricker [-20]
• 2012: Rory McIlroy -20 over Louis Oosthuizen [-19]
• 2011: Webb Simpson -15 over Chez Reavie in a playoff
• 2010: Charley Hoffman -22 over Geoff Ogilvy, Luke Donald & Jason Day [-17]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG: APP, SG:T2G,Birdie or Better %, SG:P, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – Putting 10-15’, Putting 5-10’

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STARS:

Jason Day (DK $12,500)
• Course History: 12th – 7th – 13th – 51st – 3rd – 2nd – 19th – 50th
• Form: 4th – 2nd – 14th – 22nd – 3rd – 8th – 27th – WIN
• Stats: 40th – SG: APP, 1st – SG:P, 11th – SG:T2G, 15th – DD, 5th – Birdie Avg, 27th – Scrambling, 1st – Putting from 10’, 5th – P5 BoB
• Other – Jason will not be faded by me going forward. Last week he ranked 3rd to last in driving accuracy and finished 4th. Sunday it seemed like he was putting himself further and further away from the hole on his approaches and continued to pour in the birdies. He’s simply on a completely different level than everyone else this year and deserves to be the favorite for every tournament from here on out. Course history and form line up for success, fade at your own risk in all formats.

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,100)
• Course History: 29th – 5th – 47th – WIN – 37th
• Form: 31st – MC – 5th – 3rd – MC – 4th
• Stats: 58th – SG:APP, 130th – SG:P, 2nd – SG:T2G, 10th – DD, 2nd – Birdie Avg, 74th – Scrambling, 194th – Putting from 10’, 1st – P5 BoB
• Other – Rory played a bit better last week and I’m chalking that up to his ability to gain strokes prior to getting to the green. His crux this year has been his putter, but he has that extra gear when getting on familiar courses and that’s what we have this week. If Rory doesn’t win, my guess is he’s Top 5. I think he works hard on getting his putter figured out during the week and gets his shit together before the cut this week.

Adam Scott (DK $10,400)
• Course History: 16th – 53rd – 7th – 8th – 5th – MC – 16th – 50th – 2nd
• Form: 4th – 18th – 43rd – 10th – 18th
• Stats: 1st – SG:APP, 140th – SG:P, 1st – SG:T2G, 14th – DD, 12th – Birdie Avg, 85th – Scrambling, 27th – Putting from 10’, 24th – P5 BoB
• Other – Scott made a nice run last week to get himself back in the conversation for player of the year. Look no further than his SG:APP & SG:T2G ranks to see why he had success last week and why he’s being highlighted this week. Putting, like so many other players, is what holds him back from destroying the field each week and since putting is such a variance dependent portion of the game, I think we look past his struggles and roster him in both cash & GPP’s this week. All we need is a WARM putter for one day, and I think he could easily wrap this tournament up, but it needs to get warm or else we’ll see him Donkey Kong his way up and down the leaderboard all week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jordan Spieth (DK $11,600) – $600 price increase on the Golden Boy this week after a much better performance than what I saw at the PGA Championship. Spieth looks to be back to his old self and is trending in the right direction heading to East Lake. It wouldn’t surprise me if he won this week with an extremely hot putter that bails him out time after time like we know he’s capable of. Henrik Stenson (DK $10,700) – As mentioned in the overview, he burned me badly last week and I’m sure about 25% of you feel my pain. If his knee is really an issue you have to fade him since he’s a lock to make it to the end of the playoffs. If it’s not, I see no reason not to play him this week. We know how good of a statistical fit he is and that’s backed up by his 2nd here last year and the win in 2013. Patrick Reed ($10,200) – This isn’t a ringing endorsement for Reed. Yes we were on him last week, yes he won, but now he’s back up over $9k and this is your suggestion to fade in GPP’s. I’m fine with using him in cash, but I think the win last week (which resulted in locking up his Ryder Cup spot along with guaranteeing he makes it to East Lake) puts him back on cruise control this week and wouldn’t expect anything better than a Top 25. His decision making on Sunday with a 3 shot lead was questionable and there comes a time for aggressive play and this week isn’t it.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,500)
• Course History: 4th – 31st – 26th – 5th – 16th
• Form: 8th – MC – 5th – 5th – 5th
• Stats: 15th – SG:APP, 115th – SG:P, 12th – SG:T2G, 32nd – DD, 11th – Birdie Avg, 136th – Scrambling, 156th – Putting from 10’, 39th – P5 BoB
• Other – When a course calls for ball striking look no further than El Nino. There’s a bit of concern with where he currently sits in the FedEx Cup race and the impact that may have if things go sour early, but for the most part Sergio is a guy that will grind out slow starts especially on courses that suit his game. I love where he’s priced this week because a lot of people will go with Phil over him which results in a nice dip in ownership, which is something we haven’t seen for a while with Garcia.

Brooks Koepka (DK $8,700)
• Tournament History: MC
• Form: 70th – 9th – 4th – WD – 13th – 2nd
• Stats: 71st – SG:APP, 19th – SG:P, 34th – SG:T2G, 18th – DD, 6th – Birdie Avg, 134th – Scrambling, 2nd – Putting from 10’, 37th – P5 BoB
• Other – Brooks gets a huge decrease in price this week coming off probably the worst outing of the year aside from the Frys at the beginning of the year. The missed cut here last year combined with the big numbers made last week (he made 4 double bogeys to go along with his 17 bogeys, but 18 birdies) will undoubtedly result in a lower ownership across GPPs this week. Look for Brooks to bounce back nicely this week.

Matt Kuchar (DK $8,400)
• Tournament History: 9th – 29th – 4th – 35th – 25th – 11th – 15th – MC – 40th – 27th – 17th
• Form: 64th – 3rd – 17th – MC – 9th – 46th – 3rd – 46th – 4th
• Stats: 49th – SG:APP, 21st – SG:P, 17th – SG:T2G, 143rd – DD, 14th – Birdie Avg, 36th – Scrambling, 95th – Putting from 10’, 31st – P5 BoB
• Other – I’m more than happy to be writing up Matt this week coming off an expected poor performance on a course that didn’t suit his game, and we get him in his wheelhouse as far as price is concerned. Kuch has ample course history here and shows a lot of comfort in those finishes. Pair that with only two missed cuts on the year and you’ve got a great player for cash & GPP’s this week. Don’t try to get cute with your cash lineups, Kuchar will pay dividends this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,600) – Mats has been up and down the past few weeks and even though we can’t tell how he REALLY feels about his ball striking, it seems like he’s really not happy with where he is right now. Unfortunately for us, even when he disgusted with his ball striking, he seems to hit the ball beautifully and typically within 10 feet of the pin. I hate to be a broken record, but he leaves me no choice, his putter is a huge hole in his game and it needs to heat up this week. This price on HidekiBot is too juicy to pass up this week. Billy Horschel (DK $8,500) – Last week we got BillyHo at a huge discount and he exceeded his value for the 2nd week in a row. This week he gets the much warranted price bump and I still think he’s a solid value play in cash and GPPs. Billy says he hates shootouts, but he’s been a birdie making machine since the Windham and I don’t think that changes this week. He’ll be popular this week because of his trending, but I’m not sure how popular because of the soft pricing at the bottom of the field so make sure you check out the ownership projections before lock on Friday. Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,300) – Schwartzel’s only missed one cut this year (The Masters) so right away he catches my eye for cash games (what else is new). He’s struggled to make birdies and meet value for GPP purposes, so I think I would temper expectations and mainly focus on him in your cash lineups this week. Maybe something clicks this week for him, but I’m not ready to have two guys in the $8k range in my GPP lineups quite yet.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Steve Stricker (DK $7,000)
• Tournament History: 2nd – 13th – 42nd – 9th – WIN – 13th – 8th – 7th – MC – MC
• Form: 53rd – 52nd – 42nd – 4th – 21st – 2nd
• Stats: 125th – SG:APP, 4th – SG:P, 117th – SG:T2G, 186th – DD, 76th – Birdie Avg, 2nd – Scrambling, 45th – Putting from 10’, 70th – P5 BoB
• Other – Stricker is the epitome of a course horse this week and comes in at a fair price. It’s been two years since his last appearance at TPC Boston, but I don’t think that impacts him much at all as he’s accustomed to taking time off between starts and typically plays well on courses where he has done well in the past. I don’t think he makes enough birdies for GPP purposes, but I really like what he offers for cash games this week.

Bill Haas (DK $6,700)
• Tournament History: 60th – 9th – MC – 35th – 61st – 22nd – 15th – 69th – 15th – 9th
• Form: MC – 22nd – 56th – 9th – 38th – 3rd – 51st – MC
• Stats: 36th – SG:APP, 157th – SG:P, 20th – SG:T2G, 109th – DD, 183rd – Birdie Avg, 12th – Scrambling, 191st – Putting from 10’, 146th – P5 BoB
• Other – Haas struggled last week and ended up missing the cut. If you’ve ever read my article prior to today, you know that I love to target him coming off missed cuts as he’s finished in the Top 10 more times than missing a second straight cut (only recently has he not cracked the Top 10 following a missed cut). Bethpage didn’t suit his game, but TPC Boston sets up perfectly for him this week. Lock him into both your cash & GPP lineups this week.

Marc Leishman (DK $5,800)
• Course History: MC – 65th – 16th – 42nd – 42nd – 61st – 15th
• Form: MC – 9th – 60th – 53rd – 55th – 39th – 18th – 11th
• Stats: 119th – SG:APP, 52nd – SG:P, 68th – SG:T2G, 51st – DD, 101st – Birdie Avg, 63rd – Scrambling, 27th – Putting from 10’, 69th – P5 BoB
• Other – Playing Leishman at $5,800 is probably a trap, but I don’t care. This is a talented player at an ungodly discount this week and if you plan on taking two guys at the top you have to drop down in this range to be able to complete your lineup. In events where Leishman has made the cut, he’s met the value of a $5,800 player 100% of the time, and has exceeded value in all but one of those events. Leishman is the free space this week in cash games, but fading him in GPP’s might be a solid strategy as he might see 50% ownership.

ALSO CONSIDER – Chris Kirk (DK $6,400) – Kirk is 5/5 in cuts made at TPC Boston including a win two years ago. He’s a streaky player and has a bit too many missed cuts for my liking this week for cash, but I like his price and those that surround him for GPPs. He seems like an “all or nothing player” when coming off missed cuts, so make sure to give him a look if you’re in need of some salary relief. Webb Simpson (DK $6,100) – Ugh, I hate writing up Webb, but this is what we get when DraftKings prices him this low. Webb gains strokes from tee to green and gives them back on the putting surface so this is not a cash recommendation unless you have a weak heart that is in need of a jolt over the weekend. Like Matsuyama, he needs a luke-warm (not hot) putter to be a difference maker this week. Hudson Swafford (DK $5,500) – Swafficer returns after a decent performance last week where he didn’t gag away all of his strokes gained like usual. Is this a turning of the tide for him? Probably not, but last year he was in the thick of things until a Sunday 76 dropped him to a T33 finish. He’s a birdie maker that usually goes off Thursday & Friday or Thursday & Saturday so he’s in play for cash & GPP’s this week.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Dustin Johnson (DK $12,100)
• Course History: 44th – 27th – 4th – 42nd – 57th – 4th
• Form: 18th – MC – 2nd – 9th – WIN – WIN – 5th – 3rd
• Stats: 26th – SG:APP, 44th – SG:P, 3rd – SG:T2G, 1st – DD, 1st – Birdie Avg, 70th – Scrambling, 49th – Putting from 10’, 8th – P5 BoB
• Other – His price makes him a fine play for cash, but I think Day has a higher floor than DJ for cash. Coming off a long layoff, struggling a bit on Thursday and Friday and still finishing in the Top 20 last week is enough for me to consider DJ for GPP’s this week. We know he’s having a phenomenal year, his ball striking and putting is almost as impressive as his driving during his big run from the US Open to the PGA Championship. Last week the rust was knocked off, this week he brings his A game.

Daniel Berger (DK $8,100)
• Course History: 12th
• Form: 70th – 5th – 73rd – WD – 37th – WIN – 67th – 9th – 17th
• Stats: 29th – SG:APP, 47th – SG:P, 39th – SG:T2G, 34th – DD, 22nd – Birdie Avg, 125th – Scrambling, 97th – Putting from 10’, 40th – P5 BoB
• Other – So the $6,700 Daniel Berger experiment didn’t go as planned last week. I would’ve had him in my lineup had I remembered to switch, but I guess it wasn’t meant to be. This week he comes in with a higher price, but as you may remember he started to get things going at the TPC Boston in 2015. I think a lot of people will scoff at the price increase, but really last week was more of a pricing error than anything. He’s right where he should be this week and statistically makes for a strong play.

ALSO CONSIDER – Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,000) – Keeping the same guys in here as last week. Oostie hasn’t finished outside the Top 20 in half a year (with the exception of his missed cut at The Open Championship). Oostie is a ball striker who’s long off the tee and can putt. This is exactly who we want to target this week in GPPs. His ownership was pretty low last week, but with a 2nd place finish in 2010 I’d expect a bit of a bump this week from the #TeamCH group. Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,000) – Grillo was there all week, and ended up doing exactly what I thought he’d do when leading the tournament; miss putts that were crucial to his confidence. Had he made 2 of the easy putts he had on Sunday he wins the event or at worst is in a playoff with Reed. I think the positivity continues this week and Grillo should be part of your core for GPP’s this week even if he comes in $700 more expensive than last week. Charley Hoffman (DK $7,300) – Hoffman might be popular this week, but based on how I expect a lot of the general public to go about their roster construction I don’t believe he will see anything over 15%. Uncle Chuck is a pure ball striker, who typically depends on streaks of chip-ins and low percentage putts to drop in order to contend week after week so the only time he’s a cash consideration is during the Texas Swing. This week he comes in fresh off two events he’s exceeded his value at basically the same price. The course sets up much better for his game than Bethpage did, so I’d expect to see that finishing place number crack the Top 10 this week as he’s trending in that direction (T25, T13 in his last two events) and it doesn’t hurt that he’s got some solid course history either (3rd last year, Winner in 2010, five Top 35’s).

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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