Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview – Deutsche Bank Championship

Its 2:30 am on Friday morning and No, I am not just stumbling in from the bar. I have worked all day, made dinner for my kids, got their baths and pajamas on and in bed. I should have fallen asleep instantaneously after a hard day, but simply couldn’t sleep. It has been like this for several weeks now, as my mind races thinking about the opportunity that is sitting in front of us this week. For those of you who do not know, we have qualified for the Fantasy Golf World Championships this week at The Deutche Bank sponsored by Draftkings. There are 25 spots and we have two of them with the winner taking home a check for $200,000. Now you can see why I have been a bit on edge for a while. I have played in the World Series of Poker for a decade now and haven’t been this anxious before, but when I am competing against 3,000 people to win the WSOP championship, my expectations are a bit more tempered. This is a 2 in 25 shot at maybe not completely life changing money, but definitely life enhancing money, plus maybe more importantly to me the title of champion. Zachary can attest to the fact that I am a bit over-the-top competitive and I absolutely detest losing and he is much the same. It is weird, I think I actually hate losing more than I enjoy winning. In fear of not winning this week, I have spent more time researching than I have for any other contest in my life. I feel like the championship would be something that I can share with the entire FGI family. If you have any good Karma you can send our way, it would be very much appreciated. One of our members, Packfan990 who is a stud DFS Golf guy himself also has two seats in Boston and will be competing against us. Obviously we want to win, but if we don’t, we will definitely be rooting for him. You can throw some good vibes his way as well (just a little less than us 🙂

Last week Jason Day continued his unconscious play, with a dominating six shot victory and a win at the first leg of the FedEx cup playoffs. We had him ranked as one of our top recommendations last week, but the report of him wrenching his back on Tuesday and having him withdraw from the pro-am, forced us to scale back on our exposure. Situations like this are so frustrating, because nobody really knows how bad the injury is, and we do not want to take the risks of him missing the cut or playing miserably like Webb Simpson did when the report came out that he wrenched his back and proceeded to miss the cut. We believe that it is better to be conservative in situations like this because a withdrawal is so damaging.

Besides the recommendation of Jason Day, there were some recommendations that turned out beautifully and others that flopped. The obvious ones that flopped were Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, and David Lingmerth. Frankly there really is not any explanation for either who had been playing amazing golf coming in, their stats excelled in the right categories, and everything lined up. Sometimes it’s just golf and the unexplainable happens. Enough of the negative and on to the positive including Tony Finau and Justin Rose who finished T16, Danny Lee T30, and Robert Streb T39. Now on to the sleepers, which were absolutely incredible with four out of five making the cut. Shawn Stefani and Morgan Hoffman finished T39, Jason Bohn T9, and our inaugural Off the Wall (Are You Fu*#ing Kidding me) Pick of the week, Ryan Palmer chalked up a T6 despite horrible form coming in and the death of his father last week. The real beauty of this was that he was owned by between 1-2% of entrants in most contests on Draftkings. We have heard from several of you who included Palmer on your rosters with Day and were able to parlay into some good money in GPPs.

This week for the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, The Deutsche Bank Championship is held at TPC Boston, which is in Norton, Massachusetts, approximately 25 miles south of Boston. Because it is Labor Day weekend the tournament will not start until Friday and will wrap up on Monday.  We are now down to the top 100 players in the FedEx Cup standings and will reduce down to 70 following this week in preparation for the BMW Championship. Per usual the top 70 players in the field, plus ties will make the cut. After a brief hiatus Rory McIlroy is back to #1 in the world and will return to action this week.
TPC Boston is a Par-71, measures 7,242 yards long, and was originally designed by Arnold Palmer, but was re-designed in 2007 by Gil Hanse, with PGA TOUR player Brad Faxon serving as a consultant. The course features three Par 5s and four Par 3s.

The key statistics that need to be analyzed this week include Par 3, 4 and 5 scoring, Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained Putting, Proximity to the hole, and birdie or better %. For DFS last week it was technically a bit easier to get guys through the cut because there were only 119 players in the field as opposed to the normal 156. This week it becomes even easier with 100 players in the field, and getting six guys through should not be your focus as much as getting high place finishers. This will allow us to take a few more chances on guys who usually run the risk of missing the cut. Selecting six cut makers just to get through and accumulate points will not be enough this week to do any damage in GPPs so keep that in mind.

If you haven’t checked out FantasyAces yet be sure to this week. Our own Roger Casey’s article is written specifically for FantasyAces scoring system and pricing model.  If you sign up through this link: SIGN UP FOR FANTASY ACES
Use the Promo Code: INSIDER, you will get an outstanding 20% first time bonus (up to $250). If you do it through this link or the banner on our front page we get credit for you signing up and can keep making FGI better. If you have specific questions, feel free to shoot us an email, or hit us up on Twitter @Fantasygolfers.

We are back to a tournament that has been held at the same course over the years, so tournament history becomes much more important than last week. There are several players who stand out as having tremendous success over the years at TPC Boston. Be sure to check out the Tournament History Page to see the results for every field over the last seven years.

Also be sure to check out the sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, which reveals some significant differences this week on various sites and presents us value.

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, and more, become a premium member.
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You are going to see a lot of the same names in this week’s recommendations as you did last week. The reduced field, same current form, the fact that the course this week is somewhat similar and the stats that are most indicative of success are much the same are all reasons why. There is no purpose to deviating from the correct formula that has been working, just to be different. Do not make the mistake of overreacting to poor performances by certain guys last last week, but instead use it as an opportunity to get a guy who others will only take into account last week’ results and thus reduce their ownership. There are a few of those guys included below.

 

Top Stud Picks:

 

Jason Day- There is not player in the field this week with a better combination of current form, tournament history, and statistics. That is why Day is our number one pick this week. Coming in red hot with a dominant win last week at The Barclays, win at The PGA Championship, T12 at WGC Bridgestone, and win at RBC Canadian. He has owned this course in the past with a 7th last year, 13th in 2013, 51st in 2012, 3rd in 2011, and 2nd in 2010. (Mostly GPP because of price)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 11th
Strokes Gained Putting-9th
Par 3 Scoring- 1st
Par 4 Scoring- 2nd
Par 5 Scoring- 10th
Greens in Regulation- 22nd
Proximity to the hole- 152nd
Birdie or Better %- 1st

 

Jordan Spieth- While a lot of people will allow last weeks missed cut to cloud their judgement, we will not allow that to happen. We know he wasn’t good last week, but expect this past weekend’s performance and losing world #1 to light a fire under the player of the year. Outside of last weeks missed cut, Spieth’s current form has been outstanding with a runner up at the PGA Championship, T10 at WGC Bridgestone, T4 at The Open, and win at John Deere. Spieth has two appearances at TPC Boston where he has a 29th last year and 4th in 2013. This is a great buying opportunity. (Mostly GPP because of price)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-3rd
Strokes Gained Putting-6th
Par 3 Scoring- 14th
Par 4 Scoring- 1st
Par 5 Scoring- 27th
Greens in Regulation- 55th
Proximity to the hole- 27th
Birdie or Better %- 2nd

 

Rory McIlroy- Can he regain the dominating form that he had earlier this season where he won at The WGC Match Play and Wells Fargo? This is a very difficult thing to predict. He came back from his injured ankle at Whistling Straits for the PGA Championship and took 17th. An interesting thing to take note of is that he started out shooting a pair of 71s on Thursday and Friday, but then proceeded to fire a 68 on Saturday and 69 on Sunday. This indicates to us that it took him a bit to knock the rust off, but when he did, he was back to his old form. The week off last week should put him at an advantage over others who played four tough rounds at The Barclays and we look at that as a positive for Rory. He has proven that he can conquer TPC Boston as he had a 5th last year and won in 2012. McIlroy is going to be charged up to try and take the spotlight off of Day and Spieth, who have been the talk of golf all season, not Rory, which has to be bugging him. Finally, the best part about McIlroy this week is that his ownership in DFS will be lower than Day and Spieth. (Mostly GPP)

Statistics do not qualify for PGA Tour Ranking.

 

Justin Rose- Some of the most resiliency we have seen in a long time, Rose struggled mightily on Thursday at The Barclays with a +7, 77. He bounced back with a 65 on Friday to make the cut, posted a 63 on Saturday, and ended up finishing T16. He has been absolutely amazing the past two months with a 4th at the PGA Championship, T3 at WGC Bridgestone, T4 at Quicken Loans, and T6 at US Open. The one hiccup this week for Rose is his lack of good tournament history with two missed cuts in his past five appearances and only a 16th as his best finish in that span. We like Day and Spieth more this week, however when you factor in a lower ownership in GPPs for Rose he becomes a bit appealing. (Mostly GPP)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-6th
Strokes Gained Putting-75th
Par 3 Scoring- 22nd
Par 4 Scoring- 49th
Par 5 Scoring- 5th
Greens in Regulation- 8th
Proximity to the hole- 15th
Birdie or Better %- 4th

 

Matt Kuchar- A T39 was not the result we were expecting for Kuchar last week at The Barclays. Up to that point he had been trending upward since mid-July with a T7 at RBC Canadian, T25 at WGC Bridgestone, and T7 at the PGA Championship. Just like with The Barclays, Kuchar has a solid tournament history at The Deutsche Bank with a 29th last year, 4th in 2013, 35th in 2012, 25th in 2011, 11th in 2010, and 15th in 2009. His ownership in DFS was extremely high last week and we expect that to drop a bit, seeing how badly he disappointed. We still think he has the opportunity for a Top 10 in this field however. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-28th
Strokes Gained Putting-29th
Par 3 Scoring- 133rd
Par 4 Scoring- 11th
Par 5 Scoring- 8th
Greens in Regulation- 101st
Proximity to the hole- 162nd
Birdie or Better %- 28th

 

Brooks Koepka- We feel the same about Koepka as we do Spieth this week. When a solid investment dips, it presents a buy opportunity, and we are going to load up. He missed the cut for the first time in months, big deal, we knew he would eventually. While some will desert him, we will not. Before his missed cut last week at The Barclays, Koepka was on an unbelievable run with seven straight Top 20s including a T6 at Wyndham, T5 at the PGA Championship, and T6 at WGC Bridgestone in his last three. This will be his first appearance at The Deutsche Bank, which is a bit of a negative. Finally, the tournament that Koepka won this season was the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, which measures 7,266 (within 20 yards of TPC Boston) Koepka has been playing too well and we are going to take the opportunity of people’s bitterness and cash in. (GPP and Cash Games).

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-20th
Strokes Gained Putting-8th
Par 3 Scoring- 161st
Par 4 Scoring- 6th
Par 5 Scoring- 4th
Greens in Regulation- 9th
Proximity to the hole- 57th
Birdie or Better %- 8th

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Tony Finau- After leading the tournament after day 2, a T16 finish isn’t exactly stellar. However if you look at it a different way, a T16 from a player priced at $7,300 on Draftkings is really good value. The guy has been locked in recently with ten Top 25s in his last twelve events. We recommended him last week and said that he was an unbelievable value for his price and he proved that correct. This week he is only $7,700, so he still looks like an excellent value pick. His Par 4 and 5 scoring is really good as well as his birdie or better, which all make him a really solid pick again this week. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-29th
Strokes Gained Putting-127th
Par 3 Scoring- 60th
Par 4 Scoring- 21st
Par 5 Scoring- 20th
Greens in Regulation- 48th
Proximity to the hole- 159th
Birdie or Better %- 12th

 

Robert Streb- The fact that he had a lousy three over par Sunday dropping him back to T39 actually is ok with us, because the attention will not be on him nearly as much as if he would have held in the Top 15, like he was the first three days. Before last week Streb had a T10 at the PGA Championship, 5th at WGC Bridgestone, T18 at The Open, T14 at John Deere, and T2 at Greenbrier. The guy is playing rock solid and we really like him this week. Last year was his first appearance at The Deutsche Bank and he too 9th. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-26th
Strokes Gained Putting-21st
Par 3 Scoring- 6th
Par 4 Scoring- 8th
Par 5 Scoring- 57th
Greens in Regulation- 16th
Proximity to the hole- 159th
Birdie or Better %- 22nd

 

Jason Bohn- Fortunately and unfortunately Bohn played outstanding last week finishing T9 after we recommended him as our top sleeper. We are happy because we had him on a lot of our cash game and GPP rosters, but unhappy that he is no longer a secret for this week. In his last ten events now Bohn has six Top 15s including a T37 at The PGA Championship, T4 at Quicken Loans, T12 at John Deere, and T13 at Greenbrier in his last four. Bohn placed 35th here last year, 41st in 2010, and 32nd in 2009. Bohn as he has found something in his game that he did not have in the past. The best part about Bohn is he is a birdie machine and ranks amongst the best on The PGA Tour in birdie average. Plus he is a Par 3 and 4 monster ranking amongst the best on the PGA tour. His current play is enough to make us want to buy more this week in addition to his price only being $7,300 on Draftkings. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-34th
Strokes Gained Putting-27th
Par 3 Scoring- 14th
Par 4 Scoring- 3rd
Par 5 Scoring- 57th
Greens in Regulation- 11th
Proximity to the hole- 2nd
Birdie or Better %- 15th

 

Russell Henley- Although he made the cut last week at The Barclays, Henley combusted on Saturday posting a 6 over 76, which destroyed any hope of a quality finish and ended up T72. As with Spieth and Koepka, we think he will bounce back and the poor round will only help us positively as it will reduce his ownership. He has now made 19 cuts in 22 events this season with 11 Top 25s and four Top 10s. His last previous tournaments before last week have produced a a T12 at PGA Championship, T17 WGC Bridgestone, T20 at The Open, and a 5th at Greenbrier, T20 at The Open, T17 at WGC Bridgestone, and T12 at the PGA Championship. Two appearances at The Deutsche Bank he has a 62nd in 2013 and runner-up finish last year. He is a streaky player, who can get hot with the putter, and we expect him to play well this week at TPC Boston. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-88th
Strokes Gained Putting-7th
Par 3 Scoring- 42nd
Par 4 Scoring- 54th
Par 5 Scoring- 47th
Greens in Regulation- 75th
Proximity to the hole- 170th
Birdie or Better %- 32nd

 

Danny Lee- A bit of a disappointment last week taking T30 at The Barclays, but definitely not a disaster considering his price. His current form is a T6 at WGC Bridgestone, T4 at Quicken Loans, T3 at John Deere, and win at Greenbrier mark his last four appearances outside of links style courses. Lee took 35th last year at Deutsche Bank in his first and only appearance. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-57th
Strokes Gained Putting-26th
Par 3 Scoring- 4th
Par 4 Scoring- 49th
Par 5 Scoring- 70th
Greens in Regulation- 107th
Proximity to the hole- 30th
Birdie or Better %- 24th

 

Justin Thomas- Another very solid performance last week at The Barclays finishing T16. Before last week Thomas had a T56 at Wyndham, T18 at the PGA Championship, T4 at Quicken Loans, and T5 at John Deere. Much like Finau, Thomas is very good in accumulating birdies and actually ranks 2nd on tour in Par 4 scoring, one of our key stats this week. (GPPs and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-21st
Strokes Gained Putting-108th
Par 3 Scoring- 28th
Par 4 Scoring- 54th
Par 5 Scoring- 2nd
Greens in Regulation- 34th
Proximity to the hole- 79th
Birdie or Better %- 7th

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Kevin Kisner- Another victim of Chambers Bay and Whistling Straits, Kisner has not missed a cut outside of those two since mid-April. A T20 last week at The Barclays, T37 at WGC Bridgestone, T35 at John Deere, and runner-up at The Greenbrier mark his most finishes outside of the long links style courses that clearly do not fit his game. This will be Kisner’s first appearance at TPC Boston. Very solid in most every statistical category including scoring, especially Par 5 where he ranks 20th. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-43rd
Strokes Gained Putting-41st
Par 3 Scoring- 41st
Par 4 Scoring- 49th
Par 5 Scoring- 20th
Greens in Regulation- 82nd
Proximity to the hole- 58th
Birdie or Better %- 112th

 

George McNeill- Only three missed cuts since mid-March, and two of them were at Whistling Straits and Chambers Bay. Two long links style courses that do not fit McNeill’s game. He is a guy who you can consistently count on to finish in the Top 35, but occasionally jump up as he did at The Memorial with a T13 and Crowne Plaza with a T5. Last year he finished 29th here and in 2012 47th, and 2011 37th. That is kind of what we expect for McNeill to produce this week, which would be fine considering he is the 70th highest priced player on Draftkings. He does not dominate any statistical category but does not show a massive deficiency in any either. With his low salary, he allows us much flexibility with the rest of our salary cap. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-54th
Strokes Gained Putting-51st
Par 3 Scoring- 41st
Par 4 Scoring- 49th
Par 5 Scoring- 70th
Greens in Regulation- 97th
Proximity to the hole- 69th
Birdie or Better %- 78th

 

Shawn Stefani- Again Shawn Stefani did what we said he was going to do and actually maybe a bit more. At his price on Draftkings last week, all we wanted was a made cut out of him, yet he was able to deliver a T39, which was more than enough to out-produce his price. We look for him to better a 68th place finish last year at the Deutsche Bank. Before The Barclays, he missed the cut at The PGA Championship, but that was on a different style course and much more difficult. Before that he had a T52 at Quicken Loans, T35 at John Deere, and T13 at Greenbrier. His one appearance at The Barclays was last year and he took 30th. He is a great play to make the cut and allow you to save some cap space in DFS. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-42nd
Strokes Gained Putting-77th
Par 3 Scoring- 60th
Par 4 Scoring- 30th
Par 5 Scoring- 20th
Greens in Regulation- 33rd
Proximity to the hole- 88th
Birdie or Better %- 20th

 

John Senden- Last year Senden played very well in the FedEx Cup playoffs including a 5th in The Deutsche Bank. Senden actually has a very good track record at TPC Boston with a 12th in 2012, 21st in 2011, 8th in 2010, and 11th in 2009. He has not had a great season, only making 14 cuts in 22 events, with 6 Top 25s, and three Top 10s. He made the cut last week at The Barclays and posted a final round 67, after a brutal third round 74, was able to finish T45. He is a speculative play, but for his pricetag will allow you to roster a stud. (GPP only)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green-124th
Strokes Gained Putting-122nd
Par 3 Scoring- 133rd
Par 4 Scoring- 150th
Par 5 Scoring- 59th
Greens in Regulation- 70th
Proximity to the hole- 183rd
Birdie or Better %- 96th

 

Best of luck to all of the FGI family this week, let’s keep it rolling!

-Fantasy Golf Insider

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