Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- CIMB Classic

Fantasy Golf Insider Staff
By Fantasy Golf Insider Staff October 26, 2015 13:17

Week 2 of the fall season is in the books and another great week for our recommendations and our members.  Thanks to all of you who emailed and tweeted your winnings, it makes us feel like all the hard work is worth it. Be sure to check out our webcast for some shout-outs. The recommendations really did well, with the majority of them making the cut and some outstanding efforts from Top Sleeper Pick Patton Kizzire finishing T2, Jason Bohn also T2, Patrick Rodgers T13, Nick Watney T11, Spencer Levin T25, Scott Piercy T25, and Chris Stroud T38.  So who let us down? Wil Wilcox, but as you will remember we did suggest to implement the intentional fade on Will the Thrill last week because we knew his ownership would be through the roof.  Well we did fade him on GPPs and went with him on cash, which hurt us in that department.  Charley Hoffman was the other major disappointment as he missed the cut and ripped apart some of our very solid GPP prospects.  Overall however a very successful week.  That being said, I was not successful in the King of the Hill Contest.  My roster consisted of Jason Bohn, Spencer Levin, Brendon Steele, Charles Howell III, Will Wilcox, and Hudson Swafford.  Our opponent had Bohn, Levin, and Wilcox as well, so you can guess how it turned out.  He actually had Russell Knox, Ryan Palmer, and Kevin Streelman as his other three.  After Swafford and Steele missed the cut, it was obvious it was over, so I did not even have a sweat after Friday.

This week our attention turns across the globe to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for the CIMB Classic.  In 2013 it gained official status on the PGA Tour and is co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour.  Also in 2013, the event moved to the West Course of Kuala Lumper Golf & Country Club, so the last two years is what we will be looking at on our tournament history page.  Also, important to plan around is the fact that there are only 78 players this week and there is not a cut.  This will allow us to be a bit more aggressive with our selections.  The field has many of the world’s top names including 12 of the Top 30.

Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club (West) is a par 72 and measures 6,985 yards long, one of the shortest courses the players will see all year long.  The Malaysian Open of the European Tour has been played on this course the last seven years.  There are only a handful of players that have played in that event that will be playing this week, most notably Danny Lee and Luke Donald, one of which we highlight in our recommendations below.

In examining the statistics that dictated success over the past two years we determined that strokes gained tee-to-green, greens in regulation, par 4 scoring, and strokes gained putting will be those we put the most weighting on.

One of the things that I think set us apart from anybody else in the industry is the amount of information that we share with our members about everything from game selection, roster composition, bankroll management, and other valuable strategies.  You will find if you have not already that consistently making money in fantasy golf is more than just picking the right golfers every week.  For one, it is impossible to pick the best six golfers every week and even being very good at picking players, does not ensure that you are going to be profitable.  Every once and a while I get an email from people who say they just want a lineup that is going to win every week.  I sadly inform them that unfortunately I do not have the ability to pick the best six guys or optimal lineup every single week.  If I could do that, I would be on a very secluded, tropical island right now sipping a drink with an umbrella in it.  FGI members know it is not that easy and that it takes hard work, research, discipline, and being observant just to name a few things to be successful and profitable over the long-term.  I truly believe that you folks are the most educated, disciplined and best players in all of fantasy golf and DFS.  How else could I get hundreds of emails from you saying how successful you have been for weeks, months, and some over a year now.  For that I congratulate you and encourage you to keep up the good work, but also to strive to get better and evolve as the industry grows and changes.   We feel like we are on the cutting edge of all DFS Golf information and are always thinking of and creating new and revolutionary ideas and strategies that will keep you ahead of the curve and maintain the edge that we have over the field.  I liken it to the poker industry.

For those of you who don’t know, both Zach and I used to play quite a bit of poker both online and live.  Every year we would make our voyage out to Las Vegas and play in the World Series of Poker.  We were not nearly close to being among the best in the world, but man did we study. I think we probably read every poker book published between us for a few years there. We were playing before Chris Moneymaker even broke on the scene.  The first books we read were Doyle Brunson’s Super-System and then Holdem Poker by Mason Malmuth and David Sklansky.  Those were like the Bible for Poker players back then,  but soon the strategy became outdated and obsolete.  When the boom came, a myriad of poker information and strategies developed, which changed the game.  For those who adapted and kept working hard, studying, and following those people who were successful, they were able to remain profitable.  For others, they fell by the wayside.  I have not played competitively in a while now, but am personally friends with a lot of the top players in the world and I am blown away when I hear them talk about the strategy and game theory used these days. FGI actually has a very successful player as a member, Glen Chorny, who has won millions of dollars playing poker. DFS is the same way and we are in the trenches with you playing in all games and finding different and innovative ways to stay atop the industry and continue to win.  We play in the biggest contests and are winning, but we also play in the same cash games you do and maintain strict bankroll management, which is how we continue to build our bankrolls.  If there is anything you ever want to share with us regarding strategy or ideas we are very open to discussing or hearing from you.   If you have proven ideas or strategies let us know and we might be able to work together.  Be sure to utilize our newest tool the ownership percentage prediction tool, which we use to predict ownership percentage of every player in a large field GPP. It will also allow you to include your prediction and combine it with ours. Last week we undershot on a few players like Jason Bohn, Kevin Na, and Emiliano Grillo, but most everybody else in the field we were within a couple of % of.  It is a super valuable tool, and one nobody else in the industry offers, so be sure to use it.

This week I wanted to talk a bit about cash games and specifically Head-to-Head (H2H) Games.  I have received a lot of questions about how to approach them, how many to play, how to select opponents, etc.  First, always make sure you are only using 15% of your overall bankroll on any given week.  Next, make sure you are playing at least 80% of that amount in cash games, whether it be in 50/50s or H2Hs.  If you choose to play H2H games, there are a few things to know that will help you.  1.  Select your opponents carefully.  Be observant to who is successful and who the experienced winning players are and avoid them.  Watch closely the top of the standings in the contests you are playing and it becomes apparent that some players are consistently successful.  Could you beat them, especially with the information we arm you with?  I have no doubt in my mind.  However, why try?  If you can identify less experienced and less successful players and matchup against them, giving you a larger edge, it only makes sense to do so.   Find those players that have not signed up for a lot of games and that you have not seen regularly or that you have identified as being weak.  Keep a journal and as you play individuals keep track of their screenames and your results.  If you keep beating the same people, FIND THEM. 2.  Play lower dollar buy-ins.  Typically lower dollar games do not contain the sharks for the most part. Even if your bankroll is larger, play a bunch of lower dollar buy-ins rather than a few larger dollar ones.  It comes down to the competition level 3.  Don’t be the first one to sign up for a contest.  This allows anybody to match up against you, including the sharks.  I have made it a practice to not match up against people that sign up first in lower dollar buy-ins.  My fear is that I will be going up against a FGI member that is working hard to be successful and not that that I would win (actually you probably would beat my ass), but I just won’t do it out of principal.  But that doesn’t mean other highly-skilled, experienced players won’t match up against you.  Actually there are several FOOLS in the industry that play high volume yet still pick off $1 opponents.  They either do not realize -or- don’t give a damn how terrible that is for the well-being of the industry.  That gives us even more motivation to provide you the information needed to kick ass.    I will be the first one signed up in all dollar levels and then if people want to match up against me, that is their choice.  4.  Use smart cash game strategy.  If you have read our articles or listened to us at all you can easily identify a good cash game play vs.  a GPP play and if you do not know the difference, you need to find out quickly.  Generally, the overriding cash game strategy is to get the most of your players through the cut as possible.  Typically that means a more conservative approach, selecting guys with a “high floor” as opposed to a “high ceiling”.  Two weeks ago in some of my cash games I faced opponents who had players on their rosters including Martin Piller, Geogff Ogilvy, and Robert Allenby, I kid you not, opponents of mine in $5 and $10 H2H cash games trotted those guys out.  If somebody says FGI members don’t have an edge they are incorrect.  You will not win 100% of your games, but most weeks you will win the more than you lose and over the long-term you will be profitable.  Take advantage of the people out there who are not nearly as educated and skilled as you are and grow your bankroll.

We are happy to announce that next week is the WGC HSBC event and FantasyAces has agreed to hold a Fantasy Golf Insider Freeroll and put up $500 in prize money!!!  Below are the steps that you will need to take to be eligible:

  1. Remain or Become an FGI Member
  2. Click through this link JOIN FANTASYACES , become a member and deposit $25 (or more). Be sure to use the promo code INSIDER for the outstanding 20% first time bonus (up to $250).  If you have already clicked through our link and made a deposited $25 in the past few months, let me know.
  3. Email me your FantasyAces and Fantasy Golf Insider username/screenname
  4. Then when the freeroll is posted you will be able to enter. That easy.
  5. Plus, we will send the winner of the freeroll a polo as the cherry on Top.

 

This will be an interesting week, so enjoy late night golf watching and be sure to get hopped up on a lot of candy on Halloween to stay up and watch the final round.

 

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, and more, become a premium member.

 

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We will still be using 2014-2015 stats since the sample size so far this season is still too small.

 

Top Stud Picks:

 

Kevin Na- His form is absolutely unreal right now with runner-up finishes in his first two fall events.  Plus he had a really strong season last year and he finished runner-up in this tournament last year.  Is there anything else that you want from a guy this week?  Low ownership, oh well sorry we can’t have it all.  He is going to be heavily owned, no doubt about that.  Still, it is hard to avoid Na this week.  Our only real concern is that he is a bit tired, and we have seen him wear down at some points.  He has even withdrawn before the start of tournaments if he has had exhausting tournaments prior.  If he plays, which we think he will, we like Na to continue his great play. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 28th

Greens in Regulation- 138th

Par 4 Scoring- 26th

Strokes Gained Putting-49th  

 

Patrick Reed- Virtually nobody is going to know that Reed took T3 in the UBS Hong Kong Open last week with all four rounds in the 60s.  Not having to travel nearly as far as others who are coming over this week, Reed is adjusted and ready to fire this week in Malaysia.  He has momentum coming in from the Presidents Cup and he will be able to score on this course.  We wish he had some tournament history to go off of, but his price and ownership are pretty inticing. (Mostly GPPs)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 41st

Greens in Regulation- 141st

Par 4 Scoring- 18th

Strokes Gained Putting- 19th

 

Ryan Moore- This is a tricky player this week.  I would guess that most everybody is going to know he has won this event both times it has been at this location.   He has playing some good golf since missing the cut at Deutsche Bank with a T28 at BMW, T10 at Frys.com, and T43 last week at Shriners.  It is hard to argue with his comfortability on this course and thus we like him in cash games and GPPs alike.  However his price of $9,900 on Draftkings is a bit high for our liking as we try and always build more balanced teams for our cash games.  For GPPs his ownership is going to be high, and as we recommended to do with Wilcox last week in GPPs, a strategic fade might be the best.  Although with a non-cut event the upside to that strategy is not as great.  Our best advice is to use him on one of your cash game teams and a couple of your GPPs and leave it at that. (Mostly cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 43rd

Greens in Regulation- 123rd 

Par 4 Scoring- 74th

Strokes Gained Putting-64th

 

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Anirban Lahiri- You might be asking, what they hell is Anirban Lahiri being priced at $9,800 for on Draftkings, Well in case you haven’t been follwing obscure Asian and Web.com Tour events like us sick bastards, maybe you haven’t seen his current form.  Have no fear that is why you pay us.  T7 at the UBS Hong Kong Open, T2 at the Venetian Macao Open, T16 at the Small Business Connection Championship, T6 at the Hotel Fitness Championship, and T5 at the PGA Championship.  Now most of these are not the FedEx Cup Playoffs when comparing talent of the field, but good golf is good golf. His high pricetag might actually work in our favor as it will dissuade those that might have known about his recent success.  If his current form isn’t enough to persuade you how about the fact that he won the Malaysian Open on this very same course in February (10th in 2014).  His ownership should not be real high because most people will not know much about him, but he looks like an excellent opportunity. (GPP and Cash Games, but mostly GPPs)

Stats did not qualify on PGA Tour for 2014-2015.

 

Justin Thomas- We like the young, long-ball hitting, scoring, talented players and one of our favorites is Justin Thomas.  He ended last season strong with a T16 at Barclays, T13 at BMW and started the season strong with a T3 at Frys.com.   Thomas did not play in this event last year.  I think Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, and Thomas are ideal plays this week because it is a non-cut event.  The only downside that they have is that they can have a blow-up round if that is Thursday or Friday, you are in trouble.  Having a guaranteed four rounds from them is huge and allows them to rack up points for four days  (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 17th

Greens in Regulation- 27th

Par 4 Scoring- 26th

Strokes Gained Putting-95th  

 

 

Daniel Berger- Surprise. Ever since his girlfriend supposedly quit traveling with him, Berger has been outstanding.  That includes a T12 at Deutsche Bank, 2nd at BMW, T12 at the Tour Championship, and T17 at Frys.com.  He is one of the young studs that we predict will start winning events before long along with Finau and Thomas.  He did not play in Kuala Lumpur last year.  On a roll like he is and the upside he possesses, he looks to be one of our better options this week. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 33rd 

Greens in Regulation- 30th

Par 4 Scoring- 50th

Strokes Gained Putting- 142nd

 

 

Tony Finau– Last week we saw the perfect example of what scoring means in DFS.  Finau finished T16 in the standings, but had 96.5 points, which put him in the top 10 scorers ( and would have been top 5 if so many others didn’t tie for 2nd place).  If you have been part of FGI, you know how that is the key variable we look at, because ultimately that is what dictates winning or losing.  Given Finau did have a double-eagle, which contributed to a lot of those points, that is the type of player he is, explosive.  In a non-cut event, he is gold. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 36th

Greens in Regulation- 57th

Par 4 Scoring- 26th

Strokes Gained Putting-109th  

 

 

Danny Lee- He looked solid at the Presidents cup and looked very strong at the Tour Championship (T2), Lee looks to build upon a great last season.  Last season we saw 13 Top 25s and eight Top 10s from Lee.  He played in this event last year and he finished 13th.  He has played in the Malaysian Open before on this course, where he missed the cut, but that was several years ago.  The fact that he missed the cut is not a positive, but the fact that he has quite a bit of experience on the course is. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 59th

Greens in Regulation- 111th

Par 4 Scoring- 26th

Strokes Gained Putting-23rd  

 

 

Daniel Summerhays– Talk about under the radar, nobody ever talks about him, yet look at his current form- T6 at Barclays, T9 Deutsche Bank, T41 at BMW, T32 at Frys.com, and T16 at Shriners.  Summerhays did not finish great in his only appearance here two years ago with a 53rd.  Still, we are seeing new things out of him now and expect him to outproduce his price, which continues to sink and is only $7,800 this week on Draftkings,

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 123rd 

Greens in Regulation- 113th

Par 4 Scoring- 18th

Strokes Gained Putting-3rd  

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Ryo Ishikawa-  Near the bottom of the pricing structure this week in DFS, Ishikawa presents nice possible upside.  He also presents some downside as well, which is why we like him for GPPs only.  His current form looks like this- T50 at Shriners, MC at Frys.com, T6 at Top Cup Tokai Classic, T52 Asia Pacific Open Mitsubishi Diamond Cup, 1st at ANA Open, and T66 at Barclays.  You can now see why we say his has a high ceiling, low floor.  He took 26th here last year in this same event.  He is a great ball striker with a good tee-to-green game, it is usually his putting that sets him back.  Much like others, if he can just break even with strokes gained putting, he should have a great finish. (GPP only)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 100th

Greens in Regulation- 92nd

Par 4 Scoring- 95th

Strokes Gained Putting-133rd  

 

 

Kyle Reifers- At the Frys.com Reifers showed the outstanding talent this young guy possesses (T6).  At the Shriners, Refiers showed us just that he was still a young guy (MC).  We are going to have ups and downs with him, which is why we want to keep him rationed in our GPPs, but this week in a difficult field and not a ton of low priced guys that have the potential to finish high, he is one of them.  But we have to take the good with the bad.  He does not have any appearances here, but he probably got a couple extra practice rounds in since he left Vegas two days early.(GPP only)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 97th

Greens in Regulation- 72nd

Par 4 Scoring- 74th

Strokes Gained Putting-98th  

 

 

Spencer Levin- We recommended Levin as a sleeper last week for the Shriners and it paid off as he delivered a T25.  That was on top of a T48 at Frys.com two weeks ago.  He seems to be trending well and this week his price is very cheap.  He is a great compliment to a stars and scrubs type roster this week. (GPP and Cash Games)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 93rd 

Greens in Regulation- 45th

Par 4 Scoring- 26th

Strokes Gained Putting-124th  

 

Greg Owen- If you have read my article Do Statistics Really Matter in Fantasy Golf, you know just how vital the statistic Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is in determining success.  Saying that, I am going to list the top few players ranked in that category who have played in both events thus far this season.  Kevin Na, Patrick Rodgers, Jason Bohn, Greg Owen, wait what? Did you say Greg Owen?  He is actually ranked 4th in the category and if not for Russell Knoxesque putting and a -1.179 strokes lost to the field putting, he would have finished better than T74 (MDF) and T43 in the first two events this year.  Since tee-to-green is so important we are going to give Owen a sleeper nod this week especially since there is not a cut.  He does have the ability to finish high as he did last year a couple times (T6 at Greenbrier and 2nd at FedEx St Jude).  If he can stop the bleeding with his putter he can put together a decent finish this week and is worth a shot in GPPs. (GPP only)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 45th

Greens in Regulation- 20th

Par 4 Scoring- 26th  

Strokes Gained Putting-181st

 

As always best of luck, let’s keep the winning going, and always be sure to keep us updated so we can send good Karma your way!

 

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Fantasy Golf Insider Staff
By Fantasy Golf Insider Staff October 26, 2015 13:17

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