Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- CIMB Classic

OVERVIEW
First thing’s first, this week there’s no cut so make sure you’re choosing your contests wisely. Last week’s picks did pretty well overall even with all of the weather delays and whatnot so I am happy about that and I hope you all did well using them. One thing I will say is that if you normally play one or two lineups and there’s weather concerns before the tournament, I wouldn’t suggest swapping out all of your players to stack a flight of tee times, but I would recommend making another lineup using that strategy. Because of the weather concerns I got off of some strong plays that were teeing off in the afternoon which ended up biting me in the end, and had I stuck to my original lineup and hedged with an AM stack I would’ve profited a small amount (which is better than losing my shirt). Congrats to Brendan “Blue” Steele after capturing his first win since 2011, he was my gut call of the week and came through huge for us. The key thing I’ll be honing in on this week will be how guys played last week + course history at this course. There’s some kind of correlation between the results of the first two events of the swing season, so don’t overlook some of the guys who had success last week and pop in your models this week (even if they don’t normally pop up – I’m looking at you Brendon DeJonge).

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club – West Course
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 6,951 yards
• Greens: Seashore Paspalum
o Location: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
o Expected scoring: Last year was the lowest score in the history of the event and I would imagine with the advancements in golf technology we’ll see much of the same again this week. The course is short by PGA standards, so I’m assuming we’ll see another birdie barrage and the winning score ends up around -25.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Justin Thomas -26 over Adam Scott [-25]
• 2014: Ryan Moore -17 over Sergio Garcia, Kevin Na, Gary Woodland [-14]
• 2013: Ryan Moore -14 in a playoff over Gary Woodland
• 2012: Nick Watney -22 over Robert Garrigus & Bo Van Pelt [-21]
• 2011: Bo Van Pelt -23 over Jeff Overton [-22]
• 2010: Ben Crane -18 over Brian Davis [-17]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT, SG:APP, SG:T2G, Birdie or Better %, SG:P, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – Ball Striking, Scrambling, SG:ARG

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STARS:

Paul Casey (DK $11,600)
• Course History: 24th – 37th
• Form: 3rd – 4th – 2nd – 2nd – 31st
• Stats: 21st – SG:OTT, 11th – SG:APP, 55th – SG:ARG, 75th – SG:P, 7th – SG:T2G, 54th – DD, 36th – DA, 2nd – GIR, 36th – Scrambling, 152nd – P3 BoB, 61st – P4 BoB, 34th – P5 BoB
• Other – Another week where Casey is the favorite… What a world we live in! Look, there’s no denying he’s rolling right now and with the correlation between the Safeway & this tournament, one could make a strong argument for Casey this week; which is exactly why he’s getting a mention here. I’ll be playing him in at least one lineup as a hedge on life, but it makes me nauseous. I assume most of the ownership will head to Reed or Matsuyama so Casey makes for an excellent GPP play.

Patrick Reed (DK $11,200)
• Course History: 10th – 26th – 40th
• Form: 24th – 13th – 5th – WIN – 22nd
• Stats: 65th – SG:OTT, 84th – SG:APP, 8th – SG:ARG, 40th – SG:P, 30th – SG:T2G, 41st – DD, 21st – Birdie Avg, 116th – GIR, 8th – Scrambling, 18th – Birdie or Better
• Other – As mentioned above, I think everyone will gravitate to Reed here since he’s not the favorite, but everyone saw what he did at the Ryder Cup. We know Reed’s record when priced above $9k (its not good when it comes to paying off his salary), but he does possess length off the tee, scrambling ability and a good putter. Personally I’ll be fading him in GPP’s, but I think he’s fine for cash if you want to start in the $11k range.

Adam Scott (DK $10,900)
• Course History: 2nd
• Form: 8th – 4th – 4th – 4th
• Stats: 18th – SG:OTT, 1st – SG:APP, 81st – SG:ARG, 129th – SG:P, 1st – SG:T2G, 13th – DD, 12th – Birdie Avg, 3rd – GIR, 74th – Scrambling, 9th – Birdie or Better
• Other – Scott might be a bargain compared to Casey this week. Both have similar driving & ball striking skills and when Scott’s putter gets warm he’s one of the best in the world; the issue is that putter. Its been a month since he last teed it up so the layoff is a concern, but he came into this event in the same situation last year after one of the worst putting years of his life and shocked the DFS world. I think it’d be less than optimal to fade the most handsome man playing professional golf on the PGA Tour this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Ryan Moore (DK $10,600) not much to say here as he’s posted back to back wins in 2013 & ’14 followed by a 10th place finish here last year. He’s just extremely comfortable here and he’s said so himself during interviews with the press. He’s basically a chalk lock for cash so the play would be to fade him in GPPs this week and pray for dear life. Justin Thomas (DK $10,400) seems like he’s in a great situation to repeat as defending champ this week. If not for two triple bogeys on Thursday he wins the Safeway (in my opinion) and becomes the most expensive player in the field this week. I was going to save him for the GPP section of this article, but he’s in play for cash as well this week.

VALUE PLAYS:

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $9,200)
• Tournament History: MC – MC – 22nd – 3rd – 4th
• Form: 31st – 12th – 5th – 5th
• Stats: N/A – 290.8 – DD, 69.93% – GIR, 3.44 – Birdie Avg, 57.61% – Scrambling, 20.26% – Birdie or Better
• Other – If you’ve read any of my preview articles, you know I have an affinity for RCB. He’s great for DFS because of his birdie making ability, a phenomenal ball striker and a good putter (which is what leads to the birdies). The price is a value this week because of said birdie making ability, but if you’re trying to get a couple guys in your lineup at 10k or higher you’ll have to get your exposure to him in other lineups. He makes for a strong anchor of a GPP lineup where you grab three 9k players and fill in the rest.

Scott Piercy (DK $8,900)
• Course History: 7th
• Form: 3rd – 24th – 53rd – 22nd
• Stats: 27th – SG:OTT, 110th – SG:APP, 104th – SG:ARG, 156th – SG:P, 57th – SG:T2G, 37th – DD, 52nd – GIR, 90th – Birdie Avg, 117th – Scrambling, 70th – Birdie or Better
• Other – Last year Kevin Na started with a couple runner up finishes only to fade away when taking what seemed like a lot of time off during the middle of the year and I think we can get Piercy in that same situation this week. Piercy played really well for three days last week, but couldn’t roll the rock when the pressure was on, ultimately losing his grip on the lead and sliding back into a tie for 3rd. The most impressive part of his week wasn’t the 62 he fired on Thursday, but the 67 on Friday as it’s much more difficult to shoot under par after firing a course record. I think he puts the weekend out of his mind this week and contends again.

Russell Knox (DK $8,200)
• Tournament History: 21st
• Form: 23rd – 17th – 15th – 60th
• Stats: 73rd – SG:OTT, 44th – SG:APP, 72nd – SG:ARG, 107th – SG:P, 43rd – SG:T2G, 137th – DD, 9th – GIR, 58th – Birdie Avg, 28th – Scrambling, 68th – Birdie or Better
• Other – Knox was snubbed for the Ryder Cup and this is the first time we’ll see him after the pummeling Team Europe took during the Cup, where he undoubtedly would’ve helped their team more than guys like Kaymer & Westwood. Knox’s ball striking is what propelled him to two wins last year on the PGA Tour and will continue to put him in contention in even the strongest of fields (IE: TOUR Championship). There’s a lot to like about Knox this week and it starts with that price – don’t fade him.

ALSO CONSIDER – Kevin Chappell (DK $9,100) has to be mentioned in a field where ball striking is a targeted statistic. Chappell finished the 2016 PGA Tour season with eight Top 10’s including four 2nd place finishes. He was so close to winning several events last season and had it not been for Jason Day (twice) and his inability to hold a Sunday lead (once) he probably would’ve been in the conversation for Player of the Year; DJ obviously would’ve still won, but Chappie would’ve been in the mix. He’s got loads of talent and his time is coming this year, probably sometime in the next week or two. I liked what I saw out of Tony Finau (DK $8,100) last week enough to suggest him this week. He’s good for birdies and scores well on Par 5’s so this sets up as good as any situation for him to hit value again this week. Alex Cejka (DK $7,400) is a mystery as a DFS play every week. On weeks where he lines up as a solid play he’ll play one hole (usually one of the last three) over par and kill his chances at making the cut and when he doesn’t line up as a good play, he’ll finish in the Top 10. This week he lines up as a good play; I’m not quite sure how I feel about it because the price is nice.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Smylie Kaufman (DK $6,900)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: MC – 56th – 24th – MC
• Stats: 82nd – SG:OTT, 107th – SG:APP, 84th – SG:ARG, 71st – SG:P, 84th – SG:T2G, 30th – DD, 74th – GIR, 26th – Birdie Avg, 159th – Scrambling, 25th – Birdie or Better
• Other – Smylie got the wrong end of the draw last week and never really showed up which was a bit discouraging for those that played him. This week, with no cut, I fully expect him to bounce back and hopefully he can do so at a lower ownership for both cash & GPP’s. He showed us during the playoffs he’s back to playing good golf, so I’m assuming last week was the outlier due to the weather.

Hudson Swafford (DK $6,500)
• Course History: 17th – 53rd
• Form: 62nd – 56th – 15th – 41st
• Stats: 31st – SG:OTT, 56th – SG:APP, 183rd – SG:ARG, 52nd – SG:P, 96th – SG:T2G, 7th – DD, 22nd – GIR, 26th – Birdie Avg, 158th – Scrambling, 19th – Birdie or Better
• Other – Swafford was one of my plays that I got away from early Thursday morning because of the tee time split concerns last week. Naturally he made the cut and faded on the weekend, but having another player to gain points during those two days is what was the difference in min cashing GPP’s or not cashing at all. I won’t be making the mistake again with him this week as he’s a strong performer in most of the categories we’re targeting this week – specifically SG:OTT (31st), SG:APP (56th), Driving Distance (7th), Greens in Regulation (22nd) and birdie or better percentage (19th).

Adam Hadwin (DK $6,300)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: MC – 46th – 64th – 33rd
• Stats: 67th – SG:OTT, 122nd – SG:APP, 132nd – SG:ARG, 12th – SG:P, 110th – SG:T2G, 92nd – DD, 83rd – GIR, 17th – Birdie Avg, 97th – Scrambling, 22nd – Birdie or Better
• Other – Hadwin’s week was cut short as he too fell victim to the weather delays in Napa. His strength is putting, and if he can’t get that going he’s in for a long day on the course and a not so long stay at the local Ramada Inn. This week there’s no cut, so he’ll have plenty of time to get the flat stick working and he’s priced near Chez Reavie who actually made the cut last week, which makes him a very good GPP pivot to what should be a reduced ownership percentage.

ALSO CONSIDER – Ernie Els (DK $6,900) celebrated his birthday today, so he’s got the birthday mojo heading into a no cut event. I know that’s not much for analysis, but he’s still a solid golf ball whacker guy and outside of his Masters putting woes did pretty well all season for a guy that should take his talents to the Champions Tour. Danny Lee (DK $6,700) seems to be in a similar spot as last week where his game didn’t really match up for success, but he did make the cut and helped those that rostered him. I’m very fond of Lee’s success on these types of greens specifically and he should be in consideration for both cash & GPP’s at this price. Finally we have the chain smoking Spencer Levin (DK $6,400). I didn’t want to look at him this week at all, but it feels like one of those instances where he was a good play last week, made you want to take up smoking, missed the cut and will play well on a course that suits his game so I’m going back to the ashtray this week; mainly because of the price and his 17th place finish last year. If I had to rank all of the players in this “tier” in order I’d go Lee, Swafford, Smylie, Hadwin, Levin, Els; for what it’s worth.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Kevin Na (DK $9,900)
• Course History: 3rd – 2nd
• Form: 7th – 29th – 20th – MC
• Stats: 155th – SG:OTT, 2nd – SG:APP, 69th – SG:ARG, 79th – SG:P, 45th – SG:T2G, 170th – DD, 64th – GIR, 32nd – Birdie Avg, 89th – Scrambling, 30th – Birdie or Better
• Other – Na slots in as a GPP play this week mainly because of his price and overall ability in “middle of the road” strength fields. Some may say this is a weak field event, but when you consider the guys he has to beat in order to win, it becomes more or less an average field without the star power of the “Big 10”. Either way, Na looks to keep things going this week where he’s finished inside the Top 3 in both of his last two tries which saw similar talent as we’ll see this week. Oh, and he still has to cash in on his nappy factor from his last kid that was born during the playoffs.

Gary Woodland (DK $9,600)
• Course History: 56th – 2nd – 2nd
• Form: 10th – 24th – 15th – 4th
• Stats: 12th – SG:OTT, 30th – SG:APP, 68th – SG:ARG, 122nd – SG:P, 12th – SG:T2G, 10th – DD, 23rd – GIR, 52nd – Birdie Avg, 59th – Scrambling, 49th – Birdie or Better
• Other – Woodland’s course history is fairly close to Ryan Moore’s with the exception of any wins, and instead of finishing in the Top 10 in his third appearance, he basically just took a vacation in Malaysia and played golf for four days. I think that all changes this week as he finished the year on a high note and as well as close to winning several times. He’s the kind of player you want in GPP’s with the birdies over bogeys ratio, but you can’t stomach him in cash. His wheelhouse as far as meeting value at this price is usually when he’s priced around the $7-$9k range, so I’d expect people to look for a cheaper value play than Woodland this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,300) can’t be in a field where he’s not mentioned in this article. We’ve highlighted ball strikers throughout the entire preview so naturally the best ball striker on Tour should be listed. We really need his putter to show up this week, just like last year where he finished 5th. If he can stay on the plus side of strokes gained: putting he’s taking this thing down. Byeong-Hun An (DK $9,400) is no stranger to good ball striking, and like Matsuyama his putter holds him back. Rinse and repeat the analysis for Mats too, if he’s positive strokes gained: putting his name will be on the first page of the leaderboard. Just play Si Woo Kim (DK $7,900) this week. Ball striker? Yes. Good putter? Yes. Good form? Yes. Low ownership? YES!!!!!! You guys know how much I loved playing this dude during the playoffs and we need to pick up where he left off during the TOUR Championship. DFS players don’t play him for whatever reason, but you should as he was in the Rookie of the Year discussion with Grillo.

Gut feeling this week is that Justin Thomas connects and successfully defends his title this week.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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