Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- BMW South African Open (European Package)

OVERVIEW

First off, Rory is a 3.5/1 favorite this week and the 2^nd “worst” odds fall to either Brandon Stone at 15/1 or Andy Sullivan at 15/1 depending on the book you’re at. Rory has never played here, but to be that big of a favorite you know the field is weak. Now, what does that mean for DraftKings purposes? Nothing really, because we’re trying to get six players through the cut and if we can get all six that finish in the top 10 without rostering a very high priced Rory McIlroy, it will pay huge dividends come Sunday morning. The event is hosted by Ernie Els (a South African golfer) and includes about three names you may recognize and a bunch of Sunshine Tour players (South African Tour). Last year South African Brandon Stone, beat fellow South African Christiaan Bezuidenhout (legit had never heard of him prior to this event last year) by two strokes. I don’t know about you, but it’ll be difficult for me to get away from the “home narrative” this week as South Africans have won this event six of the last ten years; Ernie has won this event 5 times over his career…. South Africaaaaaaaaaa! (I needed to throw one more reference in there for good measure).

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Glendower GC
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,594
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: City of Ekurhuleni, Gautend, South Africa
• Expected scoring: The course is relatively flat and tree lined so winds shouldn’t be a huge concern. Unfortunately there is some possible rain in the forecast, so keep an eye on that as the week progresses. The course is long and tight, and the rough is pretty thick. The field is fairly absent of bombers, so I think we’ll see lower scores than usual this week; expected winner of -14.   
• Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2016: Brandon Stone -14 over Christiaan Bezuidenhout [-12]
• 2015: Andy Sullivan -11 in a playoff over Charl Schwartzel
• 2013: Morten Orum Madsen -19 over Jbe’ Kruger & Hennie Otto [-17]
• 2012: Henrik Stenson -17 over George Coetzee [-14]
• 2011: Hennie Otto -14 over Bernd Wiesberger [-13]
• 2010: Ernie Els -25 over Retief Goosen [-24]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Greens In Regulation, Driving Accuracy
• Important – Course History, Current Form, Driving Distance

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STARS:

Rory McIlroy (DK $13,500)

• Course History: No course history
• Form: 9^th – 4^th – Win
• Stats: 70.80 – Scoring Avg, 54.08% – DA, 281.29 yards – DD, 65.87% – GIR
• Other – What’s there to say about this guy that hasn’t been said or already known? I think in cash games you could make an argument to playing him as he’s almost even money to win and it’s comforting knowing you’ve secured at least 1/6 through the cut, but at the same time, golf is a fickle sport and even Rory will miss cuts from time to time. I don’t really know what to do with him yet, so maybe a hedge on cash games is in order if you fade him in GPP’s.  

Andy Sullivan (DK $10,500)

• Course History: MC – Win – 12^th  
• Form: 40^th – 3^rd – 25^th – 2^nd
• Stats: 69.56 – Scoring Avg, 63.01% – DA, 294.13 yards – DD, 77.78% GIR
• Other – Sully is a solid striker of the ball who doesn’t make too many errors during a round of golf. He’s not long off the tee, but keeps it in the fairway for the most part which is what’s catching my eye with him this week. It’s a tough field so you’re going to have to make a determination early on if you’re paying up for one of these guys, and if so which one. I think Andy has a higher floor than Stone based on his pedigree, so for that reason I’m leaning him over Stone this week.

Brandon Stone (DK $10,200)

• Course History: Win – MC – 67^th
• Form: Win – 2^nd – 59^th – 69^th – 52^nd – MC
• Stats: 70.58 – Scoring Avg, 58.97% – DA, 286.11 yards – DD, 75.96% – GIR
• Other – Stone comes in as defending champion as well as winning in his last event (another “South African” event). It might be safe to assume he’s peaked as his form leading into the final two weeks of 2016 was not good, and his course history here isn’t the greatest outside of the win (his form coming in last year was an 18^th place finish following a Win and a 6^th place finish). Stone doesn’t get me too excited as a player, so I’ll probably be fading him for Sullivan this week, but wouldn’t be mad if you played him in hopes of catching a repeat performance (Sullivan & Merrick Bremner [won the “BMG Classic”] both missed the cut in their title defense appearance).

ALSO CONSIDER – The South Africans Thomas Aiken (DK $9,600) and Jaco Van Zyl (DK $9,000) deserve some consideration this week and not just because of their nationality. Both possess strong ball striking skills as well as being decent putters. I don’t have much of a preference between either of them, outside of the fact that Aiken usually finds his way into my lineups more often than not so I’ll probably have more ownership on him whether it’s a conscious decision or not.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

 Richard Bland (DK $8,700)

• Tournament History: No course history
• Form: 54^th – 20^th – 17^th – 30^th
• Stats: 71.00 – Scoring Avg, 69.05% DA, 296.17 yards – DD, 77.78% GIR
• Other – He’s back! Lock him in and move on. Half kidding, but that’s how I’m treating him this week. He’s been the most consistent Euro Tour player in DFS since this thing started and I owe it to myself to be on him when he finally notches his first win.

Dylan Frittelli (DK $7,700)

• Tournament History: No course history
• Form: 25^th – 8^th – 36^th – 42^nd – 6^th – 6^th
• Stats: 71.55 – Scoring Avg, 65.93% – DA, 291.17 yards – DD, 68.38% – GIR
• Other – Frittelli made splashes at the end of 2016 prior to missing the cut in his final event, but I’m going back to the well here due to his driving accuracy, length off the tee and ability to hit greens in regulation. Bland, Frittelli and Smith will be core plays for me this week.

Jordan Smith (DK $7,300)

• Course History: No course history
• Form: 36^th – MC – 17^th – Win – MC – 68^th
• Stats: 71.17 – Scoring Avg, 62.86% – DA, 304.60 yards – DD, 67.78% – GIR
• Other – The 24 year old Brit has quite the statistical breakdown for a rookie and I’m more than happy to let him join the ranks of “favorite players to roster for Euro DFS”. Finishing 36^th after missing the cut showed me what I needed (as I faded him coming off the missed cut) and unfortunately he didn’t qualify to continue on during the race to Dubai. Now we get him fresh off some time away from golf and ready to kick off his sophomore season. Keep an eye on this kid all year.

ALSO CONSIDER – Christiaan Bezuidenhout (DK $8,100) clearly has a knack for this course having finished 2^nd here last year and won the BMG Classic the year before. Bezuidenhout is a young bomber who hits almost 70% of the greens he sees and 60%+ fairways, so it’s only a matter of time before we hear more about him on the Euro Tour. Retief Goosen (DK $8,200) is probably the chalk play here this week and for good reason. He’s 2/2 in cuts made here with a best finish of 4^th last year, from the area and is a popular name. I’d definitely fade him in tournaments as I expect ownership to reach the upper 40%, and you never want an elder at that ownership level. Pep Angles (DK $7,300) had a good showing in Hong Kong (T14) and looks to keep the momentum going again this week. The youngster is really long off the tee (319 yards) and hits a ton of greens in regulation as well.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 Jbe’ Kruger (DK $7,600)

• Tournament History: 45^th – 61^st – 2,8
• Form: 10^th – 32^nd – 10^th – 10^th
• Stats: 71.46 – Scoring Avg, 55.59% – DA, 293.26 yards – DD, 70.52% – GIR
• Other – Kruger paid off immensely last time out and even though we can’t expect another Top 10 finish, we have to like what we’re getting out of the South African again this week. The ball striking stats are there to support the play and he’s shown the upside we can expect so now he needs to put it all together for another run.

David Drysdale (DK $7,100)

• Tournament History: 27^th – 11^th – 59^th
• Form: 57^th – 11^th – 49^th – 13^th – 44^th
• Stats: 71.26 – Scoring Avg, 69.57% – DA, 280.48 yards – DD, 74.43% – GIR
• Other – Drysdale made the cut and did nothing after that as expected last time out, so we’re going back again this week. I’m not expecting the world, and neither should you. All I’m hoping for is a made cut, and maybe a minimum finishing position bonus as his upside. The course calls for accuracy so Drysdale makes a fine play in that regard.

ALSO CONSIDER – Neil Schietekat (DK $7,000) is the last of the South Africans I’ll mention (until we get to the GPP plays), he’s only missed two cuts in ten tries and hasn’t missed a cut in his last three events. I wouldn’t lean too heavily on him this week, but if you’re looking to stack some guys at the top and need the salary relief, this is your guy. Former champion, Hennie Otto (DK $7,000), has done well as of late (4^th – 35^th) and has the course history (45^th – 13^th – 2,2) to boot, so I’ll definitely have some exposure there this week. Paul Maddy (DK $6,600) has been on quite a tear of late finishing 11^th, 13^th, Win, 6^th, 39^th in his last five outings. The 35 year old is long off the tee and hits 75% of greens in regulation, so if he can figure out the putter this week, we could be sitting on GPP gold here.

 

GPP PLAYS  :

Dean Burmester (DK $8,300)

• Course History: 10^th – 66^th – 28^th – MC, 13^th – 13^th – MC – MC
• Form: 17^th – 8^th – 39^th – 35^th
• Stats: 70.98 – Scoring Avg, 57.06% – DA, 286.20 yards – DD, 69.32% – GIR
• Other – Burmester is one of those guys that might not have been looking forward to some time off as his game was starting to take form towards the end of the year. Starting up the new season in his homeland should be a good thing this week as long as he keeps the ball out of the trees off the tee.

Romain Langasque (DK $8,000)

• Course History: No course history
• Form: 10^th – 44^th – 6^th – 32^nd – 10^th
• Stats: 70.50 – Scoring Avg, 64.29% – DA, 309 yards – DD, 68.06% – GIR
• Other – The Frenchman played well at the Australian PGA Championship (where he finished 10^th) after spending most of last season racking up Top 10’s on the Challenge Tour. Langasque is one of my picks this year to really make a move on the Euro Tour where he’s already had four quality events. With no course history and a relatively high price (for an unknown) he’s sure to go overlooked this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Peter Uihlein (DK $7,800) is one of my favorite up and coming talents on the European Tour and his price per results since his injury isn’t justified, but he presents a ton of upside and could possibly steal this event from Rory or Sully if he’s finally 100%. It would give him a ton of confidence for the remainder of the year knowing that he took down the mighty leprechaun one weekend in January. Erik Van Rooyen (DK $6,900) is a perfect four for four at this event with two Top 20’s and finished 32^nd after missing his first cut in his last five events so it looks like he could be starting a new cuts made streak. Tjaart Van Der Walt (DK $6,800) has made three of four cuts here, and has made his last four cuts on Tour so he’s got the form and the course history that we like and the price is right too! Jean Hugo (DK $6,400) has a slew of cuts made here (only missed one cut, last year) and has four Top 10’s at this event as well as two Top 10’s in his last five starts, so like the last few players, he’s got what we’re looking for as far as form & history.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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