Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview – BMW PGA Championship (European Package)

OVERVIEW

This week is the one year anniversary of the birth of Euro DFS for DraftKings, Happy Birthday – we’re sorry you have daddy issues because you’re constantly neglected! The fairways are tight and the greens are small, so accuracy will be at a premium this week. Of course, there are a few bombers we’ll be targeting because length off the tee can make up for a ton of accuracy, but we’ll need to be cautious with those plays and not overload our lineups with too many sprayers of the tee ball. The greens were re-seeded last year so it should be interesting to see how well they’ve taken to the new seed. Typically, a year from seeding is plenty of time for them to grow in, but we don’t know how much play has been limited during that time. Aside from the green surface being re-seeded, the greens themselves on the 8^th, 11^th, 14^th & 16^th were completely reshaped and the 3^rd, 4^th, 5^th , 12^th and 15^th greens were partially rebuilt AND all of the bunkers on the course were redone as well as 29 of them being completely removed. This course is far different than in year’s past, but of course all of the players are ranting and raving about the changes (weird, right? I highly doubt they all love all of the changes, but whatever). 

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Wentworth Club
• Par: 73
• Yardage: 7,281
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Virginia Water, Surrey, England
• Past Champions:
• 2016: Chris Wood -9 over Rikard Karlberg [-8]
• 2015: Byeong-Hun An -21 over Thongchai Jaidee & Miguel Angel Jimenez [-15]
• 2014: Rory McIlroy -14 over Shane Lowry [-13]
• 2013: Matteo Manassero -10 in a playoff over Simon Khan & Marc Warren
• 2012: Luke Donald -15 over Paul Lawrie & Justin Rose [-11]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Greens in Regulation, Driving Accuracy, Ball Striking, Scrambling
• Important – Driving Distance, Putting Average

THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS

STARS

Henrik Stenson (DK $11,500)

• Form: 16^th – MC – MC – MC – MC
• History: 7^th
• Stats: 86^th – DD, 89^th – Putting, 11^th – Stroke Average, 5^th – GIR, 5^th – DA
• Other – Iceman makes this his 13^th trip to Wentworth this year, and it hasn’t been pretty thus far. I assume the majority of players will jump on Rose as the favorite, but I’m rolling with Henrik after his bounce-back of sorts at The Players. I think he’d want to put up a bit more form before heading to next week’s Nordea Masters in his homeland.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $9,700)     

• Form: 41^st – MC – 29^th – MC – 17^th
• History: 7^th – 46^th – 38^th
• Stats: 86^th – DD, 98^th – DA, 76^th – Putting, 30^th – Stroke Average, 10^th – GIR
• Other – Hatton’s strength lies in his ball striking and ability to get hot on the greens. I love the price here, but expect that should be a similar sentiment within the DFS community in all formats especially after finishing 7^th last year. He seems primed for a breakout of his own this year in a strong field, and this could be his week.  

ALSO CONSIDER

Francesco Molinari (DK $10,400): Molinari has been on a pretty good run in the states the past month or so (T6 at The Players, T24 at WF, T22 at RBC, T33 at the Masters, 20^th in Mexico) and now he comes to another ball striking course that should suit his game to a tee. Last year’s 55^th place finish and his price should keep most people off of him in all formats, so feel free to get some shares this week.

Byeong-Hun An (DK $9,400): An broke out of the unknowns with his win here in 2015 and even though he hasn’t been able to connect on the win in the states, he’s played well on ball striker courses this year (specifically) and comes in with good form after the Byron Nelson. It seems like a good opportunity to buy this week considering form and history. 

VALUE PLAYS

Branden Grace (DK $9,300)

• Form: 6^th – 24^th – 22^nd – 33^rd – WD
• History: 11^th – 61^st – 24^th – 5^th
• Stats: 42^nd – DD, 177^th – DA, 22^nd – Putting average, 66^th – GIR, 55^th – Stroke Average
• Other – Grace, like Hatton, is the type of guy we should be targeting this week. He’s a strong ball striker, who’s typically good with his putter, and based on previous winners here, he’ll just need to have a good week keeping the ball in play to find success. I like Grace a lot as a GPP pivot off Hatton or with him in a balanced lineup this week. 

Martin Kaymer (DK $9,100)  

• Form: 69^th – 32^nd – 16^th – 48^th – 23^rd
• History: 7^th – 18^th – 12^th – 50^th – 15^th – 31^st
• Stats: 144^th – DD, 30^th – DA, 21^st – GIR, 115^th – Putting Average, 29^th – Stroke Average
• Other – Kaymer fits the mold, as far as previous winners go, perfectly. He keeps the ball in the short grass off the tee, hits a ton of greens in regulation, and is a warm putter away from seeing his name at the top of the leaderboard. He makes for a great cash play with his cut making streak still intact, as well as his above average play all year.

 ALSO CONSIDER

Shane Lowry (DK $8,000): Lowry’s had some excellent play here in the past (T10 last year, T2 in 2014), but he hasn’t been able to put together solid rounds for consecutive days on the PGA Tour. Maybe a change in scenery will do him good as well as the past week off. Either way, I’d limit my exposure to him in GPP’s this week and hope his form returns.

Danny Willett (DK $7,200): Willett’s another ball striker with a premium on accuracy off the tee and his comfort on this course should be at the highest level (T3 last year). The only concern I have with rostering him this week is if his WD at The Players was due to an injury or not. If we don’t hear anything prior to lock, I’m fine with rostering him in GPP’s in the upwards of 20%, because I think he comes out firing this week.

 

DEEP DIVERS

Andy Sullivan (DK $7,000)

• Form: 48^th – 15^th – 20^th – MC – 28^th
• History: 22^nd – 17^th – 26^th – MC – 50^th
• Stats: 105^th – DD, 115^th – DA, 151^st – GIR, 79^th – Putting Average, 171^st – Stroke Average
• Other – Andy is a tricky one to figure out, but if there’s a course that he’d pop up on, it’s Wentworth. His lack of distance off the tee puts an emphasis on his accuracy as well as his inability to hit greens in regulation putting pressure on his putter. That all being said, if he has a strong ball striking week, he’ll be in contention and he seems to show up in strong fields where scoring isn’t in bunches.

David Lipsky (DK $6,900)

• Form: 24^th – 5^th – 63^rd – 2^nd – 42^nd
• History: 55^th – 35^th
• Stats: 105^th – DD, 115^th – DA, 151^st – GIR, 79^th – Putting Average, 171^st – Stroke Average
• Other – Lipsky comes in at a nice discount this week due to the strength of the field at the top and should be considered in all formats. He’s long enough off the tee, but his strengths are in accuracy and ball striking (this is a point I’m going to have often this week). I don’t think you could find a reason to talk me off him in any format at this price, so don’t try.

ALSO CONSIDER

Jordan L. Smith (DK $6,700): We’ve been riding him all year, so why stop now? Smith has only missed two cuts and as of the last two weeks looks a bit more human than how he looked earlier in the year, but I don’t think I’m going to let that get to me. He’s long off the tee and strong with the rest of the clubs in his bag, and this price is just bonkers to me. LOAD UP!

James Morrison (DK $6,600): We’ve picked our spots this year with Morrison, and I feel like this is a good week to get back on board. He comes in $4,300 CHEAPER THAN LAST WEEK, and if he churns out another performance like he has the past five tournaments, he crushes value. Don’t overthink this one here.

GPP PLAYS   

Alex Noren (DK $9,800): T6 in 2008, T8 in 2015 are his best finishes here, but his form coming in seems much better than in year’s past (T2 thru 54 at WF Championship, T10 finisher at The Players) and it was about this time last year that Noren’s game started clicking. This is one of those plays that could pay off being the first one on the bandwagon, setting MME exposure to 10-15% this week, if he flashes, we’re going back for more next week.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,200) & Thomas Pieters (DK $8,900): Fleetwood & Pieters are the two bombing fliers I’m taking this week, primarily because their form is elite, they’re both striking the ball as good as it can be as long as your name isn’t Dustin Johnson and when both get hot, they get really hot. If I’m making 10 lineups, I’m doing 2 with Fleetwood, 2 with Pieters, and 2 with both.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,000): Fitz is my bonus pick this week since I lumped Fleetwood and Pieters together. Fitz has let us down on ball striker courses recently (MC at Heritage & PLAYERS), but he’s extremely accurate off the tee, from the fairway and his putter can catch fire at any moment to carry him through the weekend. He’s a great GPP play not only because of poor perceived form, but also price and statistical fit. I’d make him a play of 25% or more this week in MME contests.

Thomas Aiken (DK $7,000): Aiken gets the nod this week because of his strong ball striking/greens in regulation game as well as his price. Sure, you could play some of the more well-known names around him, but we’re trying to be different this week where more casual players will gravitate towards those names and Aiken may actually be a better play than the likes of Knox, Harrington and (last week’s winner) Quiros. I’d look to use him as a pivot in MME contests at this price range and target 20%+ this week.

Rikard Karlberg (DK $6,500): I know, I know. What the hell am I thinking taking Karlberg?!?! Well, he barely missed the cut last week and we’ve steadily seen his play increase the past month so I think coming back to a place where he’s had success in the past (2^nd last year). If he makes the cut and makes a run on the weekend he could pay huge dividends comes Sunday. I’d recommend keeping exposure to 8-10% in MME contests this week.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

 

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)