Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- BMW Championship

OVERVIEW
No cut week number one is upon us. Before we get into the course, plays etc., it’s important to note that Henrik Stenson is sitting out this week to nurse his torn labia meniscus. Some big names need to make a move this week in order to play at East Lake in two weeks primarily – Justin Rose (50th), Zach Johnson (56th), Billy Horschel (62nd) Marc Leishman (70th) and guys like Bubba Watson (27th), Matt Kuchar (28th) and Brooks Koepka (30th) need to play well enough to make sure they stay inside the Top 30 so I’d look to take chances on some players outside of the Top 30 in GPP’s and lean heavier on the guys from 20-40th for cash games as they have the most to lose and are less likely of a withdraw (which would undoubtedly kill your chances of cashing in cash games or GPPs this week). The green sizes are some of the smallest on Tour, but play among the easiest to hit ironically so targeting greens in regulation may not be an optimal strategy this week as we should see some high greens in regulation percentages for the majority of the field compared to the last two weeks. There have been some changes to the course since 2012 that will need to be considered this week: Tees have been moved back on holes 3, 10, and 13 (meaning they’ll play longer), bunkers have been added to the landing area of about 300 yards on holes 7 & 10 and a lake has been added along the left side of hole 17 which could play havoc as a closing hole coming in on the weekend.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• Crooked Stick Golf Club (Pete Dye Design)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,497 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
o Location: Carmel, IN
o Expected scoring: I overshot last week’s prediction by 4 strokes, but the course played a bit tougher than expected. I assume things will revert back to normal this week even though the guys have one less day of rest before teeing it up again, so I’m guessing this week’s winner shoots -18.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Jason Day -22 over Daniel Berger [-16]
• 2014: Billy Horschel -14 over Bubba Watson [-12]
• 2013: Zach Johnson -16 over Nick Watney [-14]
• 2012: Rory McIlroy -20 over Lee Westwood & Phil Mickelson [-18]
• 2011: Justin Rose -13 over John Senden [-11]
• 2010: Dustin Johnson -9 over Paul Casey [-8]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT, SG:T2G, Birdie or Better %, SG:P, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – SG:APP, Scrambling, Sand Saves (Sandies)

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STARS:

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,900)
• Course History: WIN
• Form: WIN – 31st – MC – 5th – 3rd – MC – 4th
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 4th
• Stats: 1st – SG:OTT, 48th – SG:APP, 93rd – SG:P, 2nd – SG:T2G, 10th – DD, 1st – Birdie Avg, 6th – Scoring Avg, 110th – Sandies, 74th – Scrambling, 1st – P5 BoB
• Other – Rory was highlighted here last week and gets the nod again this week. Rory is an elite talent and if DJ & Day can win back to back events, I see no reason Rory can’t as long as he doesn’t forget what his new teacher (Henrik Stenson’s putting coach) taught him. He won here back in 2012 after winning the Deutsche Bank Championship so I’m sure we’ll hear endless chatter about that again this week, but if his putting stroke is dialed in again this week he wins by more than 1 shot.

Jason Day (DK $11,600)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 15th – 4th – 2nd – 14th – 22nd – 3rd – 8th – 27th – WIN
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 2nd
• Stats: 76th – SG:OTT, 30th – SG: APP, 1st – SG:P, 16th – SG:T2G, 16th – DD, 5th – Birdie Avg, 2nd – Sandies, 26th – Scrambling, 7th – P5 BoB
• Other – Stop me if you’ve heard this before; Jason Day overcomes adversity this week, finishes in the Top 15. The amount of drama the world number one goes through week in and week out is at an unfathomable level at this point in the year. If he personally isn’t sick, his kids are, if they aren’t something is wrong with Ellie and yet he still “grits it out for four days” and usually plays pretty dang well. He lost strokes off the tee again last week so something is off, but maybe that’s just all the other stuff going on around his family right now. Putting is what gets the circles on the scorecard and he’s still pretty good in that department. I think you have to like his form on Pete Dye courses this year (Win – Dell Match Play, T23 – RBC Heritage, T5 – Zurich Classic, WIN – PLAYERS).

Adam Scott (DK $10,200)
• Course History: 6th
• Form: 4th – 4th – 18th – 43rd – 10th – 18th
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 5th
• Stats: 18th – SG:OTT, 1st – SG:APP, 124th – SG:P, 1st – SG:T2G, 14th – DD, 13th – Birdie Avg, 89th – Sandies, 81st – Scrambling, 31st – P5 BoB
• Other – Scott finished the Deutsche Bank Championship with a very respectable final round 66 to move him into a solo 4th place finish and the hope here is that comfort continues this week. Scott’s won on Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, so even if he’s not considered a “specialist” he does know how to work his way around the courses nuances. The 6th place finish in 2012 is comforting as well, but really this suggestion is based more on current play than anything else.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jordan Spieth (DK $10,500) is an interesting play this week after showing some signs of optimism early on in the week and fading on the weekend. His ball striking was ultimately what did him in last week, but we know he’s solid from the fairway or rough so I’m not too concerned and will be taking last week as an outlier. Spieth could see some low ownership this week and still makes for a very good play in all formats. Justin Rose (DK $10,000) played some extremely poor golf on Monday, specifically the back nine and ended up shooting a ten over 45 (he went out in 34 and was looking at a decent finish before ejecting on holes 12,13 and the final dagger on 16). You typically want to target players who finish strong on the final day, but I think it’s worth noting how badly he burned people on Monday and we’ll probably get him at an ungodly low ownership this week because of it. Rose sits 50th in the FedEx Cup rankings, so he needs to have a good finish this week to play next; gold medal and all. Patrick Reed (DK $9,700) broke his streak of not meeting value when over $9k last week, but it was close. Regardless, his form cannot be ignored as he’s continued to prove me wrong this last portion of the season with seven Top 13’s in his last eight starts including a win and a 5th place finish last week. I can’t fade him this week, even though I really want to.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Ryan Moore (DK $8,700)
• Course History: 10th
• Form: 8th – 7th – 53rd – WIN – 17th – 70th – 46th – 32nd – 48th
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 12th
• Stats: 122nd – SG:OTT, 35th – SG:APP, 32nd – SG:P, 40th – SG:T2G, 159th – DD, 48th – Birdie Avg, 78th – Sandies, 58th – Scrambling, 121st – P5 BOB
• Other – I’m going outside my comfort zone on this recommendation as any time I suggest him he falls flat, however, his recent form can’t be ignored (albeit this is the best he’s played after a win in his entire career). Moore actually comes in as someone I’d consider a Pete Dye Specialist too having placed well at the Travelers (T5 in 2013, T7 in 2012, T2 in 2011). Unfortunately he missed the cut at the PLAYERS this year, and finished T17 at the Travelers, but he was helping out the wife with the new baby and adjusting to the new PXG sticks; so I’m giving him a pass for this years’ performance. His current form is ridiculous and he can shape the ball both ways

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,500)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 33rd – 2nd – 8th – 13th – 43rd – 43rd – 12th – 14th – 2nd – 54th – 11th – 55th
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 8th
• Stats: 29th – SG:OTT, 62nd – SG:APP, 107th – SG:P, 53rd– SG:T2G, 71st – DD, 22nd – Birdie Avg, 140th – Sandies, 157th – Scrambling, 45th – P5 BoB
Other:Grillo-Pad’s successful run came crashing back down to earth last week, but there’s some positives to take away from his Labor Day weekend extravaganza, primarily the amount of birdies he made – 21. If he doesn’t have two blow up holes he’s sniffing the top 15 and getting finishing place points. I love what he brings to my cash teams this week and he’ll be a part of my gpp core as well.

Matt Kuchar (DK $8,200)
• Course History: 54th
• Form: 46th – 64th – 3rd – 17th – MC – 9th – 46th – 3rd – 46th – 4th
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 28th
• Stats: 43rd – SG:OTT, 52nd – SG:APP, 24th– SG:P, 19th – SG:T2G, 143rd – DD, 16th – Birdie Avg, 46th – Sandies, 35th – Scrambling, 42nd – P5 BoB
• Other – As mentioned above, Kuch needs to play well this week in order to keep his spot inside the Top 30 to get to East Lake. It is well known that Kuchar is a Pete Dye specialist and this year on Dye designed courses is no different (T49 – Career Builder, T11 – Valspar, T9 – Match Play, T9 – RBC Heritage, T3 – PLAYERS, T17 – Travelers). I may have been a week early on suggesting Kuch last week, but I still stand by the play. He’ll have a fairly high ownership this week though because of his reputation on PD designs so make sure you check out the ownership projections before lock to make sure you’re comfortable with your Kuch ownership.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jimmy Walker (DK $8,100) played great at the RBC Canadian Open on Sunday shooting a 68. He then started the PGA Championship with a low round 65 and became the wire-to-wire winner shooting 66,68,67. He followed that up by missing the cut at both the Wyndham AND the Barclays only to finish 3rd last week at the Deutsche Bank Championship. The question with Jimmy is not when, but how is he going to treat us this week? I happen to think we get another version of “good Jimmy” as he’s finally over all the media that surrounds a first time major winner and can focus on a much larger prize – getting to East Lake and claiming the $10MM payday (so he can buy his wife a new horse and get exclusive naming rights). Russell Knox (DK $7,800) got snubbed for the Ryder Cup last week and came out flat firing an opening round 73 leaving him all but left for dead, but he came out blazing on Saturday, shooting a 67 to make the cut and backed that up with a 69-67 weekend and a T15 finish. You think he’s still pissed about the RC snub? I sure do, and I think he improves on last week’s performance. Kevin Chappell (DK $7,700) was never going to win the Deutsche Bank Championship, but it was fun to see him lead for a bit. For whatever reason, he treats his lead like an ice cream cone on a hot summer day and he can’t hold onto it before it melts all over the place. I’m not suggesting him this week as a potential winner, but at this price he can certainly try to do something he hasn’t done this year since the RBC Heritage-Valero – which is back up a Top 10 with another. I think a lot of people will look at his results this year and go elsewhere, but this Pete Dye specialist should be on your teams this week.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,600)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 15th – MC – WIN – 25th – MC – 23rd – 2nd – 35th – MC – MC – 74th – MC – 23rd
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 18th
• Stats: 40th – SG:OTT, 135th – SG:APP, 132nd – SG:P, 41st – SG:T2G, 72nd – DD, 56th – Birdie Avg, 88th – Sandies, 22nd – Scrambling, 24th – P5 BoB
• Other – Kim followed up his win at the Wyndham with a missed cut at the Barclays (expected), but finished T15 last week (unexpected) on a course that really didn’t speak to his strengths. This week we get someone who has played really well on Pete Dye designs this year (T9 – Career Builder, MC – Valspar, T14 – RBC Heritage, T64 – Zurich,T23 – PLAYERS, T25 – Travelers) at a decent price and should be considered for both cash & GPP’s as a difference maker in a no cut event. I really hope other players think he can’t get it done again this week, because I’d like to see him at some low ownership after lock.

Zach Johnson (DK $7,300)
• Course History: 12th
• Form: 53rd – 52nd – 42nd – 4th – 21st – 2nd
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 56th
• Stats: 155th – SG:OTT, 71st – SG:APP, 22nd – SG:P, 85th – SG:T2G, 175th – DD, 52nd – Birdie Avg, 54th – Sandies, 40th – Scrambling, 59th – P5 BoB
Other: ZJ plays a kind of golf that I’m unfamiliar with, short and straight, but that’s not a bad way to play Crooked Stick this week (see what I did there?) zach is still fighting to make it to East Lake (see FedEx Cup Ranking) and if he wants any kind of consideration for one of the three Ryder Cup picks he needs to play very well this week to impress Captain Love III. I’ll only be considering him for GPP’s but this price is super low and if he does catch fire he should be low owned in cash games which could be very profitable considering you’re going to need to be somewhat contrarian this week. ZJ’s got the double motivation this week and it comes at a huge discount.

Sean O’Hair (DK $6,900)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: MC – 9th – 60th – 53rd – 55th – 39th – 18th – 11th
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 20th
• Stats: 46th – SG:OTT, 146th – SG:APP, 57th – SG:P, 77th – SG:T2G, 23rd – DD, 31st – Birdie Avg, 1st – Sandies, 64th – Scrambling, 51st – P5 BoB
• Other – O’Hair is THE guy I’ll probably have the most of under $7k this week as he ranks highly in the strokes gained Pete Dye vs average statistic for me, is a solid ball striker, a decent putter and comes in off a very disappointing 53rd place finish after his 2nd place finish at the Barclays. This is a situation where we’re taking advantage of a decent player that’s cheap who has the measurables that lead to success (typically). The one thing with O’Hair is that he usually lets me down when I put faith in him, but the fact that he needs to play well in order to not get leaped this week should bode well for him.

ALSO CONSIDER – Kevin Na (DK $6,800) comes in with #BabySwag this week and finished out the regular season with two Top 10’s. His record on Pete Dye designs this year is pretty impressive as well (T3 – Career Builder, T22 – Valspar, T4 – RBC Heritage) so that makes me feel pretty good about his game, but really that price is too good to pass up. David Hearn (DK $6,700) made a nice jump up the Fed Ex Cup leaderboard last week with his 8th place finish which put him at 59th . He’ll need something similar again this week to make it to East Lake and his game looks sharp again (like it did during his run of 6/6 cuts made from THE PLAYERS to Barbasol). Another solid ball striker with salary relief is William McGirt (DK $6,500). McGirt was somewhat of a popular play the last two weeks, but he missed the cut last week and finished T41 at the Barclays. People have soured on him, so now’s our chance. McGirt is solid for cash game salary relief, but doesn’t possess the large birdie making ability that we want for GPP’s so keep that in mind.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,300)
• Course History: 6th
• Form: 8th – 18th – MC – 2nd – 9th – WIN – WIN – 5th – 3rd
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 3rd
• Stats: 2nd – SG:OTT, 27th – SG:APP, 43rd – SG:P, 3rd – SG:T2G, 1st – DD, 2nd – Birdie Avg, 160th – Sandies, 77th – Scrambling, 10th – P5 BoB
• Other – DJ played pretty well last week and was somewhat off the radar with his Top 10 finish. I like him again this week (shocker) mainly because of his bombing ability, but also with the way he’s been trending since the PGA Championship. Things are clicking again, and we know how that goes when his game gets clicking.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,600)
• Course History: 12th
• Form: MC – 13th – 8th – 25th – 60th – 39th – 14th – 51st – 65th – 43rd
• FedEx Cup Ranking: 27th
• Stats: 3rd – SG:OTT, 26th – SG:APP, 163rd – SG:P, 6th – SG:T2G, 4th – DD, 48th – Birdie Avg, 125th – Sandies, 188th – Scrambling, 4th – P5 BoB
• Other – Bubba’s missed cut last week came as a bit of a surprise as there were plenty of holes for him to take advantage of with his length, but ultimately shooting 1 over on Saturday killed his chances of seeing the weekend. I’m chalking that up as a blessing in disguise for this week as we should get him at a lower ownership percentage and he should be able to bomb his way around this course with ease (especially given his knack for shaping the ball both ways). My only concern here is that he gets too cute with the shot shaping, but he needs to play well to make sure he sees East Lake, and he needs a high finish to solidify his spot as a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup. Double shot of motivation narrative this week!

ALSO CONSIDER – Gary Woodland (DK $8,400) currently sits 21st in the FedEx Cup rankings and seems to be a lock for East Lake, but considering who’s below him fighting their way into the Top 30 he’ll need to have another strong finish this week. His form is still solid (15th last week, 4th at the Barclays) so there’s positivity on the horizon, some may pivot elsewhere in this range because of the perceived “backwards finish” the last two weeks, but really it’s all dependent on his putter which has shown flashes this year. If he can stay in the positive in SG:Putting this week, I think he has a legitimate shot at finishing in the Top 10 and playing in the finale. Both Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) and Hudson Swafford (DK $7,100) are playing to see another week this week. Steele sits in 54th place and Swafford in 61st. Both players need to make a big move in order to play in another no cut event at East Lake and both are long off the tee (Swafford is longer than Steele), both make a ton of birdies (Swafford has made almost 100 more birdies than Steele on the year, but Steele has made less bogeys) and one will be higher owned than the other (that nod also goes to Swafford because he’s cheaper and has the edge on total birdies). Again, I like both players this week in GPP’s, but if you’re looking to fade the chalk in this range, I’d pivot off of Swafford to Charles Howell III or drop down to Na.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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